Bitcoin In DANGER: Price Band ReversalIn this analysis I want to come back to an analysis I made back in March and June this year. I talked about my Logarithmic Price Bands indicator and how it has successfully predicted a BTC top around in the yellow band.
Over two months after the analysis, the price has fallen through the yellow price band again.
It's looking like BTC is losing upward momentum quickly. The final nail to the coffin of the bullish trend would be some sort of -10% or larger drop in a single day. Stocks are also eyeballing a recession risk with the bond yield inversion un-inversing, so it's not far-fetched that BTC can drop 30%-40% from its current value.
The long-term trend is still relatively bullish, but we can't have too many weeks more of this slow bleeding, it's killing momentum and interest, which is bearish.
Ideally, one would start scaling in once the price reached the green area, which is currently located between 18k - 41k. I highly doubt BTC will go below 30k again (looking at the BTC dominance), but you never know.
Bulls have to really start showing some force. Not just a few days of +1% or +2%, but a real >10% break out to stop this 6-month pattern of bleeding.
Share your thoughts!
Logarithm
the trend is strong with this ICE: a simple long term approachWas not planning to do any deep dive research for this one, but the long term trend of ICE is too obvious to ignore.
Despite the choppy daily chart with now and then a small jump, it did grind higher and higher, decades-long.
When dealing with such a long time frame, it's important to adjust the pr-ICE to splits, dividends, and rights offerings.
And let the logarithmic trend be your friend.
A drop deep into the lower channel, without breaking it, provides a once in a decade opportunity,
So one simple strategy for long term investors, assuming you did your homework and will keep following the development of the company:
Buy when under the middle line, hold or buy less when above; keep the first tranche light and periodically add a small sl-ICE.
Natural logWhen fiboretracement drawn from last swing or retracement before low liquidity drop, natural log can indicate turning point around 2.272 area. And when price comes back to fill the low liquidity caps, it uses 1.272 area as support. It gives nice range trades between 1.272 and 0.739 area. Also one could trail stop and anticipate brake of 0.739 and have TP around starting point of the low liquidity drop.
Using logaritmic scalesUsing logaritmic scales might help with understanding the bigger picture of why for example Bitcoin is shooting like a rocket. Take a look at the first image below, the only thing it actually tells us is that the graph is showing exponential growth. So, analysis based on linear scales is not going to help us much.
Pay attention to the blue circles and the black exponential line. This is how they turn out on a logaritmic scale:
The blue circles are now more centered and shows us a more thorough consolidation than with the linear scale. When comparing the first wave up (blue arrow) to the 2nd wave starting from the breakout, there is still lots of more upward potential. However, a correction could mean going back to approx. 3500.
Take a look at the black exponential line from the first picture as well; this comes out perfectly lineair at the logaritmic scale.
Choose "log" at the right bottom of your interactive chart to use the logaritmic scale. Pay attention to the Y-axis to understand the difference.