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LOGARITHMIC

Bitcoin Growth Angle of Market CyclesFrom the origin of Bitcoin to the peak of each bull run, a trend line was drawn. Using the "trend angle" tool I found the angle corresponding to each bull market. Bull Run 1 (2010-2011): 74 degrees Bull Run 2 (2012-2013): 56 degrees Bull Run 3 (2015-2017): 41 degrees Bull Run (2020-2022?): 30 degrees? By comparing the angle of the previous bull run to the following bull run, a repeating ratio reveals itself. Bull Run 1 = 74 Bull Run 2 = 56 74/56 = 1.32 Bull Run 2 = 56 Bull Run 3 = 41 56/41 = 1.36 These numbers could be a coincidence, but seeing how Bitcoin has followed a logarithmic regression that seemingly revolves in 4-year cycles, it wouldn't surprise me if more patterns revealed themselves. So where do we go from here? To see where we might be heading, we simply continue the model. Bull Run 3 = 41 Bull Run 4 = x Bull Run 4 is the bull run that the 2020 Halving has started. As it has not happened yet, we do not know the Angle of Growth. However, by recognizing that the ratio between two consecutive bull runs is around 1.3, we can use this information to calculate the angle. 41/x = ~1.3 41/1.3 = x x = ~30 degrees What is remarkable about the "trend angle" I drew at 30 degrees, is that it touches the crash in March 2020 from the pandemic. In fact it acts as almost perfect support! (light blue trend line) On the other hand, I drew a curve that connects the peak of each bull run (white dotted curve). The area where the white curve and the trend line of Bull Run 4 converge is around Spring 2022 @ $100,000. Hope you all are enjoying this bullish sentiment as much as I am. On a side note, seeing these patterns through mathematics excites me because math is impartial. Using math to map the future eliminates the possibility of a Confirmation Bias finding "patterns" that aren't actually there. The truth is in the math...
BNC:BLXLong
by Riester
Tesla vs. FordFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on an opinion based basis. That being said, Tesla is growing substantially when you compare market cap and share price. However, what most people don't seem to understand is that Ford has higher A) Production output B) Revenue and C) Likely higher enterprise value. Also the invested capital in Ford is 322.61 B. The Enterprise value of Ford is realistically higher . Tesla's realistically closer to a valuation of $125 billion when you look at the 2019 revenue, growth percentage, and expectancy. However this doesn't change the fact that A) The market cap for Tesla is way higher than Ford B) Tesla can now buy Ford if they wanted to C) Ford would have done better as a privately held company. When looking at the log curves for comparing Tesla and Ford, you can see who is obviously growing. At this point, it looks like Tesla annihilated Ford. Obviously alot of this comes down to speculation. Traditional Wall Street that hated Elon Musk is now overvaluing Tesla by at least 25% while dramatically shortening its competitions. Elon is expected to meet production quotas, and they are becoming a trophy in the automotive industry. I'm also bullish for sure.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by gamer456148
#Monthly: Bitcoin, Trends and The Secret StrategyThere wes a couple of predictions recently: we will never see Bitcoin cheaper than $ 5,000 (@tonyvays) and its price will jump to $115,000 (@dan_pantera) by August 2021. We'll see. Wanna show you how these numbers correlate with the chart and where are the nearest points of strength. Candles without sticks, open and close only, log-chart. So, Trends a. Prehistoric trend, formed by lower lows of 2013 and 2015. The lowest point on this trend for now = $1,800. Creepy. b. Trend formed by higher high of 2013 and lower low of 2019. The lowest point on this trend = $4,700 for now. Bitcoin has already hit this trend and rebounded sharply. I bought from this zone, like many others, it was an excellent price. c1. Current global downtrend, along the edge of which the price has been creeping since June 2019. It was formed by highs of 2017 and 2019. The highest point on this trend = $9,300. I closed my long here on April 29, excellent move. Wait now . c2. Projection of the c1 trendline, forming a descending channel, the lowest point of which = $2,800 for now. Trend is formed by bottoms of September 2017 and January 2019. d1. Candle close level 2017 = $13,770. d2. Candle close level = $3,500. In fact, d1-d2 is the range of consolidation. A break downward possibly opens the gates to the hell down to $1,150 level. A break upward creates a spark for a new bullish momentum. e. Local trend formed by nearest bottoms of 2019-2020. The lowest point on this trend = $6,700 for now. f. Resistance line formed by the February doji in 2018 and higher high of 2019. The highest point on this line = $10,800 for now. h1. Trendline formed by highs of 2013 and 2017. The highest point = $62,000 for now. AYS? h2. Trend formed by extremes of 2013-2019, excluding the hysterical peak of 2017. The highest point = $15,000. z. Trend lasted from October 2015 to November 2018. Broken. The highest point = $29,000 for now. AYKM? And The Secret Strategy If you're afraid of enter the market, but want to convert your holy dollars into the crypto for 3-5 years, buy now. If everything becomes (very) bad: 1. Price is $9,000, let's say you invest $150. 2. Price is $5000, invest $250 more. The average entry is $6,500. 3. Price drops to $3,000, invest $600 more, the average is $3,600. 4. Suddenly the price goes underwater to $1,500. No panic, invest again $1,000 more. The average is ~ $3,000, good price. So you invest to the promising asset $2,000 in total. One more thing. Ok, a few... First. The main thing is not the price you buy or sell, but the correct calculation of the position. Don't try to catch the ideal price, it doesn't exist, like a free lambo. Second. Do not listen to those who talk about the frenzy of averaging against the trend: with proper management, you'll take your profit or breakeven. Third. Try to average your enrty near the strongest level. Don't know how to find it? Watch the move and stand aside if price falls down less than 10%. Price squeezes by 25%-30%, you average without batting an eye. Fourth. Watch the market when you stuck in a counter-trend trade. If forecasts go worse and risks increase try to open another trade on the trend. Hedge your position. Fifth. Follow the trend not only for averaging. If the price goes in your direction, increase the position. Yep, worse average price, higher final profit. Requests for TA - in PM. Like if useful. Subscribe. Be healthy. Stay safe.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by antipanicos
2
BTC Log Regression & Fib MultiplesThe "Zero Line" is a calculated Logarithmic Regression of Bitcoin over the last decade. Above the zero line are rainbow lines. Each color represent a specific Fibonacci multiple of the log regression. From purple to red, the regression is multiplied by the common Fib ratios (.09, .14, .236, .382, .5, .618, .786, .85, .9). As you'll notice, it does a fantastic job of predicting price reversals and long-term S/R. This regression has been valid for the last 10 years, until shit hit the fan on March 12-13. I had a hunch that the regression wasn't invalid, rather the "Zero Line" was, in fact, just another multiple in a series of Fibonacci multiples. Consequently, I extended the aforementioned multiples from 0 --> 1, BELOW the Zero Line from 0 --> -1 (-.236, -.382, -.5, etc.). The result was as I expected, the crash was not an invalidation of the regression, but simply an unprecedented move to a lower Fibonacci level. If you look closely, the dump to $3600 tapped the -38.2% level on the nose. As it retraced to higher levels, it touched higher negative levels, such as -14% and -9%. Now we are at a crossroads. If Bitcoin breaks below 8540 we will enter the negative domain once again. If we treat 8450 as support then we will stay in the positive domain a bit longer. Watch over the next 24 hours, from May 1-2, to see if we are going to into the light, or back into the darkness. I linked the script to this indicator below. Stay frosty.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Riester
BTC Log Regression: (In)valid?The bottom white curve is the log regression of Bitcoin's price action since its inception. The regression was broken on March 12 when Bitcoin shit itself to the 5000s. Each line in the rainbow of curves represents a fibonacci multiple of the bottom regression line. The regression is multiples are your typical retracements from 0 --> 1 (.236, .382, .5, .618, .786, etc.). The bottom regression line that was broken does not represent the bottom of the retracement, meaning "0." My hunch is that the white line itself is another multiple, such as .236 or .382. As a result, the "invalidation" of the regression in reality was just another movement between fibonacci multiples. I will modify the script at some point to reflect this. As for the ensuing price action, watch from May 1-2 if it tests the white regression line as support, or it breaks and retests a lower multiple that is invisible at the moment. If price breaks below ~8450 in the next 24 hours, I am shorting hard over the next few weeks.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Riester
#Weekly: Bitcoin and the global trendTurn on the logarithmic graph. Invert scale. Imagine this is shitcoin. Global_trend was broken for the second time (Aug 17, 2015 & Mar 9, 2020). Buy or sell? If you see such things on shitcoin, you buy, increasing your position as you approach the orange zone. Forget the inverted chart. Go back to bitcoin. Observe the downtrend (price peaks are falling: 20k > 14k > 10k > 8k?). Think about the virus, global recession, crude oil's negative prices. Bitcoin is not a hedging asset. Summary: slow short. Cancel and buy when the price returns to the global uptrend (descent below the orange line on the current chart).
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by antipanicos
BUY - HODL - SELL: BTC halving macro analysis for absolute newbsJust put this together to share with noobs. Nothing revolutionary here. Thank you to Harold Christopher Burger, @filbfilb, PlanB, and /u/capriole_charles for providing research which has been the foundation of my perspective on Bitcoin. If you are new to these concepts, read about these fundamental BTC concepts in the following 4 articles: 1. Bitcoin’s Natural Long-Term Power-Law Corridor of Growth - Harold Christopher Burger 2. Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity - PlanB @100trillionUSD 3. The Economics of the Bit coin Cycles - @filbfilb 4. Bitcoin is trading at ~35% discount to its Energy Value - /u/capriole_charles Also the following charts are very useful: 1. Stock-to-Flow-Model (with variance oscillator) - lookintobitcoin.com 2. BTC Charts on digitalik.net Disclaimer: This graphic is not financial advice.
BNC:BLX
by wh1te_r0se
1
Bitcoin Might Have Reached a Long-Term BottomPlease press the LIKE button if you enjoy the analysis The support line outlined in the chart above is drawn in the logarithmic scale and has been in place since BTC’s inception. In addition, the 200-week moving average is outlined in black. The price has validated both the support line and the MA numerous times, the prior three being on: -August 2015 -December 2018 -January 2019 The current weekly candlestick is below this support line and has touched the MA. However, there are four more days until the weekly candlestick closes, so we cannot yet state that the price has broken down below this line. For example, on August 2015, the price decreased way below this level only to bounce afterward and close the week slightly above the MA. The weekly RSI can be helpful in determining where the current price level is in regards to previous cycles. It has been oversold on only two occasions, January 2015 and December 2018. The current decrease that touched the support line has occurred 462 days after the RSI bottom. Interestingly, the price also touched the support line 462 days after the January 2015 bottom and created a very long lower wick. As for the vertical lines, they represent the halvening dates. The proximity to halvening is another similarity between these two cycles and suggests that this is probably a bottom. Therefore, the most probable move from here is a gradual price increase that would cause a weekly close above $6,000 and the ascending support line. The rate of increase would be expected to increase after halvening.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinMaximus1
Tale of the RSI, To Take Us HomeWell, here we are. Can check my previous posts for a daily analysis, targeting 7700-8k range. But.. this is it, isn't it? The sell off all have been waiting for. The time at which the bull run truly begins. Before the halving, fear (albeit controlled) hit the market. Hitting the bottom of the long term growth curve. Business, people, institutions, all ready to buy. This will be interesting to look back on in a couple of years. Enjoy the sell off. Savor the discount it provides us. For we are nearing time to moon. Was randomly looking at this chart on the weekly and the RSI caught my eye. How close to exact it matches the last bull run. High lows, bullish divergence, about to dance up the latter. Maybe slightly more downside to go. But we are looking solid. (Below 6k, though, and run for the hills...fast).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Casey22
BTC triangle and logarithmic regressionBTC Weekly chart. Down Using the logarithmic regression band, it seems logical to place the downside of the triangle at the 0-log line. This seems to indicate that the lowest we should expect BTC to go coming weeks (march, april) is usd 7.5k. The 0.382 fiblevel is at this same height and suggests decent resistance at 7.8k. Up I don't expect a cup and handle situation (not drawn in this chart) based on the stochastic that is coming down combined with high chances of the RSI bouncing on the 55 level. I do not believe coming weeks we will test the upside of the triangle. The RSI and MACD seem to indicate a downward move to the 7.8k level is more likely. Because the 0-log line it is most likely we will just ride on it and then go up to the 9.7k again. Just watch the purple handdrawn line. Nothing fancy, just admitting that the weekly oscillators indicate it's not likely to moon shortterm.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by thedude182