Logarithmic Cycles of BitcoinHey there,
So this chart might look familiar to you, since there have been numerous posts,
regarding the cycles bitcoin seems to go through.
On this chart you will see an extended analysis of this rather popular chart by using percentages.
Most of the data is discussed directely on the chart, so I will not go into detail down here.
Please look at all four written templates, since they provide you with further details and
should anwser any ambiguities.
In conclusion this chart gives a possible price target, including time,
for the next ATH of the coming bullmarket, estimated around Feb-March 2023 at about 150.000$.
Let me know about your opinions on this growth model down below.
Check out my YouTube channel "Enlightened Trading", since I will look to upload a video on this chart soon.
Cheers,
Konrad
LOGARITHMIC
Bitcoin Reasonable Logarithmic Curve Forecast BandsPrediction presentations are similar to coffee fortune.
I don't normally share a template shape like this in any way.
But I have seen logarithmic curves drawn symmetrically just to make the eye look nice, and I disagree with any of them.That's bullshit!
This is my logarithmic curve bands that I found true.
I do not believe in any predictions except macroeconomic predictions.
But I believe that by 2020, Bitcoin will reach 2000 levels.
I'il tell you the main reason if this forecast keeps it.
This is just my little bet:
2020 levels will be seen in 2020.
Note : This estimate was shared more as a criticism than the 2000 levels forecast.
I will never share a template like this again because it has no value.
No one is meant,including me .
I will collect and write all of them in an educational idea.
Only the fact that these kinds of things make premiums can make us overlook the real things !
Bitcoin Logarithmic: Which Trend Will Price Follow?For those of you that haven't seen this chart yet, this is a logarithmic chart of Bitcoin . Essentially the difference between this chart and a regular chart, is that a percentage movement in either direction is seen as the same difference. It allows investors to see patterns that might otherwise be ignored on the regular charts.
As I've identified with the blue and orange lines, the price of Bitcoin is creating a channel that has been respected for 10 years.
If you have seen this chart before, it is mostly tied to people saying how this is the start of the bull market.
I agree that this chart is important for seeing the long term trend of Bitcoin, but we have to asked which channel with be given the most respect.
If the orange line is the true trend, we could see a grind sideways for a few more months and even possibly create a new low.
If the blue channel is respected, there is not much more downside in price.
Whatever your opinion, we will have to wait and see how investors behave. Will they heavily sell into the resistance at $6k moving prices back to the previous lows and possibly new lows as well? Or will bulls push the price higher?
While finding the bottom is a challenging call, I do have a call for the future. I expect the top of the bull market to hit somewhere around the $300k range.
Let me know your thoughts below!
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Never ignore the logarithmic chart to see the futureMany pessimists talk of the 2017 pump as if it was the only wave of euphoria Bitcoin ever experienced and that now the "bubble has burst" Bitcoin is finished. I strongly disagree. BTC has pumped and corrected four times before and this is a completely normal (and actually shockingly predictable) repeating market cycle, just like the global boom and bust market cycle we all exist in - i.e. we are due another global recession because the system is designed for it to happen.
Fundamentally over the last ten years Bitcoin is going up and up and up.
The Bitcoin all time logarithmic chart proves as such, with any corrections all part of the clear upward direction. I can only show the last four years of this here, so you will need to look up the all time version going back to Bitcoin's inception in 2009.
In 2011 Bitcoin went from $0.06 (peaked at $29.60) before settling around $5 = an increase of 8233%
In early 2013 Bitcoin went from $13.50 (peaked at $230) before settling around $100 = an increase of 640%
In late 2013 Bitcoin went from $125 (peaked at $1147) before settling around $250 = an increase of 100%
In late 2017 Bitcoin went from $1000 (peaked at $19086) before settling around $2500 = an increase of 150%
(Note I've put "around $2500" instead of our current possible bottom of "around $3500", since I personally expect us to go lower.)
In any case, it is no secret that institutional money has been flowing into the space over recent months (mostly Over The Counter, so as not to push up the price, yet), and it is they that will fuel the next pump. Last time I checked they know exactly how to play 90% of people for fools to maximise their profits. They will ensure those fools sell low and FOMO in to buy high, while they (the institutions) are doing the exact opposite and reaping huge rewards. To doubt Bitcoin now, is to doubt the greed of the large scale financial institutions.
2011 pump - fueled by early adopters
2013 pump - fueled by early adopters
2013 pump - fueled by early adopters
2017 pump - fueled initially by early adopters, then everyday investors FOMOing in
Next pump - fueled initially by institutional money, then everyday investors FOMOing in
It's also worth nothing that every previous pump has been fueled by BTC... if one of the other front runner altcoins reaches fruition, they could trigger the next crypto pump. i.e. if XRP (despite being in bed with the banks and hated by many in crypto for it) gets real adoption, its value will rocket and BTC will duly follow it up, along with ETH, ADA, EOS, LTC, XLM, TRX etc. The luckiest thing for smart traders is that all cryptocurrencies are still heavily linked to each other in trading movement/value, so even if most day traders are only looking for a get rich quick scheme, they only need any one altcoin project to succeed and all will pump HARD.
The only reason many want more fiat is you can't yet realistically run your life or count your riches with crypto. You can be rich in AUD or JPY, but you can't really be rich in BTC - only its equivalent spending value in AUD, JPY etc. Once the winning crypto coin becomes widely accepted for spending in shops and online, crypto traders/investors will begin to care less about fiat wealth and more about wealth in that specific crypto coin.
There is a global appetite for peer-to-peer transactions and we are effectively all still early adopters. Big players (like Facebook/Whatsapp) are soon to launch their own cryptocurrency and it will be interesting to see if they can take advantage of their market position to introduce (arguably by stealth) crypto to the masses.
If nothing else, look up the " Bitcoin all time logarithmic chart " and think about where you think it is going next. It should be the most exciting thing you look at all day.
Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting.
This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
WMT Long Term GrowthWMT has proven logarithmic action and recently touched the support side of the logarithmic channel. Looking for an exponential move upwards over the next 1-2 years with the revenue growth from the newly adopted health care/clinics. Price target of 165.00 by JAN2021. Hold long and prosper.
Bitcoin Trendline on a Parabolic Scale! Bitcoin trendline analysis on a logarithmic scale. Look how the progression has found the 2017 bullish trendlines again. The noise and bubble have been srug off pretty quickly.
The previous time, Bitcoin underwent large consolidation periods. However, now it has found the same trendline again after 2018 break-down! Interesting huh!
Long Term Bitcoin "Astronomical Targets" "Cant go any lower BRO"Bottom was in few months ago, i don't think we will be seeing 3k Again. The Support and Resistance indicators show that Bull Market started just a month ago along with that MACD turning green, with that Daily 30 and 200 MA cross or was it EMA?
Implications of this breakout for longterm BTC trendSo yes, BTC is apparently bullisher than I thought, at least short-term, because longterm I'm always a BTC uber bull :)
But short-term, I had several reasons to think that a weekly capitulation bar was very likely:
1. Too much bullishness and optimism (contrarian indicator)
2. Number of daily transactions still below ATH (although now finally approaching ATH level), therefore metcalfe price not high enough
3. Crypto fear and greed index at or above 60 (alternative.me)
4. Weekly and 3d stoch RSI on overbought since ages
5. Drying up volume after a strong impulse move down in an ascending triangle
6. Bearmarkets in BTC like to end with a strong capitulation weekly bar on large volume
And most importantly:
7. Cycles getting longer, meaning that the low we had in 2015 in January, would come a few months later, around April-May.
But apparently, BTC does something else. That's why one has to love BTC. No matter how long you're in the market, BTC always makes you rethink your assumptions.
That's why I was thinking, what implications would it have on the longterm BTC chart, if we'd enter the bullmarket now, the chances of which have increased a lot, especially if the weekly candle closes above 4600.
I've drawn two scenarios: One where BTC slows down, every cycle until now was 574 days longer than the previous one.
Of course, we don't have enough data points yet, but if we are to extrapolate this, we'd get the next ATH in July 2023 at around 200k.
But it seems to me that this theory might be wrong, given that BTC wants to continue the bullmarket prematurely, thus, as fast as the last time, with no signs of slowing down.
This would mean that the cycle duration would from now on stay more or less the same: 4 years, strictly governed by the halvings.
In anticipation of the halvings, the price already starts to rise at least one year before the halvings, as it seems.
Therefore we would get the next ATH at the end of 2021 already, but then not quite as high, "only" around 100k.
So, as BTC appears faster and bullisher than I thought, what do you think, will the cycles get longer or not?
Both could work out, although the faster breakout here would favor a bit the 2021 ATH version.
But then again, the logic dictates that as bigger as something gets, the more "inertia" it should have. Guess we'll need new data points for 2019 :)
Now, when is a good time to enter this market?
I personally never enter a FOMO, especially not when all indicators are overbought. If indeed the weekly candles continue green and get above the 5k range, it will be good to enter when weekly stoch RSI
gets oversold again, after a few strong dumpds, i.e. from 6500 to the 4000 range, provided the logarithmic resistance now acts as strong support.
I've written a lot now, but this move here is fascinating, and therefore needs thinking and re-adjustments for the longterm BTC trend might be necessary. Neutral because I wanna see the weekly candle close first to be sure.
ARK/BTC - ready to pumpARK/BTC is looking like a great buy opportunity from this range.
Target: 0.0001920
Blue triangle indicates the current range.
Green box is buy.
Red box is sell.
Blue line indicates major resistance.
This is a log chart.