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LOGARITHMIC

Amazing convergence of BTC supports points to a certain priceI noticed a crazy convergence of extremeley important supports, at a price range, that I think, will be the strongest support in this bearmarket. The first support being the weekly MA300. The second support being the longterm squareroot function trendline. The third support being the line connecting the 2013 ATH with the China dip. The last one comes from an idea by: Credit to him for noticing this interesting characteristics of BTC, which also held in the previous BTC bearmarkets for estimating the low. All these three extremely solid supports point to a price target of 2000-2500 USD. Somewhere in that range. I don't see it going below these supports for an extended period of time. If, then only very briefly with a very strong rebound.
BNC:BLXShort
by SebastianofMoon
6
BTC: Which logarithmic resistance will be the important one?There are two falling logarithmic resistances at play now, which could be important in the coming weeks for determining the reversal point. The one which is obtained by connecting the ATH top with the point where the last decline started at 6500. The other one being a not so steep one, connecting the previous smaller tops after ATH with 6500. I tend to think more and more that the steeper one will be the one where BTC will make the reversal. Reasons: 1. It will reach the steeper one sooner. Weekly stoch RSI has set up nicely to overbought, as I thought it would. It will be at almost 100 overbought after the next 2 weekly candles => Perfect setup for drop 2. LTC did a nice fake-breakout from the log resistance as in 2014, pretending to be super bullish and strong. These fake-breakouts are really dangerous and occur sometimes in crypto, especially in alts 3. The weekly bbands will be narrow enough for a drop already starting in march. 4. The drop starting in march with low in april would coincide better with the increased cycle duration of around 20%. I think we're a bit slower in this whole bull/bear cycle, the more btc grows, the slower it gets. A low in april would be 3 months later than in 2014/15, which would fit this theory. 5. he higher resistance is still quite high, at around 5000. BTC showed great weakness the last months, therefore I cannot believe that we'll see another 1000 USD pump. This would also put LTC too high, LTC would be at 70-90 USD, which would be too high before the drop imho. So this is my view, as always: I could be wrong. I just present what I'm thinking. We'll see soon when BTC nears the first logarithmic resistance, how it behaves, and then we can act accordingly.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by SebastianofMoon
28
BTC bullflag and what to expect in the coming weeksAfter exactly one day of action, BTC wants to make you fall asleep again. I think we won't see a fast climb to 5000, that scenario is for me completely off the table. Instead, the new bullflag will probably break to the upside at some point, and then BTC will bore us to death by rising very slowly upwards, towards a maximum of 4600. It wants to rise slowly, so that the weekly Stoch RSI is nicely overbought at 80-100, and the weekly RSI also rises a bit again, after having been very low. This is of course all in preparation for an epic dump. If we take the magnitude of the last dump, which went without any major bounces from 6500 to 3200, we could easily go from 4600 to 2000, maybe even lower for a very short time. I am just not buying into the "probability for bitcoin bottom has greatly increased" narrative, some traders are suddenly proclaiming, just because BTC is pumping a bit. Reasons why 3200 has NOT been the bottom: 1. Daily transactions are still below ATH, the bearmarket historically only ended when daily transactions were at least 20% above the previous ATH 2. We are still very far away from the halving in mid 2020 3. I think stocks will see another sell wave this year, and since wallstreet is now actively involved in BTC, they will just treat BTC as any other asset, and also sell BTC 4. The sentiment is still far too optimistic imho. Just look at all the people who everytime think that we have reached the bottom. Normally, we have the bottom when there is absolute despair, and even hardcore BTC fans become doubts, and everyone has brutal panic, and a feeling of hopelessness is everywhere, THEN we'll have the bottom. 5. The cycle time gets longer every cycle. It is illogical to think that this bitcoin cycle is exactly as long as the last one. The cycle time increases every cycle, which makes absolute sense, since BTC is gaining more mass 6. The MAs that provided support, increased in number, every bearmarket. In 2012 it was the MA100. In 2014/15 it was the MA200. It is logical to assume that it now will be the MA300 that provides solid support. Well, these are my reasons to remain calm and not euphoric about the recent rise. I'll patiently wait to re-enter BTC, but this point will certainly be reached sometime this year, probably in the next 2-4 months. I am long till mid 4000s, then opening shorts when we near the log resistance.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
11
BTC in the coming weeks, part 2: What supports are importantThe follow up chart on yesterdays chart, zoomed out a bit, to understand the important supports at play here, and why the MA200 is not the support to look at, as the strongest possible support. We see that the probable future MA200, is quite far above the squareroot-trend. A trend, which has stood since 2010, and has been tested again and again. There is no stronger support in BTC than this one. We see that the MA200 is too far above this support. This means that the MA200 moving average is too fast, BTC has gotten a bit slower. The MA300 on the other hand, will be in a few weeks to months EXACTLY at the Sqrt support! Those two supports will actually be exactly at the same price in the next months !!! At around 2400-2500 USD. This is extremely important! I don't think that BTC will be able to penetrate this support, and close below. Even if it would drop to say 1900-2200 USD, which would be below, the weekly candle would bounce back dramatically and close at least at MA300 and Sqrt support, so around 2400-2500 USD. I think this will form the new accumulation floor in the period before the next halving, say until mid 2020 at the latest. In anticipation of the halving, we'll probably slowly start rising before that, in early 2020 is my estimate. I am long until the weekly in BTC is on overbought, so till the mid 4000s. The weekly RSI also has to come up before the next drop, it was very oversold.> When BTC hits the logarithmic resistance, I will go short. The coming months will represent a huge opportunity, so good luck to everyone!
BNC:BLXLong
by SebastianofMoon
11
Updated longterm chart: BTC always bullishWith all that doomsday feeling going around, I thought I'd update my older longterm chart, with updated, more precise price action. It still seems that the bottom will be in the low 2000s area, sometime in march/april 2019, then a longer flat period, before the next bullrun. This time, I looked at the ratio of the previous ATHs to each other, the factors are decreasing apparently each time. If we'd continue this decreas of x2,25 of new ATH compared to previous ATH, we'd arrive at x7,15 increase over the previous ATH, leaving us at a 143K peak. Of course this is not super precise, but it indeed is interesting to see, that it would match the resistance connecting the peaks with a curved resistance line, which also points to 100-150K. So, we'd hopefully go to 3k now, weekly MA200, bounce there, go to 2200-2600 in March/April, then flat, then next bullrun and peak in 2021 with ATH at 100-150K. I chose long on this one to emphasize that longterm, I am always long :) So, patience and always think longterm ;) Then you'll have a lot of fun in 3-4 years time, hehe!
BNC:BLXLong
by SebastianofMoon
17
The importance of logarithmic charts for long term analysesWhen it comes to trend analysis, one of my favorite tools is Andrews' Pitchfork which tends to give really good insight on the state of the trend. I have to admit I had lots of trouble dealing with long term analysis of cryptocurrencies using pitchforks until I tried to display the charts in logarithmic scales. When you think about it, it totally makes sense to use logarithmic scales for cryptocurrencies that are exposed to exponential moves on the upside or on the downside especially when you study long term charts. As you can see, results I obtain with pitchforks applied to logarithmic charts look pretty consistent no matter what the price move is (upward, downward, correction, trend)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by crocotrading
1
BTCUSD on Log scale - Long waited trendline touchFirst of all i am not a professional trader or analyst, so feel free to adjust and discuss my idea.. As you can see in the chart, bitcoin didn't break the trend line yet on log scale (BTC broke it on linear scale!!) This is a moment of truth; whether the BTC will touch the trendline and go long or it will break it to 2,993 USD level I'm a bit optimistic and i think we are going long this time.. Good Luck in your trades guys :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MuMounir
2
Bitcoin long term overview (logarithmic)Time to sobering for btc, in spite of all uneasiness, ordeals, even tears i like to hear the footsteps of beautiful things. Community psychology, bluntly below zero this is exactly perfect time to initiate bull market on the other hand ''Bakkt'' (ICE) news is solidly remarkable and most of news will follow this sentiment. Let's take a look at what is chart telling us. The first cross between ma's witnessed a growth of 7000% within just 2 years However, when second cross occured tremendously held at the btc 6000 level. From my point of view 6k levels were the dip of btc also this ''Tether'' fud brought us to 0.618 fib level. If/when we obtain some upward movement above 0.618 fib level most likely we should wait possible cross between ma's and possible bull market as well according to chart. Frankly, i always adopt win-win market and I want to be on the side every re-tail trader wins so all i need that keep our motivation high and prepare for next bull market technically and emotionally. Cheers
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by The_Saint
BTCUSD resistance viewed in LOG & LINEAR differs considerablyThe two charts show how viewing the current BTCUSD price trend and breakouts are considerably different when seen in LOG scale view and LINEAR scale view. While i use LINEAR scale for the majority of my charting, I often switch between the two scales, especially when there has been limited movement when price crosses one resistance but fails to make the scale of price movement expected. Perhaps some greater movement will take place when BTC crosses the sideways resistance as viewed in LOG scale.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by mmacwj