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LOGARITHMIC

Bitcoin: The problem with longterm trendlines So, there are many charts to be seen at the moment on tradingview, showing this latest longterm trendline, and how BTC will certainly bounce off it, giving us a low of around 4500. However, if we look at BTC historical data, we can see, that bitcoin already had 2 trendlines of this type, which both were broken. The first one starting in 2010 until 2011, the second on was a 2 year trendline from 2012 to 2014. I think the same will happen again. People just give too much credit to these longterm lines, and I think the longterm bitcoin growth is not a line in the log chart, but a square root function, meaning that the steepness of the longterm lines will get lower and lower. A more accurate indicator for finding the low is imho the weekly MA200 line, painted in solid red. This line will offer extremely solid support, just like it did in 2014-2015. BTC will probably rest there for a while in 2019, before it comes back with brutal strength for the next epic bullmarket.
BNC:BLXShort
by SebastianofMoon
6
Bitcoin: The problem with longterm trendlinesSo at the moment I see many charts that draw the longterm trendline from the last bullmarket, that started end of 2015, early 2016. By this trendline, we come to the conclusion that the low will be at around 4500, because that trendline is solid as rock, it cannot break, impossible. However, many people forget that we already had trendlines like this twice. The first when bitcoin was very young, starting from 2010, the second one starting from 2012 and reaching all the way to 2014. But the problem is: BOTH were broken. That is because I think the bitcoin growth doesn't follow one exponential trendline, it breaks the old ones, and adpots for new ones that are not so steep as the previous one. So I think this time it will be no different, the longterm trendline will break, panic will ensue because people give far too much credit to these longterm lines, a panic sell-off is almost certain. So I think we'll go below 4500. But then, BTC will find the bottom and come back with brutal strength for the next epic bullmarket :)
BNC:BLXShort
by SebastianofMoon
1
#Bitcoin long term log scale analysis #btcusd $btc #cryptoBitcoin long term log scale analysis: To analyse the percent change of bitcoin over the long term period. What we are seeing here is two major corrections from bitcoin since double digits prices . 1st one when btc crossed the 250 level barrier. It lasted 91days with a 74% drop in price, in the same period the RSI dropped 52% 2nd one when btc crossed the 1000 level barrier. It lasted close to 406days with 87% drop in price and RSI dropping 71% in the same period to a low of 27.5 Currently we are in the 3rd major correction that is seen afer btc broke the 10k level and faced exhaustion while coming close to 20k We've seen 71% drop in prices so far(196days) while the RSI in the same period has dropped 54% to a low of 41.3 . The 91 Days correction (-74%) was till the weekly 30MA(green) & 78.6fib support of the move till 259 The 406 days correction (-87%) was till 152 level that was a prev resistance level, in the 78.6-88.6 fib region Btc found decent support at the weekly 100MA during this correction period. Currently the weekly 100MA is at 4607 78.6fib support is at 4328 Previous swing high: 4980 will also provide good support
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by rajista
2
Comparing BTC with the 2013 and 2014 cyclesI keep seeing the 2014 bear fractal charts everywhere. There seems to be a trend going on or something. However, many people forget that before 2014, there was another rally, in early 2013. Both rallies ended in a large correction, with a subsequent logarithmic downtrend line. In both cases the trendline was broken. In 2014 it was a failed breakout, meaning that after breaking through the log res, it failed to go above the previous fibonacci resistance (mostly the 0.5 and 0.38 fib levels from the entire rise of the bull move). It then continued to decline. In 2013 however, we see a successful breakout from the downtrend line, leading to the second rally of 2013. The question is now: Which path will BTC take now? I think that BTC will continue to climb to the 0.38 fibo level, around 11500. Then, the usual oscillations, and afterwards it shall be decided if BTC does another rally like in 2013, or fails and continues to decline like in 2014. People who pretend to know are liars, no one knows what will happen. However, one can position himself or herself accordingly after we hit 11500. I will be prepared for both scenarios. Luckily, after the first pumps or dumps, it should be clear which direction BTC will take :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
4
Beyond Bear Market, Bitcoin's longterm possibilitiesHello dear friends, I've seen a lot of charts out there drawing comparisons between the Mt Gox 2013/14 crash and subsequent bear market with Bitcoin today. While this remains the most obvious potential scenario, it is not the only one. The permabull in me might be bias in believing there is an alternative outcome for the coming months that doesn't end with gloom. And as C3P0 would say: That's funny, the damage doesn't look so bad from out there... Looking at the big picture (the logarithmic one), the drop we just experienced since December feels like a scratch. With that said,it may be much worse before it gets better. A lengthy sideways would be as equally painful for the mind, giving us weeks on sleepless nights and false breakouts. One the plus side, one could draw a channel like the one pictured and still see tremendous upside, even dream of fancy six figures number within reach. Mind you, drawing pitchfork channels is also prone to the author's subjectivity. I wouldn't put too much reading into the exact prices. Fantasy or not, you can't be seriously in crypto without having an idealist side. As long as your other side is a realist that keeps you in check, you should be fine :) But wait... As Obiwan would say: That's no moon As explained earlier, and until proven otherwise, the most likely scenario remains a full blown bear market plenty of lower lows and rekt enthusiasts. There is no certainty in trading, only probability and gut feelings. So please please please be careful with your coins. Okay so what? Well as George would say: A long time ago, in a galaxy far away... So let's go on a little time travel and head back to three of Bitcoin's tormented eras. In the coming updates, ill draw a comparison with what happened in 2012, 2013 and 2014. Stay tuned...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by gmgame
14
XMRUSD: Monero Still Looks Bullish After Three-Wave CorrectionHello traders, After spike down on Cryptos we took a look on some ALTcoins and saw interesting pattern on BITFINEX:XMRUSD . As you can see on daily logarithmic scale chart, Monero still looks bullish despite big correction since December 2017, so seems like five-wave rally is not completed yet. On 4hour chart we are tracking wave IV correction, which seems to be completed with potential double bottom pattern, ending diagonal into wave C and also very nice and strong support level around 150. So, we expect that Monero will continue it's uptrend into wave V towards 680 level, just keep in mind that Bulls will be confirmed only above 450 level! On hourly chart we are tracking five waves up into wave 1, which would confirm that bottom of wave IV at 150 level can be in place, so be aware of a three-wave pullback into wave 2 back to around 200-250 level, before continue higher. If Monero from any reason breaks below 150 strong support level, then we may adjust the view!
BITFINEX:XMRUSD
by ew-forecast
4
Steel is looking AMAZING right now!!!!!Hey Guys, Gonna make this very quick. Steel is looking ridiculous right now. It broke out of its logarithmic resistance (extremely hard thing to do, took around 8 years), is at a daily resistance right now of around 51.60, and has fantastic potential to jump up to 57.00-58.00 MINIMUM, 76.00 being Aggressive. That doesn't even include the new tariff Trump put in place! I don't prefer to invest in ETF's, so I've found some very specific steel or steel-related value stocks who have grown with the same correlation as the ETF but at a faster Rate of Change. I posted about one recently, VALE, so feel free to check that one out. There are still a couple of gems I've found that I haven't posted about, so see if you can go find them on your own!! Always try to diversify portfolio's anyway but not in some random, bullshit way. Try to find sectors or stocks with high growth potential and diversify among a couple of them! Steel is a great diversification from Technology so if you have a Nasdaq heavy portfolio, feel free to add some steel to it! I wouldn't invest yet though, if we break 52 with good volume though, 57 should be achievable in no time and the 5-Day MA should begin to slope upward. Remember though, do not, and I mean ever, for anybody, follow their advice blindly. I'm not licensed in any way shape or form, just interested to share my ideas with y'all and start a discussion, so make sure to do your own DD! Any questions, leave them down below!
AMEX:SLXLong
by croganm
2
LOGARITHMIC SCALE FOR THE WIN!I have been thinking about the high volatility of this market and I realized that the absolute scaling does not make much sense. We are moving in between 4k and 20k in the matter of weeks. 4000 to 4500 is not the same difference as 10000 to 10500 while considering the profits. I think this is a mistake that most of us are making while making charts. In such volatility, log scale should be used to reflect the proportional changes. In the chart you can see the downward channel adapted to log scale. Also all the support levels are presented. These are the scenarios that I came up with: 1. a head and shoulders forms after 9k$ and with a strong signal we push out of the bear channel. 2. we bounce back from 8k$ support (from 02-feb). I don't think this will be strong enough to push us out of the channel 3. we bounce from the projection intersection 7k$ (green dash) 4. we bounce from 6k$ lowest of 2018 5. we touch the bottom of channel around 4k$-4.5k$ and finalize(?) the correction. I personally believe that scenario 5 is the most likely as it represents a better correction. Please let me know what you think in comments. Especially about log scale. I am learning so I am curious about opinions of more expert traders. Have a great day.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by kayamemet
2