Get started

LOGARITHMIC

SPY Price Projection: Mid-2025 TargetRevealing Market Trends: Logarithmic Regression Analysis Indicates Bullish Path for SPY In the ever-evolving realm of financial analysis, the search for reliable predictions remains ongoing. Logarithmic scale regression analysis, coupled with potent indicators, has emerged as a promising tool for discerning trends, particularly regarding assets like the SPY. This analysis delves into the utilization of logarithmic scale regression alongside two robust indicators, offering insights into the potential trajectory of the SPY's price movement. It's essential to note that the interpretations and predictions presented are based on my analysis alone and should not be construed as financial advice. As with any market analysis, uncertainties persist, and actual outcomes may diverge from projections. Logarithmic scale regression accounts for the exponential nature of price movements, providing a nuanced perspective on long-term trends. When combined with indicators such as moving averages or momentum oscillators, the analysis gains depth, revealing not only the direction but also the strength of the trend. After meticulous examination of historical data and the application of analytical tools, our analysis suggests a bullish trajectory for the SPY, with a projected price nearing 620 EUR by mid-2025. This projection implies a significant uptrend from the current date, with a potential increase of approximately 20% over the specified timeframe. However, it's crucial to approach such forecasts with caution, recognizing the inherent risks associated with financial markets. While our analysis indicates a positive outlook, market conditions can change rapidly, leading to deviations from expected trends. In summary, logarithmic scale regression analysis, supported by robust indicators, offers valuable insights into market trends and potential price movements. While our analysis suggests a bullish sentiment for the SPY, investors should conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making investment decisions. Disclaimer: The analysis provided is based on personal interpretation and should not be considered financial advice. Investing in financial markets carries risks, and actual outcomes may differ. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Julien_Eche
$EXRD / $XRD HopiumHumans struggle to comprehend exponential curves, but the history of crypto has shown that the log chart it is the only rational TA method for mature projects. If Radix were to match the market cap of Solana CRYPTOCAP:SOL , its price would be ~$7.50. Radix's superior tech, narrative, and ecosystem could 10x that, and at the apex of the bull market 5-10x that again. Therefore, we are giving a price target of ~$200 before the end of the year, with Bitcoin at $400k by the same analysis.
Long
by libertant
ETH - MACRO Multi-Month Logarithmic Target📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈 I've made a few updates on BTC from a macro perspective, but let's take a look at ETH today. What we specifically want to focus on is potential targets / bounce zones, and we'll use the logarithmic weekly recession t get to these targets. From using the same timeframe as the previous bull season, and by using the same pivot points, we get a $20K target on ETH - a possibility for later this year: Shorter and mid-term targets could include: Here's the update on BTC, incase you missed it: _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates📢 👍Hit like & Follow 👍 CryptoCheck BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by CryptoCheck-
1
Ravencoin (Binance)Ravencoin is a blockchain platform that focuses on enabling users to create and trade digital assets securely and efficiently. Here's how it compares to Bitcoin and some information on its technology, history, and growth potential in a tokenized world: **Similarities with Bitcoin:** - **Decentralization:** Like Bitcoin, Ravencoin operates on a decentralized network, meaning there is no central authority controlling it. - **Proof of Work (PoW):** Both Bitcoin and Ravencoin use a PoW consensus mechanism to secure their networks. This involves miners solving complex mathematical puzzles to validate transactions and add them to the blockchain. **The Tech behind Ravencoin:** - **Asset Creation:** Ravencoin is designed specifically for asset creation and transfer. Users can easily create and trade digital assets (tokens) on the Ravencoin blockchain. - **Unique Asset Names:** Each asset created on the Ravencoin blockchain must have a unique name, ensuring clarity and preventing confusion. - **Asset Transfer:** Ravencoin provides tools for securely transferring assets between users, with built-in support for messaging and metadata. **History:** - Ravencoin was launched in January 2018 by Bruce Fenton, Tron Black, and others. It was created as a fork of the Bitcoin codebase, with modifications tailored to its asset creation and transfer capabilities. - Since its launch, Ravencoin has gained a dedicated community of users and developers who continue to contribute to its development and adoption. **Growth Potential of Tokenized World:** - The growth potential of a tokenized world is significant, as it opens up new opportunities for asset ownership, transfer, and liquidity. - By enabling users to tokenize real-world assets such as real estate, stocks, and commodities, platforms like Ravencoin can democratize access to investment opportunities and streamline asset transfer processes. - As blockchain technology matures and regulatory frameworks evolve, the tokenization of assets is expected to become more widespread, driving further adoption of platforms like Ravencoin. In summary, Ravencoin distinguishes itself from Bitcoin by focusing on asset creation and transfer capabilities while leveraging a similar decentralized and PoW-based network. Its technology, history, and potential for growth in a tokenized world position it as a notable player in the blockchain space.
Long
by TrojanBible
Long term indicator to identify Bubble territoryBollinger bands applied on the 1M Log chart create this fjord/valley forms that signal in advance that the peak is arriving and that we are in a big bubble territory. This won't tell you the exact month when to sell, but it signals when we are entering the bubble territory, so you can know whether or not it's still safe to enter, and start selling going up hill. Vertical lines are halving dates just for reference. The red circle is an approximate when the peak will probably take place.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ecairol
Tron is above the neckline of a long standing logchart C&HStill working on a weekly candle close above the rimline of this cup and handle and also the top trendline of an even bigger symmetrical triangle pattern seen here on the logarithmic weekly chart. The smaller and more realistic potential breakout target here is for the cup and handle pattern, the one that’s al the way up at $23 is the target for the symmetrical triangles breakout. Seems improbable that Tron could somehow reach a price as high as $23 when considering how sketchy Justin Sun has seemed over the last few years but that is indeed what the chart reveals. I think the smaller cup and handle breakout target is much more probable. For now though we still don’t even have a weekly candle close above the rimline yet, so before getting too excited about Tron s price action I’d need at least 1-2 weekly candle closes above that trendline…maybe even 3-4. Something to keep an eye on here. *not financial advice*
BINANCE:TRXUSD
by DrDovetail
4
S&P 500 Index (SPX): Long-term AnalysisThe 'Adaptive Trend Finder (log)' indicator analyzes the entire available history and calculates the strongest trend channel. It is arguably the best tool for instantly visualizing the price level from a technical analysis perspective. On this chart, we have applied the 'Adaptive Trend Finder (log)' indicator twice, using logarithmic scale settings, and we have selected the 'Use Long-Term Channel' option for one of the two indicators (red). We adjusted the table to prevent overlap with the first indicator (blue). What do we observe on the S&P 500 Index? We can see that there are two Ultra Strong trends, one starting in the late 1930s and the other beginning in 2009. The CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for the channel starting in 1939 is 7.4%, and for the one starting in 2009, it is 10.6% (excluding dividends). Now it's up to you to draw conclusions... Happy trading!
TVC:SPXLong
by Julien_Eche
Bitcoin Log Chart - Green Range Lows Tapped Twice AlreadyIf you think we are going to get major opportunities to buy much cheaper Bitcoin in the near future, you may be surprised if we don't get the chance. Bitcoin has already touched the lower range (green box) of macro accumulation that we've seen in the past, twice, which is typical in a bear market with the second usually as a higher low. This has already happened, and we are about to exit this green accumulation range box that I have simply drawn on the chart as my prediction of what was to come. Now that we have gotten this scenario, the question is - how much longer does BTC hover around the lower bottom band of this Log curve, until it breaks upward with momentum and expansion?
BNC:BLXLong
by cryptovatsik
3
Fib Circles for LifeThis is my first educational post. This is not long or short. This is just fib circles. This tool is great for non-linear support and resistance. you can also draw horizontal lines at the top of each circle to make your traditional fib extensions and retracements. these can be used on any timeframe just like your standard linear fib ext/ret The biggest rule of thumb is to draw this shape on a 45 degree angle. you can check angles with the info line if a swing low to high in any area of the pa looks closed to 45 degrees. Fib circles are magic. and colorful. and excellent for logarithmic chart. try for yourself!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BallsOfSteel32
1
Avax confirming the log channel breakout.You can see on this log chart that Avax has confirmed a breakout above the yellow channel. On its way to the breakout target it has los broken above an inv h&s neckline. This is a very asymmetrical inverse head and shoulders pattern as we can see the right shoulder is extremely tiny and the head appears to be Siamese. All the same if this inverse head and shoulders pattern also validate the breakout target for it is around $56. *not financial advice*
BINANCE:AVAXUSD
by DrDovetail
$BTC | Bitcoin Logarithmic Cycles and 2024 BullrunIn this chart, which I have shared previously in August 2022, I explain that we had reached our bottom back in November 2022 and would likely put in an accumulation range (green rectangle boxes) over a period of time - this has now happened exactly. I don't mean to post this to prove I was 'right', I do it because it gives some clarity to those long-term investors (opposed to intra-day trading), that we are in fact on the right track to a fresh all time high in 2024/25. Bitcoin briefly traded outside the lower support band of the Log curve, which was worrisome for a while, myself included. However, if we stuck to the technicals and price action, we would have quickly realized it was a deviation (which has happened before) and would prove to be the next best opportunity to get involved and buy long term positions. This chart does not mean it is straight up from here, as in 30k Bitcoin in the near future is not off the table, in fact I think it is very much ON the table. If you're a long term investor, you don't care. You dollar cost average in at those corrections and if we get a capitulation event, ensure you have capital ready to deploy. The reason why I can confidently do this, without worrying about intra day price movement, is I know where the final destination is. Price may hug the lower support band of the Log curve and chop around in the green box, but on average the price will be elevating itself in my opinion, such that the high time frame, macro weekly, monthly) 100/200 moving averages will be in an uptrend from here on out. I like this chart, if provides clarity and perspective, if you don't day-trade then this is the only chart you need for Bitcoin. Vatsik
BNC:BLXLong
by cryptovatsik
2
Bitcoin - BTC Logarithmic RoadmapHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉 I love the logarithmic view of BTC. It gives a clearer indication of price increases alongside growth. Although inflation and value factors aren't physically calculated into the price, seeing the upwards curve makes more sense from a "holistic view" that would include things such as growth and inflation. A logarithmic chart view displays price changes as a percentage of the previous price . This means that equal vertical distances on the chart represent equal percentage changes, regardless of the absolute price level. This is in contrast to a regular chart view , which displays price changes on an arithmetic scale. This means that equal vertical distances on the chart represent equal absolute price changes. With help of great technical indicators, we can use the logarithmic chart as a sort of "roadmap". The logarithmic trendline indicator (log trend channel) shows possible support and resistance zones. The logarithmic moving averages show possible support zones, and help identify if the price is generally trading bearish (under) or bullish (over). Logarithmic Moving averages / support zones : Just for interest sake, I mapped out the date-ranges, as well as how far the price fell logarithmically after each top. You'll see the word "clicks" on the chart. This simply indicates the amount of diagonal trendlines it has fallen. By using this pattern-dedicated approach, a commonality is found which may be useful in speculating a future price. Because if not for past history, how else would we speculate on the future? It's interesting to note that the past 3 ATH's (all time high's) are each lower than the previous if you compare it not to price but to the "click lines". Even the fourth high (the one coming next) will be on a lower click-line than the previous, and that estimate is already over 300k. This is a really helpful way to speculate a future high because usually on a regular-view chart, the zone above the ATH is uncharted territory. You could use a Fibonacci trend-based extension , but this is limited to the cycle that you're using for input points. Logarithmic chart + indicators factor in the entire history of the price. What are your thoughts, do you think 300K is realistic by September 2025? _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
INDEX:BTCUSD
by CryptoCheck-
50
🔥 The Best Bitcoin Price Forecasting Tool: Conquer The Market!Bitcoin has been trending up with time. Generally, Bitcoin has been following an increasing logarithmic path, as seen on the chart. I tried to build an indicator that can give traders an edge in discovering long-term trading opportunities. The top red band has been calculated by plot the cycle tops against time, the bottom green band has been calculated by plotting cycle bottoms against time. The yellow area is calculated as a function of the red period, which has historically proven to offer strong support/resistance. Historically, buying in the green area has proen to be very profitable in the long-tern, especially if you managed to sell in the red areas. Furthermore, this indicator can very clearly predict top- and bottom ranges, as well as the time it could happen. For example, if the BTC cycle top would be today, this model predicts that BTC will top somewhere between 102k - 147k. You can find the indicator here:
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
13
BTCUSD Logarithmic Growth Trend: 155k Max By Mid 2025 Hello all! It has been awhile since i posted, for good reason! It has been a very boring time within the market (as expected). We are currently in this transition phase between bear to bull market, its the time where everyone walks away filled with fear (bottom of cycle) Save this chart... You'll never look at a "BTC" rainbow chart again. This either works or it doesn't. BTC has followed very distinct cycles since its inception These cycles have been dictated by each halving (as shown) When looked at on a logarithmic chart, two indisputable lines can be drawn (tops and bottoms), there are no other ways to draw these lines and each top and bottom has perfectly touched them This creates a logarithmic curved growth area where BTCs priced has always stayed between Using this model, BTC should top out around 155k in mid 2025 & in the bear market that follows, it shouldn't break below 70k. We will continue to reference this going forward but main takeaway, the macro picture is still perfectly in tact and BTC is moving as it should, with room to move down to 20k This is the time to build and GET READY for what's to come Don't lose sight, the green grass looks to be right around the corner! Please comment and like!
BNC:BLX
by traderview2
3
Bitcoin - Using the Logarithmic ChartHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈📉 A logarithmic chart, also known as a log chart, is a type of chart that represents data using logarithmic scaling on one or both axes. It is commonly used in financial and stock market analysis to visualize price movements and identify trends. The main difference between a logarithmic chart and a linear chart is how the price scale is displayed. You can change your display when you rightclick on the righthand scale-pane where the prices are displayed, there you will find an option saying "logarithmic". Using a logarithmic chart is particularly useful when analyzing the weekly timeframe view. The weekly timeframe provides a broader perspective and allows traders and investors to assess long-term trends and make more informed decisions. When combined with a logarithmic scale, the weekly timeframe on a logarithmic chart can provide a clearer picture of exponential growth or decline patterns over an extended period. This weekly timeframe smooths out short-term noise and focuses on the overall price movement. The logarithmic scale helps accurately represent the percentage changes in price over the weeks, rather than emphasizing absolute price changes. This is important because it allows traders to identify trends and patterns that might not be as evident on a linear chart. As seen on the chart, the log indicator (I'm using Bitcoin LFG Model By ARUDD) even shows a forecast and all of the values are indicated in color on the righthand scale. The logarithmic chart helps traders spot long-term trends and key support zone and resistance zone more easily. By analyzing this chart over a macro perspective( in other words looking at yearly views), traders can identify significant price levels, trendlines, or moving averages that have historically acted as strong areas of support or resistance. These levels become more reliable when observed over a longer timeframe, and the logarithmic scale ensures that percentage changes are given equal weight, making trendlines and support/resistance levels more accurate and meaningful. Furthermore, using a weekly logarithmic chart can assist traders in understanding the magnitude and duration of trends. It helps visualize sustained periods of price growth or decline, enabling traders to assess the strength and potential continuation of a trend. This information is valuable for making longer-term trading decisions and managing risk appropriately. In a linear chart, each unit of movement is represented by an equal distance on the price scale. For example, if BTC price moves from 10000 dollars to 20000 dollars, the distance on the chart is the same as the distance from 50k to 60k. However, in a logarithmic chart, the distance between each price level is proportional to the percentage change rather than the absolute price change. This means that equal percentage changes are represented by equal distances on the chart. This is how you can utilize the Log Chart for your trading: Trend Identification: Logarithmic charts can help identify long-term trends more accurately, especially when there are significant price increases or decreases over time. By using a logarithmic scale, the chart can better represent the percentage change in price, making it easier to spot trends that might be obscured on a linear chart. Trade Setups: Logarithmic charts can be useful for identifying trade setups, such as breakouts or reversals. On a logarithmic chart, these levels may appear as trendlines or horizontal zones that have held significance in the past. Traders often look for increased volume or other technical indicators to confirm a breakout or reversal signal. Key Trading Zones: Logarithmic charts can help identify key zones of support and resistance. These zones represent price levels where the asset has historically found buying or selling pressure. On a logarithmic chart, these zones can be identified as areas where the price has touched or bounced off trendlines. Traders may use these zones to make decisions about buying or selling a stock. Long-Term Perspective: Logarithmic charts are particularly useful for long-term analysis because they can provide a better perspective on the overall price movement. They can reveal exponential growth or decline patterns that might be missed on a linear chart. This can be valuable for investors looking to make long-term investment decisions based on the stock's historical price behavior. ________________________________ BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD CRYPTO:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC BINANCE:BTCUSDT KUCOIN:BTCUSDT OKX:BTCUSDT BYBIT:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSDT _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We appreciate your support ! CryptoCheck
INDEX:BTCUSD
by CryptoCheck-
25
BTC Has Reached a Long-Term Logarithmic Trendline Primary Chart: BTC's Long-Term Upward Trendline that Has Held as Support since 2013 (Weekly Log Chart) BTC Appears to be holding right at a long-term trendline that has held as strong support since 2013. The chart above is a logarithmic chart, which can help present a more accurate perspective of price action and price relationships when the chart covers a great deal of price history that spans a significant range of values. The decline since the all-time high has been severe, but relative to BTC's entire price history as shown on the log chart, in percentage terms, the bear-market decline looks less severe than it does on the regular, linear-scaled price chart. On the linear chart, BTC's decline has also reached key make or break levels determining whether the recent corrective bear rally will continue or whether new lows will be reached sooner than later. The Fibonacci Retracement levels below must hold if BTC is to avoid—at least in the next few weeks—heading back to test lows or make new lows. If the retracement levels below do not hold or are not recaptured—specifically the .618 R (which has already been broken this past week) and the .786 R, then BTC likely will be testing lows soon. Supplementary Chart A: BTC's Fibonacci Retracement Levels Near Term But the long-term trendline should also be watched. Given it's significance, it may be retested even if broken, making for frustrating trading for bears / bulls alike. Good luck trading this week everyone. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. CME:BTC1! BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD FTX:BITOUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SquishTrade
10
Trend Following, Guide and StrategyTrend Following: A Comprehensive Guide with a Detailed Strategy Using Three Complementary Indicators Trend Following is a trading strategy that seeks to capitalize on the momentum of financial markets by identifying and riding the existing market trends. By focusing on the direction and strength of price movements, trend followers aim to profit from both upswings and downswings in various asset classes. This article will delve into the principles of trend following, discuss the benefits and drawbacks, and provide a detailed strategy using three complementary indicators, including a custom logarithmic trend channel indicator. Principles of Trend Following 1. Market direction: Trend followers believe that price movements are more likely to continue in their current direction rather than reverse. They look for long-term trends and position themselves accordingly, either by going long (buying) in an uptrend or short (selling) in a downtrend. 2. Risk management: Trend followers employ strict risk management techniques to protect their capital and limit losses. This typically involves using stop-loss orders, position sizing based on risk tolerance, and regularly monitoring market conditions to adjust positions as needed. 3. Market adaptability: Trend followers do not try to predict market movements or rely on fundamental analysis. Instead, they focus on adapting to the current market environment and following the trend as it unfolds. 4. Persistence: Trend following requires patience and discipline, as traders must withstand temporary market fluctuations and stick to their strategy even during periods of underperformance. A Detailed Strategy Using Three Complementary Indicators 1. Logarithmic Trend Channel Indicator This custom indicator is a modified version of TradingView's built-in "linear regression" script that can be plotted correctly on logarithmic charts. It helps traders identify and follow the trend by drawing a central trend line and multiple parallel deviation lines above and below it. It is important to set the logarithmic scale in the settings. 2. Moving Averages Moving averages smooth out price data, making it easier to identify trends. Two commonly used moving averages in trend following are the simple moving average (SMA) and the exponential moving average (EMA). Traders can use a combination of short-term and long-term moving averages to confirm the trend direction and generate entry/exit signals. 3. Average Directional Index (ADX) The ADX is a popular trend strength indicator that measures the strength of a trend without regard to its direction. A rising ADX indicates a strengthening trend, while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend. Traders can use the ADX to filter out weak trends and focus on strong ones, increasing the effectiveness of their trend following strategy. Implementing the Strategy 1. Identify the trend using the logarithmic trend channel: Plot the custom indicator on a weekly chart, focusing on the central trend line and the deviation lines. If the price is consistently above the central trend line, the market is in an uptrend. If it is below the line, it is in a downtrend. It is important to set the logarithmic scale in the settings 2. Confirm the trend using moving averages: Apply a short-term and a long-term moving average to the chart. For instance, a 50-day SMA and a 200-day SMA can be used. If the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, it confirms an uptrend, and vice versa for a downtrend. 3. Assess trend strength using the ADX: Plot the ADX on the chart, with a commonly used threshold of 25 to differentiate between strong 4. Determine the entry and exit points: Once the trend has been identified and confirmed, determine the entry and exit points for the trade. The entry point should be near the support or resistance levels, and the exit point should be near the opposite level. 5. Apply risk management: Use appropriate risk management techniques, such as stop loss orders, to manage the risk of the trade. A stop loss order can be placed just below the support level for a long position and just above the resistance level for a short position. 6. Monitor the trade: Once the trade has been entered, monitor it regularly to ensure that it is moving in the desired direction. If the market moves against the trade, consider exiting the position with a small loss rather than risking a large loss. 7. Take profit: When the price reaches the opposite level of the support or resistance, take profit and exit the trade. Alternatively, consider trailing the stop loss order to capture additional gains if the market continues to move in the desired direction. Conclusion : This strategy can be an effective way to trade trends in the financial markets. By identifying the trend using the channel and confirming it with moving averages, traders can determine entry and exit points and apply appropriate risk management techniques. With careful monitoring and a disciplined approach, this strategy can help traders achieve consistent profits over time. However, as with any trading strategy, there is always a risk of losses, so traders should carefully consider their risk tolerance and only trade with funds that they can afford to lose.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Julien_Eche
SPX Falls Below the Midpoint of Its 13-Year Uptrend ChannelPrimary Chart: Logarithmic Chart with 13-Year Secular Uptrend Defined by Parallel Channel BRIEF SUMMARY: The secular uptrend over the past 13 years is still valid and contains within its boundaries the current bear market, which is at the primary trend level. SPX's price has fallen past the midpoint of the channel. Two weekly closes have been below the midpoint of this channel. This week's close was lower than last weeks, which is not bullish at all, even if an oversold relief rally is becoming more likely. The lower edge of the channel, called the upward trendline, lies at 3000 to 3200 from year end to about May 2023. If this bear market lasts that long, the lower edge of the channel may provide a good spot for the bear to end—or for a much longer-term shift in trend should that line break. SPX has been in what technicians call a secular uptrend for approximately 13 years. A secular trend is an even higher degree of trend than the commonly discussed "primary trend." A primary trend typically ranges from about 9 months to 2 years. Two recent examples illustrate the primary trend: (1) The bull market from the March 2020 lows to the January 2022 highs, and (2) the bear market from the January 2022 high to the present date (9 months exactly). By contrast, a secular trend is about 12-25 years long according to technical expert Martin Pring. When examining the price on a weekly chart from the lows of the 2008-2009 crash (the Great Financial Crisis) to the present date, one can find that the price has stayed within a trend channel, respecting its upper and lower boundaries more or less. Will the channel break to show a much larger and longer-term shift in change? That is a question that no one can answer, but it will be worth noting whether price breaks or finds support at the channels lower boundary, the upward trendline. Recently, price broke through the midpoint of this channel . Last week was the first weekly close below the midpoint. This week followed through with a decisive move lower and a second close below the midpoint—along with a lower weekly low. This is not bullish no matter how oversold oscillators and indicators may be. Speaking of oscillators, what oscillators predicted whether the June 2022 lows would be undercut? None: they all looked like they could be oversold, or close enough to oversold to work for a double bottom. The double-bottom conversation also suggests that capitulation is not present. The widespread discussion of the term is actually bullish, reflecting hopes that the market will reverse its downtrend and put in a bullish reversal formation that will lead back to all-time highs. Is that the sort of sentiment that is commonly seen at a true bear-market low? The five stages of a bear market include denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. Could equity markets still be in denial? Or have markets moved to the third stage of bargaining? With all the talk of "double bottoms," in both equities and crypto, perhaps the current stage is "bargaining." Why? By describing the present selloff in this bear market as a "double bottom," market participants attempt to place the current ugly decline in a positive light. A double bottom, after all, is a pattern that implies a powerful rally after the second bottom, where the rally eventually exceeds the peak between the two bottoms and continues thereafter once confirmed. So all the banter about double bottoms shows that a lot of bullish hopes still have not been crushed. The end of a bear market, however, evidences the fourth and fifth stages of bear-market grief, which is depression and acceptance (capitulation). Sure, a double bottom could lead to a nice bounce because oversold extremes tend to cause mean reversions anyway, and when everyone is looking at a double bottom, shorts may cover and investors may try to pick the bottom. That is why my hypothetical arrow shows a jagged trip to the lower upward trendline of the parallel channel. First a little lower, then higher in another OS bounce / bear rally, then lower again, then up as people try to catch the low, then lower again, and so on. Eventually, price may likely come into contact with the lower edge of the channel—and the long-term secular uptrend will still be intact and neatly contain this bear market. In other words, this bear market at the level of primary trend will not invalidate the secular uptrend, unless price breaks that line around SPX 3000-3100 (considering where the line lies in 3 to 6 months). ________________________________________ Author's Comments: (1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. (2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades. (3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. (4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
TVC:SPX
by SquishTrade
17