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LOGARITHMIC

Trend Following, Guide and StrategyTrend Following: A Comprehensive Guide with a Detailed Strategy Using Three Complementary Indicators Trend Following is a trading strategy that seeks to capitalize on the momentum of financial markets by identifying and riding the existing market trends. By focusing on the direction and strength of price movements, trend followers aim to profit from both upswings and downswings in various asset classes. This article will delve into the principles of trend following, discuss the benefits and drawbacks, and provide a detailed strategy using three complementary indicators, including a custom logarithmic trend channel indicator. Principles of Trend Following 1. Market direction: Trend followers believe that price movements are more likely to continue in their current direction rather than reverse. They look for long-term trends and position themselves accordingly, either by going long (buying) in an uptrend or short (selling) in a downtrend. 2. Risk management: Trend followers employ strict risk management techniques to protect their capital and limit losses. This typically involves using stop-loss orders, position sizing based on risk tolerance, and regularly monitoring market conditions to adjust positions as needed. 3. Market adaptability: Trend followers do not try to predict market movements or rely on fundamental analysis. Instead, they focus on adapting to the current market environment and following the trend as it unfolds. 4. Persistence: Trend following requires patience and discipline, as traders must withstand temporary market fluctuations and stick to their strategy even during periods of underperformance. A Detailed Strategy Using Three Complementary Indicators 1. Logarithmic Trend Channel Indicator This custom indicator is a modified version of TradingView's built-in "linear regression" script that can be plotted correctly on logarithmic charts. It helps traders identify and follow the trend by drawing a central trend line and multiple parallel deviation lines above and below it. It is important to set the logarithmic scale in the settings. 2. Moving Averages Moving averages smooth out price data, making it easier to identify trends. Two commonly used moving averages in trend following are the simple moving average (SMA) and the exponential moving average (EMA). Traders can use a combination of short-term and long-term moving averages to confirm the trend direction and generate entry/exit signals. 3. Average Directional Index (ADX) The ADX is a popular trend strength indicator that measures the strength of a trend without regard to its direction. A rising ADX indicates a strengthening trend, while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend. Traders can use the ADX to filter out weak trends and focus on strong ones, increasing the effectiveness of their trend following strategy. Implementing the Strategy 1. Identify the trend using the logarithmic trend channel: Plot the custom indicator on a weekly chart, focusing on the central trend line and the deviation lines. If the price is consistently above the central trend line, the market is in an uptrend. If it is below the line, it is in a downtrend. It is important to set the logarithmic scale in the settings 2. Confirm the trend using moving averages: Apply a short-term and a long-term moving average to the chart. For instance, a 50-day SMA and a 200-day SMA can be used. If the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, it confirms an uptrend, and vice versa for a downtrend. 3. Assess trend strength using the ADX: Plot the ADX on the chart, with a commonly used threshold of 25 to differentiate between strong 4. Determine the entry and exit points: Once the trend has been identified and confirmed, determine the entry and exit points for the trade. The entry point should be near the support or resistance levels, and the exit point should be near the opposite level. 5. Apply risk management: Use appropriate risk management techniques, such as stop loss orders, to manage the risk of the trade. A stop loss order can be placed just below the support level for a long position and just above the resistance level for a short position. 6. Monitor the trade: Once the trade has been entered, monitor it regularly to ensure that it is moving in the desired direction. If the market moves against the trade, consider exiting the position with a small loss rather than risking a large loss. 7. Take profit: When the price reaches the opposite level of the support or resistance, take profit and exit the trade. Alternatively, consider trailing the stop loss order to capture additional gains if the market continues to move in the desired direction. Conclusion : This strategy can be an effective way to trade trends in the financial markets. By identifying the trend using the channel and confirming it with moving averages, traders can determine entry and exit points and apply appropriate risk management techniques. With careful monitoring and a disciplined approach, this strategy can help traders achieve consistent profits over time. However, as with any trading strategy, there is always a risk of losses, so traders should carefully consider their risk tolerance and only trade with funds that they can afford to lose.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Julien_Eche
SPX Falls Below the Midpoint of Its 13-Year Uptrend ChannelPrimary Chart: Logarithmic Chart with 13-Year Secular Uptrend Defined by Parallel Channel BRIEF SUMMARY: The secular uptrend over the past 13 years is still valid and contains within its boundaries the current bear market, which is at the primary trend level. SPX's price has fallen past the midpoint of the channel. Two weekly closes have been below the midpoint of this channel. This week's close was lower than last weeks, which is not bullish at all, even if an oversold relief rally is becoming more likely. The lower edge of the channel, called the upward trendline, lies at 3000 to 3200 from year end to about May 2023. If this bear market lasts that long, the lower edge of the channel may provide a good spot for the bear to end—or for a much longer-term shift in trend should that line break. SPX has been in what technicians call a secular uptrend for approximately 13 years. A secular trend is an even higher degree of trend than the commonly discussed "primary trend." A primary trend typically ranges from about 9 months to 2 years. Two recent examples illustrate the primary trend: (1) The bull market from the March 2020 lows to the January 2022 highs, and (2) the bear market from the January 2022 high to the present date (9 months exactly). By contrast, a secular trend is about 12-25 years long according to technical expert Martin Pring. When examining the price on a weekly chart from the lows of the 2008-2009 crash (the Great Financial Crisis) to the present date, one can find that the price has stayed within a trend channel, respecting its upper and lower boundaries more or less. Will the channel break to show a much larger and longer-term shift in change? That is a question that no one can answer, but it will be worth noting whether price breaks or finds support at the channels lower boundary, the upward trendline. Recently, price broke through the midpoint of this channel . Last week was the first weekly close below the midpoint. This week followed through with a decisive move lower and a second close below the midpoint—along with a lower weekly low. This is not bullish no matter how oversold oscillators and indicators may be. Speaking of oscillators, what oscillators predicted whether the June 2022 lows would be undercut? None: they all looked like they could be oversold, or close enough to oversold to work for a double bottom. The double-bottom conversation also suggests that capitulation is not present. The widespread discussion of the term is actually bullish, reflecting hopes that the market will reverse its downtrend and put in a bullish reversal formation that will lead back to all-time highs. Is that the sort of sentiment that is commonly seen at a true bear-market low? The five stages of a bear market include denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. Could equity markets still be in denial? Or have markets moved to the third stage of bargaining? With all the talk of "double bottoms," in both equities and crypto, perhaps the current stage is "bargaining." Why? By describing the present selloff in this bear market as a "double bottom," market participants attempt to place the current ugly decline in a positive light. A double bottom, after all, is a pattern that implies a powerful rally after the second bottom, where the rally eventually exceeds the peak between the two bottoms and continues thereafter once confirmed. So all the banter about double bottoms shows that a lot of bullish hopes still have not been crushed. The end of a bear market, however, evidences the fourth and fifth stages of bear-market grief, which is depression and acceptance (capitulation). Sure, a double bottom could lead to a nice bounce because oversold extremes tend to cause mean reversions anyway, and when everyone is looking at a double bottom, shorts may cover and investors may try to pick the bottom. That is why my hypothetical arrow shows a jagged trip to the lower upward trendline of the parallel channel. First a little lower, then higher in another OS bounce / bear rally, then lower again, then up as people try to catch the low, then lower again, and so on. Eventually, price may likely come into contact with the lower edge of the channel—and the long-term secular uptrend will still be intact and neatly contain this bear market. In other words, this bear market at the level of primary trend will not invalidate the secular uptrend, unless price breaks that line around SPX 3000-3100 (considering where the line lies in 3 to 6 months). ________________________________________ Author's Comments: (1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. (2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades. (3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. (4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
TVC:SPX
by SquishTrade
17
BTC Log Scale Macro Trend Analysis.Hopefully the charts explain the idea. The previous bull run found support on the log scale .5 fib retracement. Now we are approaching the log scale .5 fib level of the bottom retracement. IMO this is a make it or break it level and may determine the trend in which BTC follows for the remainder of the year. Bullish idea is a large ascending triangle being built, and the bearish idea being a descending parallel channel that still needs to make 1 more wave down.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TRIP_00
1
Advantages of Using Logarithmic Scale and when to use itThe financial markets are constantly evolving, and as such, traders and analysts need to stay ahead of the curve. One tool that has proven to be invaluable in financial analysis is the logarithmic scale. In this detailed guide, we will explore the logarithmic scale in financial analysis and its various applications in technical indicators. 1. The Logarithmic Scale: Definition and Purpose The logarithmic scale represents data on a chart by plotting the value's logarithm, rather than the value itself. This representation can better visualize exponential growth or decay and provide a more accurate depiction of price trends in markets that experience large price changes. 2. Advantages of Using Logarithmic Scale a. Better visualization of percentage changes: The logarithmic scale provides a better visualization of percentage changes in assets. This is because the scale compresses the larger movements and stretches the smaller ones. As such, traders can better analyze the percentage movements in an asset and make informed decisions. b. Equal treatment of percentage movements: The logarithmic scale treats percentage movements equally, regardless of the asset's price. This is important because it allows traders to compare assets with different price ranges, which would not be possible using a linear scale. c. More accurate representation of long-term trends: The logarithmic scale provides a more accurate representation of long-term trends in assets. This is because it takes into account the compounding effect of percentage changes over time, which is not possible with a linear scale. 3. When to Use Logarithmic Scale a. Analyzing stocks with significant price movements: Stocks that experience significant price movements are better analyzed using a logarithmic scale. This is because the scale provides a more accurate depiction of percentage changes in the stock's price. b. Evaluating historical data over extended periods: Historical data that spans an extended period is better analyzed using a logarithmic scale. This is because the scale provides a more accurate representation of the compounding effect of percentage changes over time. c. Comparing assets with different price ranges: Assets with different price ranges are better compared using a logarithmic scale. This is because the scale treats percentage movements equally, regardless of the asset's price. 4. Logarithmic Scale in Technical Indicators Incorporating logarithmic scale in technical indicators can help improve their accuracy and usability. One such example is the "Logarithmic Trend Channel" indicator, which has been adapted to work effectively on logarithmic charts. 5. How the Logarithmic Trend Channel Indicator Works The Logarithmic Trend Channel indicator is a modified version of the built-in "linear regression" script from Tradingview. The code plots the linear regression on a logarithmic chart, providing a more accurate representation of the trend when price movements are substantial. The indicator also provides options for different deviation levels, which can be adjusted according to the user's preference. 6. Applications: a. Identifying trends in assets with exponential growth or decay: The Logarithmic Trend Channel indicator can be used to identify trends in assets with exponential growth or decay. This is because the indicator provides a more accurate representation of the trend when price movements are substantial. b. Analyzing long-term price movements: The Logarithmic Trend Channel indicator can be used to analyze long-term price movements in assets. This is because the indicator takes into account the compounding effect of percentage changes over time, which is not possible with a linear scale. c. Setting support and resistance levels based on percentage changes: The Logarithmic Trend Channel indicator can be used to set support and resistance levels based on percentage changes. This is because the indicator provides a more accurate representation of percentage movements in the asset's price. Conclusion: The logarithmic scale is a powerful tool in financial analysis, providing a more accurate representation of price trends and movements, especially for assets with significant price changes. By incorporating the log scale into technical indicators, such as the Logarithmic Trend Channel, traders can better analyze market trends and make informed decisions.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by Julien_Eche
BTC : 3Day Heikin-Ashi Log + 1Day 300 SMA + Fib ChannelHere we take a look at BTC heikin-ashi candles on a 3 day timescale, the 1 day simple moving average with a length of 300, and a fibonacci channel, all on the logarithmic price scale. Of note, is the candle behavior in relationship to the 300 SMA, before and after BTC reaches its' peak during the 2013 and 2017 bullruns, and how that behavior can be analyzed and applied to the current bull run. We see that leading up to the 2013 peak, as well as the 2017 peak, BTC stays above the 300 SMA as the price rises. We also see that after both of the 2013 and 2017 peaks, BTC drops below the 300 SMA : Now, if we look at our current price action, we can see that BTC has dropped and hit the 300 SMA, and has managed to stay above it : If we look at April 2013, we see BTC came close to hitting the 300 SMA after a significant peak, but it continued to rise into late 2013, when it finally concluded its' bullrun, after which, BTC did drop below the 300 SMA : One may conclude that if BTC drops below the 300 SMA during this current bull run, we can assume that the current bull run is over, and it may be some time before the we see another bull run. If BTC manages to stay above the 300 SMA, we can assume that the current bull run will continue on (like it did in summer 2013) most likely until the end of the year, and reach another new ATH. Thanks for checking out the chart! Feel free to like and/or comment... it is much appreciated. // Durbtrade
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Durbtrade
6
Bitcoin longterm chartI thought it was time to make a longterm chart, with all these wrong charts going around, hehe. They are wrong because bitcoins support and resistance lines are NOT linear in the logarithmic chart. I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025. I am a bitcoin longterm bull, but one has to remain realistic. The cause of these growth cycles are the halvings, which lead to a supply shock with a subsequent rally. Every time. These are all guesstimates of course, but I think this chart is realistic. The very longterm goal of BTC, in 2030+, is at around 1 million USD imho. It won't go much higher afterwards, it can be seen as the final asymptotic price. The next peaks should be at around 100k in 2022, and around 300k in 2026. I hope this chart helps people understand the longterm growth dynamics of BTC :)
BNC:BLX
by SebastianofMoon
93
25 Metrics to a Perfect Trading Journal First let’s begin with… What is a trading journal? This is a log book where you plot every trade you make with the metrics to show how your portfolio is performing and will continue to do so. I’m going to briefly list the items you’ll need to track your trading performance. 25 Items to plot in your trading journal… The trade No. The market traded (stock, index, crypto…) The entry date for your trade The exit date for your trade No. of days held Current portfolio value Max risk per trade (currency) Max risk % per trade Initial margin per instrument (CFD Spread betting) No. Volume traded The reason for entry Total margin paid Type of trade (Long / Short) Entry price Take profit price Stop loss price Closing price Risk in trade (Entry – Stop loss) Move in trade (close) Interest costs Brokerage costs Gearing Trade exposure (In and Out) Gross P+L Net P+L Don’t waste your time with calculations. Make sure you have the journal and log book with all formulas in each item. … When you record these details, you’ll be able to keep up to date with whether your portfolio is profitable and sustainable for the long run and where it’s lacking. Hope that helps!
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
AAPL Update: Log Chart Reveals Key Levels and CluesPrimary Chart: Parallel Channel Defining Downtrend from All-Time High, Uptrend Line from Covid Lows Through June 2022 Low, Fibonacci Levels AAPL's logarithmic chart reveals some interesting technical facts that are not as apparent on a linear / arithmetic chart. 1. AAPL remains in a trading range. This range developed and persisted over the past month. The top of the range is about $157 and the bottom of the range is about $134 (lows on October 13, 2022). The breakout of this range may determine the next multi-week trend leg in AAPL. Supplementary Chart: 65m Chart Showing Chop Range for AAPL over Past Month 2. Uptrend Line from March 2020 through June 2022. First, consider the uptrend line (light blue) from the Covid 2020 lows that connects through the June 2022 low. On October 12, 2022, SquishTrade discussed this trendline, showing it on both linear and logarithmic charts. This TL formed the lower boundary of a very large multi-month triangle. SquishTrade's previous AAPL post forecasted whipsaws around this trendline stating on October 12, 2022 as follows: "But when multi-month triangles like this break, and when multi-year trendlines like this break, it should be expected this could be a process rather than a quick event, assuming the trendline is valid. In part, this is because multi-year trendlines and multi-month triangles do not break and dissipate easily. The lower trendline of the triangle pattern is a multi-year trendline from the Covid lows to the present. Price does not always just break right through such an important level. On occasion, it can slice right through a level deemed consequential and long-term. But often when encountering a very important longer-term level, price can tag it, then break it repeatedly in both directions, whipsawing above and below the line a few times before following the ultimate direction it will take. Or it can break the line and then retest it from underneath a couple times as well." On the Primary Chart for October 12, 2022, SquishTrade stated: "watch for a retest or whipsaw moves around this line." The expected whipsaw has occurred to an even greater degree than was expected. Notice on today's Primary Chart the black line showing seven breakouts above and below the line. Price has been whipsawing back and forth around this TL for more than four weeks (since September 29, 2022). On the log chart, price seems to be making progress, however, back to the downside. But with the long lower wick on the candle for November 4, 2022, one might expect yet another retest or whipsaw before moving lower. If AAPL were to retest this TL, the retest would be at approximately 152.70 if it were to occur next week—the line slopes, so the retest resistance level increases with each day that passes. 3. Major Support and Target Areas in the $128-$131 range . The immediate support zone arises at the base of the parallel channel, currently at $130-$131. The VWAP anchored to the 2020 low lies around $128.03 over the next few days. SquishTrade forecasts that AAPL will reach $128-$131 within the coming weeks or couple months though this will not likely happen in a straight line given the choppy price action in both AAPL and equity indices like SPX and NDX. This $128-131 level shows confluence with the YTD price low at $129.04 as well as a key Fibonacci level at $133. 4. Major Support and Target Areas in the $114 to $122 range. If this $128-131 target is reached and violated to the downside, then further downside targets will be considered as viable and effective. The next lower targets are (i) a Fiboancci projection at $122.25, (ii) a long-term Fibonacci retracement at $118.02 (.50 Fib retracement of the 2020-2022 rally on a linear chart), and (iii) another key Fibonacci retracement at $114.07 (.382 Fibonacci retracement of 2020-2022 rally on a logarithmic chart). This area should be considered as a significant support / target zone from $114 to $122.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by SquishTrade
46
down a little or up a lotI suspect crypto entered peak despair, after Celsius, BlockFi, 3AC, FTX, etc. self destructed. It’s actually a net positive when these scams go under. It purges derivatives that dilute the supply from the market. There are still a few more fractional reserve banking scams that I’d like to see walk the plank, but the lion’s share has already been nuked. So I think we could take one more wick down to the 100 MA, which correlates with the top of the 2019 squeeze at about 13k-ish. What makes me think the bear could be dead, is with all the ballyhoo over FTX drama, the drop was much smaller than the Terra Luna rug.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by KekistaniCentralBank
The unknown obvious: when to use log-scaleThere's a semi-wide-spread snake oil "wisdom" in near-quant circles that you need to use log-charts/log-scale/log-transform all the time. No, you need to use it only when the range of the data been processed exceeds one order of magnitude (data maximum at least 10 times data minimum). Before dat, no-no! Please, don't stabilize the variance unless it'll asks you to. Now bringing your attention to the important detail -> data 'being processed'. It means that you don't push the log button when your chart's arbitrary time range is 456-986755. You push dat button when the particular domain (part of the chart) you analyze does exceed one order of magnitude. P.S.: disregard the studies applied, it's all R&D
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by gorx1
Epic Fail of Bitcoin in logarithmic Regression [Weekly]Hi everyone, There has been many references to the weekly logarithmic regression of Bitcoin that claimed it never failed from the time of its creation by Satoshi Nakamoto. it has been promoted on social media for a long time by serious advocates such as PlanB or many others on twitter. But as you can see on the chart, in November of 2022 the logarithmic regression failed to support the price for the first time in Bitcoin history. Bitcoin is relatively a new class of asset in comparison with Gold for instance and I believe one should be very cautious with it in regard to its short history, especially in times of a possible recession. FYI, Logarithmic regression is a type of regression used to model situations where growth or decay accelerates rapidly at first and then slows over time. more in-depth elaboration of its math and logic is available at : heartbeat.comet.ml Please manage your risk responsibly and make informed decisions. Good luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Arzesh
6
How I see BitcoinHello everyone, this is how I see Bitcoin in the long run. Looking at the weekly timeframe, I am still bearish on Bitcoin right now as it is still trading below the 200-EMA since June 16th, 2022. Also, we're currently in a technical recession after the FED of Atlanta has estimated a negative -2.1% for Quarter 2 of 2022. We already had a negative -1.6% decline for Quarter 1 and now after the FED of Atlanta released their estimates, we're definitely in the technicalities of a recession. If you don't believe we're in a recession right now, just look awful the big retailers did for their Quarter 1 earnings. Walmart and Target did terrible as their revenue went down from consumers cutting their spending due to inflation and of course the cost of gas/diesel, affecting truckers and consumers. Look at Target, when their Q1 earnings were released on May 18th, 2022; they had an excessive inventory as Target highlighted that there is less customer traffic in their stores, meaning that consumers are not spending as much simply because everything is getting too damn expensive, due to inflation! As consumers cut back on their spending, it will obviously affect the GDP. Just look at the consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. It's at the lowest it has ever been recorded. It's not just consumer spending, look at how many times the 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have inverted this year. The 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have inverted multiple times in February, March, April, May, and today, as of typing this right now. Many tech companies like Coinbase, Meta, Tesla, etc., have all stopped hiring people since May of 2022, in order to cut back on Salaries and Wages Expenses, due to inflation and bad market sentiment. I could keep going on and on as there are many indicators of a recession. Obviously, we still have to wait for an official announcement from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 28th, 2022; whether we're in a recession or not. How does this all relate to Bitcoin? Well, for the past 4 months, every time the CPI data was released, Bitcoin always had a negative reaction to it. As inflation increases, this will cause the markets to dip even further, meaning that investors will draw away from their investments and will be on cash instead during a recession. Since we are in technicalities of a recession due to the FED of Atlanta, expect the stock market to have a negative reaction, causing the price of shares to go down, which in result, will cause a negative reaction to the crypto market in the short-term. So July 13th (CPI Data Release) and July 28th (Real GDP Data Release) will be two important days for July 2022. In the meantime, just because I am bearish on Bitcoin doesn't necessarily mean it's the end of the world. I am still bullish on Bitcoin for the long run. Just zoom-out and relax. Disclaimer: (I am not a financial advisor! Always conduct your own research before investing.)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by brandonreymejia