REALISTIC MACRO PICTURE FOR BITCOIN - AND THE DECISION POINTThis chart gives a lot of macro technical outlook!
If we mark the CYCLEs on the BTC over a log monthly chart, we can see that they connect and mark the top pretty good. This is of course common for all.
Now, let's add the 3 more ARCs to mark the bottoms. Now, it starts to get a bit out of common.
When we look at it, everytime after the TOP, BTC dropped below the ARCs and then swinged above it as a reaction. Then retraced back to 1.0 FIB or a bit below and later on started a parabolic run.
I know that most of the people doesn't want to accept that the bull market is over. However, let's apply the same here for a moment. Currently, we are under the ARC. We may even see a wick below to 26-27k region but hold above and then start swinging back above the ARC and push all the way to 55-60k. At that point, just as everyone is expecting an ATH, Whales (unfortunately that's what they do) push back again to 30-40k region, touching 1.0 FIB, consolidate there for a while and then start the next parabolic run. That will take us to 140-150k range in the beginning of 2024.
In this context, we will never close below 30k on monthly chart but will have a prolonged accumuation/consolditaion period for a couple of years. I again know that this is frustrating but this chart is signalling that. The battle with the central banks and IMF will not be easy Friends, it will be the greatest of all.
FOR THE GOOD NEWS;
As we come to 2024 with a price range around 140-150k, after the NEXT HALVING around Jun-Jul 2024, BTC will make a decision. At that point, i think pretty much every battle will be won against regulations and central banks/IMF. Adoption will explode!!! These will trigger a NEW ''S'' CURVE START and we'll break the expected cycle top and blast all the way to a Million (or more) mark.
Let me know what you think
