logarithmic chart of the Maticin logarithmic scale, the price hit the bottom of the ascending parallel channel in 4h time-frame. by looking at the bottom of the channel closely, one can see that Matic breaks the descending trend line and supported very well by its trend line.
LOGARITHMIC
Is 73k a possible top?? Confluence is showing this possibilityAfter breaking the ATH it is evident that this is no longer an ABC correction as it had finished at 28.8k as a likely Wave 4 on the macro.
Now a possible ending 5 Wave on the macro or a possible newer Wave 3 is in play.
While trying to look for a new target there is a lot of confluence in both the 1W time frame and the 4H time frame that points to the 73k area.
An explanation to what I'm showing:
- The top-left chart shows the diminishing return logarithmic curve that has been show by many and has proven over the history of bitcoin and is currently its strongest resistance. The price is approaching this area again and if hits before this Weekly candle or the next it will hit around 73k.
- This to me is the strongest example of thinking 73k could be a top just because this log curve has the longest history of all shown here.
- The bottom-left chart shows the current macro Elliot Wave (I currently think after breaking the ATH today we are in Wave 5 now) and a possible fractal that shows the current target.
- Wave 5 could possibly be over now as the 0.618 has been hit, but for me when I do Elliot Waves I always will believe the 0.786 to be the MAX target for a 5 wave
- What is interesting here is the similarities of the 42k -> 28.7k -> 58.4k move of the past compared to the current move from 53k -> 39.6k to our current price now. It does show a bit better on a Daily chart.
- Pulling out a fractal of the past and matching with with the present as shown does target the 73k area as well. This is between the 0.618 & 0.786 so have to believe this as a possibility as well
- The top-right chart shows the current 4H Elliot Wave. Though this could be interpreted differently, it does appear to me that we are in Wave 5 on that time frame and it as well has a target of ~73k which is the golden pocket area.
- The bottom-right chart shows the 4H on a log chart. I have created a log curve of the entire 53k retrace to 39.6k and the current move up. I look to this as a possible timing as to when approx. the 73k top may occur and the start of the possible fallout that may be following but is pure speculation. I do these curves as they are good at finding reversals.
If this is true then bitcoin will be due for a very long-term bear market as a large A,B,C style correction will be likely to follow. I do not have targets yet as I rather see this play out first, especially because breaking the ATH changes all my prior targets.
What would invalidate what I am showing here is a break of 77k (a Weekly close not a wick) which would break the 0.786 of the Wave 5. If that happens then my opinion would be we are in Wave 3 of a new bullish impulse and a higher ATH will come.
I myself am bearish towards the 100k narrative so I feel this is quite probable.
I do believe though that a new possible ATH at 73k will take some time for any long-term bearish target to hit as this current move that started at 29k will take time to distribute. Plus, looking on the Daily RSI it shows no bearish divergences as of yet, even broke 75 which has been resisting for some time now.
I would say a bounce from an initial drop would be above or around 50k and then we would have to re-evaluate once we see what the next move is as even a 73k top could be a possible Wave 3 too.
Would not be surprised to see a new Wyckoff distribution happening also, even if this is a Wave 3. Always have to be mindful of that as this is the type of scenario where they can trap a lot of bullish retail buyers in the end.
Either way things have gotten far more interesting for bitcoin in the coming weeks and months...
***Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional/expert and all ideas from me are all speculation based off of my own research. Please do your own research as well as I am not responsible for others when it comes to their financial decisions.***
BTC : March 12 2020 Log Line
Here is a trendline from March 12 2020 to October 7 2020
extended on a logarithmic price scale
using 12Hour heikin-ashi candles :
March 12 2020 was the lowest price point of 2020,
and forms the beginning point for the trendline.
Using that point,
we can form the lowest unbroken support trendline
before the post-ATH drop.
Let's highlight our current battle, and then zoom in a bit :
Extending the line to the right shows that BTC broke below the trendline numerous times, the furthest point below happening about 3 weeks into July 2021.
1Hour view :
It appears that horizontal resistances may not be the only factor in the current battle.
5Minute view :
Of note,
I would consider this line as the middle of a ascending range or channel of influence,
given that it is formed using rather dated (but important) price points.
Therefore, I'll be watching for an obvious upward price launch not just at the line itself, but also from the surrounding area to signify that the line has been broken to the upside.
And if we do get an obvious break above the line, perhaps it will resume its previous role of ascending support?
Let's see what happens.
// Durbtrade
BTC Price will prop break ATHIf so, a major breakout will ensue. First price target 120k, major resistance based on upper trending. If break through that resistance, next price target is 400k.. Expect to reach by early 2022.
Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression ShortBitcoin logarithmic regression bear cycle short. (Macro target: $16000).
BTC 180K-200K top in Q2-Q3 2022?Major trendline resistance was broken recently at 51k level.
We may be in a mid-cycle peak on to the way up to 180k-200k until ~Aug 2022.
Would still remain cautious atm as the traditional markets are undergoing a major 100 year-cycle correction that could drag $BTC with it.
But, there is a chance that every asset on the traditional market will get tokenized, possibly decoupling bitcoin from it from here on out.
ETH logarithmic trendEthereum logarithmic diagram...
This is the fate of most digital currencies !!!
BTC forming the biggest cup and handle in its history This is a log chart, so may look a little different....but take a look a that cup and handle setup!
Extra Long Cycle with a Triple Top? Log chart for total market cap showing how an extra long cycle could play out. Careful hodling when prices are along the top resistance levels. Unless a breakout and confirmation happens, remember it's nice to trade for some stablecoins when you're in lots of profits. Personally, I think the old "boom and bust" rhythm will begin to mellow out and cycles won't be so extreme anymore, but still plenty of opportunity to do well.
Why Log charts can be helpful in the crypto marketAs you can see, previous peaks almost disappear and become irrelevant as each new bull move occurs
Log charts provide a more detailed perspective of price action
Its crazy to think ENJIN could be $140, if that $140 price was hit, would tower over the current peak which is already massive
Total Market Cap – Projection ReviewIt took 7 years of market ups and downs, from 2010 to 2017, for the crypto complex to reach a total Market Capitalisation of $761B. However, a similar amount ($741B) has been added in the past 3.5 weeks. Think about that a little, as much new capital has been added to the crypto markets in 4 weeks as existed in the market at the 2017 peak!
So time for a review of my previous study to recalibrate for the extended correction and the market cycle.
Market Outlook WeeklyTVC:SPX using a log chart I channeled the market since it's inception. The top of the channel (in red) is exclusively where the major stock market crashes have happened. The bottom channel (in green) is "crash free." The bold purple line is where 3 of last 4 market crashes have happened. Since the "Nixon Shock," $spx has failed to breach this line, except during the "dot-com bubble." U.S. inflation rates are rising, the Buffet Indicator (divide by US GDP on the chart) is at an all time high, and the CAPE (SPX ECY on chart) is starting to. rise, like it has at the top of every crash. However, a major crash has not when CAPE is above that black line, excluding COVID.
Note: Not claiming a crash now, just saying there are some warning signals and to be cautious.
How to use "Auto Trendline and Breakout Alert" IndicatorIn this tutorial, we will learn how to use the "Auto Trendline & Breakout Alert (Linear / Log)" indicator.
Note: You can find it in the scripts section of my profile
Auto Trendline & Breakout Alert(Linear / Log) Full-Version by BobRivera990
Overall Introduction
This indicator is the best tool for breakout traders.
Drawing and evaluating the trend lines of multiple charts in different time frames is a very time-consuming and tedious task. In addition, being aware of breakouts in the shortest possible time requires constant monitoring.
With this tool, you can draw and classify trend lines in a fraction of a second and by placing an alert on any chart, you can receive notifications about breakouts, wherever you are.
The classification of trend lines is done based on the reaction of the price chart to the trend lines and the analysis of the trading volume .
This indicator is designed to reclassify trend lines with each reaction of the price chart. These lines are classified into 6 levels and these levels are distinguished by different colors. Thus, any touching or crossing of the price chart can make a difference.
Features
This indicator is designed for use on both linear and logarithmic scales. It works linearly by default. If you are using a logarithmic chart, enter the settings menu and set the chart scale parameter to “Log”.
The indicator is equipped with the volume status tool to identify and avoid false breakouts. Note that you can't completely avoid false breakouts, but you can minimize risk and loss. I have already published volume status as a separate script.
Several filters are provided to customize alerts. You can limit alerts based on the level and strength of broken trend lines , volume status, and type of breakout (Cross-Over, Cross-Under, or both).
The last breakouts panel gives an overview of the current market situation. You can activate it in the settings menu. the figure below shows the panel:
How to setup
There are many parameters in the settings menu, but two are more important. One is “Chart Scale” and the other is the “Max Operational Range Length".
Set the “chart scale” parameter according to the chart, otherwise the trend lines drawn by the indicator do not match the price chart.
If you are using a linear chart, select the "Linear" option or if you are using a logarithmic chart, select the "Log" option.
Max Operational Range Length Limits the range of the price chart that is processed by the indicator.
By increasing this parameter:
The strength and durability of the trend lines increases.
The number of breakout signals decreases.
The importance of breakout signals increases.
The indicator processing load increases.
The best range for "Max Operational Range" is from 300 to 1200,Change it until you get the best view possible.
Also by changing the "Filter" parameter from 1X to 5X, you can reduce the clutter in the chart.
The following figure shows the results of correct and incorrect settings:
Use it well...
Bitcoin's Descending Triangle Target: $24K (Mind The Gap)Bitcoin's imperfect descending triangle currently targeting a measured move to $24K volume support zone. The $20K level of VPVR strong support also lines up with the logarithmic growth support trend-line. Short term looks bearish, long-term looks like a buy the dip opportunity before 6 figures.
Never underestimate the accuracy of Bitcoin's descending triangle measured move targets, if the breakdown is confirmed:
For alternative broadening wedge theory and bullish buy the dip scenario, see here:
BTCUSD: Over-extended beyond mid-level of logarithmic curveAfter passing the mid-level by February 2021 of the current cycle, with an anticipated top around December 2021, are we over-extended in the current bull market cycle? Notably each cycle from lower band of the logarithmic curve to the upper band has increased in velocity in each movement. I still believe in $100K+ by the end of 2021, but $50K already?
Logirthmic Curve & Network Growth : $100K in 2021?
ETH log(1w) Bouncing off of trend lines/MA testI have been following these trend lines on the ETH chart (LOG ONLY) and they seem to be following very well, similarly to how BTC is to the wyckoff accumulation. I drew two arrows, for two different scenarios I believe are equally as likely. I do not believe we are headed to break-down of the channel, let alone test the Moving Average (orange line) in the near future. Ether is used by enterprises and institutions are adopting it like no other. Smart contracts and Blockchain dApps are the future and will be ran on ETH2.0, FLR network, and maybe some others. NFA.
Bitcoin - logarithmic - divergence - monthlyEverybody tell me. You have to use logchart to see the real worth of Bitcoin.
There is so much air up to 1 million…
Ok, I try logchart
BTC HTF Log View + Fib Time for Jan 4th 2022Appear to have found a potentially epic Fib time, starting from the very beginning of BTCs recorded upward thrust. Thought some might be interested, so am deciding to publish this chart. Note it catches the last cycle high almost perfectly, as well as the most recent high at the 4.618. Fib time 5 shows up on Jan 4th 2022. This is closely aligned with many analysts prediction of near the end of this Bull cycle.
There is a simple fan drawn of the tops. The top of the last 2 major bull cycles trend line is in the middle, and intersects with Fib time 5 showing in the area of $344K. Which is also closely aligned with many predictions of BTC hitting in the 6 digit range this cycle.
Note the Fib retracement is from the absolute bottom to the absolute top of BTCs recorded history. This current retracement is hitting very strong resistance right now. The Fib retracement "Golden Pocket" of the entire chart is roughly between $24.7K and $22K, with the last cycle high being just under $20K hanging out below.
I'm not sure BTC can rally $300K+ in 6 months, but... what do you think?
If nothing else, looks to be an interesting next couple of months.
Don't Panic! Zoom out and the BTC log chart looks great!This is an all-time log chart for Bitcoin, showing the percentage it has changed over time. Of course in trading and investment, percentage change is the only metric that matters: You invest an amount into an asset, and hope for a certain percentage return. The actual asset price doesn't matter a hoot.
As you can see, the recent "massive" dump actually looks rather insignificant as a percentage, when compared to BTC's history. Just a bit of a blip. And the long-term outlook still appears to be nice and bullish.
You can also see the trend curve shows that Bitcoin is getting less volatile over time (mainly due to increase in market cap), which is a good thing for the whole crypto market.
SIDEWAYS now (upsetting) - LONG in 2022 to $500k! For real.Ugh.
So, I'm biased bullish on BTC. Short and Long-Term. So charting this out has been a bit upsetting.
Apologies for the spider web, but I've tried to include major trendlines on this chart that I saw as pertinent as well as highlight clearly the latest RSI trend and support and resistance there. And then I was curious and threw in some Fibonacci Time Zones ... they lined up crazily, so they stayed too.
I've captured most my notes in the chart, but last comment: I've found that the price seems magnetically drawn to points where multiple macro trendlines converge. So that thought seems to bolster further the fib time zones callouts of the potential bottom and top coming in our futures.
Again. I hated what this analysis resulted in. My bias is strong. However, the chart is the chart. We'll see how well it holds. Thanks.
What do you call and exponential increase on a logarithmic scaleSeriously, what do you call it?
Normally, exponential increases (x^2) on a standard scale have a constant linear (x) slope on a logarithmic scale.
This chart shows an exponential growth in price ... on a logarithmic scaled price axis.
BTC Log Fractal - With Macro channelBTC Log Fractal - Nobody expects us to make a run the same size as last time, law of diminishing returns etc. Posting this for the kicks to see at what point is decouples from the fractal and under performs. Also as a rough guideline so I don't get lost in the bull run. Added channel too.
Bitcoin and log 618 + 382 retracements 618 log drawn from previous all time high (PATH) to peak often catches a very good bounce area to the linear 0.5/8618 area which for bitcoin would be the 47-50k area currently. Whether or not this then leads to the log 382 retracement at 20k after is debatable. Looking at this chart a break of 70k in the next 6 months would be very bullish IMO. Prob look for 250k lol
