Trade the TREND with 4 Trend Indicators4 Trend Indicators you can use to identify the current MACRO Trend.
It's always important to know where your market is currently trading. Is it bullish, bearish, or range trading? If you have established the trend, you can trade with the trend instead of against it. Trading against the trend ( for example shorting during a bullish cycle ) adds unnecessary risk to an already risky trade (leverage).
1) Bollinger Bands
2) Logarithmic View
3) Super Trend
4) Moving Averages + RSI
Let me know how YOU determine the macro trend!
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BINANCE:DOGEUSDT MEXC:ETHUSDT KRAKEN:BTCUSD COINBASE:SOLUSD
Logarithmicchannel
ETH - MACRO Multi-Month Logarithmic Target📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈
I've made a few updates on BTC from a macro perspective, but let's take a look at ETH today. What we specifically want to focus on is potential targets / bounce zones, and we'll use the logarithmic weekly recession t get to these targets.
From using the same timeframe as the previous bull season, and by using the same pivot points, we get a $20K target on ETH - a possibility for later this year:
Shorter and mid-term targets could include:
Here's the update on BTC, incase you missed it:
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BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
BTC MACRO Perspective - LONG Way to go📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈
It's been a while since I've done a macro update on BTC since the previous update.
I love the logarithmic view of BTC. It gives a clearer indication of price increases alongside growth. Although inflation and value factors aren't physically calculated into the price, seeing the upwards curve makes more sense from a "holistic view" that would include things such as growth and inflation.
A logarithmic chart view displays price changes as a percentage of the previous price. This means that equal vertical distances on the chart represent equal percentage changes, regardless of the absolute price level.
This is in contrast to a regular chart view, which displays price changes on an arithmetic scale. This means that equal vertical distances on the chart represent equal absolute price changes.
With help of great technical indicators, we can use the logarithmic chart as a sort of "roadmap".
The logarithmic trendline indicator (log trend channel) shows possible support and resistance zones. The logarithmic moving averages show possible support zones, and help identify if the price is generally trading bearish (under) or bullish (over).
First immediate support according to the logarithmic moving averages is around 51K:
Another interesting way you can use technical indicator in the MACRO timeframe, is by using the RSI such as this:
Here's another look at it from the MONTHLY logarithmic chart:
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S&P 500 Index (SPX): Long-term AnalysisThe 'Adaptive Trend Finder (log)' indicator analyzes the entire available history and calculates the strongest trend channel. It is arguably the best tool for instantly visualizing the price level from a technical analysis perspective.
On this chart, we have applied the 'Adaptive Trend Finder (log)' indicator twice, using logarithmic scale settings, and we have selected the 'Use Long-Term Channel' option for one of the two indicators (red). We adjusted the table to prevent overlap with the first indicator (blue).
What do we observe on the S&P 500 Index?
We can see that there are two Ultra Strong trends, one starting in the late 1930s and the other beginning in 2009. The CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for the channel starting in 1939 is 7.4%, and for the one starting in 2009, it is 10.6% (excluding dividends).
Now it's up to you to draw conclusions...
Happy trading!
Bitcoin - BTC Logarithmic RoadmapHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
I love the logarithmic view of BTC. It gives a clearer indication of price increases alongside growth. Although inflation and value factors aren't physically calculated into the price, seeing the upwards curve makes more sense from a "holistic view" that would include things such as growth and inflation.
A logarithmic chart view displays price changes as a percentage of the previous price . This means that equal vertical distances on the chart represent equal percentage changes, regardless of the absolute price level.
This is in contrast to a regular chart view , which displays price changes on an arithmetic scale. This means that equal vertical distances on the chart represent equal absolute price changes.
With help of great technical indicators, we can use the logarithmic chart as a sort of "roadmap".
The logarithmic trendline indicator (log trend channel) shows possible support and resistance zones. The logarithmic moving averages show possible support zones, and help identify if the price is generally trading bearish (under) or bullish (over).
Logarithmic Moving averages / support zones :
Just for interest sake, I mapped out the date-ranges, as well as how far the price fell logarithmically after each top. You'll see the word "clicks" on the chart. This simply indicates the amount of diagonal trendlines it has fallen. By using this pattern-dedicated approach, a commonality is found which may be useful in speculating a future price. Because if not for past history, how else would we speculate on the future?
It's interesting to note that the past 3 ATH's (all time high's) are each lower than the previous if you compare it not to price but to the "click lines". Even the fourth high (the one coming next) will be on a lower click-line than the previous, and that estimate is already over 300k. This is a really helpful way to speculate a future high because usually on a regular-view chart, the zone above the ATH is uncharted territory. You could use a Fibonacci trend-based extension , but this is limited to the cycle that you're using for input points. Logarithmic chart + indicators factor in the entire history of the price.
What are your thoughts, do you think 300K is realistic by September 2025?
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BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
SPX Falls Below the Midpoint of Its 13-Year Uptrend ChannelPrimary Chart: Logarithmic Chart with 13-Year Secular Uptrend Defined by Parallel Channel
BRIEF SUMMARY:
The secular uptrend over the past 13 years is still valid and contains within its boundaries the current bear market, which is at the primary trend level.
SPX's price has fallen past the midpoint of the channel. Two weekly closes have been below the midpoint of this channel. This week's close was lower than last weeks, which is not bullish at all, even if an oversold relief rally is becoming more likely.
The lower edge of the channel, called the upward trendline, lies at 3000 to 3200 from year end to about May 2023. If this bear market lasts that long, the lower edge of the channel may provide a good spot for the bear to end—or for a much longer-term shift in trend should that line break.
SPX has been in what technicians call a secular uptrend for approximately 13 years. A secular trend is an even higher degree of trend than the commonly discussed "primary trend." A primary trend typically ranges from about 9 months to 2 years. Two recent examples illustrate the primary trend: (1) The bull market from the March 2020 lows to the January 2022 highs, and (2) the bear market from the January 2022 high to the present date (9 months exactly).
By contrast, a secular trend is about 12-25 years long according to technical expert Martin Pring. When examining the price on a weekly chart from the lows of the 2008-2009 crash (the Great Financial Crisis) to the present date, one can find that the price has stayed within a trend channel, respecting its upper and lower boundaries more or less.
Will the channel break to show a much larger and longer-term shift in change? That is a question that no one can answer, but it will be worth noting whether price breaks or finds support at the channels lower boundary, the upward trendline.
Recently, price broke through the midpoint of this channel . Last week was the first weekly close below the midpoint. This week followed through with a decisive move lower and a second close below the midpoint—along with a lower weekly low. This is not bullish no matter how oversold oscillators and indicators may be. Speaking of oscillators, what oscillators predicted whether the June 2022 lows would be undercut? None: they all looked like they could be oversold, or close enough to oversold to work for a double bottom.
The double-bottom conversation also suggests that capitulation is not present. The widespread discussion of the term is actually bullish, reflecting hopes that the market will reverse its downtrend and put in a bullish reversal formation that will lead back to all-time highs. Is that the sort of sentiment that is commonly seen at a true bear-market low? The five stages of a bear market include denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. Could equity markets still be in denial? Or have markets moved to the third stage of bargaining? With all the talk of "double bottoms," in both equities and crypto, perhaps the current stage is "bargaining." Why? By describing the present selloff in this bear market as a "double bottom," market participants attempt to place the current ugly decline in a positive light. A double bottom, after all, is a pattern that implies a powerful rally after the second bottom, where the rally eventually exceeds the peak between the two bottoms and continues thereafter once confirmed. So all the banter about double bottoms shows that a lot of bullish hopes still have not been crushed. The end of a bear market, however, evidences the fourth and fifth stages of bear-market grief, which is depression and acceptance (capitulation).
Sure, a double bottom could lead to a nice bounce because oversold extremes tend to cause mean reversions anyway, and when everyone is looking at a double bottom, shorts may cover and investors may try to pick the bottom. That is why my hypothetical arrow shows a jagged trip to the lower upward trendline of the parallel channel. First a little lower, then higher in another OS bounce / bear rally, then lower again, then up as people try to catch the low, then lower again, and so on.
Eventually, price may likely come into contact with the lower edge of the channel—and the long-term secular uptrend will still be intact and neatly contain this bear market. In other words, this bear market at the level of primary trend will not invalidate the secular uptrend, unless price breaks that line around SPX 3000-3100 (considering where the line lies in 3 to 6 months).
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Author's Comments:
(1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view.
(2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades.
(3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success.
(4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
DJI (1897 to 2022) log channel reality checkCharting all possible events is useful, however unlikely they may be.
Logarithmic channel drawn from 1897.
Overshoot in 1929 and symmetrical undershoot 1932.
Throw-over and rejection 1987.
DJI entered hyperlogarithmic growth post-1995.
Bounce off channel top trendline 2009.
Maximum downside from 2022 high (symmetrical undershoot): -90% loss
- In "no bail-outs" scenario á la Great Depression.
Validity of analysis: These are straight lines roughly drawn for 120 years of data from an arbitrary cutoff point, what do you think?
Probability of risk: Unknown to uncategorizable.
BTC UpdateAfter seeing that every time BTC has crossed below the orange logarithmic line, it has never pumped until it touched the blue logarithmic and the bottom trend line of the wedge. Which has me reconsidering in short term, that BTC will probably not pump to 34k and most likely we will see a further crash down at the beginning of june.
The Total Market Cap Of Crypto Will 10X In The Next 3 Years!🔜🚀Using a log chart, a couple fib retracement tools and the overall-macro trend (going back to 2015), we can show that it is very possible that the total market cap of crypto will be roughly around 10.6 trillion dollars at some time in 2025. This is also a minimal projection, as that would be the absolute bottom of the trend. (Assuming macro trend holds) This goes along very well with crypto fundamentals as well, such as the bitcoin halving cycles (next halving being 2024 roughly) and the exponential adoption of blockchain technologies in world-wide industries. IMO this projection, itself, could also very-well be a STRONG understatement of the future TMC of crypto, however I am being conservative here.
IoTeX - To the moon ? - based on log chart channelEverything is in the chart...
Disclaimers:
!! This is not an investment advice and you shouldn't follow this setup !!
!! Never invest/trade with more money than you can afford to loose !!
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That's pretty much it! don't forget to ask if you have any questions!
If you want to follow me on this long journey ahead of us, you can support me by subbing and liking the post !
-Credits to xtekky-
Bitcoin Analyze (Logarithmic Curve Zones)!!!👀Hi, today I want to introduce the sixth short signal of the BTC Logarithmic Curve Zones Indicator .
Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ) Timeframe Weekly ⏰ ( Log Scale )
Bitcoin has been able to run from the beginning until now in BTC Logarithmic Curve Zones . now, I explain one of the trusty signals that Bitcoin has in BTC Logarithmic Curve Zones . when Every time, the price was able to break (to up) Midline of Channel ( 50% Fibonacci Level ) of the cure chart, and after that, again the price came back to under that line == BTC has touched 38.2% Fib .
Bitcoin has passed 5 signals until now, and all worked, this time is The sixth time ❗️
The 🎯 target 🎯 of Short sixth Signal can be around ❗️ 50k ❗️ (Price can touch this price with shadows too).
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position that you want to open).
Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅ 'like' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe
ETH-USDT Logarithmic Bullish ChannelGood day everyone!
Hope all of you are keeping well, going through this pandemic. Both physically, but also mentally. Having to cope with hyped-up, nervous governments that are going above and beyond to tighten their grip on it's population.
Luckily we can focus on something far more positive and above all, more important.
Cryptocurrencies.
Today I would like to bring to your attention the strength $ETH is showing. Charts emphasising this strength can be found left and right on social media. Therefor I would like to show you a more zoomed out view of what I think could potentially be possible for Ethereum.
$ETH looking very strong! We need to see increasing continuation of volume for $ETH to take its next leg up, which seems very plausible if you also look at different charts and pair from the ecosystem. Most alt coins look a bit weak and have been moving sideways in a choppy way for some time now. Most BTC pairs have been bleeding for some time now. Also looking at the ETH-BTC chart , one can see that a breakout from the larger timeframe cup and handle is imminent.
If you also believe there is an (for the most part) organic flow of money into the ecosystem, it is fair to assume the vast majority of the capital is flowing in from Bitcoin, to Ethereum, continuing its way through the major cap alt-coins all the way down to the micro caps.
Combine this with the extending cycle theory and the big scare we had in the middle of this year with a mini bear market, it makes a strong case for the projected growth of $ETH in the above chart.
After ETH rallies, next major alt-coin I'll have my eyes on? Cardano's $ADA. But more on that later.
For now I wish everyone a great day and remind you my view, is now your view and should therefor not be considered financial advise.
Stay safe and look out for eachother!
logarithmic chart of the Maticin logarithmic scale, the price hit the bottom of the ascending parallel channel in 4h time-frame. by looking at the bottom of the channel closely, one can see that Matic breaks the descending trend line and supported very well by its trend line.
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Buy SignalWeekly Hash Ribbons buy signal confirmed, price: $43,829 (CB). This would be the 12th buy signal in 9.5 years if not mistaken, after the most aggressive miner capitulation since 2021 with hash rate dropping by more than 50%. . This buy signal is the first in 8 months as well as first of 2021, since the price of $19.375 last year.
Recent buy signals :
Nov 2020: $19,375
Jul 2020: $9,303
Apr 2020: $7,706
Dec 2019: $7,384
Jan 2019: $3,514
The obvious trade. Reward/risk: 6.5:1.
Hash Ribbons indicator:
Stock to Flow Rainbow indicator:
Logarithmic growth in 2021:
BTCUSD: Over-extended beyond mid-level of logarithmic curveAfter passing the mid-level by February 2021 of the current cycle, with an anticipated top around December 2021, are we over-extended in the current bull market cycle? Notably each cycle from lower band of the logarithmic curve to the upper band has increased in velocity in each movement. I still believe in $100K+ by the end of 2021, but $50K already?
Logirthmic Curve & Network Growth : $100K in 2021?
Bitcoin's end of the bull run?Personally I feel the bull run is over. I was here in december 2017 and the same FUD was spread around this time in the cycle. But that is a gut feeling. The charts tell me another story.
The vertical red lines are the past halving. Looking at the time since the halving of 2020 we are 330 days into the bull run. In 2017 at the same point in the cycle we saw a massive dip in the bitcoin price. Just like now. We still had to go up to the 2017 ATH on day 523 of the cycle. What if the timing of this cycle is the same? In that case we can expect a €113.000 bitcoin in november. Wouldn't that be something?
The Ace Spectrum as a Template for Support ProjectionDemonstrating the big idea: That straight lines in log-space form exponential curves.
This property of the log chart is useful for examining assets with exponential growth (like high-growth stocks, cryptos, etc).
Because the log scale asymptotically approaches the absolute scale as y slice decreases, this indicator is really applicable to any time scale.
This indicator samples a distribution of lines from the past and projects them into the future, these projected lines form indicators of prior support.
The idea is longer support at those specific lines is indicative of support strength, which this indicator approximately captures.
My initial goal was to capture this intuition about exponential growth in log spaces by applying a monte-carlo style sampling approach to visualize the latent support lines.
After I had captured that in a slightly more complex version of this indicator, my goal was to distill the concept into the simplest possible implementation.
BTC- First major test of downward trendlineBitmex's recent lawsuit and bank secrecy act's potential implication to DeFi space didn't seem to shake crypto investors at all.
USDT issuance grew more than 10% in September and BTC is till hanging onto the edge of logarithmic channel.
The recent upward movement can be validated if BTC can close the weekly candle within the demand zone.
BTC-USD Optimistic geometry on logscaleHere is the same log scale chart as you have seen for zillion times here on TradingView.
Mapping a previous trends show us there is possibility that BTC is going to find its bottom in near future and right after may see another uptrend before upcoming halving (14.06.2020).
If trend holds and history will repeat a bright future with nice profits is waiting for HODLers.
This idea is not buy or sell advice. Always do your own research please.