Bitcoin - BTC Logarithmic RoadmapHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
I love the logarithmic view of BTC. It gives a clearer indication of price increases alongside growth. Although inflation and value factors aren't physically calculated into the price, seeing the upwards curve makes more sense from a "holistic view" that would include things such as growth and inflation.
A logarithmic chart view displays price changes as a percentage of the previous price . This means that equal vertical distances on the chart represent equal percentage changes, regardless of the absolute price level.
This is in contrast to a regular chart view , which displays price changes on an arithmetic scale. This means that equal vertical distances on the chart represent equal absolute price changes.
With help of great technical indicators, we can use the logarithmic chart as a sort of "roadmap".
The logarithmic trendline indicator (log trend channel) shows possible support and resistance zones. The logarithmic moving averages show possible support zones, and help identify if the price is generally trading bearish (under) or bullish (over).
Logarithmic Moving averages / support zones :
Just for interest sake, I mapped out the date-ranges, as well as how far the price fell logarithmically after each top. You'll see the word "clicks" on the chart. This simply indicates the amount of diagonal trendlines it has fallen. By using this pattern-dedicated approach, a commonality is found which may be useful in speculating a future price. Because if not for past history, how else would we speculate on the future?
It's interesting to note that the past 3 ATH's (all time high's) are each lower than the previous if you compare it not to price but to the "click lines". Even the fourth high (the one coming next) will be on a lower click-line than the previous, and that estimate is already over 300k. This is a really helpful way to speculate a future high because usually on a regular-view chart, the zone above the ATH is uncharted territory. You could use a Fibonacci trend-based extension , but this is limited to the cycle that you're using for input points. Logarithmic chart + indicators factor in the entire history of the price.
What are your thoughts, do you think 300K is realistic by September 2025?
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Logarithmicgrowth
Logarithmic growth curveBy using the 140 sma in combination with the logarithmic growth curves (gab´s crypto) by baltristangabriel, we can see that the crossing of the 140 sma (blue line) and the red line on the logarithmic growth curve means the trend has shifted. When the blue line crosses up, it's pretty close to the top. When the blue line crosses down, a volatile move to the upside sets in motion. So even though these crosses may not predict the exact top and bottom, they do give a clear indication of the direction the pendulum is swinging. Estimated time for the next cross is 21. nov.
DJI (1897 to 2022) log channel reality checkCharting all possible events is useful, however unlikely they may be.
Logarithmic channel drawn from 1897.
Overshoot in 1929 and symmetrical undershoot 1932.
Throw-over and rejection 1987.
DJI entered hyperlogarithmic growth post-1995.
Bounce off channel top trendline 2009.
Maximum downside from 2022 high (symmetrical undershoot): -90% loss
- In "no bail-outs" scenario á la Great Depression.
Validity of analysis: These are straight lines roughly drawn for 120 years of data from an arbitrary cutoff point, what do you think?
Probability of risk: Unknown to uncategorizable.
$BTC #Bitcoin Just Gonna Leave This Here (Hmmmm..Maybe?) 😝This is just adding onto my logarithmic regression-inversion theory and how I personally believe the $BTC price movements may specifically play out. The general theory is that the logarithmic regression of $BTC will invert at a certain point in the next 1-3 years, changing the price suppression $BTC has had for its whole life into exponential support. I personally believe this is very possible, with exponential adoption of #Bitcoin for things like sovereign wealth funds, countries' legal tender and possibly even a world reserve asset. If those things (plus other possible variables) occur then this is how I see that possibly playing out.
Here is a detailed explanation of what I personally believe is happening/going to happen here.
Phase 1:
There would be a breakdown of price like we have now (possibly) completed. This would be in order to accomplish a few things for global institutions. Some of those things are:
1) Get Bitcoin out of the hands of the "common man". It would not be possible to acquire the amount of $BTC needed with so many people holding.
2) Cause liquidity issues for exchanges, making it more difficult for just anyone to purchase. (We have already seen this. ex: Voyager, Celsius, etc.)
3)Allow large accounts to be created at more feasible prices, while also providing a good (high) enough entry price to sustain value for the overall asset in the eyes of the public. (To keep people from losing interest)
There are obviously more reasons, but that's another post.
Phase 2:
A relief rally back up to the median range. This will obviously be a very volatile range, as 50% of investors sell (expecting a sharp move downward) and others (possibly the central financial institutions and/or sovereign wealth funds, who will not initially disclose their acquisitions) accumulating within this range.
Because of this volatility, the likely range it will be in, the immediate supports/resistances, and the typical movement of the $BTC price; My current prediction is that $BTC will move upward, after flipping the top of the recent range into support, and break above the main down-trend of a massive flag that $BTC has been forming for over a year. Then after a retest of that upper trend, price will attempt to break the new-found resistance as traders long from that trend line. Believing that this is the last upward movement, traders will then short the resistance level, and other holders may sell out of fear (or just simply because they will be at a break-even price, since a lot of volume was transacted in that range). This range will then prove to be the median range, previously mentioned. $BTC will then make a lower low, again at the upper trend of the flag. This will seem like a "bear-signal" but will actually be a second confirmation of support off of the upper-resistance trend of the flag, which will "fake-out" traders, causing a short squeeze. Then more traders will continue to short as others switch to a long stance. All of these movements will print an inverse-head-and-shoulders, the break-out of which will give $BTC price the momentum needed to make it back up to the $60K-$70K range.
Phase 3:
After making it back to the "all-time-high" range, there will undoubtedly be heavy volatility, as some call for a triple-top and others "FOMO" into #Bitcoin. This volatility, bouncing between the upper regression curve and the inversion curve, will begin to print a "rising-wedge" pattern. The break-out of this wedge will be the ultimate inversion of regression into exponential growth.
This is all pure speculation, however it is based on both, strong fundamental data as well as technical data. I personally believe in this theory, and it could also play out in other ways, but this scenario seems to make the most sense to me at the moment.
**This is my own opinion based on data observed. This is not financial advice.**
zoom out broinspired by @spoofyy
...it's easy to look at the log rainbow and think uponly.
***NOTE: you can't lock chart when in log mode...so you'll have to play with the price scale (squeeze and stretch) til the spiral fits the tops like it did when i posted it***
but when you account for bitty topping out at lower and lower fib levels within the rainbow...you can see potential decay in the trend.
obviously we could just be in a lull and could hit $1000000 in ten years (hello hyperinflation)
but i wanted to visualize decay bc i genuinely think the log rainbow's uponly blinds me
log rainbow script:
then made double curves and visually fit them
spiral made from '11 bull market (bottom back to top diagonally) and fit to tops
i'm wary of using spirals on log charts but they seem to work a lot of the time? ... maybe bc "this is the life we have chosen" (hyperactive exponential growth)
Bitcoin Cycles and Log Growth CurvesHi everyone,
Thank you for considering reading my idea. Please note that this is just my opinion, and I'm not saying that this is going to happen.
These are the data from the chart using Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves:
Peak 1: $31.91
Peak 2: $1,242.00 after 903 days (65 bars)
Peak 3: $19,804.25 after 1,470 days (105 bars)
Peak 4: Around $280,000 after 2,023 days (145 bars) on June 19, 2023
Obviously, not financial advice and not 100% going to happen. Bitcoin can peak ANYTIME and not at a given date. This is just me playing with numbers and patterns.
Thank you for reading my idea. Like this idea and follow me for more analysis like this. NFA . TAYOR. DYOR.
Cheers,
Juvs
FTM/BTC (Fantom Coin) Preparing for Another Epic Leg Up >2XBINANCE:FTMBTC is one of the most beautiful charts I've seen in a while. Fantom is a smart contracts network that has grown about 100x in the past year. In this video, we analyse the charts and give our future outlook.
You can view this chart here .
If you like this video, then please leave a like. If you would like to see more, then please follow me. Thank you.
BTC/USD - 1M - Potential cycle top scenario Duplicated a single blue curve trend line a few times on the monthly, to create this messy chart!
'BTC Log Growth Curve' indicator top (red band), meets my blue curve tops/collisions. This can also be seen during previous market tops on this same chart (assuming the blue curves are legit).
BTC cycle top looking to be around $152K. Blimey.
Bull flag.
White channel (flag) measured move already played out.
Yellow pole's measured move taps the $97K area.
Red box showing best case sell zone.
Green box showing worst case retrace zone, which also taps the 21EMA.
December still looking like go-time.
Bitcoin top & bottomDon't know any TA, especially not Fib Channels & Logarithmic Growth Curves.
Meaning, this chart is likely technically wrong (comment on my errors if so).
Anyway, accoring to this amazing chart Bitcoin might bottom out by the end of this month (or beginning of February) at around 37k - 24k.
And then continue to top out at about 200k in July - September.
Followed by a bear market that may bottom a year later at around 30k.
Cardano Logarithmic growth curvesApplying the logarithmic growth curves to ADAUSD chart, we find the growth potential has been a bit limited, while it has shown tremendous growth post 2020, the overall top intercept hasn't moved much upward. Now if in the coming months, ADA can sustain the upward mometum, the growth ceiling will become higher and Ada should become an attractive investment with large growth potential.
BTC/USD Prediction AnalysisGood morning to all respected Traders and Investors,
I made a simple analysis for BTC/USD
Just prepare for the worst, I find support at 28k and resistance at 69k
I reckon you guys to entry at 28k and Take Profit at 69k
"Whatever you think, think the opposite :))"
Happy trading you all
Happy investing you all
Good luck!!
Critics and comments are super appreciated!!
Thanks!!
Cheers!
Regards,
PS: This is not financial advice. Please DYOR before entry the market
BLX Prediction Analysis and where do we go then?Hello, all respected Traders and Investors,
Here I made a simple analysis for BLX Index.
In my opinion, Bitcoin will be dump first to close the CME Gap into 40k and after that, I hope Pump will come..
Critics and comments are super appreciated
Thank you!
Happy trading you all!!
Good luck!
Cheers,
PS: This not financial advice. Please DYOR before entry the market
Updated : Ethereum log growth curvesWhile there's not much data for Ethereum to back the log growth hypotheses yet(only 1 cycle top till date), I plotted the ETH weekly chart with a slight modification of BTC log curves( Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves by Quantadelic).
It might be fun to see how this turns out in the future.
Ethereum logarithmic growth curvesWhile there's not much data for Ethereum to back the log growth hypotheses yet(only 1 cycle top till date), I plotted the ETH weekly chart with a slight modification of BTC log curves(Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves by Quantadelic).
It might be fun to see how this turns out in the future.
Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve. (Add to "4-year Cycle") Here the same " Bitcoin 4-year Cycle " idea,
but with " Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve ":
The Logarithmic Growth Curve
It’s a phenomenon to be found elsewhere in nature - something first exhibits explosive growth, then sees that growth increasingly taper off until eventually achieving a plateau. If the developing market price of Bitcoin exhibits an Logarithmic Growth Curve, then this suggests that Bitcoin, an incredibly intricate technology, is also is something of a force of nature.
The nature of this Logarithmic Growth Curve has been previously discussed in an article:
medium.com
So, Chart showing Logarithmic Growth Curves, with classical principal of TA on Weekly chart.
BTC: Long-Term CheatsheetWe just have to hold the curved line like in previous markets cycles. Hopefully with this curve and with the logarithmic growth curves we can predict when and where should BTC reach its market cycle top. When more points of contact with the curve more reliable it is.
Good luck out there!
XRP/USD logarithmic regression potentialRipple Behavioral Analysis compared to the past of the chart, follows a similar Doge/usd pattern.
Ripple's logarithmic regression curve below shows that potential for a big move in the near future exist.
So in this cycle, Ripple could even reach to $ 10-15.
SL: x<0.70 $ in weekly
good luck
Just a replication of 2013's bitcoin bullrun into 2021Nothing too serious, just replicating the 2013 cycle into the current. It would happen only if the same proportions are met, but it is extremely unlikely to happen since the current market cap is way too greater than 2013, so another 20x since previous ATH ($20k in 2017) is surrealistic... not even PlanB is so optimistic.