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Logarithmicregression

Epic Fail of Bitcoin in logarithmic Regression [Weekly]Hi everyone, There has been many references to the weekly logarithmic regression of Bitcoin that claimed it never failed from the time of its creation by Satoshi Nakamoto. it has been promoted on social media for a long time by serious advocates such as PlanB or many others on twitter. But as you can see on the chart, in November of 2022 the logarithmic regression failed to support the price for the first time in Bitcoin history. Bitcoin is relatively a new class of asset in comparison with Gold for instance and I believe one should be very cautious with it in regard to its short history, especially in times of a possible recession. FYI, Logarithmic regression is a type of regression used to model situations where growth or decay accelerates rapidly at first and then slows over time. more in-depth elaboration of its math and logic is available at : heartbeat.comet.ml Please manage your risk responsibly and make informed decisions. Good luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Shamshiri_Investments
6
$BTC #Bitcoin Just Gonna Leave This Here (Hmmmm..Maybe?) 😝This is just adding onto my logarithmic regression-inversion theory and how I personally believe the $BTC price movements may specifically play out. The general theory is that the logarithmic regression of $BTC will invert at a certain point in the next 1-3 years, changing the price suppression $BTC has had for its whole life into exponential support. I personally believe this is very possible, with exponential adoption of #Bitcoin for things like sovereign wealth funds, countries' legal tender and possibly even a world reserve asset. If those things (plus other possible variables) occur then this is how I see that possibly playing out. Here is a detailed explanation of what I personally believe is happening/going to happen here. Phase 1: There would be a breakdown of price like we have now (possibly) completed. This would be in order to accomplish a few things for global institutions. Some of those things are: 1) Get Bitcoin out of the hands of the "common man". It would not be possible to acquire the amount of $BTC needed with so many people holding. 2) Cause liquidity issues for exchanges, making it more difficult for just anyone to purchase. (We have already seen this. ex: Voyager, Celsius, etc.) 3)Allow large accounts to be created at more feasible prices, while also providing a good (high) enough entry price to sustain value for the overall asset in the eyes of the public. (To keep people from losing interest) There are obviously more reasons, but that's another post. Phase 2: A relief rally back up to the median range. This will obviously be a very volatile range, as 50% of investors sell (expecting a sharp move downward) and others (possibly the central financial institutions and/or sovereign wealth funds, who will not initially disclose their acquisitions) accumulating within this range. Because of this volatility, the likely range it will be in, the immediate supports/resistances, and the typical movement of the $BTC price; My current prediction is that $BTC will move upward, after flipping the top of the recent range into support, and break above the main down-trend of a massive flag that $BTC has been forming for over a year. Then after a retest of that upper trend, price will attempt to break the new-found resistance as traders long from that trend line. Believing that this is the last upward movement, traders will then short the resistance level, and other holders may sell out of fear (or just simply because they will be at a break-even price, since a lot of volume was transacted in that range). This range will then prove to be the median range, previously mentioned. $BTC will then make a lower low, again at the upper trend of the flag. This will seem like a "bear-signal" but will actually be a second confirmation of support off of the upper-resistance trend of the flag, which will "fake-out" traders, causing a short squeeze. Then more traders will continue to short as others switch to a long stance. All of these movements will print an inverse-head-and-shoulders, the break-out of which will give $BTC price the momentum needed to make it back up to the $60K-$70K range. Phase 3: After making it back to the "all-time-high" range, there will undoubtedly be heavy volatility, as some call for a triple-top and others "FOMO" into #Bitcoin. This volatility, bouncing between the upper regression curve and the inversion curve, will begin to print a "rising-wedge" pattern. The break-out of this wedge will be the ultimate inversion of regression into exponential growth. This is all pure speculation, however it is based on both, strong fundamental data as well as technical data. I personally believe in this theory, and it could also play out in other ways, but this scenario seems to make the most sense to me at the moment. **This is my own opinion based on data observed. This is not financial advice.**
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DoozerInvest
**Update** $BTC #Bitcoin Inversion Curve ✅ (1W Chart)This is an update on a previous chart, showing the logarithmic regression of $BTC. So far, it seems to actually be holding up pretty strongly with a strong holding of support around $17.5K as expected, were this theory to play out correctly. For anyone who's unfamiliar with my theory, it's that the slow regression of $BTC returns will actually invert, creating a rare "s-curve" formation. Plotting the regression curve, using both the exact highs and the exact lows, you can see that the curves will meet sometime in 2026. This shows that one of those regression curves will need to be broken in order to continue price movement. IMO, there are 2 options here. Either $BTC truly is a bubble and crashes down to nothing (not my belief), or the upper regression curve is broken. In the case of the upper regression curve being broken, this would possibly invert the curve and ~13 years of price suppression will be lifted. This could lead to an insanely strong, fast rally, far above the $100K milestone/dream every investor has these days. To plot this inversion, I have used the exact lows following the 2017-2018 blow-off-top, as this is when the majority of mainstream adoption seems to have occurred. As of today this "inversion-curve" has supported a new low of $17,592.78. A close below $18,400 would possibly invalidate this curve, however. I personally believe the overall theory to be correct, however the exact "inversion-curve" that could be charted out may be subjective. *This is based off of my interpretation of chart data. This is not financial advice.*
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DoozerInvest
⚠️⚠️ ✔️ OR ❌️ ? Is it the bottom for #bitcoin? ⚠️⚠️Building on my previous $BTC logarithmic regression chart, there has now been an almost perfect bounce off of the yellow, dotted, inversion-curve line. This coincides with daily, weekly and monthly RSI's being at extremely oversold levels with the 4hr RSI moving down into oversold territory. Personally, all my limit orders were hit perfectly so it seems I may have at least bought "A" bottom here. This abrupt price drop also has now created a broadening edge pattern, which typically will break to the upside when formed at the bottom of a downtrend. All of these confluences may just spell the final bottom price for $BTC in the short term and validate my "inversion-curve" theory. Of course this can still be invalidated by a close below the inversion-curve line. If that occurs, I would still believe an inversion could be possible, but over a much longer time period. In that scenario, my target range for a price bottom would be between $10,770 & $12,694. #btcinversion #btcbottom *These are my personal opinions, based on chat data. This is not financial advice.*
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DoozerInvest
2
⚠️⚠️ ✔️ OR ❌️ ? Is it the bottom for #bitcoin? ⚠️⚠️Building on my previous $BTC logarithmic regression chart, there has now been an almost perfect bounce off of the yellow, dotted, inversion-curve line. This coincides with daily, weekly and monthly RSI's being at extremely oversold levels with the 4hr RSI moving down into oversold territory. Personally, all my limit orders were hit perfectly so it seems I may have at least bought "A" bottom here. This abrupt price drop also has now created a broadening edge pattern, which typically will break to the upside when formed at the bottom of a downtrend. All of these confluences may just spell the final bottom price for $BTC in the short term and validate my "inversion-curve" theory. Of course this can still be invalidated by a close below the inversion-curve line. If that occurs, I would still believe an inversion could be possible, but over a much longer time period. In that scenario, my target range for a price bottom would be between $10,770 & $12,694. #btcinversion #btcbottom *These are my personal opinions, based on chat data. This is not financial advice.*
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DoozerInvest
Crypto Fair Value Logarithmic downside approx. 22% from hereGuys, when in doubt, zooming out! The green line is the lifetime fair value logarithmic channel. Despite all the turmoil, the total crypto market should not drop below $1.28 trillion. This is approximately a 22% downside from here. The price action is usually way above the fair value. Even though the price action has been trending sideways and down since mid 2021, however, the logarithmic fair value of total crypto market-cap, by definition, TRENDS UP. TIME is on our side. So relax, take a chill pill, consolidate some of your more risky shitcoins into Bitcoin and stable coins, take a deep breath and wait to see if we actually hit the worst case scenario. Frankly, I have been DCA-ing heavily lately. Not much lower we can go. - @Loniwood Twitter: @Loniwood
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by LoniChowdhury
A Complete Analysis of Bitcoin : Both Bull and Bear Side!!! This post is about Analysing Bitcoin using Multiple Methods and discovering important levels to watch for Bitcoin. I will be reviewing and analysing both Bear and Bull side of Bitcoin. ---------- 1) Important Levels for Bitcoin ----------- 1. Using Support & Resistance :- As you can see 39-40k is First Key Zone to watch as Demand Zone for Bitcoin. 2. Using Log Regression Channel :- Using this method, we can see by extending Lower side of UPPER Channel of Log Regression Channel that 38-39k might act as strong support where BTC might bounce from. 3. Using Volume Profile :- First Big Volume Shelf is sitting at 39-40k Zone, that might be indicating Strong support Zone in that area. 4. Using Fibonacci Levels :- Using Fib Levels, we can see that 0.618, the Golden Ratio Zone is also sitting at 40k Level. Thus, Four Different Methods are Indicating 39-40k Level as STRONG SUPPORT ZONE from where BTC Might Bounce from. ----------- 2) EW Speculative Count for Bitcoin ----------- 1. Long-term Elliot Wave Count :- I do believe we are in Wave 4 right now and Wave 5 would be coming that would take BTC upto 80k-100k level. 2. Mid-term Elliot Wave Count :- In Wave 4, we are working on making an Expanded Flat Correction and We are in Wave C of ABC Correction of Wave 4. 3. Short-term Elliot Wave Count :- We MIGHT be in Wave (b) of Wave B of Wave C right now. For Explaining my idea of Expanding Flat, i would like to attach my previous idea here :- -------- 3) Why Bears are looking Extremely Strong ------ 1. Head & Shoulder :- Bitcoin has printed a very clean Head & Shoulder Pattern on bigger timeframe with Target Price on 16-17k which is endangering for Bulls. 2. Death Cross :- A Potential Death Cross might be coming for Bitcoin. 3. Bear Flag :- Below we can clearly see that Bitcoin has broken down from a Bear flag. ------- 4) Why do i Expect a Good bounce soon from BTC for Bull's Sake ? --- 1. Divergence on Weekly Timeframe in Making :- Massive Bullish Divergence in Progress on Weekly Timeframe. 2. Divergence on 2-Day Timeframe in Making :- Massive Bullish Divergence in Progress on 2-Day Timeframe. 3. Double Bottom :- A Double Bottom MIGHT be in making and upon further decline in BTC Price 38-40k Zone should act as Good Support Zone. 4. Logical Reasoning :- If BTC would move impulsively and Bounced strongly from 38k-40k Zone then, when Bitcoin will go to 48-50k or even 53-56k then it would change mass mentality from Extremely Bearish to Here comes the moon and here comes the 80-100k, the moonboys. It would be a perfect DEAD CAT BOUNCE up until 48-50k or even 53-56k from 38-40k Zone. ------ 5) Short-term Bitcoin Expectation ------ 1. Some More Downside :- I am expecting BTC to retest 38-40k Zone and this is just wait game now. In the end, i would like to Mention, Market can do whatever it likes to do. Market likes to Teach us a lesson EVERY SINGLE TIME. Thus, I am fine with being Wrong. Bitcoin just might go up from this point, who knows. But, we have to determine and analyse all possibilities of what might happen and follow one Biased approach that seems more likely to OCCUR. But if BTC actually did not bounce from 38-40k level then 30k would be the NEXT Major Support Level i would be watching for. None of the info given is a financial advice. These are my own views that what i am watching and expecting and looking out for. I hope it will give you clear information and certain levels that i am watching. Also, please do let me know if i made any mistake.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by StunnerStock
12