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Bitcoin Corrective Wave MetricsAnalysis of long-term corrective waves from ATH's of different historic periods Facts: The drop of 93.75% back in 2011 was the biggest correction of all time. With time the corrections after new established ATH's got gradually smaller. I'll use fibonacci retracement to measure those heavy drops as ATH - 1 and bottom as 0 to document how measurements of historic drops could define levels of forthcoming waves. -93.75% capture: 2.272 made next ATH of 2013 1.618 defined the 2015 bottom Similarly, -86.96% fib measurement defined: Next ATH of 2017 at between 2.272 and 2.414 Level of 1.414 called the bottom -84.22% drop: This time 1.618 called ATH of 2021 Level between 1 and 0.786 made 2022 bottom Logistic curve partially explains why forthcoming bottoms got close to the previous ATHs The question is, could that be a sign of already saturated market which would cause btc to sidetrend making a long-term diamond pattern. Despite of Bitcoin being deflationary asset, the rate of growth has been slowing down, as the % of bullrun waves got smaller. Knowing about positive correlation BTC and SP500, we can deduce that BTC wouldn't have grown if not for SP500. This dependence would be a venerability for Bitcoin, if AMEX:SPY drops in the nearest future. Nevertheless, many authors in TradingView are optimistic about further growth. The fact that current price still holds at previous ATH levels, could indicate that crowd could be actually right. So to estimate where it would stop, I'll use most frequent fib levels which defined both next bottoms and ATH's. Levels are: 1.272, 1.414, 1.618 and 2.272
INDEX:BTCUSD
by fract
5
SPX Falls Below the Midpoint of Its 13-Year Uptrend ChannelPrimary Chart: Logarithmic Chart with 13-Year Secular Uptrend Defined by Parallel Channel BRIEF SUMMARY: The secular uptrend over the past 13 years is still valid and contains within its boundaries the current bear market, which is at the primary trend level. SPX's price has fallen past the midpoint of the channel. Two weekly closes have been below the midpoint of this channel. This week's close was lower than last weeks, which is not bullish at all, even if an oversold relief rally is becoming more likely. The lower edge of the channel, called the upward trendline, lies at 3000 to 3200 from year end to about May 2023. If this bear market lasts that long, the lower edge of the channel may provide a good spot for the bear to end—or for a much longer-term shift in trend should that line break. SPX has been in what technicians call a secular uptrend for approximately 13 years. A secular trend is an even higher degree of trend than the commonly discussed "primary trend." A primary trend typically ranges from about 9 months to 2 years. Two recent examples illustrate the primary trend: (1) The bull market from the March 2020 lows to the January 2022 highs, and (2) the bear market from the January 2022 high to the present date (9 months exactly). By contrast, a secular trend is about 12-25 years long according to technical expert Martin Pring. When examining the price on a weekly chart from the lows of the 2008-2009 crash (the Great Financial Crisis) to the present date, one can find that the price has stayed within a trend channel, respecting its upper and lower boundaries more or less. Will the channel break to show a much larger and longer-term shift in change? That is a question that no one can answer, but it will be worth noting whether price breaks or finds support at the channels lower boundary, the upward trendline. Recently, price broke through the midpoint of this channel . Last week was the first weekly close below the midpoint. This week followed through with a decisive move lower and a second close below the midpoint—along with a lower weekly low. This is not bullish no matter how oversold oscillators and indicators may be. Speaking of oscillators, what oscillators predicted whether the June 2022 lows would be undercut? None: they all looked like they could be oversold, or close enough to oversold to work for a double bottom. The double-bottom conversation also suggests that capitulation is not present. The widespread discussion of the term is actually bullish, reflecting hopes that the market will reverse its downtrend and put in a bullish reversal formation that will lead back to all-time highs. Is that the sort of sentiment that is commonly seen at a true bear-market low? The five stages of a bear market include denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. Could equity markets still be in denial? Or have markets moved to the third stage of bargaining? With all the talk of "double bottoms," in both equities and crypto, perhaps the current stage is "bargaining." Why? By describing the present selloff in this bear market as a "double bottom," market participants attempt to place the current ugly decline in a positive light. A double bottom, after all, is a pattern that implies a powerful rally after the second bottom, where the rally eventually exceeds the peak between the two bottoms and continues thereafter once confirmed. So all the banter about double bottoms shows that a lot of bullish hopes still have not been crushed. The end of a bear market, however, evidences the fourth and fifth stages of bear-market grief, which is depression and acceptance (capitulation). Sure, a double bottom could lead to a nice bounce because oversold extremes tend to cause mean reversions anyway, and when everyone is looking at a double bottom, shorts may cover and investors may try to pick the bottom. That is why my hypothetical arrow shows a jagged trip to the lower upward trendline of the parallel channel. First a little lower, then higher in another OS bounce / bear rally, then lower again, then up as people try to catch the low, then lower again, and so on. Eventually, price may likely come into contact with the lower edge of the channel—and the long-term secular uptrend will still be intact and neatly contain this bear market. In other words, this bear market at the level of primary trend will not invalidate the secular uptrend, unless price breaks that line around SPX 3000-3100 (considering where the line lies in 3 to 6 months). ________________________________________ Author's Comments: (1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. (2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades. (3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. (4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
TVC:SPX
by SquishTrade
17
BTC Struggles to Hold the Logarithmic LinePrimary Chart: Logarithmic Trendlines on Weekly Charts Recently, an article discussed a long-term logarithmic trendline that BTC's price had reached. Supplementary Charts: BTC Reached a Long-Term Logarithmic Trendline This post provides an update on that trendline, and it adds a couple more log trendlines for consideration, all of which are on weekly charts to give a longer-term picture of the trend. Several trendlines have been drawn to try to make the analysis as objective as possible. Trendlines are inherently subjective—they often can be drawn at various locations within a range and be affected by the bias of the chartist. Questions can arise whether to include extreme price points as touchpoints or treat them as whipsaws above or below the line. So this post attempts to add several trendlines to remove some of this subjectivity and bias, while recognizing that no trendline or group of trendlines can be completely objective. Note how BTC broke the upper trendline (light blue). BTC has been struggling at the lower two trendlines (orange and dark blue). Price has spent a great deal of time holding tightly at these lines. The lines have been both support and resistance in recent weeks. As of the date of this publication, price has recovered very slightly above these two lines. So while price has been holding both lines, it has been doing in a weak manner. One cannot argue that BTC's price action lately (on larger time frames) has been strong. But when looking at daily charts, though there has been some recent strength in the past few days coinciding with equity indices' strength. One line of technical analysis posits that when price declines to an upward trendline and crawls along the line, spending a great deal of time on the line, this shows weakness and portends a potential break of that trendline later. One counterargument is that price briefly broke below these lines but has recovered. This failed breakdown may signal a few days or weeks of strength. But with price action in crypto and equities being so tricky and choppy, anything can happen. Sometimes it's best not to trade the chop and just protect capital. It's good practice to remain patient and wait for the A+ setups. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT FTX:BITOUSD KUCOIN:BTCUSDT CME:BTC1!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SquishTrade
6
When Will DXY (Dollar Index) Resume Its Devastating Uptrend?Primary Chart: Linear Regression Channel for DXY on Daily Chart, Upward Trendline from November 2021, and Parallel Channel from 2008 DXY Lows Since the low on January 6, 2021, DXY (the dollar weighted against a basket of several other major currencies) has ripped about 28.66% higher, causing ripple effects in equity markets, commodities, and international trade. This has been massive run that has pushed DXY to within a proximate range of a 21-year high at 121.05, a level last reached in July 2001 during the bear market of 2000-2002. Supplementary Chart A: Weekly Chart of DXY with a Parallel Channel Showing the Uptrend Since 2008 along with the 21-Year High on July 2021 The Primary Chart shows a linear regression channel set at +/- 2 standard deviations. The channel runs from the lows on October 27, 2021. The current pullback in the US Dollar Index is nearing a -2 standard deviation move. At the lower edge of the channel will equal -2 standard deviations from the linear regression line (at the center of the channel). Interestingly, the lower boundary of this regression channel coincides to some extent (not perfectly) with the upward trendline drawn on the Primary Chart. But when the chart is switched to logarithmic, the up trendline runs nearly parallel with the lower bound of the regression channel. This parallel relationship between the up trendline and regression channel's lower boundary is posted in Supplementary Chart B below. Supplementary Chart B: Logarithmic Trendline from October 2021 to Present Date Next, consider a slightly longer-term trend reflected by a somewhat longer regression channel shown on a weekly chart. This regression channel shows that the recent pullback has not even reached the midpoint of the channel at the linear regression line, though it could pull back to that area. This somewhat longer-term trend has been shown to illustrate the strength of this trend and to contextualize the pullback, which remains very mild in light of this larger-degree trend. Strong trends generally tend to continue after corrective retracements rather than reverse—though the crash in equities this year shows that strong trends can and do reverse at some point. Supplementary Chart C: 2-Year Linear Regression Channel from January 2021 Fibonacci price analysis also provides a plausible technical argument for why DXY could end its pullback near the upward trendline support and the regression channel's lower boundary. This Fibonacci projection (or a measured move) appears on the Primary Chart above, and it shows that the 1.00 to 1.272 zone (where the two segments of the current decline are equal or nearly so) ranges from 107.93 to 109.21. Could this be where DXY reverses back higher to continue it's trend? Could this be where DXY moves back into the center of its channel? Given the strength of the trend over the past 2 years, this area seems like a spot where some significant chance exists for a reversal higher. Much will depend on the FOMC meeting on November 1-2, 2022. If DXY turns back higher, then it may well be that equity indices stall around the same time and turn back lower. Finally, consider a major weakness in the bull case in the intermediate term. Price has tested the top of the very long-term parallel channel now three times, as shown by the blue arrows on the Primary Chart. This makes sense that price would reject here given the long-term nature of this dynamic resistance level at the top of the parallel channel. This area is now weaker, though given the repeated contact price has had with it, including a few minor breaks that didn't last. Will price reject lower again on the next retest of the return line at the upper bound of the parallel channel? Or will it overthrow the parallel channel's upper bound in a final multi-week exhaustion move? An alternative is to target 116-117 in the index as the next upside target. If the parallel channel is redrawn on a logarithmic chart, channel resistance has not yet been tested yet in September and October 2022. In fact, the next push higher could test the upper channel on the log chart at 116-117. Supplementary Chart D: Parallel Channel Drawn on Logarithmic Chart Feel free to post your argument in the comments below! ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
TVC:DXYLong
by SquishTrade
10