Bitcoin In DANGER: Price Band ReversalIn this analysis I want to come back to an analysis I made back in March and June this year. I talked about my Logarithmic Price Bands indicator and how it has successfully predicted a BTC top around in the yellow band.
Over two months after the analysis, the price has fallen through the yellow price band again.
It's looking like BTC is losing upward momentum quickly. The final nail to the coffin of the bullish trend would be some sort of -10% or larger drop in a single day. Stocks are also eyeballing a recession risk with the bond yield inversion un-inversing, so it's not far-fetched that BTC can drop 30%-40% from its current value.
The long-term trend is still relatively bullish, but we can't have too many weeks more of this slow bleeding, it's killing momentum and interest, which is bearish.
Ideally, one would start scaling in once the price reached the green area, which is currently located between 18k - 41k. I highly doubt BTC will go below 30k again (looking at the BTC dominance), but you never know.
Bulls have to really start showing some force. Not just a few days of +1% or +2%, but a real >10% break out to stop this 6-month pattern of bleeding.
Share your thoughts!
Logartihmic
SasanSeifi 💁♂️SOLUSDT /1W Hello everyone ✌
In the weekly time frame, as you can see, the long-term price trend from the 8$ range faced buying pressure and was able to grow to the 27$ range.
Currently, after a slight correction of the price from the lv range of 16 dollars, it has a positive reaction and is in the range of 23 dollars.
the price is fluctuating in the long-term range of the specified box.
The scenario that we can consider in the long term is that if the price penetrates and stabilizes above the range of 27$, the possibility of price growth up to the range of 33/31 and the OB range of 38$ can be considered.
We have to see how the price will react.Note that it is important to maintain the 16$ range in the long term If the price breaks below the 16$ range, we may see further corrections.❗❗❗❗
❎ (DYOR)...⚠⚜
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JUST FOR FUN: Bitcoin to $1 million in 90 daysThe bet between billionaire Balaji and VATman Medlock on Twitter is going viral.
Balaji is betting that due to hyperinflation Bitcoin will be worth $1 million dollars in 90 days.
I thought it interesting to see what that would look like on the logarithmic.
Seems totally farfetched... or is it? :D
Heres the bet below:
@jdcmedlock
I'll bet anyone $1 million dollars that the US does not enter hyperinflation
@balajis
I will take that bet.
You buy 1 BTC.
I will send $1M USD.
This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k.
The term is 90 days.
AMZN: Arithmetic and Logarithmic Charts ExplainedIn this post, I'll be shedding light on the difference between arithmetic and logarithmic scale charts, and how to best use both charts to your advantage.
Arithmetic Chart
- The chart on the left is a chart that uses the arithmetic scale
- This is the chart most common to us all, and one that's easiest for traders and investors to comprehend
- An arithmetic chart represents price on the y axis, using equidistant spacing between the prices
- This is demonstrated on the arithmetic scale above; the distance between 1 and 2, is the same as the distance between 8 and 9
- Arithmetic charts demonstrate absolute value
Logarithmic Chart
- The log chart on the right side has a different approach to interpreting price movement
- The y axis uses equidistant spacing between designated prices
- This is demonstrated on the logarithmic scale above; the distance between 1 and 2, is the same as the distance between 2 to 4, 4 to 8, and so on.
- The logarithmic chart demonstrates the percentage change in the underlying asset's price
Case Study: Amazon (AMZN)
- We can take a look at Amazon's arithmetic and logarithmic charts, dividing them by significant phases to better understand the differences
- We can first see that the area marked by 'extreme volatility' on the log chart, is much more drastically demonstrated than that of the arithmetic chart
- This is because price fluctuations in terms of percentages were drastic at the time, due to the Dot-com Bubble.
- For more information on the Dot-com bubble and today's stock bubble, you can check out my other analysis below:
- However, because in terms of the absolute value changes during the Dot-com bubble are minuscule compared to the price fluctuations today, the phase of extreme volatility is barely noticeable in the arithmetic chart
- In the period of a 'steady uptrend', we can see a clear and steady uptrend in the logarithmic chart, indicating that the stock moved up at a consistent pace, percentage-wise
- The arithmetic chart, while not drastic in the uptrend's degree, demonstrates parabolic momentum building up
- We then have the 'exponential growth' phase. Here, we see a move from $400 to $3,400 on the arithmetic scale.
- However, the logarithmic chart merely demonstrates a steady uptrend without much volatility.
- This is because while the absolute value of the stock has risen significantly over time, the percentage change in the rise was consistent.
Conclusion
While the arithmetic chart is more familiar for the average trader/investor, logarithmic charts help us clearly view long term data, especially when price points show immense volatility during the short term. As such, log charts can be effectively used in for technical analysis of cryptocurrencies, as well as volatile tech stocks with long price history. The understanding of the log chart is an effective tool, but it must be used with caution, since most people intuitively interpret a chart as an arithmetic one.
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DON`T BUY: WARNING. Logarithmic scale. BTC DROP TO 220$Logarithmic scale. BTC DROP TO 220$
In this graphic it is possible to see the 3 ascending triangles more and more closed.
You are disconnected first descending triangle, my predictions is that more 2 will come on the way.
You can also see that at $ 4200 there is a fib. I sincerely think that btc will no longer pass in the near future.
Bitcoin Halvening Prediction in Logarithmic ChartProperties of the period that is between halvening and ATH :
- All time high happens after halvening. Then drops significantly.
- In logarithmic chart, Price increase in percentage drops %33 at every blue box.
- Period between halvening and ATH takes longer by %38.
So; after the third halvening, price change can be around %1000 and time for that ATH will be 90 bars/630d which leads us to a price of 420.000 $ at 14 Feb 2022.
Percantage in blue box : %8710 > %3003 > % 1000
Time to ATH : 47 bar > 65 bar > 90 bar
ATH Price : 1.140 $ > 19.258 $ > 420.000 $