Get started

Logic

SHIB/USDT 1D. Current situation. Triangle. Breakout. Mems pump.SHIBA INU/USDT 1D. Daily chart. Middleterm trend - horizontal channel. Price is now being in the support zone of this channel. Symmetrical triangle formed. Price now broke out the resistance of this triangle. Accumulating as for now. Other memes are pumping one after another. Those coins often pump before market local correction. This one highly connected with doge, as the main memcoin. This, as the one of the most liquid, will likely pump the last(for example, now LADYS is pumping). Triangle has been forming for more then 300 days. Now broke out. Price is a bit higher than the previous accumulation zone(2021), after which there was pump. This idea is mostly for price monitoring and understanding what's happening on the coin. It's also very important as to count with enormous pump from the bottom(ain't seen on the chart).
Long
by Ivan3tt
Lets make a BottomBounceIndicator today=Step by step annotated= Today, I am going to try something different. Let's make a Bottom Bounce Indicator. What is a bottom bounce? Bottom Bounce is a move I saw when analyzing a massive drop. The move caught my eye and has become a staple in how I find and catch a falling Knife. I have my weaknesses and demons just like anyone else. I am severely impatient and extremely an emotional creature by nature. **Fun Fact** There are two (technically three if you combine them and care about people in general) but for our purposes there are two ways to make a decision in life. Logical: Everyone has done this before: You want to buy a new car(substitute with whatever gets the juices flowing). You go online, you do your research and you come up with these things that are going to be absolute in your buying decision: Year, Make , Model of vehicle you want Color, style, package, interior Must have features as an absolute! Like Sunroof Dealership you will purchase from (normally closets one because people are lazy and like getting taken advantage of) Price you will pay.(if they knew the invoice it would be that because people don't need to make profits on things that cost $20k+) “oh, you guys will make it back on someone else” (Because everyone believes they are that one person that is above everyone else and deserves things for free) I=( Trade value you won't take a penny less for. (because for some reason everyone believes their car is in Great Condition and showcase ready) Bank they will get their money from or Cash they have to spend(Usually if its cash it's some absurd perfect trade and absolute negative deal that makes the amount of money they have just right.) ;: ) Interest rate they will get Amount of money they will put down Years they will finance **I think that covers most of it*** (boy im really going deep into this scenario….) Here is where reality sets in… You show up to the dealership and you tell the sales person you are just looking around. (Because you love being tortured by salesmen and you felt, “ hey I don’t get much free time let's go to the dealership and be harassed by salesman” (sounds about right) Finally, you grace the salesman with the right to show you a vehicle. You tell them everything above about the car you want. 2024 Lexus RC350 f package White with Red interior $54,072 +++ Emotional Decision: While on your much deserved test drive you start to take ownership of this finely crafted out of the most premium of premium hand stitched leather seats and steering wheel, wait what's that the shifter also has the same leather on it. And look at that dash it moves when I start the car! Push button Start, and the LEDS! Sunroof, Navi, Surround Sound, and OMG the seats are like Hugging me! Who cares about Covid and being isolated from people when I can be hugged by this seat! Heated and AC, WHAT! Of course my Honda has it but not like this! The steering wheel doesn’t even shake at like 100 mph, ok the salesman is scared….let me get a hold of myself. Trade Details: Trade: 2020 Honda Accord EXL Black with gray interior 55k miles regular maintenance (obvs right before the major 60k mile checkup) tires have been changed once. No Wrecks one owner. New was around $32-34k 4 years old 15k miles ish/yr The decision: Location: Local Lexus Dealership inside sitting down looking at numbers… The mood: Serious During the test drive you: Fell in love hard for the vehicle Fun fact: you can't see the outside from the inside. Lexus doesn't make cheap interiors so it doesn't matter the color as it looks way better than the “Cord”. While Driving you started thinking: You know I got that bonus and haven’t touched it, I could put that down as well. I mean I could pay another $100 a month for this. I didn’t think I would like the Blue but I actually love it! Black is so hot but really they are all hot! As far as interiors go. If I could finance this through them, maybe I’ll get a rebate or something and then just refinance it with my bank so I don't have to wait and I can drive home today! Emotional Decisions: replace all logic and throw it out the window, think of it like an extremely efficient Moving company with a crew of like 15 jacked dudes and pull up in an envoy that is reminiscent of a Military Convoy. And literally toss everything you have out the door and windows and load up, take off in less than 15 mins. Then what happens next is they bring in the Decor team which is made up of like every reality show Fix it and ditch it Home Renovation Show put together and within the next 5 mins they fill your home full of new IDEAS! YAY! Back at negotiations: You stand Firm and You tell him with a serious VOICE that you will buy it for 84 months $ 690 with $5k down and that you will take $18k for your trade and not a penny less! Finance through them for the rebate but really so you can drive home today. Interest Rate: 7.99% All for the Vehicle you test drove: 2024 Lexus RC350 f package Blue with black interior $53,761++ After a few hours you finally walk out to see your brand New Car and get handed the 3 C’s = See your Car See your Keys See you Later! And that my friends is how emotion will destroy your logic every time! By iCantw84it 10.30.23 In 2 days its my bday give me a Bday Gift I love Boosts! Plus they are free, if you found this somewhat entertaining, and educational pls like follow and BOOST! Thanks! *** btw if you want to know the 3rd way just shoot me a message and a *** btw if you want to know the 3rd way just shoot me a message and I’ll let you know.
by iCantw84it
KINT/USDT 1D. Coin as an example. Clear price action.KINTSUGI/USDT 1D. Secondary and main trend. Polkadot ecosystem coin. Spectating this coin for quite a while. Since the beginning of the year we saw quite an accumulation which lasted about a year. It's marked as green rectangle on the chart. In this accumulation there were 2 clear price movements(accumulation then pump). Then, with the marked(as it's no longer logical to hold the price in the accumulation) - price fell out of this accumulation channel. Since then the falling wedge started to form. Right now the price is moving inside this falling wedge and finding it's local bottom. It's more logical to buy FROM the bottom, not TO the bottom. I believe it's clear. Only when we see the bottom forming - it's more decent to buy rather then now, when the price only searching for it's bottom. But we're also near the reversal zone, which is shown as blue rectangle on the chart. Very likely price will reverse from this 0.26-0.3$ zone. Potential zones above and percentage amount from each potential reversal zone are shown on the chart. It's better to see increasing in volatility before entering the deal. This factor allows to indicate the bottom is forming. For the future we might see the same horizontal channel will be formed here. Hence it's possible to see couple pump cycles. If we're speaking about time periods - it's about autumn the price should move, believe this is quite obvious. Though it's possible to see couple moves in the potential channel - the most probable is the first move, so it's probably reasonable to work with it. How do it it i believe i have described above.
by TradingTsar
Wyckoffian logicWhen you understand the Wyckoffian phases of the market, you can determine when to be in or out of the market. You begin to understand how the large accounts determining market the trend, change of trend and price action. Wyckoff Phases of Accumulation Phase A: In phase A, supply has been dominant and it appears that finally the exhaustion of supply is becoming evident. The approaching exhaustion of supply or selling is evidenced in preliminary support (PS) and the selling climax (SC) where a widening spread often climaxed and where heavy volume or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests. Once these intense selling pressures have been expressed, and automatic rally (AR) follows the selling climax. A successful secondary test on the downside shows less selling that on the SC and with a narrowing of spread and decreased volume. A successful secondary test (ST) should stop around the same price level as the selling climax. The lows of the SC and the ST and the high of the AR set the boundaries of the trading range (TR). Horizontal lines may be drawn to help focus attention on market behavior. It is possible that phase A will not include a dramatic expansion in spread and volume. However, it is better if it does, because the more dramatic selling will clear out more of the sellers and pave the way for a more pronounced and sustained markup. Where a TR represents a reaccumulation (a TR within a continuing up-move), you will not have evidence of PS, SC, and ST. Instead, phase A will look more like phase A of the basic Wyckoff distribution schematic. Nonetheless, phase A still represents the area where the stopping of the previous trend occurs. Trading range phases B through E generally unfold in the same manner as within an initial base area of accumulation. Phase B: The function of phase B is to build a cause in preparation for the next effect. In phase B, supply and demand are for the most part in equilibrium and there is no decisive trend. Although clues to the future course of the market are usually more mixed and elusive, some useful generalizations can be made. In the early stages of phase B, the price swings tend to be rather wide, and volume is usually greater and more erratic. As the TR unfolds, supply becomes weaker and demand stronger as professionals are absorbing supply. The closer you get to the end or to leaving the TR, the more volume tends to diminish. Support and resistance lines usually contain the price action in phase B and will help define the testing process that is to come in phase C. The penetrations or lack of penetrations of the TR enable us to judge the quantity and quality of supply and demand. Phase C:In phase C, the stock goes through testing. It is during this testing phase that the smart money operators ascertain whether the stock is ready to enter the markup phase. The stock may begin to come out of the TR on the upside with higher tops and bottoms or it may go through a downside spring or shakeout by first breaking previous supports before the upward climb begins. This latter test is preferred by traders because it does a better job of cleaning out the remaining supply of weak holders and creates a false impression as to the direction of the ultimate move. A spring is a price move below the support level of a trading range that quickly reverses and moves back into the range. It is an example of a bear trap because the drop below support appears to signal resumption of the downtrend. In reality, though, the drop marks the end of the downtrend, thus trapping the late sellers, or bears. The extent of supply, or the strength of the sellers, can be judged by the depth of the price move to new lows and the relative level of volume in that penetration. Until this testing process, you cannot be sure the TR is accumulation and hence you must wait to take a position until there is sufficient evidence that markup is about to begin. If we have waited and followed the unfolding TR closely, we have arrived at the point where we can be quite confident of the probable upward move. With supply apparently exhausted and our danger point pinpointed, our likelihood of success is good and our reward/risk ratio favorable. Phase D:If we are correct in our analysis and our timing, what should follow now is the consistent dominance of demand over supply as evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume, and reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminishing volumes. If this pattern does not occur, then we are advised not to add to our position but to look to close out our original position and remain on the sidelines until we have more conclusive evidence that the markup is beginning. If the markup of your stock progresses as described to this point, then you’ll have additional opportunities to add to your position. Your aim here must be to initiate a position or add to your position as the stock or commodity is about to leave the TR. At this point, the force of accumulation has built a good potential as measured by the Wyckoff point-and-figure method. In phase D, the markup phase blossoms as professionals begin to move into the stock. It is here that our best opportunities to add to our position exist, just as the stock leaves the TR. Phase E: Depicts the unfolding of the uptrend; the stock or commodity leaves the trading range and demand is in control. Sell offs are usually feeble. Wyckoff Accumulation Events PS: Preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end. SC: Selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes, as heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests. AR: Automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR. ST: Secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. It is common to have multiple STs after a SC. Shakeouts: (and or Springs) usually occur late within a TR and allow the stock’s dominant players to make a definitive test of available supply before a markup campaign unfolds. A “spring” takes price below the low of the TR and then reverses to close within the TR; this action allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to acquire additional shares at bargain prices. A terminal shakeout at the end of an accumulation TR is like a spring on steroids. Shakeouts may also occur once a price advance has started, with rapid downward movement intended to induce retail traders and investors in long positions to sell their shares to large operators. However, springs and terminal shakeouts are not required elements.. Test: Large operators always test the market for supply throughout a TR (e.g., STs and springs) and at key points during a price advance. If considerable supply emerges on a test, the market is often not ready to be marked up. A spring is often followed by one or more tests; a successful test (indicating that further price increases will follow) typically makes a higher low on diminished volume. SOS: Sign of strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume. Often a SOS takes place after a spring, validating the analyst’s interpretation of the prior price action. LPS: Last point of support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS. Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistance, on diminished spread and volume. On some charts, there may be more than one LPS, despite the ostensibly singular precision of this term. BU: Back-up. This term is short-hand for a colorful metaphor coined by Robert Evans, one of the leading teachers of the Wyckoff method from the 1930s to the 1960s. Evans analogized the SOS to a “jump across the creek” of price resistance, and the “back up to the creek” represented both short-term profit-taking and a test for additional supply around the area of resistance. A back-up is a common structural element preceding a more substantial price mark-up, and can take on a variety of forms, including a simple pullback or a new TR at a higher level. Wyckoff Phases of Distribution Phase A: In Phase A, demand has been dominant and the first significant evidence of demand becoming exhausted comes at preliminary supply (PSY) and at the buying climax (BC). It often occurs in wide price spread and at climactic volume. This is usually followed by an automatic reaction (AR) and then a secondary test (ST) of the BC, usually upon diminished volume. This is essentially the inverse of phase A in accumulation. As with accumulation, phase A in distribution price may also end without climactic action; the only evidence of exhaustion of demand is diminishing spread and volume. Where redistribution is concerned (a trading range within a larger continuing down-move), you will see the stopping of a down-move with or without climactic action in phase A. However, in the remainder of the trading range (TR) for redistribution, the guiding principles and analysis within phases B through E will be the same as within a TR of a distribution market top. Phase B: The building of the cause takes place during phase B. The points to be made here about phase B are the same as those made for phase B within accumulation, except clues may begin to surface here of the supply/demand balance moving toward supply instead of demand. Phase C: One of the ways phase C reveals itself after the standoff in phase B is by the sign of weakness (SOW). The SOW is usually accompanied by significantly increased spread and volume to the downside that seem to break the standoff in phase B the SOW may or may not “fall through the ice,” but the subsequent rally back to a “last point of supply” (LPSY), is usually unconvincing for the bullish case and likely to be accompanied by less spread and/or volume. Last point of supply gives you your last opportunity to exit any remaining longs and your first inviting opportunity to exit any remaining longs and your first inviting opportunity to take a short position. An even better place would be on the rally that tests LPSY, because it may give more evidence (diminished spread and volume) and/or a more tightly defined danger point. An upthrust is the opposite of a spring. It is a price move above the resistance level of a trading range that quickly reverses itself and moves back into the trading range. An upthrust is a bull trap — it appears to signal a start of an uptrend but in reality marks the end of the up-move. The magnitude of the upthrust can be determined by the extent of the price move to new highs and the relative level of volume in that movement. Phase C may also reveal itself by a pronounced move upward, breaking through the highs of the trading range. This is shown as an upthrust after distribution (UTAD). Like the terminal shakeout in the accumulation schematic, this gives a false impression of the direction of the market and allows further distribution at high prices to new buyers. It also results in weak holders of short positions surrendering their positions to stronger players just before the down-move begins. Should the move to new high ground be on increasing volume and relative narrowing spread, and price returns to the average level of closes of the TR, this would indicate lack of solid demand and confirm that the breakout to the upside did not indicate a TR of accumulation, but rather a formation of distribution. Successful understanding and analysis of a trading range enables traders to identify special trading opportunities with potentially very favorable reward/risk parameters. When analyzing a trading range, we are first seeking to uncover what the law of supply and demand is revealing to us. However, when individual movements, rallies, or reactions are not revealing with respect to supply and demand, it is important to remember the law of effort versus result. By comparing rallies and reactions within the trading range to each other in terms of price spread, volume, and time, additional clues may be discovered as to the stock’s strength, position, and probable future course. It will also be useful to employ the law of cause and effect. Within the dynamics of a trading range, the force of accumulation or distribution gives us the cause and the potential opportunity for substantial trading profits. The trading range will also give us the ability, with the use of point-and-figure charts, to project the extent of the eventual move out of the trading range and will help us determine if those trading opportunities favorably meet or exceed our reward/risk parameters. Phase D: Phase D arrives and reveals itself after the tests in phase C show us the last gasps or the last hurrah of demand. In phase D, the evidence of supply becoming dominant increases either with a break through the ice or with a further SOW into the trading range after an upthrust. In phase D, you are also given more evidence of the probable direction of the market and the opportunity to take your first or additional short positions. Your best opportunities are at rallies representing LPSYs before a markdown cycle begins. Your legging in of the set of positions taken within phases C and D represents a calculated approach to protect capital and maximize profit. It is important that additional short positions be added or pyramided only if your initial positions are in profit. Phase E: Depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock or commodity leaves the trading range and supply is in control. Rallies are usually feeble. Wyckoff Distribution Events PSY: Preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching. BC: Buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, and heavy or urgent buying by the public is being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often occurs coincident with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price. AR: Automatic reaction. With demand substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of a distribution TR. ST: Secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. If a top is to be confirmed, supply will outweigh demand, and volume and spread should decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. A ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs, then quickly reverses to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR. SOW: Sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant. LPSY: Last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest. UTAD: Upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution. AR - Automatic rally or reaction BC - Buying Climax BOI - Backing upto ice BTI - Breaking the ice BUEC - Backup to edge of creek CREEK - Critical support FTI - First time over ice ICE - Critical resistance JAC - Jumping across the creek (or JOC) LPS - Last point of Support (Demand) LPSY - Last point of Supply MD - Mark down MU - Mark up PS - Preliminary support (Demand) PSY - Preliminary supply SOS - Sign of strength SOW - sign of weakness ST - Secondary test TSO - Terminal shake out (Spring) TUT - Terminal thrust UTAD - Up thrust after distribution SC - Selling Climax TR - Trading Range UT - Up thrust Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by EXCAVO
95
If BTC Loses $29K...If BTC loses $29K support, where will the bottom form? If previous major resistance tends to become future major support, then to predict BTC's bottom you need to determine previous major resistance. Reasoning: - Major future support = previous major resistance. - $10,000 - $14,000 was a strong multi-year resistance area leading up to the most recent bull run. - Once broken, there was very little resistance at the $20,000 level before price blasted higher, despite $20K being the 2017 all-time-high (you'd figure sellers would be there). - Therefore, $20,000 was not previous major resistance, since there was relatively little price action at that level overall. - Previous major resistance is the $14,000 - $10,000 zone. - Therefore, future major support is most likely $14,000 - $10,000. ***$20,000 is a strong psychological support level, but not probable as major support from a price-action perspective. I hope I am wrong. Adrian
by UnknownUnicorn17853784
GBPJPY short day-tradeI took this entry signal however when the new candle opened price quickly moved down thus changing my SL pips and size. The new calculated size was not the minimum contracts that I can trade -AND- due to the Fear of Missing Out I still entered anyways. I technically forced this setup since it originally met my criteria but I wasn't fast to the gun and the conditions of the situation quickly changed and it suddenly didn't meet my criteria YET I still entered- FOMO. I'll be much better off trading based off of Logic rather than Fear/Emotion when moving forward. I want to learn from this. Not just that I believe I Need to learn from this to become a successful trader.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
1
BTCUSD: Bullish trend continuationDear trading enthusiast, Price action in the coming days is rather important for determining the overall direction in the coming weeks and months. Looking at the current trend: - Price is contracted in a falling wedge (green) and testing the bottom of the yellow channel. - RSI is printing hidden bearish divergence. I expect to see price brake out upwards out of the falling wedge (green) and re-test the upper resistance (blue) shortly after. A closure (on the weekly) candle below 8000 would be rather bearish (short-term) and require a new analysis. TheNDK *** This post is for your entertainment only and not trading advice ***
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ThenDK
Speculating predisposition testI recently published an idea on the (mostly innate) qualities required to be a good speculator. Next I will write an idea on what one has TO DO to accomplish his goal of being profitable. Not general qualities. What actually must be done. That thing we never hear about, trading educators never ever tell anyone this, all they do is mention "the psychology" and generalities that anyone with common sense can figure out, and the reason is simple: They are not profitable . There are even "trading educators" that have a career as marketers and openly admit they never took a single trade. What is it that if done, and provided one does not have fatal flaws, with "100%" guarentee success? Stay tuned to find out :D Meanwhile I thought of this which I think is a fun test. Got the idea from seing so much troll logic and flawed arguments recently. Being able to make an unbiased logical analysis of news price fundamentals is a necessary thing to make money simply, and even just being a good human being and not a big disgusting pile of you know what. If you want to take things to the next level I think learning (and understanding...) abstract algebra (groups, rings, fields, modules, vector spaces) will turn you into a superhero. The logic, the analytic reasoning. It's too good. Compared to the average illogical emotional herding clueless gambler ye superhero is the right word. You will just see and understand things differently. Can you tell me what are the flaws in each of the 2 demonstrations that gullible people fall for? Not looking for anything too complicated, just the few gaping holes in the reasoning. I will answer comments and I will post the answer as an update in a few days.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by MrRenev
6
My view on BTCOK, I am mildly drunk making this... I am new to social media lololol My current view on BTC and crypto, BTC is the organic, original form of crypto currency. NO ONE knows what crypto currency is (in an economic and global phenomenal sense) it could become a global reserve currency or it could become simply a "millennial fad." The truth is is has been growing at an exponential rate since its inception. That is the only truth. That is the reality of it. It goes in wild swings from worth pennies to dollars, dollars to tens of dollars, from tens of dollars back to dollars, and from dollars to Hundreds of dollars. Bitcoin is a worldwide phenomenon. I have been involved in bitcoin over the past 4 years. I remember Silk Road. I remember $75 bitcoin. I bought $75 dollar bitcoin. I know one thing from bitcoin. Bitcoin provides. It has provided for me for over 3 years. It will continue to provide. It has never NOT provided. All it has taken is trust. Bitcoin EXISTS because of trust, our trust, my trust. I trade alts, but you only trade alts so you can get MORE bitcoin. Everything is for Bitcoin, bitcoin is the connection between cryptocurrency and the world. It is the organic, original. Many people on this site say it is going down, many analysts say that it is going to 3k, 4k, 5k. But I say BS!!! Bitcoin will not cross 6k AGAIN. EVER. I know this because I will eat rice and beans before I sell a 6k bitcoin. No more hookers for me (I'm in NL it is legal yo!!!), no more restaurants, no more cigarettes *cry.... I will go bare bones lifestyle if BTC goes below 6k. RENT AND FOOD. RENT AND FOOD. I am in ETH so that it hits .05 and I will be back in BTC. I am in XRP long to use as cashflow for the next few months, but I am in BTC for LIFE. I have been doing this longer than you, and I am in BTC for life. It is the one thing I've learned in this crypto trading game it is all for bitcoin. Everything is for more bitcoin. To be honest, my past year I lost a goodly portion of my stake in bitcoin. I will not make that mistake again. Sincerely, Cocoadreamboy
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn2825836
Cross Ladder Quantitative Analysis ExampleUsing the Harmonic Mean (Pythagorean Means), we focus on "three values" using the Cross Ladder Problem by drawing the geometric shape - vectored R/S points. These values are taken from the harmonic mean of "B" "A" "h". The calculation inputs are Log Normal, Exponential, and Skewness. (Arithmetic mean gives higher data points that will error your weight); Harmonic Mean gives equal weight to each data point. This is in part; a computation set in our Optimal Geo-Ratio (OG) Model. One would want to incorporate the Intrinsic/Time Value to carry out the time horizon price target. We typically apply the STDEV*SQRT(45 days/252) equation to the two outcomes. You may use a short cut divisor 1/16 per incremental price input for jump diffusion if preferred, integrated with a Beta stochastic volatility model. Square Time Value and Excess Kurtosis are not shown in this example. Just remember volatility is the standard deviation of expected returns. Volatility is proportional not directional. Peace.
DShort
by Zentoro