Logscale
DON'T BE FOOLED AGAIN....To be straight forward honest with you, I did not expect BTC to reach 7k before the major leg down.
But there are two important things I'd like to talk about.
1. Notice how on the log scale we didn't even break through March's downtrend.
Remembers me of the time when BTC broke through December's resistance on the auto scale, everybody was bullish and nothing happened.
BTC actually went down again.
Why?
Because this major resistance hasn't been broken on the log scale.
Same thing might happen here.
2. We got yet another rising wedge forming.
BTC formed a similar rising wedge at the beginning of April - remember how bullish everybody was?
The afore mentioned rising wedge was underlined by a (hidden) bearish divergence.
Well...guess what.
BTC is forming yet another rising wedge, with a hidden bearish divergence on the 1H Chart AND apparently on the daily chart.
If the wedge is confirmed by a high volume breakdown, expect 5.800$ to happen and consider shorting.
In case BTC manages to break through 7.250$, we might see 7.500$.
Wish you a nice sunday.
And the most interesting confluence goes to! BTCUSDThe 3.618 measured from $0 to the 2013 ATH & The 0.786 measured from $0 to the 2017 ATH
$5 difference.... Interesting, right?
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The big question on all our minds, where is the bottom? Unfortunately there is no correct answer. The market makers will force sell offs until they can't force any more. Then, and only then, will price reverse.
We speculators will do our jobs regardless, we will speculate, we will trade the trend and make a living off the micro (or not so micro) movements.
Note: The current long term support is the weekly 50 moving average. Open and close a weekly candle under that and I expect we see the 0.786 / 90 moving average.
The real question you should be asking yourself is;
Do I believe in bitcoin long term? If the answer is yes, then now is the time to start Dollar Cost Averaging down.
Why wait for the bottom and average up? That makes no sense right, and what if the bottom is already in and you missed it?
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I am bullish long term. In case you hadn't noticed. "Target sir?" $32K by 2020, conservatively.
P.S I changed the background of my chart to reduce strain, I must be getting old.
Perspective on Bitcoin -> Logarithmic & Linear ScaleHello dear friends! I hope you are doing well. I've been laying sick in my bed for most of the week, so you haven't seen much TA from me lately. I'm starting to get back on my feet again, so let's kick off with a dual chart on Bitcoin / US dollar.
This Bitcoin chart is all about perspective.
The chart on the right is using the linear price scale, to which most of us default in our daily trading. The chart on the left is using the log, short for logarithmic, scale. For those who might be unfamiliar with the log scale, here is the definition from Investopedia: A type of scale used on a chart that is plotted in such a way that two equivalent percent changes are represented by the same vertical distance on the scale, regardless of what the price of the asset is when the change occurs.
Some of us might be saddened or pessimistic about Bitcoin / the cryptocurrency market right now. This is very understandable, especially if we look at the lineair price scale. Bitcoin went down to $5,800 in February, coming from nearly $20,000 in December. Right now, shorter term, the market is bearish and Bitcoin's volatility is dominating trends of alt coins. However if we zoom out and look at the bigger picture it seems less wrecked as it might appear.
In November / December 2017, Bitcoin rocketed to the moon, hype and fomo fueled rocket engines make it break orbit from the yellow channel on the log scale chart, but... it couldn't escape its gravity and when the hype fuel burned up it got pulled right back in to the channel. We could and should probably call it a crash, also considering how it influenced the market as a whole, but it still acts within the yellow ascending channel, while it could also have crashed through that bottom by now if the market would have crashed beyond repair or hope for salvation.
This chart is for reflection purposes, I hope it might help those of you in need for fresh perspective. I will soon post an updated zoomed in BTC chart with my short term price expectations.
Personally I only enter trades after I witness a break confirmation. My analysis is not financial advice: you should never invest solely upon reading my or another persons TA and do your own research: explore news, social media, tech info and so on. Monitor your investment and set alerts and stop loss orders in place.
If you like my charts an upvote/like is much appreciated.
Happy Trading! ~ CryptoJC
Bitcoin - stick a fork in meWhere are we on the Bitcoin/crypto journey?
This log scale chart roughly guesses at different stages on the Gartner hype cycle. We might still be on the way up to the peak of speculation, we may have peaked, and the chart also imagines that this asset class might continue to grow more modestly than it has previously done, up to September next year. And maybe that's a reasonable assumption, as this might be the year that scaling and mass adoption of blockchain gets cemented.
With Bitcoin reaching its tenth birthday next year, it'll be interesting to find out. Let's see how well this ages.
BTC/USD Logscale Long Term View UpdateI added another alternate scenario for BTC and how it could make new highs within a continuing III wave. I'm still cautious until an impulse shows itself and busts through the annoying downtrend line that's been stopping the bull run in it's tracks.
The primary count is in white, and the other alternate is in yellow if we get that break of the trendline
Will be a nail biting next few days
Hope everyone is well
Ethereum Fractal, Rally vs BTC incoming?Viewing the ETH/BTC chart, I see a clear fractal with a bounce off of the same fib level on it's last major bull run also a golden cross setting up. Looking at this fractal we can see there is a possibility that market sentiment is changing back towards Ethereum in comparison to Bitcoin. It could mean further capitulation for BTC, so we may see ETH not gain much value in USD but see strong relative strength against BTC.
Perspective is everything!Looking at the BTCUSD logarithmic scale changes the perspective quite a bit. This view explains why it turned downwards when we all thought it already broke through the channel. Which it did... in the linear view. When doing a technical analysis, it's a good idea to sometimes take a step back and make sure you've looked at it from all angles. And that's my lesson learned for today.
BTC - Log Scale Trend LinesThis is really interesting to me. Trend lines change position depending on whether you are in log or linear scale.
The trend line from the All Time High hits in a different place then the linear version.
Anyway, I picked a spot (a dip) right about Aug 24th, 2015 as a starting point for that white trend line.
Even though it wanders sometimes above and sometimes below the ever rising wave trends,
the amount of direct hits in support and resistance are too numerous to discount.
And here it is, running right thru my Wave 2 ABC target box... (still holding around my $8,800 target!).
The next interesting thing is it's forthcoming intersection with the log scale purple trend line down from the All Time High.
Make of it what you will. I'm not completely sure how to analyze it's potential... but I DO find it fascinating!
Any thoughts?
Best of luck traders! Wishing you all the best in 2018.
Just another way of thinking for us dreamersHello everyone, i wanted to provide you with another way to think about BTC right now. I've used log scale so everything can be seen. We can see what the past has given us and decide on what the future will hold for us. I just want to post a bullish thought in the sea of red ones right now. Hope you pick your trades carefully and look at both sides. Stay objective friends!
XMR-USD log chart 2017-2019Rough trend analysis, from the start od 2017 monero seems to be moving inside two parallel channels. support trend line turned from red to steeper, blue. upper trend line of the blue channel proved to be resistance throughout the whole 2017. so far xmr-btc pair performed very well and it's important to watch it because it will probably determine through which of those two channels xmr-usd price continues to develop.
LOG SCALE IS KING, DOWNTREND STILL ACTIVE!It turns out the log scale is holding precedence over normal btc charts at this current time. For what seemed to be a very optimistic time for everyone who thought we were out of the downtrend on the regular scale, has quickly realized things are not so simple. Btc has more falling to do, the V shape recovery that we have been doing has been something out of a movie or a dream. In the long run this type of recovery isnt healthy for the growth of bitcoin. If we want to go on another bull run that completely engulfs the last, we are going to have to fall more and gradually build like the previous parabolic curve but on a longer and bigger scale.
The trend is still bear, as confirmed by the recent kiss and plummet from our top downward trendline. I believe this is wave 5, and after the completion of this wave we can be sure we have hit bottom and set ourselves back to being bullish. until then, short every bounce upward to profit and increase your capitol for when the real bottom hits.
Im expecting a bottom anywhere from 3k-5k. however a double bottom would be more than ideal aswell.
MU seems poised for a major upside move...Again!So MU has been insane this year and has been one of my most profitable picks, however, I try to limit greed and sold when my stop losses were triggered, seeming like a decent move for opportunity cost. However, something big here seems to be forming.
Looking at a logarithmic chart on the daily time-span, we see a fantastic channel forming. This stock looks poised for another major move upward. Minimum profit target of $50, but that's if it hits the middle of the pitchfork. In reality, don't be shocked to see 57 or 60 by next earnings. MACD seems like it's about to move bullish again on the daily as well.
On the shorter time frame (30 Minute), ichimoku is looking good, as well as a positive 5-day Moving Average. MU is above its yearly VWAP and so if it gets above 45.50, I think we could see a nice move from MU, a very profitable one.
Keep this one on your watch list guys, the volatility in MU mixed with the undervaluation (and yes, this stock is ridiculously undervalued) means major gains could be heading into our pockets.
Watch XRP!!XRP having grown so much over the past few days, weeks, month is actually pretty difficult to study. We can have a better view of it's price action and possible movements on the log scaled chart.
Let's dive in. It seems that XRP has been in a downward trend since it's all time high, as expected and much in the same way that the whole market has.
XRP broke through many lines of support, and even made it's way below it's 200 EMA much in the same that BTC had. It seems we are seeing an upward trend or reversal. As in all markets we are returning to the mean. Moreover, the MACD has kissed and the RSI is starting to look up. There is still a long ways to go but it's a good sign. Will we be able to break above this 200 EMA which has in turn become a great point of resistance? I don't know. Should we watch it? Of course.
It seems that the downward trend and the EMA + fib level point of resistance all converge. This is going to be very interesting to watch.
Please comment, and challenge my ideas bellow. Let's discuss this.
I am not a financial advisor this is not financial advice.
Best of luck.
X
$Bitcoin Log Scale $1M BTC??While everyone is screaming, "Bubble Popped!" I will be happily buying up your panic.
Based off my TA it looks as if were still in the accumulation phase or at the first sell off.
2018 is the year we see pure Euphoria friends. Does that mean a $1M BTC? We shall find out wont we? ;)
$BTC/USD - D - [TA] Fibonacci Seq./Gann Fan Value ExtrapolationParameters:
Trough: ~$970
Peak: ~$19,600
Fibonacci Time Zone interval: 8 days
Gann Fans: Based upon a 45 degree angle, trough to peak and peak to trough
Fibonacci Circle: From trough to peak
Scale: Log, no auto scale, 20/20/20 margin
Price/bar ratio: 0.0047485
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Predictions
On the Fibonacci time zone, we are shown dramatic price changes per time zone. I believe since we have nearly fully retaced, the value should increase again.
Based on previous data, we can see that there is a slight dip before entering it. It might be the same the other wise.
ON
I've noticed that the current downtrend of $BTC can be either two things: a downtrending channel or a falling wedge. I obviously prefer the latter, but I cannot chart a falling wedge that I like.
All the tools used are based on the Fibonacci Sequence, sans the Ganns fans. I usually use indicators such as overlaid indicators and RSI/OBV, but I felt like all these were unneeded since the drawing tools I will be using create their own supports.
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Right now is yet another crucial time for $BTC. If we break the 38.20% line without any hammer candles, I am expecting a free fall to the 50% retracement, ~$5,000. I want to believe this is our true bottom, based upon tthe support given by the Gann fans intersecting and, retracement. But if we look back to MtGox, it even retraced further under the 50% after a another Fibonacci time zone begun. Spooky!
Because our value exploded in 2017, the Fibonacci circle cannot provide support like it does for stocks; instead, we end up with extremely high volatility and a ~$5,600 bottom until we can breach the next Fibonacci circle line.
Explanation of the tools used. This may be skipped or critiqued.
Fibonacci circle: This was drawn from trough to peak (~$930 -> ~$1950); As you can see, the inner circles were used as supports and resistances; however, because the value jumped so quickly, we aren't afforded the luxury of circle support, only FIbonacci retacement levels. This means we can face many rejections back down to the previous support level, whether that be ~$8,500 or ~$5,600.
Fibonacci Retracement: Throgh to peak, essential tool of traders. Predefines future supports and resistances; can be used to find bottoms or ATHs.
Fibonacci Time Zone: 8 day interval between 0 and 1. I lined it up wth major market movement, with its starting point in a period of high voliatility,
Fibonacci Circle : trough to peak/ till based on the fib sequence; each upcming line is resistance, while the lind before it support.
Gann Fans I verified they were 45 degrees and didn't move the scale afterwards. 1x1 lines were not held, looks like the 1x2 on the top Gann will be new support. Looks good for going side ways at$ $8,000 for now
Volume: A simple way to determine market action, sentiment, and trend.
Thoughts?