LONG GOLD XAUUSD: RISK-OFF ASSETS TRADING CHEAP ON US STOCK DIPGold Positioning - Buy @ Market; 1350TP1 1370TP2 - 1 lot (small) and add double every daily close lower - 1lot, 2lots tomorrow, 4lots the next day:
1. Risk sentiment looks to be turning south, particularly in US equities which have seen monthly lows which is consistent with the broad equity valuation correction lower that i have been expecting for the past few weeks.
- However the highly correlated safe haven assets look to be showing some divergence/ value by also trading lower. Given im a risk-sentiment bear, I back this view with short SPX and long Gold/ YEN.
2. Also Fed unlikely to hike means USD demand is likely to be parred which puts less pressure on gold, but either way, a hike increases risk-off and will drive gold/ haven demand so it is a win win situation.
3. Statistically gold is also a long after trading lower 5 days in a row which for the past 16yrs of data is a 1/100 chance of having a bullish day for the next day (today). Also on the weekly we are 1.3 deviations lower, with the monthly and quaterly at 0.9sd and 0.7sd lower.
4. Risk here looks to be to the 1300 pivot with topside at 1350, 1370 and 1400 - i personally feel we can see gold bid to 1370 on a SPX to 2000 backdrop, a fed hike would have my bets moving SPX well through 2000.
Lon
NFLX - long from 98.87NFLX running within a contracting range & seems it will have a bullish breakout. It also had good insider buying recently. We think it will go up & our target is 110.70
Break of 98.87 will be trade confirmation. For trade we are looking for Oct 105 call, trading for $3.4 now.
You can check our detailed analysis on PAG in the trading room/ Executive summery link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span: 5:50"
Trade Status: Pending
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GBPJPY 4 HOUR LONGPRICE MAKING HIGHER HIGHS AND HIGHER LOWS INDICATING THIS UPTREND IS WELL INTACT. TRENDLINE IS ACTING AS A GOOD SUPPORT SO IF WE GET A PULLBACK INTO THE TRENDLINE/189.000 THEN THAT WILL BE A GOOD LEVEL TO GO LONG. IF PRICE BREAKS RESISTANCE THEN THAT WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE TO GET LONG/ADD POSITION