London
GBPUSDGood morning traders, today the market is moving because we have fundamentals both in the pound now at 7:00 and in the afternoon NY we are going to look for a window of opportunity to take advantage of the day. For today's first leg in London, it presents a bullish scenario. Once I get my psychological point and everyone is induced to buy, we will look for sales.
UK100 FTSE100 - ABC Correction Uderway?Hello Guys,
The yearly Candle is slightly Bullish - but we did not see a break on a closing base of the crucial 7900 area -> ATH.
A Retest of this area would constitute a Bullish setup - which I would be happy to be part of after the last rallye.
Q2 Close - Doji -> might see a consolidation phase from here with a sideways to down mentality - considering the recent gains the bulls had.
The monthly Bias is Bearish. A Bearish Engulfing Pattern (Although a small one) has been formed. The Stochastic confirms a Bearish Bias - not totally contradicting the higher Timeframes! So Bulls be prepared for some drop… Just an idea from my side. A Double Top at 8400 would be a strong sign of Bears being back.
-> For the bulls 7900 has to hold - for the bears 8400.
Thats all for now…
Thanks for reading
The RICS UK House Price Balance - Trending Up For Now The RICS UK House Price Balance
(Released this Thursday 14th Mar 2024 for Feb month)
The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance is a monthly survey that indicates whether more or less surveyors expect housing prices to rise or fall in the U.K. housing market. A positive net balance suggests house price increases, while a negative net balance implies price decreases.
The RICS provides valuable insight into the UK housing markets trend and helps gauge the direction of house price movements whilst also offering insight into consumer spending.
The Chart
The RICS House Price Balance is calculated as the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in housing prices minus the proportion reporting a fall in prices.
It reflects the expected monthly change in national house prices.
Positive vs. Negative Net Balance:
A positive net balance indicates that more surveyors expect price increases, signaling a robust housing market. A negative net balance implies that more surveyors anticipate housing price decreases, indicating a fragile housing market.
Green Area 🟢 = More Surveyors Reporting an Increase in House Prices
Red Area 🔴 = More Surveyors Reporting an decrease House Prices
Grey Areas ⚫️= Recessions
▫️ The RICS fell sharply from April 2022 down to the 0% level in Oct 2022. This was a leading indication of a downward trend UK House market prices (falling from 78% in Apr 2022 to 0% in Oct 2022).
▫️ The RICS fell into the red zone from Oct 2022 forward indicating that houses prices from this date were in net decline (per surveyors responses).
▫️ Almost 12 months later the RICS reached a low of -66% in Sept 2023. Since this date we have started to trend upwards sharply recovering from -66% to -18.4% today. However we remain in net negative territory indicating house prices are still in declining but not as much as before, a change of trend may forming indicating a move to house price appreciation (not confirmed until we move above the 0% level into + territory).
▫️ The Historic Recession Line on the chart illustrates the -63% level which crossed by the RICS at the onset of the 1990 and 2007 recessions (grey areas on chart). We recently penetrated this level moving to -66% in Sept 2023 which historically does not bode well.
This weeks RICS release will be very revealing and could tell us if we have a continuation of the upward trend for UK House prices or if we we remain firmly in negative territory.
Lets see what Thursday brings, a fascinating little metric to help us keep an eye on the property market in the UK and the to get an idea of UK consumer behavior.
PUKA
GBPJPY - GJ 1hrPull back! SELL Now !
80+ pips on GJ
GBPJPY has made a clean red candle below the support. Now that GJ has retested support and rejected it with a nice red candle we can take sell entries. Watch as GJ is near the weekly resistance . This zone has also been confirmed, so we can see a rejection to test previous support areas
tp 1: 4hr and daily support
tp 2: 3.82 fib
tp 3: D1 support, if GJ breaks below this area look to continue selling
*stop loss can be increased. please use proper risk to reward
GBPCHF SHORTSI have analyzed and seen the weekly and daily timeframe being bearish, these are the main timeframes, so I went to the four hour timeframe to look for opportunity to short, then I spot the resistance zone just below the 50 exponential moving average, now expecting a retracement to the moving average then take shorts.
XAUUSD GOLDPair : XAUUSD ( Gold / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves at Demand Zone or Fibonacci Level - 61.80%. Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and Rejection from Lower Trend Line. It has completed the Break of Structure and making its Retracement
GBPAUD: “Break Out” Setup on “Momentum” Entry (37/100)System has identified a “BO” playbook setup and a potential “momentum” shift market entry during the third hour of the LONDON 12-Candle Window.
RISK: 1R
TARGET: 2R
***DISCLAIMER***
This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in LONDON and only using certain pairs. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
GBPAUD: “Breakout” Setup on “Momentum” Entry (38/100)System has identified a “BO” playbook setup and a potential “momentum” shift entry during the second hour of the LONDON 12-Candle Window.
RISK: 1R
TARGET: 2R
***DISCLAIMER***
This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in LONDON and only using only certain pairs. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
GBPAUD: “Reversal” Setup “IB Momentum” Buy Stop Entry (37/100)System has identified a “REV” playbook setup and a potential inside bar breakup for a “momentum” shift buy stop entry during the third hour of the LONDON 12-Candle Window.
RISK: 1R
TARGET: 4R
***DISCLAIMER***
This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in LONDON and only using only certain pairs. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
XU: “BAT” Setup on “Limit” Buy Stop Entry (36/100)System has identified a “B&R” playbook setup and “depletion” entry during the third hour of the LONDON 12-Candle Window.
RISK: 1R
TARGET: 4R
***DISCLAIMER***
This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in LONDON and only using only certain pairs. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
GBPUSD: “618" & "LIBRA" Setup on “Momentum” Entry (34/100)System has identified a “618” fibonacci pullback setup as well as a "LIBRA" or inverse head and shoulders with a potential “momentum” shift market entry during the second hour of the LONDON 12-Candle Window.
RISK: 1R
TARGET: 2R for 618 setup, 4R for LIBRA
***DISCLAIMER***
This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in LONDON and only using all GBP pairs. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
GBPNZD: “618” Setup on “Limit” Buy Entry (34/100)System has identified a “618” Fibonacci retracement setup and executed a buy “limit” entry during the second hour of the LONDON 12-Candle Window.
RISK: 1R
TARGET: 4R
***DISCLAIMER***
This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in LONDON and only using certain pairs. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
GU: “Break & Retest” Setup on “Momentum” Set Stop Entry (33/100)System has identified a “B&R” playbook setup and a potential “momentum” shift sell stop entry during the third hour of the LONDON 12-Candle Window.
RISK: 1R
TARGET: 4R
***DISCLAIMER***
This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in LONDON and only using all GBP pairs. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
GBPNZD: “Break & Retest” Setup on “IBM” Buy Stop Entry (33/100)System has identified a “B&R” setup and a sell stop on the break of the inside bar for an entry executed during the second hour of the LONDON 12-Candle Window.
RISK: 1R
TARGET: 4R
***DISCLAIMER***
This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in LONDON and only using all GBP pairs. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
GA: “Break & Retest” Setup on “Momentum” Buy Stop Entry (32/100)System has identified a “B&R” playbook setup and a potential “momentum” shift buy stop entry during the first hour of the LONDON 12-Candle Window.
RISK: 1R
TARGET: 2R
***DISCLAIMER***
This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in LONDON and only using GBP pairs. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
GA: “Break Out” Setup on “Momentum” Entry (31/100)System has identified a “BO” playbook setup and a potential “momentum” shift market entry during the first hour of the LONDON 12-Candle Window.
RISK: 1R
TARGET: 2R
***DISCLAIMER***
This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in LONDON and only using all GBP pairs. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
EU Long - LDN - Breakeven- PA was rangey during Asia
---- PO3 Accumulation
---- 12 pips
- PA swept WL, EQL and PDL @ 2:40
---- PO3 Manipulation
---- Price dropped into 4H FVG
---- Liq Raid to kick off move
---- 40 pips
- Reversal @ 2:45am
---- 1 X FVG on 5m
---- 40 pips jump and BOS
Entry
---- entered on FVG
Result: Breakeven
---- Price eventually went to 1RR but had no "energy" to go further.
---- Also, DXY showed that it was going bullish.
---- On the DXY 1H, we had a Bu OB, with long wick rejections.
Psychology
---- Bit nervous because the BOS was not there.
---- I also entered early
---- So used small risk