GBPUSD Technical Analysis and OutlookPrevious Observations:
Long-term Downtrend: Confirmed downtrend from mid-2021.
Major Support Breach: Below 1.2000 in late 2022.
Recent Recovery Attempt: Above 1.2400, buying pressure still evident.
Key Resistance Zones (1h): Current level @ 1.2450
Key Resistance Zones (4h): 1.2500-1.2600.
Key Support Zones (Weekly): 1.2000 and 1.1800 - There's room to keep pushing lower.
Potential Buying Climax (Daily, 4h, 1h): Steepness of recent rise hints at possible pullback.
Additional Bearish Confirmations for Potential Shorts :
- Price tested and bounced off the 200 EMA several times in Dec 2024 (4h).
- The pair is currently hovering around the 50% retracement level of the recent short-term decline, a common area for price reversals.
- Bearish divergence confirmations have already presented this week on the hourly time frame. This is a tell-tale sign of institutional orders being filled at specific levels and generation of further supply. (This may be the conclusion of a 'PHASE C' in a redistribution cycle).
- The dollar shows no signs of weakening against the GBP both in technicals as well as fundamentals (Recent data shows the U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs in December, surpassing forecasts and reinforcing a strong dollar narrative).
Conclusions:
Considering that we see a trendline breakout followed by strong bearish reactions which are ideally happening at HTF supply levels, we can assume that the fractal nature of the markets will play out accordingly. We should not ignore the fact that price has reacted from LTF demand or that we saw a recent bullish imbalance filled- entering shorts off the current supply level should only be done with sufficient confirmations (we may have to look at how the London session open influences price action).
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and it's essential to conduct your own thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always use appropriate risk management techniques and trade responsibly.
Londonsession
XAUUSD LND SHORT - 1:5 RR
Directional Bias
London Bias: Bearish with price targeting keyH1/H4 levels at 2690 & 2684
Price Action
Price delivered an aggressive bullish continuation with negative retail sales yesterday. I do see this being the final expansion before a more sustained short term reversal that may continue into building permits data release tonight
I would enter at the current price and be prepared to enter at a pull back towards the 2712.50 level.
With Stop Loss above the Asia high, the potential return on this could be a 1:3 - 1:5
Setup invalidation
If price moves back above the high of Asia, this setup will be invalidated.
XAUUSD Bullish London + Retail Sales Projection (1:5RR)Fundamental Sentiment
Retail Sales Sentiment: With positive inflation data, retail sales are expected to increase tonight, which would be bullish for the dollar.
However, in anticipation of this release, we’re currently seeing a decline in the dollar and a rally in XAUUSD.
Directional Bias
London Bias: Bullish, with price targeting key H1/H4 levels at 2700 and 2710, where a reversal is expected in line with the retail sales release tonight.
Price Action
Price delivered a sharp pullback into a key 30-minute order block and rejected this level.
The rejection led to a break of structure at the start of the London session.
Currently, anticipating a price pullback into the M15 order block at 2695.60. If price retraces into this range, I will look to enter near the intersection at 2693.
Trade Setup
Stop Loss: Below the London open low.
Potential Return: 1:5 risk-to-reward ratio.
Setup Invalidation
If price reaches the target levels of 2700 and 2710 without retesting the 15-minute order block, the setup will be invalidated.
Focus on CADJPY: Pre-London Session AnalysisHi traders,
The focus today is on CADJPY during the pre-London session. I believe we have a bullish setup forming, often referred to as a Late Session Reversal or Late Day Reversal.
Price Analysis
The bullish move in CADJPY began late during the New York session yesterday.
The overall trend has been bearish, with the last leg showing a 3-wave extension below the accumulation zone.
Interestingly, the downtrend's origin was marked by a momentum high, suggesting that price should, at a minimum, retest that level.
So far, we've seen a completed bullish wavestructure with accumulation forming above High 3, indicating strong buyer interest.
The plan is to buy into the next bullish wavestructure once price breaks above the current internal momentum high.
Our initial target is 107.45 (the Momentum High).
Fibonacci Analysis
Using Fibonacci from the Low (0) to High (3), we see indications of further bullish potential.
The High (5) or Internal Momentum High stalled at T1 (23.6% extension) of the 0-3 wave.
This signals a likely continuation with a stronger second wave structure, aiming towards the Major Extension 1 (107.993)
Wishing you a successful trading week!
GOLD INTRADAY CHART UPDATE Gold (XAU/USD) exhibited strong bullish momentum during the London Killzone, as buyers dominated the session. The market capitalized on key liquidity zones, driving prices higher in alignment with the prevailing trend. This surge reflects heightened demand and a confident push by bulls, targeting critical resistance levels. A textbook example of precision trading during one of the most volatile and rewarding times of the day, where opportunities were abundant for those positioned with the flow
London Session Forex Market Analysis: USD Strength Leads the wayHi Traders,
Here’s a quick market analysis for the London session.
We’ve observed some notable movements in the currency pairs under review. As a quick recap from our weekly trade planning session (Portfolio Selection):
Strong currencies: USD remains the leader, followed by JPY, CAD, CHF, and AUD.
Weak currencies: EUR, NZD, and GBP.
The USD's bullish momentum is clearly dominating across the board, providing opportunities to target selling the weaker currencies against the USD.
Remember to approach the markets with a clear plan and stick to your trading plan.
Happy Trading!
London Session Focus: USDJPY Momentum & Potential AUDUSD BuyThis morning during the London session, my primary focus is on the USDJPY. We anticipate a momentum low developing below the current price level.
Additionally, the AUDUSD has flagged a potential buying opportunity around the 0.6450 level.
The EURUSD and GBPUSD (Cable) are also showing potential for bullish moves; however, their price structures are currently less defined than those of the above-mentioned pairs.
Trade wisely and happy trading!
Why Trading Sessions Matter in Forex: Key OverlapsThe Forex market is open 24 hours a day during the weekdays, allowing traders flexibility to trade at any time. However, understanding the best times to trade is essential for effective trading. The market is divided into four main sessions: Sydney, Tokyo, London, and New York, each corresponding to peak activity in key financial centers. Using a Forex Market Time Zone Converter can help traders determine which sessions are active in their local time, making it easier to plan around high-liquidity periods.
Although the market is technically always open, not all trading times are equally profitable. Higher trading volume, which generally occurs during session overlaps, creates ideal conditions for traders. For example, the overlap of the London and New York sessions sees the highest volume, with more than 50% of daily trades occurring in these two centers. Trading at this time, especially with currency pairs like GBP/USD, can lead to tighter spreads and quicker order execution, reducing slippage and increasing the likelihood of profitable trades. Similarly, trading AUD/JPY during the Asian session, when the Tokyo market is active, is advantageous due to higher trading activity for these currencies.
Conversely, trading during times when only one session is active, such as during the Sydney session alone, can result in wider spreads and less market movement, making it harder to achieve profitable trades. Planning trades around high-activity sessions and overlaps is key to effective forex trading.
Trends and Potential Trades in GBPUSD, EURUSD, and USDJPYThis morning's analysis focuses on the current state of play in GBPUSD, EURUSD, and USDJPY.
The overall trend for the USD remains downward, and this week has seen a continuation of that trend.
GBPUSD & EURUSD
In the short term, there is potential for a sell trade (Secondary Trend) as a retracement of the recent bull run towards the buy zone of the bullish wave.
USDJPY
We have observed a strong downward move to T1, and price action on the 15-minute chart suggests a potential buying opportunity after liquidity was grabbed at the low of the Tokyo session.
Buying USDJPY (Secondary Trend) is a possibility, as the wave structure 2 is approaching its low, with wave 3 correction expected to be the next phase.
Happy Trading!
XAUUSD 09102024 30mPrice is still ranging on the HTFs. The daily candle on September 9 closed bullish at 2506.94 .
On the LTFs, price is ranging between 2507.15 and 2500 . This is a high-risk range, so no trades will be executed within this zone.
I will wait for potential buys above 2507.15 , targeting the daily resistance at 2516 and the 30-minute resistance at 2522.35 .
I will look for potential sells below 2500 , targeting the 4-hour support at 2492 , with further downside targets at the 30-minute support of 2486 , or the previous daily low at 2485 .
Multi-Timeframe Live TradingThis strategy follows a multi-timeframe approach, using the 4-hour (H4), 1-hour (H1), and 15-minute (M15) charts.
We start with the H4 timeframe, which gives us the overall market direction. It’s important to trade in line with this timeframe whenever possible.
If there’s no change in direction on the H4, we move to the H1 to guide our next trade decision. If both the H4 and H1 show no change, we continue to follow the H4 trend.
For the Tokyo session, we're focusing on CAD/JPY, which has shifted into a short-term uptrend, despite the H4 and H1 remaining in a downtrend.
The potential trade for the London session is GBP/USD, aiming to trade the end of a bearish wave on the 15-minute chart.
Happy Trading!
Intraday Trend Analysis - CADJPY, GBPUSD & AUDUSDToday, we're analysing CADJPY, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD.
Key Note: Price is the leading indicator and reflects trader perception. We use price structures/wave structures to determine high probability price directions in the short, medium, and long term.
CADJPY:
Bullish trend continuation after a structural reversal.
Look to buy after every pullback above 117.50.
GBPUSD:
Intraday downtrend.
Strong momentum high yesterday.
Sharp rejection during the New York session.
Expect price to trade below 1.2620 after a correction.
AUDUSD:
Strong downtrend.
Directional bearish wave structure.
Look for a correction to break above wave structure 4 before shorting.
High probability of a new momentum low below today's current low.
ICT Long setup London session EURUSD👋Hello Traders,
Our 🖥️ AI system detected that there is an H1 or higher timeframe ICT Long setup in EURUSD for session trade (a couple of hours)
Weekly chart is in down trend!! So that you couid wait for a reversal to downside as a Swing Short trade after this upward pulse alternatively!
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Have a good day!
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EURUSD Short- London Session - 1:6 RR Good Morning London,
The H4 is a currently in a bearish cycle, evidenced by the break of structure that took place last week.
Yesterday, we saw the market begin to give a bearish continuation to the downside but stalled towards the end of New York.
I'm anticipating a bearish continuation this morning based on the following:
30mins BMS with price currently within HVA
Price traded above the 15mins buyside zone EU open where I'm looking to be a seller
H1 and H4 is currently within a bearish cycle with a clear target at the LOR (1.08356)
Potential RR is a 1:6 adjusted to a static RR.
EURUSD SHORT - LONDON SESSION - 1:10 RRWith a broken structure on the HTF, I'm anticipating a bearish reversal. There is a likelihood this reversal might run into the OB created yesterday producing a 1:10 RR. If this were to happen, it will coincide with the red news scheduled in New York session later today. This is a high risk proposition so trade carefully.