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TOTAL Q3 As Q2 closes, Q3 begins... The 2nd quarter of 2025 made up for a lot of the losses of Q1 peaking at $3.5T in the middle of the quarter. Since the peak a steady downtrend channel has formed and continues to be the case going into Q3. What can we expect to see in the next 3 months in the crypto market? For me there are two different scenarios that are bullish, and one that is bearish IMO: Bullish scenario 1 - The most likely scenario I think is a breakout above the downtrend channel and a move towards the range top. My reasoning for this comes from what we know about the driving forces in the market. Just last week BTC ETFs had a $2.2B net inflow, MSTR bought another 4,980BTC for $531.9m, various ETFs on the way for other majors such as SOL. Crucially the M2 money supply is at a record ATH. What that means is huge demand and the means to purchase with a what feels like a deadline closing in. Bullish scenario 2 - We see a trend continuation until the range midpoint which has provided support before. It would coincide with the bottom of the trend channel and therefor I believe would provide a good launchpad for long positions. Bearish scenario - For me this is the least likely situation but one that must be prepared for, a loss of the range midpoint would be a major setback, one that would mean a potential revisit of the range low in a symmetrical move down mirroring Q2s move up. The reason I believe this is the least likely is there is just too much in favor of risk on assets like crypto currently, I've mentioned the fuel that is the M2 money supply piling up to be deployed. A US interest rate cut all but confirmed for September and the institutional race for acquiring these assets before it is too late. In conclusion just keeping it simple on the chart, a breakout above the trend channel is a great long opportunity to target the highs. If BTC continues the grind down a great place for it to turn bullish is the range midpoint as has happened previously. In the event BTC loses the midpoint a retest of the weekly low would make sense to me.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by ProR35
2
TAO 4H - Downtrend bottom? Altcoins have certainly taken a backseat to BTC this cycle with Bitcoin dominance holding around 65%. Despite this, there are still some good setups in altcoins presenting themselves each day, one of which is TAO on the 4H. To me it looks to be in a clear downtrend respecting the upper and lower limits while reacting off of support levels on the way down. As it stands price has reached a key S/R level that has proven to be support in the past and is in conjunction with the lower end of the trend channel. With FOMC only hours away and TAO being at such a critical level this would be an interesting place to do business. A good reaction off the level would kickstart a move towards the trends upper limits. A loss of this level and it's very possible what has been support can turn into resistance. To me the R:R here is good for a long position, the threat to the trade is bearish reaction to FOMC, escalation geo-politically which effects risk-on assets and therefor overalls TA.
by ProR35
2
EURUSD Potential Long then ShortEUR/USD looking to trade around a key supply zone between 1.1450–1.1500. We’re watching for signs of bearish rejection to build a short bias from this area. No trade unless price confirms. Main Setup: If price retests upper zone (~1.1450–1.1500) and shows clear bearish price action, I’ll be looking to enter short. Ideal signs: rejection wicks, SFPs, bearish engulfing, lower timeframe structure shift. Break & Retest Option: If price breaks below 1.1390, a clean bearish retest could offer a continuation short setup. Structure break confirmation is key here. This is a forecast, and trades will be dependent on live PA. If we don’t get confirmation, we don’t force it. Patience is key. DXY Outlook: The Dollar Index looks bearish overall but is currently in a small corrective bounce. A short-term DXY pullback would support a push into EUR/USD’s supply zone — lining up nicely with our plan. If DXY flips back to bullish, that strengthens our short setup.
Short
by SKA_CAPITAL
02/06/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $110,718.68 Last weeks low: $103,065.74 Midpoint: $106,892.21 As we approach the middle of the year, Bitcoin is back above $100,000 despite pulling back from a new ATH of $112,000. In the month of MAY BlackRocks ETF had record inflows of over $6B propelling prices 11% higher. Last week we saw as the month closed and with that it's natural to have a window dressing period that usually leads to de-risking slightly. BTC stayed within the previous weeks range and maintains the pattern of: Chop/consolidation --> expansion to the upside --> chop/consolidation... However in this case the consolidation week had a much larger range than in the past which is a sign to me that the rally is exhausted for now. It's because of this I feel we may see a weekly low break for the first time in a month and get a more meaningful pullback than we've seen since early April. My target would be around the $97,000 area. The case for the bulls is still a convincing one despite some red flags. Record ETF inflows continue to pour, M2 money supply continues to grow and a general shift to risk-on assets is clear. However these are longer term factors and just for this weeks outlook the momentum is with the bears briefly.
by ProR35
2
Bitcoin Daily Technical Overview (BTC/USD)Currently, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading around $104,800. Up slightly but still digesting a sharp reversal that rattled short-term bulls. Recent Price Action: Rejection From $112K Back on 22nd May, Bitcoin surged to a new high near $112,000, fueled by bullish momentum, institutional flows, and strong on-chain accumulation. However, that breakout was swiftly rejected, and BTC fell as low as $103,400. This kind of "bull trap" reversal highlights a few key dynamics: 1) Overextended sentiment: The rally above $110K was not supported by volume or follow-through, suggesting exhaustion. 2) Profit-taking by large holders or institutions likely triggered a cascade of stop-losses, accelerating the decline. 3) Liquidation clusters in leveraged long positions likely exacerbated the drop. Bitcoin is now attempting to reclaim stability around the $104K–$105K range. 🔍 Technical Snapshot - Support Zones at $103,000 and $93,200 - Resistance Levels at $112,000 (ATH) Price is still above the 50 & 200-day SMAs, which could be a bullish longer-term signal. In addition, the price remains above the upper band of the cloud, but momentum is stalling. A decisive bounce off the cloud could reignite bullish sentiment. Or falling into the cloud could trigger more uncertainty and downside. Macro tailwinds: Concerns over U.S. fiscal stability and potential Fed rate cuts could keep Bitcoin attractive as a non-sovereign asset. 📈 Projection Scenarios Bullish Case: If BTC consolidates above $107K, we could see another attempt and retest of $112K. Bearish Case: Failure to hold above $103K could see Bitcoin revisit $100K, and if that breaks, downside opens toward the $93K level. 🧭 Insight & Takeaway The current reversal serves as a healthy reminder that no trend goes up in a straight line. Especially not in crypto. It likely shook out overleveraged longs, reset sentiment, and may give the market room to breathe before the next leg up. The long-term trend remains intact, but expect more volatility before any clean break to new highs. Always DYOR and DYODD and manage your risk.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JinDao_Tai
Daily BTC OverviewThe daily chart in its simplest form can be broken down into this range. Since President Trumps inauguration, BTC has declined from a range high of $108,000 back to the lows of $74,500 closing the FVG caused by the US election rally. After a double bottom Bitcoin mean reverted back to the range midpoint which to me is the most important area on the entire chart because it decides if the bull run can continue or if it dies. I like to keep a close eye on the 200 EMA on multiple timeframes but the 1D is important to gauge the momentum of the move. As the US election results came in a massive push away from this moving average causes the level to steepen in its climb showing strength. Since BTC spent quite some time in the top half of the range the 1D 200 EMA flattens out signaling a loss of momentum, once this level does become flat it no longer provides support. For a bullish cycle to be just that ideally the corrective moves do not spend too much time below this level before expanding above and beyond it once again starting the next leg of the move. A persistent move down below causes a rollover and the cycle looks to be over with a bear market beginning. Bullish scenario - The correction is over and BTC consistently posts HH's & HLs bringing the 1D 200 EMA up with price and continues the previous bullish trend. I would want to see the retest of the midpoint be successful and then move to reclaim the next local high before targeting range high. The bull market correction looks to be over and bullish continuation resumes. Bearish scenario - This move is nothing more than a LH, BTC wicks the supply above midpoint, swing fails back under and continues to make LH's & LL's back down to range low where the 1D 200EMA will have now rolled over providing more of a resistance level. The bear market looks to have begun. I am not here to make a call on where BTC is going next as I do not have that answer, but I do have to plan for each eventuality and that is what I have done here from a TA pint of view. Now it is entirely possible that Geo-political news or an exchange hack etc throws TA out of the window and I have to rethink the plan but in a strictly chart structure perspective this is how I see it. The indicator "TRADING ENVIRONMENT+V1.0" used in the Idea post is now publicly available for use, give it a try and leave your thoughts and suggestions on the post, thank you.
by ProR35
2
19/05/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $105,46 Last weeks low: $100,751.75 Midpoint: $103,372.10 In my weekly outlook post from last week I mentioned how there was a clear pattern of consolidation with a tight range for a week with a week of expansion that followed, and that if the pattern were to continue we would see BTC consolidate around the weekly high. The theory was proven correct on this occasion with a tight range between weekly high and the 0.75 line, as theorized with only momentary dips below the 0.75 line. Now if the pattern were to continue this week would be expansion week, but for me this time it's slightly different as BTC approaches ATH there is a massive level of resistance just above this weeks weekly high. We've seen an initial early attempt to breakout above weekly high and that attempt has so far failed quite aggressively, which leads me to believe there will be volatility this week as both bulls and bears contest this very important area of the chart. For the bulls maintaining momentum and breaking into price discovery with acceptance above $109,000 would be incredibly, the headlines will read new ATH, FOMO kicks in and retail follows etc, we know the drill. For the bears the objective is to hold the line and reject weekly high ($106,000) at all costs and print a strong SFP and unfortunately this does seem viable with $97,000 being the target area IMO. RSI on the daily is around the overbought level, combined with key resistance level a pullback would make sense. For me this week I want to see how ETH and other major alts react to any pullback, do they get bought up with purpose? Is the structure strong to maintain this move or is this a HTF lower high? An interesting week coming up I'm sure. Good luck this week!
by ProR35
4
LINK Daily breakout?One of the most important crypto projects is undoubtedly Chainlink. Having been in a downtrend like must altcoins ever since President Trumps inauguration , LINK looks to finally be ready to exit the bearish trend channel for the first time this calendar year using the newly flipped 1D 200 EMA as a launchpad or is this a local top and the trend continues? For the bulls a double bottom at $10.15 followed by a higher lows and now a higher high is a strong argument for a flip to bullish structure, however a breakout is needed to confirm this bullish flip in structure and with BTC + most majors at local resistance levels and looking in need of a cool off, this may be too much to ask of LINK at this time. The bears would say this is business as usual and a rejection off the upper limit maintains the bearish trend, a loss of the 1D 200 EMA would definitely increase the likeliness this outcome.
BITSTAMP:LINKUSD
by ProR35
05/05/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $97,941.18 Last weeks low: $92,845.16 Midpoint: $95,393.17 FOMC week returns once again on Wednesday, the forecast suggests no change to the interest rate is expected with 4.5% staying as is. The tariff acceleration we saw last month brought into question the timing of rate cuts and if they would be brought forward, it looks like this FOMC is too early to see a cut but it is coming in the future if president Trump gets his way. The chart is an interesting one but one that isn't too surprising. The orderblock that sent Bitcoins price to $74,500 was at ~$97,000, naturally that area would be major resistance and so a huge amount of Stop Losses were placed there, price swept that supply zone wiping out SL and SFP back under the resistance zone, a textbook move. An accumulation under the resistance area would be a sign that the bulls are building to flip the zone, however a gradual sell-off from here would then look like a HTF lower high, a very bearish pattern. Going into the FED interest rate decision there is usually a lot of de-risking/ sidelining from traders until the decision is made, therefor the second half of the week would give us more directional information.
by ProR35
6
28/04/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $95,778.66 Last weeks low: $84,688.21 Midpoint: $90,233.44 Last week Bitcoin ETFs recorded their second highest net inflows ever, $3.06B between April 21st-25th. The result of this buyside volume is evident on the chart as BTC breaks up into the mid $90k's, and in doing so is now back at the level in which BTC fell from originally to hit $74,500. As a result it is fair to say this area will be a big resistance level, but where is new support after this rally? The aggressive nature of last weeks move up has left a number of areas of imbalance that the market does tend to revisit. Just below midpoint we have the $89,000-$90,000 area just below a key S/R level at $91,000. Dipping below this area into the FWB:88K 's briefly to sweep the demand and reclaiming $91,000 would be ideal for the bulls and very healthy for the next rally. A less appealing area of imbalance for the bulls would be towards weekly low of $85,300-$86,300, that would be very painful for anyone longing a retest of the $91,000 area and from a HTF perspective would be a lower high and a SFP of the range midpoint, both bearish signals. The 4H 200 EMA is currently around that area at $87,000 too which would mean losing the level after just climbing back above it. This week I'm looking at that first imbalance area to be a level of support for the next leg up, that's the ideal bullish scenario in my mind. A move below midpoint with acceptance is a red flag on this move and would start to look like a lower high bearish continuation. Good luck this week!
by ProR35
2
DOT RectangleBITGET:DOTUSDT has been trading in a rectangle since October 2023, with important key levels dating all the way back to May 2022. It also recently broke support, swept liquidity to $3.3 and reclaimed the demand zone, setting itself up for a potential rebound. Key Levels to Watch • $3.5-$4.0: Main demand zone • ~$7.5: Rectangle midline + key S/R dating back to May 2022, could act as a strong resistance • $10-$12: Main supply zone Potential targets Measured rectangle targets • Breakout: $20 • Breakdown: $1.0 Other Considerations Another laggard, similar to Filecoin ( ). While it's still unclear whether these coins are rebounding or heading for a breakdown, they could offer some of the highest R/R potentials for longs, and they have very clear invalidations. Triggers • My long trigger for Polkadot would be a break above the 50-day EMA and the demand zone (~$4.0). • Invalidation (and short trigger) would be a sustained break below $3.5 or a lower low below $3.3.
by AliferCrypto