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2022 Crash - My plan to trade the volatility I don't really post these for anyone else but for my own intuition to see how it turns out. But I'll have a go at explaining for anyone who finds it worth reading. I've been waiting for this moment for a long time - and at times, been impatient. But it is now becoming clear where we are in this 'volatility cycle', in comparison to the volatility cycle of the 2008 financial crisis. I'm sure many of us are aware of the risk of serious economic crisis literally around the corner. Not to say I/we know when, or how serious -but rather that I'm pretty cock sure there is elevated risk of serious economic crisis. I won't go too deep into the macros because, well, you should know. And the conclusion I come to with what I think I know is that the fed may have created a multi asset bubble. How? Go google what % of dollars currently in circulation were printed in 2019-20. To conclude, kicking the covid recession can down the road gave us the final over extended bull run of. Bringing the end to a 12 year bull market. This goes for economic cycle too - monetary policy has been largely loose for this entire period (correct me if I'm wrong, I haven't actually checked the data on this.). But I do know it has been loose for a long time and the fed has stood ready to rescue markets and the economy where required to keep things tidy - ie. markets and economies growing. But as we all know, economies go in cycles, too. And after every boom comes a necessary evil - the recession. After every recession comes a boom again. We need a recession - but the further the can is kicked down the road, the higher the risk that it goes deep. Long story short and probably way to brief, the fed and government's over stimulation of the economy plus the supply issues born from pandemic and war have caused dollar devaluation and inflation. I don't care what anyone says - the SPX should not have gained 120% from the Covid lows. This is just silliness because of overstimulation (Michael Burry would agree). Why? How? Go google what % of dollars currently in circulation were printed in 2019-20. I'm surely not the only who sees things this way, right? All of this, plus some amateur looking TA comparison to 2008, and staring at these charts for far too many hours, days, weeks, months, - I think capitulation is around the corner. Terrible news for most, I know. I don't wish for this to happen - I'm just following the fed. And would rather profit from the consequences of policy mistakes (kicking the can down the road) finally being rectified (Quantitative tightening, increasing interest rates = restrictive monetary policy = no more money printer until inflation and demand and prices calm tf down). So, how do I plan to profit from this? Well, volatility takes off to it's high's of $90 when we see capitulation. But, if history rhymes, we will see one last rally in the SPX - and the last sustained drop in volatility before a capitulation event. I am short VIX currently, but stand ready to build long VIX at tops of SPX rallies, eventually neutralising my position towards support, and phasing out shorts and tightening up stops on shorts. I expect this to happen over the next 1-2 months. Let me be clear - the short position is no biggy here - it's just because clearly we may see a relief rally soon, before capitulation. So I expect volatility to drop BEFORE taking off. So I'm short, phasing into long. Then I'll see you all when VIX is at $80-90 - then I will phase out of longs into MAXIMUM short positions on VIX. Let me be clear - I'd short VIX at $80-$90 with everything I have. And I plan to. Seriously. I encourage you to think about it and debate your reasons why that is a bad idea. And with the proceeds from going long VIX through the volatility spike and then shorting VIX at $80-90, once volatility drops to c$35-25, I will start phasing into QQQ - 3 x leveraged Nasdaq 100. Anyway, the anticipated capitulation event could be triggered by any external factor - war escalating, fed increasing rates more than expected, something completely unforeseen etc etc, it's not important - what's important is that the economy has been running hot, inflation is high, asset prices are in bubble territory, and as a result the whole system is vulnerable - we just need something to happen for it to be an excuse for the dominoes to fall as they should at the peak of an economic cycle, and should have happened two years ago. Then, once the dust settles in a couple years (possibly longer depending how bad) we can all grow sustainably (hopefully in more ways than one) again in the next boom cycle. Thank you for reading. This is not financial advice
PEPPERSTONE:VIXLong
by Doge_Dean
DXY finally BEARISH?? Relief for crypto and stocks??So the DXY has been parabolic in recent months showing no weakness at any point, annihilating all other assets, until now? Simple point of view: - The DXY has not made a lower high on the daily timeframe since the start of its bull run around 2 YEARS AGO and it is currently working on one. - To confirm this lower high it would have to break the support line marked 1 and break 110 to make a lower low. - After that, we would look for a test of the 2 trendline with a break suggesting a test of the 3rd. My point of view is that we will stall for a few weeks coming down to the 2nd trendline and possibly the 3rd. But in the long run, the DXY is still looking to go to around 120 at the least so if trading against it one should be very cautious. I will update with a long trade on the GBP and EURUSD pairs should the DXY look weaker.
TVC:DXY
by SynergyTradingSetups
2 TradingView Strategies for trading GoldTradingView offers a great deal of built-in and community-led features, including Indicators and Strategies. It is the latter feature that I will discuss in this trading guide in relation to trading one of our clients' favourite instruments to trade, gold. Strategies are programmes, written in the Pine Script language, which can execute, modify, and close buy and sell orders. The Strategies are programmed to perform these actions automatically when certain conditions are met as it relates to a tradeable asset. You can think of Strategies as automated trading robots. TradingView has thousands of Strategies that you can run on your charts. Strategies are typically created to work best with certain instruments and certain time frames. But bear in mind, that not all Strategies are created equal, and you should be very careful with what Strategies you select and ensure that you back tested them before deciding to implement them in a live trading environment. With the cautions out of the way, lets now dive into two TradingView Strategies that are popular with gold traders. Buy - Take Profit OR Stop Loss % Based (BTP/SLB) The BTP/SLB Strategy will enter sell trades when the price of gold closes above the look-back period’s 200 SMA. Once the script enters a trade, the BTP/SLB will hold the trade until it hits its percentage-based stop loss or take profit level. Using TradingView’s Beta ‘Deep Backtesting’ feature, we can see that the 30-minute time frame appears to be one of the most successful periods to apply this Strategy on. It might pay to alter the Stop loss percentage from the default 2% in order to maximise the Strategies win rate. A note caution: the Strategy appears to disregard the trend direction of the SMA. We can see that the Strategy frequently enter losing trades when the market is in a longer-term upwards trend (see the candles around late-July to early-August). To overcome this limitation, it might be wise to simply apply the Strategy to your chart without activating it, so that you can manually enter a trade after the Strategies conditions are met, but you can also eye a general downtrend over a longer-term timeframe. XAU/USD RSI EMA 1hour strategy The XAU/USD RSI EMA 1hour Strategy follows some simple rules using data from an RSI and an EMA. When the price of gold is above the EMA and the RSI indicates high oversold conditions, then the Strategy enters a long trade. Conversely, when the price of gold is below the EMA and the RSI indicates low oversold conditions, then the Strategy enters a short trade. I would suggest that you ignore the name of this Strategy and explore the use of this Strategy on lower, especially if you are interested in entering and exiting trades frequently. However, the accuracy of the Strategy may change on these different time frames, but an exploration could prove fruitful under the right conditions.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
BTC Between MA21 and MA50 (Day TF) - Good Chance for LONGHello, I am Tommy. I am using a Naked-Chart! It's very easy to follow. BTC is moving between MA21 and MA50 (of Timeframe Day). The price is currently at a slight support area ~ 19,5xx In my experience, when the price enters this area (between the MA21 and MA50) from below both lines, and not for the first time, there is a high probability that the price will touch and tend to break out of the MA50. > Our first target will be at the MA50 for a long position. > Entry at 19,500 > STL: 19,100 (Day candle closes below MA21) Happy trading!
Long
by BuyDinhSellDay
4
BITCOIN Volatility on its wayBINANCE:BTCBUSD The fundamentals for bitcoin are getting better everyday, countries adopting it, bitcoin is seen as a good hedge against growing inflation and destruction of local currencys. Long term bullish for bitcoin, dollar cost averaging your buys into btc is the best way forward. As for the short term the charts are indicating a big move is coming, cpi data out within 24 hours, fed could decide bitcoins short term fate, as well as the $dxy. US sept producer prices rise 8.5% Y/Y; EST.8.4%, RISE 0.4% M/M hold for now and monitor the data, or dollar cost in your buys for safest bet.
B
by TechnicallyBullish
Trading like the banks do. Picking off liquidity.So I just got back from a quick appointment that I had to make outside the office and I came back to find very nice surprise. Several of you have already found the heikin-ashi algo isolator release and have already started boosting it. Thank you to all who currently have done that. Along with my return to my home office I found a few messages on my screen asking about something they saw in the last video. For example one of the messages on the screen in my videos said "Trade money like Banks do, picking off liquidity, picking up several positions in a downtrend." And one of the messages was asking "Why would I sell if I already sold and I'm currently in a down trend?" So basically they were asking how do you sell twice. I guess the same question would apply if they saw a buy alert show up in an uptrend and another buy alert show up immediately after that in an uptrend. What's Happening Here is that you are actually in either a very large or small range or you were in a pause of the up or down trend. When it comes to Banks and institutions and algorithmic trading machines what they do is they make several purchases of stock at different levels and they do it over a set period of time. They enter multiple positions in the same direction only to sell off all their positions when they get to the price that they want to get to. So just because you entered a short trade doesn't mean you can't buy up more positions on the way down and just because you enter the wrong trade doesn't mean you can't buy more positions on the way up. As long as you close off all the positions lower than all of the positions you picked up In a downtrend and clothes off all of the positions higher than all of the positions that you picked up in an uptrend. I hope you understand that. Go ahead and ask below if you need any clarification. The bottom line is if you're going short you don't have to go short just once, you can go short multiple times as long as the trend keeps going down. And just the opposite for long trades. So thanks again to everybody who is scooping up this oscillator. I hope you're enjoying it.
by CoffeeshopCrypto
16