Long-short
ETHUSDT - DUMP before the PUMP 📉📈Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year.
A quick look at potential short term price action for Ethereum / ETHUSDT . There could be a chance for a quick swing trade here.
In this video, I briefly discuss the technique I use to get to the short term price target - the 20d Moving Average. This technique involves using Bollinger Bands with Fibonacci Retracement lines and multiple indicator Phoenix Ascending which contains the LSMA, RSI and EMA.
This video is my short term prediction for ETHUSD. However, from a macro perspective, I believe that we are currently in the market cycle of accumulation. This is according to the Wyckoff Method market phases. The four phases of the market cycle are accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. During the accumulation phase, a new cycle begins that generates a trading range. This often creates a strong resistance zone / failure point / spring . This is the precursor to another bull cycle, but it can last an extended period of time. The final moments of this phase will attract algorithm trading driven stop hunting , often observed near downtrend lows, where price drops just underneath key support and then triggers a sell-off. This is followed by a recovery wave that lifts the price back above support.
Incase you missed it - What Is Stop Hunt ?
Stop hunting is a strategy that attempts to force traders out of their positions by driving the price of an asset to a level where many people have chosen to set stop-loss orders. The triggering of many stop losses at once typically creates high volatility and this is often very obvious during the accumulation phase of the Wyckoff Method. This implies that there may be volatility during this phase as the price constantly rises and falls. If we take all of the above into consideration, Ethereum can still drop and increase (within a range) multiple times until a clear bottom is established and the next markup phase / bull cycle starts. This makes for a great time to accumulate, and even do a few swing trades with relatively low risk.
Also check out this related idea on Cardano / ADAUSDT :
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GBPUSD Short Setup - Dollar BullsGBPUSD H4
Still trading south of 1.20, therefore using 1.20 as key resistance. Strong confluence zone as already annotated. GU is practically the mirror image here of DXY. A nice 40 pip drop early morning rejection 1.20 when markets opened.
Looking to see some resistance yet again, and some driving volume to sink cable.
I'm long bitcoin againI have a few indicators that tell me whenever i should accumulate or distribute.
On the Weekly timeframe:
1. Does my Accumulation/Distribution band show Red or Green.
If Red:
2. Is RSI above 70 and RSI SMA above 50?
3. DISTRIBUTE
If Green:
2. Is RSI under 30 and RSI SMA under 50?
3. Is BTC price +- 80% down from ATH?
4. did 50 & 100 SMA Death cross happen?
5. ACCUMULATE
There is a few more things i take into account but this is the minimun needed that worked in the past and i believe will work again in the future.
For now i'm DCA'ing in slowly untill we see a Death cross on the 50 & 100 SMA AND/OR a drop to -80% from ATH.
If you have any questions feel free to contact me
We will be long-short-longThat is long in the short-term (until the Fed), short in the medium-term (until October), and long in the long-term (until next Spring).
Through some creative analysis, I have us in Primary wave 4, Intermediate wave C, and Minor wave 2.
I expect Minor wave 2 to end tomorrow, likely earlier in the day and then we begin Minor wave 3 up toward 3975. It may take 2-3 days until wave 3 ends. Wave 4 will likely be a day long and I have currently plotted it halfway between the projected movement of wave 3. The final wave 5 will likely last around 2 days. Based on prior wave C movement, the strongest model agreement has wave C lasting 7 days. I figure 7-9 is safe. Based on prior wave 4 movement, the overall move has the most model agreement at 28 days. I think we will fall short of this mark as the Fed rate hike occurs two days prior to this point. We could drop into the rate hike and finish 4 with a wave 5 up after the hike if “it’s not as bad as forecasted,” but most of us are ready for the 100+ basis point future.
Wave 3s ending in 4C3 tend to extend 101% beyond wave 1’s movement 75% of the time (1st Quartile), beyond 112.68% on 50% of the occasions (2nd Quartile / Median) and 25% of the time (3rd Quartile) it will extend 125.81%. Wave 4s ending in 2A4 tend to retrace the wave 3 in which they follow by 29.58% on 75% of occasions (1st Quartile), retrace 54.82% half of the time (2nd Quartile / Median), retrace 84.72% on a quarter of occurrences (3rd Quartile).
We will likely top out above 4000, but how much further remains unknown. Early earnings may be paltry, but earnings forecasts post-Fed rate hike will likely take us down through 3400 over the next 2-3 months.
Ethereum at the Gates!We see that we have reached the end of the ascending channel in Ethereum , and if this ascending channel is broken down, it seems inevitable that the price level of $775, which is just fib support, will come.
We clearly observe the interaction of 3 separate support and resistance levels with the price.
As long as the vitally important 3rd level is not broken upwards, the channel structure we are in is suitable to be broken downwards.
In addition, the 50-day simple moving average acts as a resistance element for us.
XAU/USD daily demand - key levelXAUUSD -
Gold has been heavily bearish because of various fundamental reasons. PA has now made its way down to a key level and also daily demand, so i'd expect to see a pull back possibly back into the 1785 region. will be waiting for confirmations on potential long entry for counter trend buys. Bare in mind there is trend line liquidity which price could take out before continuing bearish.
Potential Trade on USDCAD Based on Higher TF structure of USDCAD, It is yet to retest zones that have high liquidity needed for further downside move. This is a potential trade set up of the pair. TRADE what you see not what you feel.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS ONLY A POSSIBILITY not a guarantee. The point of technical analysis is to understand structure and have clarity of the charts not so much predicting the chart but equip us for better reaction.
$BTC Expected Bottom Formation$BTC failed to break the Inverted Head and Shoulder on 4hr, as it did near the $30k range (same thing I predicted earlier in the group).
The targets are still the same as those shared in the group.
Will update the targets (if needed) when we reach the $16-17k range, but as of now, no bull sign yet.
The bottom has not formed yet! That is 100% confirmed based on analytical data, bear divergences everywhere, bearish indicators, whales' movement, no volume, etc.
The only reason we see an upside in the price movement is that the US has announced more jobs (300k+) than it was supposed to announce (200-250k).
DYOR!
Please like, comment, share, and follow if you like my idea.
(Check out the next update for the in-depth analysis I did earlier)
Theory 3 of 3 for SPX--MOST LIKELYI have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories.
THEORY THREE: Current position is Primary wave 4 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2.
Theory 3 is on a faster path while the wave structure is similar to Theory 2. The preliminary bear market bottom would be in somewhere between Election Day 2024 and March 2025. The path for the next month would see the market move up for a few more weeks as it attempts to finish Primary wave 4 (SKY BLUE). It appears Intermediate wave A (PINK) has concluded and it is even possible the low 2 days later was the end of Intermediate wave B down. It remains possible for further downswing this week to complete Intermediate wave B but it likely will not pass below the June low at 3636.87. Wave B CAN go below this level but it would bounce above it quickly. Early models have Primary wave 4 lasting around 28 days, we are 9 days into it so far.
IMPORTANT MOVES:
There are no duration restrictions on future movement at this time. A break above 3945 before a drop below 3636 would continue to keep this theory in play.
PROS:
This model appears to be riding election cycles. After Primary wave 4 ends, the market will swoon down again for a few more months with the bottom occurring around October/November this year. The 6-12 months afterward would move up before the final leg down takes the market to around 2400. The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. A 2-4 year correction makes more sense for this micro wave set we are likely in.
CONS:
Negatives are not glaring with this model at this time.
TSLA long/short playTesla testing support, if it holds we might see small rally to test $763 (previous highs)
If support fail then the we have a gap to next support at around $560.
I'm leaning to the Long side of the trade with stop just below the support. But if the stop will be triggered will be flipping to he short side of the trade.
NASDAQ:TSLA
People. You need to see this trendline!👀👀👀Reasons to take long IF BTC will squeeze back to daily VWAP:
⭐️ Trendline 2 months old
⭐️ Formation is clean
⭐️ We are in the end of formation
⭐️ 6th touch
⭐️ Price is squeezing to the trendline
⭐️ 30 ATR
⭐️ Over VWAP
If BTC will squeeze down to weekly VWAP, I'll take trendline breakdown.
Will enter when price squeezes to the level on 5m timeframe, the base will form and the tape will get faster.
If you don't understand the previous sentence, just use swing stop-loss 3-5%
Fix profit by parts:
1% - 1/3
2% - 1/3, stoploss to breakeven
What's left, hold to the maximum
What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌
If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones