Ethereum vs. Bitcoin: Diverging Paths of Long-Term HoldersThe behavior of long-term holders is a key indicator for understanding where we are in the market cycle. Here’s why : As prices rise, long-term holders start selling the assets they’ve accumulated over time. Historical data shows that this profit-taking usually begins in the early stages of a bull market and continues past the cycle peak. Monitoring this activity can help estimate market peaks with greater accuracy.
Given Bitcoin's significant influence over the rest of the market, it is often the most straightforward asset to use for measuring these cycles, as other cryptocurrencies tend to follow Bitcoin’s lead.
However, examining this data for Ethereum reveals an intriguing divergence. While long-term Bitcoin holders began selling in January, long-term Ethereum holders have continued to accumulate. This contrasts sharply with their behavior in the last cycle, where it closely mirrored that of Bitcoin holders.
The reason for this shift? Numerous yield opportunities have emerged for Ethereum, making it more profitable to hold. Currently, 27.5% of the total CRYPTOCAP:ETH supply is staked, with 16.3% of this staked ETH being restaked through protocols like Eigenlayer. This highlights the strong appetite for native yield among ETH holders.
Additionally, long-term holders may be waiting for the Ethereum ETF approval and new all-time highs before deciding to sell.
Long-term-trading
reversal in long trend is incoming 🔥hello my friend's I hope you all doing grate.
in the BTC chart 📊 I see that big money is now collect the liquidity that its seeking for and whenever is that happening usually ends up with changes with shift in market structure in long term trend.
so if u don't have any Bitcoin now I the time to buy otherwise u might end up with regret.
cheers 🥂 to all traders around the world
CADJPY ASCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKOUTpair: CADJPY
Timeframe: 1D , 4H
Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, ascending triangle pattern
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Key Takeaway: seen alot of consolidation for this pair and alot of fakeouts from resistance, we are hoping for a push through this level to see a bullish swing that we can take advantage of
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Level needed: need a close by 105.915
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Trade: Long
RISK:REWARD 1:6
SL: 14
TP: 155
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DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
"KPIT" Continue in it's UpTrend"UpTrend" & Above "180 MA" Means a Long Term Positive Trend.
Now RSI Is Low Around @49.9 & You can set a stop loss below or At Price @282.50 ( "Low Risk", "High Reward" Trade Setup).
btc bullish divergenceNow it is important to monitor the volume of trade. On the two-hour interval, we see that the last two red candles were closed by "bullish engulfing", which tells us that there are more buyers, which means that the price will rise. open deals at 5630, stop-loss at the level of 5350.
Bitcoin fighting to keep it's trend.Bitcoin's gorgeous rally created a lot of friends but also made a lot of enemies..
It's not about the 'hash' or the 'Hard Fork' it matters who is behind all that and what purposes has.
To be more specific bitcoin is a digital decentralized cryptocurrency that cannot be controlled by institutions.I know what you thinking,yes there are a lot of digital cryptocurrencies but none gathered the value that Bitcoin did and traded like it.
So please take a deep thought behind these facts concerning Bitcoin recently.
TECHNICALLY
Bitcoin keeps it's upward channel that started since early's 2016,
Well above it's 200MA
We have a good support at 920 area and second support at 61,8% FIB Retracement
We also see a consolidation right now at 50% FIB Retracement at 1030 area.
First resistance at 1100 area.
Second strong resistance 1140 area well respected and last 1200area 23,6%FIB Retracement.
Volume has signs of weakening.
HAPPY TRADING GUYS!
U.S. Dollar Index Weekly Outlook + BIG Long Move Possible?The US-Dollar Index is in an intact impulsive long trend. After the weekly break of the sideways range a pull back towards the break out level or in other words around 100-100.5 zone was initiated.The possible upside breakout of the 1 ½ - year sideways range also underlines the current situation within the US-Dollar. After the Federal Reserve stopped QE 3 in October 2014 and started to think about rising rates the currency moved in a sideways range of uncertainty about a next potential rate hike. As the FED said that economic data should be waited to recover. For one and a half year the market moved in a range between 92-100. This is also shown in all USD-crosses such as the EUR/USD, that the USD made choppy moves on weekly time frames.
After the market indicated an upside move and a potential fundamental driver of the US election, the market finally broke out of the sideways range and closed above 100 on a weekly basis which confirmed the breakout. After the FED rose rates in December 2016 for another 25 basis points, market reacted with further upside movement. This fundamental driver gave technicals a sustainable kick to the upside. For the near term, fundamental drivers play with the question of the next rate hike by the FED and tax policy by President Trump, which will affect the US-Dollar heavily as well. We definitely keep an eye when evaluating new mid-longterm bullish US-Dollar trades.
However, currently market flirts again with the break out zone and seems to start its bullish move to the upside. BUT for an clear confirmation of a new start of an impulsive move the local highs ofaround 103 should be broken with a weekly close price, then we could easily see next weekly resistance of 107.75-110 with a potential pullback before. 107.75-110 is the price target of the projection from the sideways range. Bullish candle formation in weekly chart confirms that this breakout might not be a fake one. This indication told us that the uptrend might give a little pullback to the downside before continue due to an overbought market. This scenario is currently for some weeks of flirting with the resistance. We currently await for two scenarios for the DXY. Two scenarios:
- Market finds support and initiates further bullish movement and breaks the resistance zone of local highs at 103.8 (break out highs). This would be a continuation move that the next impulsive the long side has been confirmed.
- Market corrects a little further to the downside and holds support around drawn trend line after initiating further bullish momentum
We remain bullish on long-term.
As we look at our intermarket indications we could get confirmed with our statement, as they currently cooling down from capital outflow.
We always mention the importance of intermarket flows, as we believe that investors only repark their money due to sentiment and global macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, we always keep in mind the in-and outflows with the help of our intermarket indications that lead us towards better timing when making a trading decision. As you might know that timing is one of the most important things when it comes to trading.
As seen in the chart, our two of our intermarket indications showing a cool down of capital outflows and currently moving in buying territory which might indicate a soon inflow of capital towards other asset classes. We take into account always the BIG 4: Currencies, Bonds, Stocks and Commodities.
As always, trading is a probability game nobody is 100% and always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care.
Elliott Wave Analysis & Forecast, #MSFT, M1, 20160404Refer to my previous Monthly analysis on January, 2016, We slightly changed in our short term view. red wave 5 of green wave iii of blue wave 1 has not been finished yet and we expect one more upside rally to finish red wave 5.
Once this red wave 5 finished we will see correction in green wave iv towards 40-41 area where we expect that this share placed long term bottom before uptrend will resume towards 100 or even above. We saw first correction in green wave ii is simple so we can expect complex correction in green wave iv.
muhiuddin