Buying Retracement on GBPNZD
Price has been moving in a down trend the previous days.
Now with the new low price has formed, and a break of the previous low, I am expecting price to make a retracement and ultimately form another lower high.
Once price broke past the previous low and closed outside of the trend line, price found support at the demand level.
If you move to the 4 hour time frame it appears that a double bottom may be trying to form which will be the catalyst for the move to the upside .
Price will either meet resistance at the previous low which is also the 38.2 fib level or i can see price retracing to the golden area 50.0-61.8 fib level finding support, and possibly transition to a major uptrend.
There also appears to be bullish divergence.
Longbpnzd
LONG GBPNZD - STRAT TRADE: 99.01% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL *Long GBPNZD:
1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) GBPNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.99%, hence there is a implied 99% chance of reversal on the daily.
2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1.5SD - with 1m heavily over sold at -2SD.
3. Fundamentally Sterling looks a little over-offered, with the reason for the aggressive move lower uncertain at best imo - whilst today we saw the kiwi/ GDT Price index trade much softer than recent months which is a positive to be short kiwi tactically.
4. Technically there is also a triple bottom forming at the 1.77 level (previous 2 support lows) which is even more reason to take a long position.
Trading Strategy:
1. Buy GBPNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower. TP is the next daily close higher.
Any questions please ask!