HDFCBANK Defies Market Panic Amid Election Volatility?HDFCBANK Stock Analysis – June 2024
Overview:
On May 30, 2024, the HDFCBANK spot closed at 1514.85 with an ATM IV of 25.69. According to my algorithm, the VVIX (VolatilityVision Index) was at 25.5614, indicating that bullish investors in this stock were not panicking over the impending Lok Sabha election results on June 4, 2024.
Key Levels:
- Probable Resistance: 1600.10
- Ultimate Breakdown Level (Black Swan Event): 1239.65
- Crucial Midpoint: 1419.20 (derived from the average of the resistance and breakdown levels)
Price Action Analysis:
Post-May 30, 2024, these levels showed significant correlation with market movements:
- June 3, 2024: Following stellar exit polls, HDFCBANK spot opened at 1599, which was also the day's high, demonstrating respect for the resistance at 1600.10. The stock closed at 1572.20.
- June 4, 2024 (Election Results Day): The stock opened at 1557.00, peaked at 1559.00, and then collapsed to a low of 1454.00. This action again showed respect for the midpoint price of 1419.20, implying that traders bought the dip with a stop-loss at this level.
Outlook:
If HDFCBANK spot does not test the midpoint of 1419.20, I expect the stock to retest the resistance at 1600.10. This is my personal view, and I am not suggesting anyone follow this analysis without their own due diligence.
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