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Longidea

TLT-Looking to buy if support holds.Technically speaking The ~116 level contains a confluence of support. The trendline going back to 2011 and the low prints going back to 2015 should provide support. We shall see. On the updside, 128 is the first level of resistance. What to do? I will be looking to dips around the 116 level, targeting a move back toward 128. My willingness to buy will depend on price action around the 116 level. I will update this chart when things change.
NASDAQ:TLT
by CalebDismuke
Here's why GoPro shorts could get crushed.The Technical Outlook Per the chart above, the next significant level is the high print going back to October of 2015. That equates to a ~61% gain from current levels. As noted above, 33% of the float is short, which tells me there is POTENTIAL for more upside. Let's look at GoPro's recent quarter. Per Bloomberg - "Revenue will be $190 million to $210 million in the first quarter, GoPro said in a statement Thursday after the markets closed. Analysts were expecting $267.6 million, on average. In the fourth quarter, sales rose 24 percent to $540.6 million, also missing analysts’ average estimate for $573.3 million". In addition, they have had a string a bad news starting in November when they had to recall their Karma drone after some starting FALLING OUT OF THE SKY due to inefficient battery life. They lowered guidance on gross margin and are cutting cost aggressively. The article noted they are pairing back their ambitions to build a media platform around their action videos. The best line in the article was this- "For now, the company is working on making the process of using a GoPro camera from capture to sharing as easy as possible." This would give me hope they are starting to concentrate on delighting their core customers instead of extending their product line in categories where they will not win the share of mind. If the stock can close the week up in spite of a terrible quarter, that would tell me the line of least resistance might be higher. If this provided any value, please "like"
NASDAQ:GPROLong
by CalebDismuke
Is Under Armour a buy at (21.50)?Under Armor missed their revenue target after 26 consecutive quarters of at least 20% revenue growth. Since trading above $52.50 in 2015, their shares have fallen 60%, now trading under $22.00. This article from spring of last year sums up the "athletic wear" market pretty well. For me, I think this stock needs some time to settle down. The article speaks about saturation in the athletic wear market. At first Nike, Under Armour, and few others dominated the space. Soon though, other brands entered and stores started to private label their own lines. Prices have came down. So, is this just a cycle that needs some time weed out the weak hands? Probably. Most of the fundamental news I read is negative on this stock and clothing in general. Contrarian play? Maybe This company is currently worth 8.7 billion. Is that a reasonable valuation based on what we know? Possibly. Here is my thinking: Warren Buffet in his 1991 annual letter spoke about the d/f between an "economic franchise" and a "business". He stated and economic franchise arises from a product or service that (1) is needed or desired; (2) is thought by it's customers to have no close substitutes; (3) is not subject to price regulation. In contrast a "business" earns exceptional profits only if it is the low cost operator or if supply of its product or service is tight. He noted the later usually does not last and being the low cost operator can work if superior management is at the helm. So when we apply the "economic franchise" test to Under Armour what do we get using reasonable assumptions. (1) I believe their product is needed and desired. (2) I think some customers are loyal, but at scale I am not sure if that is true? (3) They cannot price their product aggressively. See the linked article. Competition has forced prices lower. To wrap up: I believe they have a strong enough brand that their products will be needed and desired in the future. Unlike some companies that entered the "athleisure" category, I believe it is likely they will survive a washout, if one comes. Is 8.7 billion a fair price to pay? This where investing is so fun. There is a range of outcomes over the long term, from going to zero(0% probability IMO) to being worth 100 billion(very low probability IMO) and a range of everything in between. I just ask this, is it a reasonable probability that this company will be worth more than 8.7 billion in 3,5, or 10 years. Yes, I think that is reasonable. Do you?
NYSE:UAA
by CalebDismuke