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LONGSHORTRATIO

BTC - RETRACEMENT OCCURREDwe are exactly on the 21MA daily. Many are scared now, but until we hold this level, we can consider the movement as a normal and healthy retracement and the uptrend can continue. It was too violent to be "real". Also, long/short ratio (adjusted for the holders) reached levels lower than those during the 13th of March due to Covid today. Too much. I still think that a retest of the 12k-14k region will occur, but not immediately, not in November. I believe we still have some upward profit to squeeze. As usual, I am operating exactly as I write. If you follow, ofc set a tight stop loss, but let some freedom of move (16.6k in my case) as this is a risky trade. No risk no gain. But calculated risk, always.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGSLong
by edutradinguru
BTC- PayPal hype could be as big as BTC ETF hypeThe drop to 9.2k-9.5k never happened and the recent consolidation above 10k demonstrated bull's conviction. I expect the incoming shallow pullback and it will be even more bullish if weekly candle can close between 12k-12.5k. First MicroStrategy, then Square and now PayPal. PayPal supports 26 millions merchants and has 300 millions + customer accounts. Its announcement to support crypto payment couldn't come at better time. Moreover, JPMorgan jumped on the bandwagon by making optimistic prediction of BTC's upward price potential this week. Other on-chain indicators also point to the increase of whale hodlers. Furthermore, institutional demand continues to go up while exchange reserve continue to drop. Overall, I think BTC is making a steady progress and we are finally getting one step closer to break through the 3 year consolidation.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by Libratus
Longs; savior or killerLook at the ratio between longs/short over time and take a look at Bitcoin over same time. In my opinion we have legit bottom at 4k area, built in march 2019. From 4k and up to 14k, there is a great mix of real demand, and lot of long- and short gambling. In this range of price, we can se four bigger actions (compared BTC with Long/Short ratio) and how price reacted to that. Bitcoin is tangled between different MA's, specially under the daily MA200 which is moving towards a potential death cross with daily MA100. Have Longs really accumulated well or have they misjudged the situation a bit? How will they act in a potential setback? Let me know what you guys think.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS
by Cryptovicci
2
Perfect bull flagETH is currently in a bull flag that is holding up very neatly. BTC is in a similar bull flag that is also holding up perfectly. We can see on the smaller time frames that ETH is really eager to break out on the upside. Everytime BTC goes up a little ETH goes up way more. The ETH bull flag has an upward trend whereas the BTC flag has a flat trend. (I don't how how to add both charts in this idea sorry, tips welcome!) We're just waiting for BTC to make a move towards the upside of the channel and then out of it, allowing ETH to shoot up too. Check out this idea to see that history is in our favor for a breakout. The BTC LONG/SHORT ratio is also very much in our favor! Let's see what the whales have in mind for us.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Shynaxo
Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 351)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Sawcruhteez Strategies: Comprehensive Trading Strategy - Consensio | Comprehensive Trading Process | How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods Consensio: Fully Bullish Patterns: Start of a 4h bear channel Horizontals: R: $11,636 | S: $11,341 Trendline: Parallel Channel Parabolic SAR: In a recent podcast Tyler and I analyzed the way that Trading View is calculating the SAR. We have referred to original Welles Wilder documentation and determined that Trading View is not calculating it correctly based on the original formula. Therefore I am using the original calculation which puts the Weekly SAR at $13,880 instead of $10,452 which is where Trading View puts it.To learn more about the Parabolic SAR calculation click here and stay tuned for our solution. We plan to provide an alternative script and make it available for free on TV within the next week. Futures Curve: Contango with 3.96% spread Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0259% BTCUSDSHORTS: I am no longer going to track the BTCUSDSHORT ticker which gathers data from Bitfinex. That is due to the ability to claim a position on that exchange opposed to closing. This has huge effects on how the long:short ratio is calculated. So much so that I no longer think it is a good metric to track. Click here to learn more about claiming vs closing and how it affects long:short date. TD’ Sequential: Just got a weekly combo 13 and aggressive 13. Weekly A13 called the bottom. Ichimoku Cloud: Weekly wicked off the top of the cloud perfectly. Daily bearish TK cross above the cloud. 4h no trade zone. Relative Strength Index: Average Directional Index: Weekly is testing major resistance which indicates an exhausted trend. Daily rolled over, if it can roll back up > 20 then it would be a strong sign of continuation. Until then it is a strong indicator of continued consolidation / correction. Price Action: 24h: +2.32% | 2w: +6.28% | 1m: +50.33% Bollinger Bands: Testing daily MA Stochastic Oscillator: First weekly sell signal since December 2017 Summary: The most important technical to me right now is the weekly high volume shooting star that we got last Sunday. Shooting star and dragonfly dojis are generally my single most important indicator or a short - medium term reversal. That is especially true when on high volume. Last week’s bearish wick and above average selling volume are the main reasons why I am expecting a major correction over the following weeks - months. That being said right now is the time to pay very close attention. If we can breakthrough the top of the bear channel and then get back above $12,000 then all signs would be a go for continuation. I am not expecting that but I am preparing for it. I have a strong bearish bias due to the high volume shooting star and therefore I have been selling spot and opening shorts over the past week. If the current market structure breaks to the upside then it is essential I am prepared to close shorts and reopen longs. Again I do not expect that but I do want to prepare for it. As it stands I am confident that we will get another leg down to retest four figures and I have been positioning myself accordingly. That being said I am diligently preparing for alternative outcomes. Strong opinions loosely held
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
11
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 197)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “BTC’ looks like it has found support and should bounce to the $6,750 area before continuing the downtrend. However, alts are currently breaking down and there is a good chance that they drag BTC’ down with them.” / Short ETH:USD. Took profit on 33% of position improving my average cost basis to $317.37 per ETH. Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,150 - $6,180 | R: $6,290 BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to be pulling back and forming a lower high. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% (first time in a while it hasn’t been shorts paying longs) 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -3.87% | 26 = -5.85% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -8.96% | 128 = -11.55% Volume: Still waiting for volume spike to set off the next move FIB’s: 0.886 = $6,137 | 0.786 = $6,383 Candlestick analysis: Inverted hammer then a doji now a hammer is forming. Indicates indecision and upcoming volatility Ichimoku Cloud: 4h C-Clamp TD’ Sequential: Current candle will price flip if it closes > $6,181. Red 9 on the 4 hour. Visible Range: Currently testing point of control (POC) with 2m - 1y lookback. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = +/- 0 | 1w = -6.52% | 2w = -10.34% | 1m = -0.63% Bollinger Bands: After testing the bottom band a return to the MA at $6,739 is to be expected Trendline: N/A Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Up = $7,426 | Down = $5,866 On Balance Volume: Moving down with price / no div’s ADX: Bear trend Chaikin Money Flow: Pulling back from resistance RSI (30 setting): W = 48.53 | D = 43.88 Stoch: Bearish re cross on weekly. Buy signal on daily. Summary: There is nothing to do at this point other than to wait. Ideally we will get a sharp spike to $6,700 before breaking down. A shakeout before the breakdown would speed up the process and allow for some very good short entries. If that doesn’t happen then we will likely continue to consolidate for days - weeks. Prolonged sideways action can drive traders up a wall and/or put us to sleep. Do not let that happen to you. Set price alerts and regularly check in on the charts. If we get a bounce then be ready to short it. If we continue to consolidate then develop a plan for what you will do if we do not get a bounce. My suggestion is to key an eye on EOS . I am going to be shorting it against BTC' and ETH in the coming days/weeks.
BITMEX:XBTUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 181)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. 1 day - 1 week: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,500 -$7,650 (low confidence prediction) | 1-2 weeks: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30 Previous analysis /position: Couldn’t remember the last time I saw the technicals split so evenly. Discussed the importance of have the discipline to sit out when you are itching for action and there are not any good trades on the table/ Sidelines Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: S = $6,634 | R = $6,800 BTCUSDSHORTS: Finding support at 35,500 - triple bottom on 1 hr' chart Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0021% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = +2.09% | 26 = Being tested for support 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -3.26% | 128 = -9.20% Volume: Decreasing volume as price rises. FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,893 | 0.5 = $7,166 Candlestick analysis: Yesterday had a hanging man at resistance. Today is forming a doji. Ichimoku Cloud: Cloud and Kijun waiting at $7,150 should be strong resistance. C clamp on weekly. TD’ Sequential: Weekly R4. Daily G5 Visible Range: Point of control + high volume node at $6,700 (5 day lookback). Has broken through HVN’s on 1 day lookback. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 123h = +0.82% | 1d = +0.37% | 1w = +7.40% | 2w = +8.44% | 1m = -15.22% Bollinger Bands: Top of daily band acting as strong resistance as expected. Has me rethinking my short squeeze prediction over the next week. Trendline: Descending triangle Daily Trend: Choppy Fractals: UP = $7,153 | DOWN = $6,217 On Balance Volume: Looks to be creating a lower high on the weekly. No div’ on daily. ADX: Weekly ADX is starting to flatten out. Daily is threatening to cross 20. As far as I am concerned the two options are: 3+ months of continued consolidation | capitulation to < $4,000. The ADX is starting to point towards the former option. Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div' in daily and weekly RSI (30 setting): W = 49.41 | D = 48.34 Stoch: Just made bullish cross above 20 on weekly. Daily still trending up. %K angling down and threatening to cross. Has failed to do so the last three times. Summary: The outlook is still far too neutral for me to take a position on BTC'. Daily BB acting as strong resistance while the CMF' has significant bull divergences. Are the shorts finding support and getting ready to create a new all time high or are we going to rally off the weekly reversal candles? If you are patient over the next few days/weeks then I strongly expect a favorable position to present itself. If we rally to $7,000 + then it will be a great selling opportunity. If we breakdown $6,500 support then it could also be a great selling opportunity. In the meantime I am keeping a close eye on ETH:USD. There is a bear flag on the 4 hour chart with a target of $111 which is right in line with horizontal support. Furthermore the ethusdshorts’ are close to equilibrium, until btcusdshorts’.
BITMEX:XBTUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 178)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. New Projections: 1 day - 1 week: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,000 -$7,400 | 1 week: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30 Previous analysis /position: Started to feel very uncomfortable about short sellers nearing ATH’ and lack of selloff following ETF rejection / Capitalized on the rest of my ETH:USD and ETH:BTC shorts. Using 5X leverage the ROI' was > 100% for those positions. Patterns: Descending triangle + bear flag Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,650 | S: $6,450 BTCUSDSHORTS: Hanging man from two days ago has marked the top so far. Return to 12 EMA is strongly expected before another rally. Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0462% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = currently acting as support | 26 = -0.4% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -5.92% | 128 = -12.44% Volume: local high is still on the shooting star candle from two days ago. That wick should act as strong resistance. FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,508 | 0.5 = $5,882 Candlestick analysis: Daily doji/hanging man Ichimoku Cloud: Breaking through Tenkan-Sen. Cloud and Tenkan-Sen are waiting at $7,100 TD’ Sequential: G2 traded > G1 momentarily and quickly pulled back. Visible Range: Point of control over last day is $6,520 | POC over last 6 months = $6,368 BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = +1.08% | 1w = -1.06% | 2w = +4.25% | 1m = -15.54% Bollinger Bands: Back above daily MA. 3 day MA = $6,820 Trendline: Descending triangle and bear flag Daily Trend: Bullish Fractals: 2 up = $6,616 | down = $6,228 On Balance Volume: Slightly bear div’ with lower low and lower high in OBV. ADX: Weekly still creeping up with bearish cross on DI’s. Daily pulling back hard and going for a 20 retest while +DI makes bullish cross with -DI Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on weekly. Daily going for -0.15 retest. If breaks through then high probability it will re test 0.2 RSI (30 setting): W = 48.92 and appears to be creating double bottom | D = 46.41 Stoch: %K keeps pulling back and threatening to cross %D. Last two times failed, will third time be a charm? Summary: I feel much more comfortable observing the next few days/weeks from the sidelines. Trading is about finding high probability situations and quickly adjusting when things do not go as expected. I was very confident that we would re test $6,000 this week and breakdown $5,750 if/when the ETF’s where denied. When that didn’t happen I was forced to adjust my position. I started by covering 20% and tightening the stop losses. Based on how hard we fell from $8,250 and the btcusdshorts' being near their ATH’ I have decided to close the rest of my short positions. I have also changed my short term outlook and now I am expecting a short squeeze to $7,000 - $7,400 before we re test $6,000. I am not nearly confident enough in that projection to open a long, instead I will be waiting to re open my short at those levels. That could mean that I have to wait a couple weeks before re entering and it could also mean that I miss out on a big move if we sell off from here w/o getting a short squeeze. The ability to be patient and be okay with missing out on a move are two of the most important attributes of a profitable trader. If you are not in a position and can feel the itch to get into action then this could be a great chance to work on the intangible characteristics of being a trader!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 175)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. 1 day: $6,000 retest (any day now) | 1 week: break down $5,750 | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 (may need to adjust) | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30 Previous analysis /position: Alarmed by divergence in weekly CMF’ and the buy signal on the 3d stoch. Still felt confident in the mounting resistance and felt that a good risk:reward short sale was on the table (specifically once bear flag breaks down) / Short ADA:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC Patterns: Bear flag forming after triangle breakdown Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,350 | R: $6,436 - $6,480 BTCUSDSHORTS: Going for a retest of the all time high. Something to keep a very close eye on. Funding Rates: shorts pay longs 0.0561% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = currently being tested for resistance | 26 = -3.41% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.85% | 128 = -13.69% and starting to angle downward Volume: Daily still well below MA. 4 hour had 2X average volume on recent sell off, and is declining on bounce. Hourly had roughly 4X volume on sell off. FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,500 | 1 = $5,966 | 1.618 = $4,422 Candlestick analysis: Weekly hammer. Daily candles are showing a lot of indecision. Reversal candles provided a bounce on August 17th but it immediately retraced. Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bearish. Watch closely for price to breakthrough Tenkan-sen as a sign for a reversal. TD’ Sequential: R3 = R2 on weekly | 3d just made bullish price flip | R2 = R1 on daily | 12h just had bearish price flip | G2 briefly > G2 on 4h Visible Range: Point of control over last 6 months is $6,377 and that is a crucial area of support or resistance (depending what happens in the next couple days/hours). Gap at $5,000 is begging to get filled before this bear market ends. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +2.01% | 24h = +/- 0 | 1w = +3.9% | 2w = +2.53% | 1m = -12.04% Bollinger Bands: Daily MA at $6,500 should be strong resistance Trendline: Bear flag Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Two up fractals at $6,593 indicates strong resistance. Two down fractals at $5,952 indicates strong support. On Balance Volume: Weekly bull div’ + double bottom. No div’ on daily. ADX: Weekly ADX is creeping upward while +DI is starting to angle downward. Daily ADX is flattening out after forming lower highs and lower lows. Chaikin Money Flow: Weekly CMF’ has a very significant bull div. Could also indicate overbought conditions. RSI (30 setting): Weekly = 48.84 | Daily = 45.21 Stoch: %K crossing below %D on daily was only a fakeout. %K starting to diverge after making bullish cross on 3d. Still pulling back on weekly after making lower high. BTCUSDSHORTS Summary: The short sellers approaching an all time high and the current rates they are paying is making me feel uncomfortable with the leverage shorts that I am holding. Not to mention the beautiful weekly hammer candle that recently close.That has made me seriously consider closing my positions for the since time since they were opened. However, it still feels premature. Last time the short sellers made an ath’ they continued to rally for 4-5 days. There is a serious cluster of resistance on top of us and instead of closing out I am going to be adjusting my stops. For BTC I am looking at $6,650 - $6,850. For ETH $326 makes a lot of sense and 0.051. If you are not in a position then I would wait to sell pump if/when we get short squeeze.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1