Longs vs Shorts Bitcoin AnalysisHere's a comparison of Longs vs Shorts vs Bitcoin Price.
You can see that for the past 2 weeks in general shorts have been declining and longs rising while the price of Bitcoin was steadily trending down from 10000. This could ultimately lead to The Bloody Bull Massacre.
When longs will be at ATH (around 33000) and shorts at ATL (around 22000) there could be a massive $1000-2000 drop. Under these conditions the exchanges and bitcoin whales that went short will take the most profit. There's not much bears to squeeze right now. So, we might have a short fake up trend with a Judas steer bull candle that could just lead bulls straight to the slaughter. Seems that overall the capital is fleeing the market, we have 3bln daily volume again and on such volume a long term up trend seems unlikely.
This setup will flip side if shorts will suddenly rise (to around 30000) and longs go down (to 24000 baseline). In this case we will have another $1000 pump similar to The Great Bear Squeeze. It will all depend on this sideways trend. Keep an eye on Shorts/Longs.
Also USD Tether news came out this week (hence the bull spikes):
no real audit, but some bank employee unofficially confirmed the account balance as response to recent allegations of price manipulation, more tether printed as result to sparkle bull's hopes.
Bitfinex CSO Phil Potter resigns as Bitfinex plans to move its HQ to Switzerland.
Good Luck!
Not a financial advice. Use at your own risk.
Longsqueeze
BTC margin long volume vs price on BitfinexAfter calling the recent drop from 12k to 7.9k , I got the sense that BTC hasn't bottomed yet despite many calling the bottom. So I started looking for other indicators and pieces of data that may corroborate this hunch.
Initially I started looking at the long (BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS) and short (BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS) positions on Bitfinex as a way to gauge when to exit my margin positions. However, as I went back over the data we had (which admittedly isn't a great deal as Bitfinex only started providing the data on the 20th of August 2017), I started to notice that we topped out at around 32k of BTC longs. This coincided with a couple of major selloffs, including the last drop from 12k, and the prior one from 20k.
Im not sure if this is a glass ceiling, or a hard cap, however it seems pretty clear to me that we are seeing divergence of BTC price vs number of long positions. ie. price is going down despite an increase in longs.
I feel this provides some evidence towards the idea that we will push considerably lower due to a "long squeeze".
I also mentioned a few days back in my prior post that if we close the week below the weekly 20EMA, we will head lower to the 50MA for support.
A few days back
Now
I believe we are going down to between ~6k (+/- 500).
DAILY PREDICTION BTCCNYThe daily's looking nasty here. $390 has been rejected on U.S. exchanges which has negated the possibility that enough momentum exists to push to and beyond $400. Looking to add on a break of 2520 cny1.05% as well as support denoted by the thick orange line.
Pseudo Analytical Indicators: New moon and Chinese New Years converge tomorrow, the 8th.