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Developing A Dollar Bearish Strategy Using The Scientific MethodShould I Short USD? Yes or No? If yes, then how? If no, then why? The question is simple, but the answer may be complicated. Therefore, we will dive into the macroeconomics of the American economy, with consideration given the most significant factors influencing the value of USD. > OBSERVATIONS 1) Since March 2020, USD appears to have lost approximately 13% of it's market value. 2) Since March 2020, USD supply increased by $9.1 Trillion (COVID stimulus). datalab.usaspending.gov 3) Congress was recently asked to approve an additional $1.9 Trillion (COVID stimulus). context-cdn.washingtonpost.com > RESEARCH Part A: Three major external factors contribute to the value of USD... www.investopedia.com 1) Supply and demand: Exporting American products and services creates demand for USD, because foreign investors must exchange their currency for USD, in order to complete the transaction. Note: decreased exports = decreased demand = decreased USD value Note: decreased stock/bond issuance = decreased demand = decreased USD value 2) Sentiment and market psychology: Rising unemployment weakens the economy, reduces income, and slows consumption. If the US economy appears weak, foreign investors may sell-off their US securities, in favor of exchanging back to their national currency. Note: decreased employment = decreased consumption = decreased USD value Note: negative sentiment = decreased foreign investment = decreased USD value 3) Technicals: The release of government statistics (payroll data, GDP data, etc.) may help quantify whether the economy is strong or weak. Historical patterns generated by cyclical support/resistance levels and technical indicators also contribute to the movement of USD. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total value of all the finished goods and services produced (in this case, within American borders) www.investopedia.com Note: decreased employment = decreased GDP = decreased USD value Part B: Four major internal tools (utilized by the Fed) contribute to the value of USD... www.federalreserve.gov 1) Discount rate: The interest rate reserve banks charge commercial banks for short-term loans. 2) Reserve requirements: The portions of deposits that banks must hold in cash in vaults or on deposit. 3) Open market operations: The buying and selling of U.S. government securities (T-bills, bonds, and notes). 4) Interest on Reserves: The interest paid on excess reserves held at reserve banks. > HYPOTHESIS Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is increasing money supply. Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is maintaining interest rates near zero. Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is maintaining reserve requirements at zero. Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is repurchasing government bonds on the open market. > EXPERIMENT Part A: Build a diversified dollar bearish portfolio. Include dollar bearish securities and commodities (FXC, FXE, UDN, GLD, IAU, DBC, DBP) Include International stock and emerging markets ETFs (open to all suggestions for this) Include foreign currencies (GBP, CAD, AUD, CNY, CHF, KRW, JPY, EUR) Include crypto currencies (BTC, ETH, LTC, and especially the DeFi sector) > RESULTS Pending... follow me for a monthly update to see if I get rekt, much love!
Editors' picks
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn13791118
40
ACN stock performance seems as a safe investmentAccenture plc is an Irish company that continues to be a grow-based multinational professional services company that specializes in IT services and consulting with 569,000 employees, 231.68 B market cap After reviewing the company's financial reports from (yahoo finance) we can take an overview about the company performance in the last 3 years is rising straight THE NET INCOME 5,906 B in 30/8/2021 +799 M +15.64 % 5,107 B in 30/8/2020 + 328 M +6.86 % 4,779 B in 30/8/2019 + 720 M +17.73 % 4,059 B in 2018 ------------------------------------------ TOTAL ASSETS 43,176 B in 30/8/2021 + 6,098 B +16.44 % 37,078 B in 30/8/2020 +7,288 B +24.46 % 29,790 B in 30/8/2019 +5,341 B +21.84 % 24,449 B in 2018 ------------------------------------------ TOTAL DEBT 3,506 B in 30/8/2021 + 0.021 B + 0.60 % 8.12% comparison by assets 3,485 B in 30/8/2020 + 3,462 B +15738.18 % 9.40 % comparison by assets 22,66 M in 30/8/2019 - 2.35 M -9.39 % 0.073 % comparison by assets 25,01 M in 2018 ================== Final result <<< we have seen the net income of the company is constantly increasing making a positive sign for the investors, The total assets constantly increasing which increases the company power, For the debt, we have seen a huge increase in the 2020 year compared to the 2019 year. but in the end, the company will pay its debt easily Previous results do not give guarantees for future results, but we can see that the company has successful management and is in continuous development. ACN stock is a good buy stock right now
NYSE:ACNLong
by youssefallax
2
DOW Long-Term Long (Global Equities Turn-around) DAX Resistance The DAX is currently in a very strong resistance zone. In fact many of the largest stock indices are also in the same position please also see my trade on the FTSE (Global Equities Turn-Around) It has touched this level 2 other times this year, we have seen several retracements on the dax this year and this seems to be where it stops the downward pressure with resistance. I have already enterered into the trade and have set a fair tight stop loss about 100 points away to ensure I dont get stopped out prematurely, and to confirm that it is in face break and closing below that level not just down on a spike. I have set my first take profit about 150 pips away and then my sencond one about 300 pips away. This should be a highly profitable trade and would recommend all to jump in. I suspect this trade will be rising for the next few days and I will be looking for other opportunities to buy the dip in this position.
FX:GER30Long
by TriggerTrades
5