Bitcoin Weekly Green CandlesOver the last 2373 Days, bitcoin has experienced volatility between $1830 and $69,000.
During this period, bitcoin closed with a green candle 4 times for 7 consecutive weeks.
This week, it will repeats the record by closing green candle for the 5th time in 7 consecutive weeks.
In the cycle I mentioned, the green candle could not close for 8 weeks.
After the 7th week, it entered the accumulation process between 2 and 12 weeks.
During this period, there were decreases of up to 25%. Afterwards, bitcoin came back stronger.
I wonder so much. Will we see the 8th green candle next week?
When I saw this I wanted to share it.
Longterm
USDZMW We are still seeing bullish momentum in the markets as kwacha is still loosing value againt the dollar, fundamentally/ economically the kwacha isn't performing well due to lack of proper economic activities in Zambia we will continue to see kwacha depreciate as there is a debt criss in the country and the government as of now is running low on reserves as they can only depend on the debt relief in order to keep the economy running smoothly as of 20th november bloomburg published that zambia's dollar debt plunged after official creditors co-led by China and France rejected a revised bondholder restructuring proposal, stalling the revamp of $3 billion of outstanding notes. This caused the kwacha to weaken as this will cause an economic HAULT on zambias economy as of now $1 to kwacha is at K23.84 against the dollar, so long creditors do not accept the revised bond proposal we might keep seeing it rise, technical analysis shows us a possible reversal in price might take place at MARKET PRICE K25, based on our technical speculation we might see price form some liquidity at that price as seen on our trend line and we expect price to to sell till k20 kwacha againt the dollar where we expect it to stabalize there for a while till proper economic polices are put in place.
$BTCUSD 3.5 Year Cycle Forecast - LONGCurrent Market Phase:
As we navigate through BITSTAMP:BTCUSD pairs first phase reminiscent of October 2015, our focus is on achieving the crucial milestone of Target #1, positioned around the $128,000 mark. It is imperative to recognize that this level serves as a pivotal juncture in the trajectory of the current market cycle. Successfully reaching Target #1 will signify the completion of the prebullish phase, potentially setting the stage for the subsequent movements.
Anticipated Correction and Second Bullish Phase:
Upon reaching the $128,000 mark, a robust correction is anticipated, with the target range identified between $23,000 and $24,000. This correction aligns with historical market patterns and provides an opportunity for market participants to reassess their positions. It is important to approach this correction as a natural and healthy part of the market cycle, serving to realign valuations and pave the way for sustainable growth.
The subsequent phase is characterized by a Bullish Pennant formation, indicative of a continuation of the upward trend. This phase is poised to initiate the long-awaited bullish cycle, a significant market event that holds the potential for substantial gains. Investors and traders should position themselves strategically to capitalize on the opportunities presented during this phase.
Extended Projections:
Looking ahead, our analysis suggests that the bullish cycle is expected to culminate in new highs, with a target around $220,000 projected to materialize around mid-2027. This forecast is based on a comprehensive evaluation of current market conditions, historical trends, and potential catalysts. However, it is essential to remain vigilant and adapt strategies to evolving market dynamics, acknowledging that unforeseen factors may influence the trajectory.
External Corroboration:
Our analysis finds support in external sources, such as the article from CMC Markets titled "Is Bitcoin in a New Round of Bull Run?" ( www.cmcmarkets.com ). The article reinforces the observed chart patterns and highlights the potential for a new bullish cycle, adding credibility to our analysis.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the BTCUSD pair on the weekly timeframe is currently navigating the early phases of a potentially robust market cycle. Strategic positioning, risk management, and a keen awareness of market dynamics are essential components for investors and traders seeking to capitalize on the opportunities presented by this evolving chart pattern. As the market progresses, continuous monitoring and adaptation of strategies will be paramount to navigate the inherent volatility and uncertainties associated with cryptocurrency markets.
Echoes of the Past: BTC Price Action Resembling November 2020Fellow Traders,
In the current climate of extended BTC prices, many are on the lookout for a retrace. This anticipation is rooted in a traditional market rhythm where what goes up must come down, at least for a breather. However, it's crucial to cast our minds back to the 2020 scenario, where similar conditions were at play.
During November 2020, BTC experienced a significant surge, much like our current situation. The price was deemed 'too extended' by many, with calls for a retrace being echoed across the trading community. Yet, the expected pullback remained elusive, and the rally continued much longer than many anticipated.
The charts today are painting a familiar picture. Technical indicators and price action that closely resemble the 2020 playbook suggest we may be in for a repeat performance. If history is to serve as a guide, the retrace that seems so obvious may not materialize in the manner or magnitude expected.
It's a reminder of the market's capacity to defy consensus and continue on its path despite extended conditions. This is not to say a retrace is off the table, but rather that the market may not conform to the same patterns we rely on as signals.
As we move forward, let's keep an open mind to all possibilities. Whether or not BTC decides to take that breath we're all expecting, our strategies must be nimble, our risk management tight, and our perspectives unanchored from past events.
In Bitcoin we trust, but the market, we must adapt.
The GRAPH says it all ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📈 BITRUE:GRTUSDC has been overall bullish trading above the rising trendline in blue.
Currently GRT is undergoing a correction retesting the trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
🏹 For the bulls to assume control again and initiate the next bullish impulse movement, a breakout above the red channel and last high in blue is required.
Meanwhile , until the buy is activated, GRT can still trade lower to test the lower blue trendline or even break it downward for an over-extended correction.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
The Triangle Of The Year => BTC 🏆Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
🏹 After a 50% surge from 25,000 to 38,000 , BTC has entered a consolidation phase within the confines of a symmetrical triangle, as highlighted in orange.
This development holds significant importance as it aligns closely with a yearly resistance zone between 38,000 and 40,000. The resolution of this pattern will likely dictate market sentiment for the remainder of the year.
📈 Should the triangle break to the upside, confirmed by a daily candle closing above 38,000, we anticipate a bullish continuation targeting the resistance range up to 40,000.
📉 Conversely, a downward break of the triangle, confirmed by a daily candle closing below 35,600, would signify bearish momentum, potentially leading to a substantial correction towards the 30,000 - 32,000 support and demand zone.
For now, we wait! ⏱
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
NZDCHF - Following My Friend - The Trend 👬Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
NZDCHF has been overall bearish trading within the falling orange channel and it is currently retesting the upper bound / trendline.
Moreover, the zone 0.55 - 0.5575 is a strong resistance.
📉 So the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper orange trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance.
📚 As per my trading style:
As NZDCHF approaches the upper red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
Knowing that NZDCHF can still trade inside the resistance zone before going down.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTC - Comparing Previous Cycles ♠️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📊 Monthly Chart:
If history repeats itself, as seen in previous cycles, BTC is currently breaking out of the correction phase, and the impulse phase has already begun.
📊 Weekly Chart:
Consistent with past cycles, it is evident that BTC tends to retest the red zone before preparing for a parabolic upward movement.
Therefore, be prepared for a potential bearish correction before the bulls regain control in the medium term.
This bullish scenario remains valid as long as the red zone (30,000) holds, signifying no weekly candle close below this zone.
What are your thoughts?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Dividend ETFI've been holding this for more than a year and collecting dividends. With a yield 12.56% and Payout Ratio 47.12% is a good long term holding for your portfolio. Now is forming a falling wedge, looks like is going to break out. Even if the breakout fails eventually it will try again. In the mean time it pays good dividends every month.
SNOW is rising this Winter ❄️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
❄️ NYSE:SNOW has been stuck inside a big range in the shape of a symmetrical triangle.
🏹 For the bulls to take over from a long-term perspective , and the Markup phase to start, we need a weekly candle close above the 210 resistance.
Meanwhile, as SNOW approaches the lower bound of the triangle, we will be looking for short-term buy setups on lower timeframes.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Bitcoin - Back Inside The Range? 📦Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📌 on Weekly: Left Chart
As per my last analysis, BTC is still hovering around the 38,000 - 40,000 resistance zone.
🏹 To sustain bullish control and assert dominance from a macro perspective, a crucial requirement is a weekly candle close above 40,000. Such a development would likely lead to a parabolic movement, aiming for the 50,000 resistance level.
📌 on H4: Left Chart
Meanwhile, considering BTC's proximity to a resistance zone, there remains a possibility of bearish intervention, potentially pushing it back into a range reminiscent of the 30,000 to 32,000 range.
📉 To trigger the bearish scenario, a break below the last significant low in red at 35,670 is required.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Weekend idea 2: DCM Shriram can rise, investing can be idea wiseDCM Shriram Ltd. is a diversified company with business in agriculture, chemicals, plastics, cement, textiles and energy services. DCM Shriram CMP is 938.55.
The Negative aspects of the company are MFs are decreasing stake. The positive aspects of the company are No debt, zero promoter pledge, FIIs increasing stake, improving annual net profit, and Improving cash from operations annually.
Entry can be taken after closing above 969. Targets in the stock will be 1016 and 1066. The long-term target in the stock will be 1119. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 853.
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Weekend Idea 1: HDFC Bank rising from the bottom, can blossom. HDFC Bank Ltd. is engaged in providing a range of banking and financial services including retail banking, wholesale banking and treasury operations. It is one of the top banks in the country. HDFC Bank Ltd CMP is 1532.10.
The Positive aspects of the company are Low debt, zero promoter pledge, FIIs increasing stake, MFs increasing stake, improving annual net profit, and Improving cash from operations annually.
Entry can be taken after closing above 1536. Targets in the stock will be 1605, 1641 and 1675. The long-term target in the stock will be 1719 and 1758. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 1400.
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
LONGTERM BIASEDDid not use any of indicators or any. Just wanted to know your thoughts on my longterm thinking about GU.
If I am counting DXY weakening (FED possible decrease of Interest rates, now or later.. even if they leave them on same levels, USD loosing on value) plus England getting better on longterm.
We can see possible rise in upcoming months and years. Let me know with your opinions or correct me. I will gladly change my mind if I am wrong.
Do NOT forget this is D TF.
Trade wisely and wish you only greens!
J
SasanSeifi 💁♂ theta / Price Consolidation in Weekly Time FrameHi everyone!
As you can see in the weekly time frame, after a downtrend, the price has been accompanied by positive fluctuations after ranging from the 0.56 price range. With the break of the downtrend line, it was able to grow to the 1.17 price range. Currently, it is trading in a range at the 1.023 price range.
We can consider a scenario in which the price continues to range and accumulate volume and then resumes positive fluctuations. If it consolidates above the 1.30 resistance range, we can see growth to the 1.70 liquidity range. In the case of growth, to better understand the continuation of the movement, we need to see how the price reacts to the target range.
The important support level in the weekly time frame is 0.56. Otherwise, if the price penetrates below the 0.56 LOW range and consolidates, the possibility of further correction can be considered.
🟢 Keep in mind, it's essential to perform your own analysis and take into account additional factors before making any trading choices. Best of luck! ✌️
❌ (DYOR)
Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!
if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you!🙌✌
ETH IS AT RESISTANCE! POSSIBLE LONG TERM SCENARIO!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support it with a like and follow.
Welcome to this important ETH update.
Currently, ETH is trading under the $2100 level. As you see in this weekly chart, ETH forming a cup and handle pattern here and trying to break the neckline. Once it breaks the neckline and the weekly candle closes above it ($2150) then we see a massive growth of 80-100% in ETH price.
On the other hand, rejection from here might take us to the lower trendline again ($1600 level) and if this happens then it will be the best opportunity to buy ETH.
So conclusion is we should wait for a clear breakout here or if breakout doesn't happen then buy near the yellow trendline ($1600)
What do you think about this? Share your thoughts in the comments section.
if you like this idea then do support it with like and follow.
Thank You!
SOL 🎵 Playing Out LoudHello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
Weekly : Left Chart
📊 As per our last analysis, SOL broke above the 50.0 round number signaling the start of the MarkUp phase.
H4 : Right Chart
📈 From a medium-term perspective, SOL is still bullish trading within the green rising broadening wedge.
📉 SOL will remain bullish and we will be looking for trend-following buy setups after every correction, unless the 50.0 support is broken downward, in which case a bearish correction would begin.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
SNAP - No Longer Ghosting 👻Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📦 NYSE:SNAP has been confined within a range for nearly a year , indicating a significant accumulation phase.
📈 For bullish momentum to prevail, a decisive break above the upper boundary at 14.0 is crucial.
In such a scenario, the Markup phase would initiate, propelling the price towards the 30.0 mark.
🏹 Meanwhile, SNAP is expected to consolidate. As it nears the lower bound at 10.0 once again, we will be actively searching for new short-term buy setups.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
NEARing A Strong Support ✅Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 BITRUE:NEARUSDT has exhibited an overall bullish trend , trading inside the rising broadening wedge in red.
At present, NEAR is undergoing a correction phase and it is currently approaching the lower bound of the wedge.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong support/structure marked in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #NEAR approaches the lower blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
GBPCAD - Getting Over-Bought ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
on Daily: Left Chart
GBPCAD has been bullish trading inside the rising orange channel. However it is currently approaching a strong daily resistance zone so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes.
on H1: Right Chart
For bearish momentum to prevail and trigger our sell setup, a break below the recently highlighted grayed low is necessary.
Meanwhile, GBPCAD would be bullish and can still trade higher to test the daily resistance again. In this case we will be looking for new sell setups.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
High Returns, Low Risk: Unveiling a Winning Investment StrategyI am pleased to introduce a robust long-term strategy that seamlessly combines performance with an enticing risk profile.
This strategy involves strategically investing in ETFs indexed on the S&P 500 and ETFs backed by physical gold. Let's delve into the rationale behind selecting these two assets:
S&P 500:
1. Automatic Diversification: Instant exposure to a diverse array of companies, mitigating the risk associated with the individual performance of a single stock.
2. Low Costs: ETF management fees are typically low, facilitating cost-effective diversification.
3. Liquidity: Traded on the stock exchange, S&P 500 ETFs offer high liquidity, enabling seamless buying or selling of shares.
4. Historical Performance: The S&P 500 has demonstrated consistent long-term growth, making it an appealing indicator for investors seeking sustained growth.
5. Ease of Access: Accessible to all investors, even those with modest investment amounts, requiring only a brokerage account.
6. Simple Tracking: The S&P 500 index simplifies market tracking, eliminating the need to monitor numerous stocks individually.
7. Dividends: Companies included often pay dividends, providing an additional income stream.
8. Long-Term Strategy: Ideal for investors pursuing a long-term approach, S&P 500 ETFs are pivotal for gradual wealth building.
9. Geographical Diversification: Investing in an S&P 500 ETF offers not just sectoral but also geographical diversification. Despite the U.S. base, many included companies have a global presence, contributing to international portfolio diversification.
Moreover, Warren Buffett's 2008 bet, where he wagered $1 million on the passive S&P 500 index fund outperforming active fund managers over a decade, underscores the difficulty even seasoned financial experts face in surpassing the market's long-term return. This further strengthens the notion that choosing an S&P 500-linked ETF can be a prudent and effective investment strategy.
Investment in Physical Gold ETFs:
1. Exposure to Physical Gold: Designed to reflect the price of physically held gold, providing direct exposure without the need for physical acquisition, storage, or insurance.
2. Liquidity: Traded on the stock exchange, physical gold ETFs offer high liquidity, allowing investors to buy or sell shares at prevailing market prices.
3. Diversification: Gold's unique reaction to market dynamics makes it a valuable diversification asset, potentially reducing overall portfolio risk.
4. Lower Costs: Compared to physically buying gold, investing in physical gold ETFs proves more cost-effective in terms of transaction costs, storage, and insurance. ETF management fees are also relatively low.
5. Transparency: Managers regularly publish reports detailing the gold quantity held, ensuring transparency about underlying assets.
6. Accessibility: Physical gold ETFs offer easy market access without the need for physical possession, appealing to investors avoiding gold storage and security management.
7. Gold-backed ETFs: These ETFs physically hold gold as the underlying asset, with investors often having the option to convert their shares into physical gold.
After extensive research and backtesting across diverse ETFs covering various asset classes, including bonds, real estate, commodities, and stocks of financially stable companies, my findings notably highlight a standout option during times of crisis: physical gold ETFs.
The strategy hinges on leading indicators, powerful economic tools.
Leading Indicators:
Leading indicators, or forward indicators, are crucial tools in economics and finance for anticipating future trends. In contrast to lagging indicators, which confirm existing trends, leading indicators provide early signals, aiding informed decision-making based on anticipated economic developments.
Key characteristics include:
Trend Anticipation: Early insight into upcoming changes in economic activity, facilitating preparedness for market developments.
Responsiveness: Quick reactions to economic changes, sometimes preceding other indicators.
Correlation with the Economy: Association with specific aspects of the economy, such as industrial production, consumer spending, or investments.
Examples include:
• Housing Starts: Providing early indications of the real estate market and construction investments.
• Net New Orders for Durable Goods: Indicating business investment intentions and insights into the manufacturing sector's health.
• US Stock Prices: Considered a leading indicator reflecting investor expectations.
• Consumer Confidence: Measuring consumer perceptions and influencing consumer spending.
• Purchasing Managers' Confidence and Factory Directors: Offering insights into production plans and future economic trends.
• Interest Rate Spread: Indicating economic expectations and influencing borrowing and investment decisions.
Returning to the strategy, I leverage entry points calculated by a meticulously developed strategy incorporating leading indicators applied to the SPY chart. The achieved performance of 3496% since 1993, with 15 closed trades, significantly surpasses a buy-and-hold position yielding 1654% in performance. Notably, the maximum drawdown is 5.44%, a stark contrast to the over 50% drawdown seen in an investment in the S&P 500.
Upon the indicators signaling the end of the long position, I close my SPY positions and transition to positions in physical gold ETFs.
In our example, choosing the GLD ETF yields a performance of 173%, adding to our total performance.
While the maximum drawdown, considering the addition of the investment in physical gold ETFs, is 17.65%, slightly higher than the drawdown on the strategy applied to the SPY, it remains impressive for such a prolonged period.
Now, if we conduct the backtest since 2007:
SPY : performance of 751 %, max drawdown of 4.02 %
GLD : Performance of 153 %
Since 2015:
SPY : performance of 131 %
GLD : Performance of 37 %
Disclaimer:
The information shared is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Investing involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author is not liable for any financial losses incurred.