Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF Analysis 10/16/24DISCLOSURE: As of 10/16/24 I am long Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF NYSE: AVUV
AVUV is a small cap value fund listed on the New York Stock Exchange. They invest in a broad basket of small cap stocks listed in the United States. The fund chooses investments based on qualitative as well as quantitative factors to achieve the best risk adjusted return possible.
Why AVUV?
The primary reason to consider AVUV is as a long term hold alternative to the S&P 500 or other broad U.S. Indexes. Avantis as a brand focuses on factor investing, or the identification of certain characteristics and their ability to outperform or under perform the market.
Of the research available small cap, and value are the 2 most profitable factors over a long enough time period. This is due to the longer runway of small companies, as well as the prices they are bought play into the excess returns. Its worth noting that the value factor implies profitability, setting AVUV apart from indexes like the Russel 2000.
Longterm
SPX500 Pattern Repeating with EERIE overlayThe REAL S&P500 Index is plotted here from the data on SP:SPX and FRED:CPIAUCSL which is CPI-All Urban Consumers which allows us to see the "REAL", or inflation-adjusted S&P500 (excluding dividends) over the long term.
Most people forget the impact that inflation has on the price of stocks because it gets complicated and small increases in price compound significantly over the the long term.
So, to get down to the impact of this pattern that I have reported on several times in the past (see links below), the market has had a long sequence of progress along with crises along the way in the form of financial panics, tax-law changes, banking system stress, real estate market collapses, trade wars and technological innovation cycles.
To break it down into the pattern, take a note of the 1955-1985 time frame and notice how there is a "mode" across that time frame which touches 13 different years.
In 1984 the market "expands" upwards as denoted by the yellow triangle, surging up by more than the previous year's range, which implies the start of a new trend. In this case, the trend is estimated to be 13 years because 13 years touched the same price. 1984 + 13 years sets up a new mode in 1997 which is where the new mode formed through 2012.
In 2013, the market surged upwards or "expanded" higher to indicate a new 11 year uptrend since there were 11 different years that touched the mode as shown.
The INTERESTING PART is that we had similar types of activities AFTER this new trend kicked off: Notice the yellow circle which encompasses the 1987 stock market crash and 1990 bear market in a wild, sideways, choppy market environment.
The same thing also happened after the current uptrend started with the 2016 election, 2020 covid crisis and even later the 2022 bear market (which is outside the circle).
The GREEN "BARS PATTERN" is a copy of the 1984-current market and then pasted to the start of the same structure in 2013 where the current uptrend started from the 'mode'.
Look how the market has moved rather in-synch with this pattern and I haven't even adjusted it for the 2-less years at the mode or 4 less years overall for the pattern from 1955-1984 (20 total years vs 13 years at one price) vs the 1997-2012 (16 total years vs 11 at one price).
We can start analyzing similar news and technological changes to look for interesting stories to compare the two time frames. See what you can find.
The AI craze now is certainly similar to the development of the internet bubble in the late 1990's. We have certainly heard this comparison before but this nails down the comparison into a more structural pattern that can be analyzed and used for making general projections.
I'll follow up on this and let me know if you have any questions.
Tim
10/16/2024 10:19AM EST
TSLA - Get Ready To Long Again...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈TSLA has been trading within a big symmetrical triangle marked in blue.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong support zone around $200 round number marked in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower blue trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #TSLA approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
EURGBP Ready for longer term longsThis pair have been moving down for a long time but within the down trend there are up swings and this is what we've been waiting for. Looks like there's finally a fundamental move to hopefully initiate the next upward leg.
If you're conservative then wait and buy on any pullbacks, or if not enter long now and hold.
SWING IDEA - MANAKSTEELNSE:MANAKSTEEL 's stock price has been consolidating around the 50 resistance level for approximately two years. Following multiple tests, the stock finally broke out above this level in January 2024 and has since established it as a key support.
The stock subsequently surged to a peak of 107, representing a 114% increase. However, it then experienced a sharp correction, plummeting 50% to revisit the 50 support level. This pivotal point, formerly a resistance, has now become a robust support.
Currently, MANAKSTEEL is exhibiting an upward momentum, poised to retest its swing high at 107. The weekly MACD crossover, occurring after the establishment of support at 50, indicates a bullish trend reversal.
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
- Two-year resistance level of 50 broken in January 2024
- Stock surged 114% to 107 before correcting 50%
- 50 level now serves as robust support
- Weekly MACD crossover indicates bullish momentum
- Upward momentum poised to retest swing high at 107
RECOMMENDATION:
Based on this technical analysis, I would recommend holding MANAKSTEEL for a Long Term horizon. This could potentially yield:
- 50% returns from the current price (as of writing)
- 99% returns from the support point (50)
This analysis highlights a compelling buying opportunity in MANAKSTEEL, driven by its breakout and momentum reversal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Investors should be aware of an unfilled gap between 60 and 60.25, which remains open. There is a possibility that the stock may revisit this level in the near future before resuming its upward momentum towards the swing high at 107. This potential pullback should be monitored closely, and investors may consider adjusting their strategies accordingly.
DISCLAIMER: This IDEA is for informational/educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The analysis presented is based on technical indicators and historical data but does not guarantee future performance. Please conduct thorough research based on financial goals and risk tolerance, and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
QCOM DOWNWARD TREND BREAKOUT TO THE UPSIDE! 20% MOVE NASDAQ:QCOM DOWNWARD TREND BREAKOUT TO THE UPSIDE! 20% MOVE INBOUND!
NASDAQ:QCOM IS ON THE UP AND UP!
- Symmetrical Triangle Breakout
- Stochastic Curling Upward
- MACD Crossing Zero Line
- RSI Higher Highs
CATALYST: SEMIS ON THE RUN AGAIN!
Not Financial Advice!
LINK/USDT 1W chart reviewHello everyone, let's look at the current situation of LINK 1W interval. In this situation, we can see the price rebounding from the downtrend line.
Let's start by setting goals for the near future, which include:
T1 = $11.49
T2 = $13.66
T3 = $15.54
T4 = $17.27
Now let's move on to the stop-loss in case the market continues to decline:
SL1 = $9.27. SL2 = $7.35. SL3 = $5.53
Looking at the RSI indicator, we see
as the movement took place in the upper range, which could have influenced the change in the direction of movement, giving a price recovery.
BOME ANALYSIS🚀#BOME Analysis :
🔮As we can see in the chart of #BOME that there is a formation of "Falling Wedge Pattern". In a daily timeframe #BOME is breaking out the pattern. Expecting a bullish move in few days.📈
🔰Current Price: $0.007585
🎯 Target Price: $0.010915
⚡️What to do ?
👀Keep an eye on #BOME price action. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️
#BOME #Cryptocurrency #TechnicalAnalysis #DYOR
BTC - Do You Remember This? Now What?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📍Following my last BTC Monthly log view analysis on November 11, 2022 , we anticipated the bulls taking control after rejecting the lower green trendline and horizontal support.
Currently BTC is approaching its all-time high!
What's Next?
📈 If the current all-time high (highlighted in red) is surpassed, we anticipate a 254% increase, mirroring the last bull cycle. This aligns with the upper boundary of the green channel and the 200k - 250k round numbers.
⚠️ However, the journey may encounter bumps, leading to sharp correction movements to shake out weak hands.
This bearish scenario, would mean retesting the lower green trendline before surging!
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
ETH - Two Levels to Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📔Here is a practical example on how to find your edge.
According to our last educational post:
Where is ETH now?
It’s currently in the middle of nowhere, a no-trade zone, as we don’t have an edge.
Here are the possible areas where we’d be interested in trading:
1️⃣ $2000 is a round number that intersects with a structure and trendline, making it an attractive zone to consider medium-term longs.
2️⃣ $2900 represents the previous major high and structure that the bulls need to break above to take full control.
Until then, we wait!⏱️
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Long Term Prediction on Inflation Rates - 2031history may not repeat itself, but it rhymes... or so they say. But in this case, so far we have an EXACT repeat, starting in 2015. The chart uses the exactly same angles and duration from the inflation we had in the 1970s. I put this together around 6 months ago and so far... it continues to track.
You be the judge of what's going to happen. Of course, time will tell and we'll see how it all plays out.
LUNR IM-2 Launch upcoming in January 2025The privately held Intuitive Machines, LLC, became a public company after merging with a special-purpose acquisition company, Inflection Point Acquisition Corp., in February 2023. The company is listed on the Nasdaq, incorporated in Delaware. On February 22, 2024, the Odysseus IM-1 spacecraft landed on the Moon. It was the first privately built craft to land on the Moon, and the first American spacecraft to do so since 1972. The Odysseus lander fell on its side when landing, but its instruments remained partially functional (albeit with a reduced downlink capacity), so the mission was judged successful. ( WIKIPEDIA )
This company is picking up momentum and creating higher support while enjoying increased volume for the past three months. It looks like this stock seems to climb during the period when they have a space mission or achieve a new contract. Recently they achieved a Contract worth 4.8 Billion Dollars USD with NASA which is a serious contract and not something to be taken lightly. This contract opens up additional revenue opportunities with other companies. Intuitive Machines is increasing REVENUE YOY at a compounding rate, and has seasoned experienced executives in almost every position of leadership. The company is very motivated and explanatory with their products, and you can access user manuals on their technology. It looks like a very legit company that plans on being around for the next space age and further. They have technology in space communications that could possibly be adapted for satellites that transmit signals to earth as various companies are switching to satellites for cellular tech. Inutitive machines market cap is roughly 915.29 Million USD. Their contract is worth 4.8 billion dollars.
www.reuters.com
Following the launch of IM-1, Intuitive Machines' stock surged 35% in one trading day, rising 75% total by Friday, February 16.
Intuitive Machines’ stock sank 32% after the Odysseus moon lander fell on its side on 23 February 2024.
This stock is a great buy for stability while also offering potential for break outs to scalp shares and sell to play short term trends, while going up in the long term. The stock offers consistent news and they are very motivated to become a Space power house for the USA.
SasanSeifi|Will $1800 Be Ethereum's Next Support Level?Hey there, ✌
Ethereum has encountered corrections from the key resistance level of $2700 in the long-term time frame. Currently, the price reacted around $2200 and managed to experience positive movements toward the $2500 zone, as highlighted in recent analyses. However, mid-term analysis still indicates a bearish trend, with the price ranging at the $2300 level.
In the mid-term, it's anticipated that Ethereum may approach the $1800 zone through some corrections. Upon reaching this level, market reaction will be crucial in understanding the future movement.
Key resistance zones at the moment lie between $2500 and $2700. On the other hand, if the price breaks and holds above $2700, we might see further upward movement toward $3000 to $3200
This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
AUDUSD - Follow the Bulls!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈AUDUSD has been overall bullish, trading inside the rising channel in green.
Moreover, it is approaching a massive demand zone in blue.
🏹 The highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the demand zone and lower green trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #AUDUSD is around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Time to buy in after a -70% drop!Since our first analysis a while ago, we've been inching closer and closer to our target area on $SMCI. Since then, we've seen a price drop of 40%, which is far from irrelevant, with the stock retracing nearly 70% from its peak. We're witnessing a clear and recurring pattern here—what we call the "staircase to hell." Each push to a level has been met with rejection, which is exactly why we see a buying opportunity forming.
We are now making our first bid here as a market entry. This is intended to be a swing trade that we plan to carry into 2025, with a target of reaching previous highs again. Therefore, we're not worried about getting a "perfect" entry within 1-2% but instead setting a DCA bid a bit lower for an optimal position if NASDAQ:SMCI comes down further.
Below the market entry, there's an important Fibonacci cluster that combines the 200% target of Wave C, the 78.6% retracement of Wave (2), and a target for Wave ((v)), all aligning well. With these multiple levels coinciding, there's a strong possibility we will see the price reach this zone. If so, we’ll place another bid to buy more shares.
If NASDAQ:SMCI manages to flip the first resistance, we expect it to move up quickly. As we always say, patience is the key to successful swing trading—don’t let greed or fear cloud your decisions 🤝.
MKR/USDT 1W Long-TermHello everyone, let's look at the 1W MKR to USDT chart, in this situation we can see how the price is moving in a downtrend channel, at its lower boundary.
Let's start by setting goals for the near future, which include:
$2,063. $2,545. $2,767. $3,080
Now let's move on to the stop-loss in case the market continues to decline:
SL1 = 1250USD
SL2 = $953
SL3 = 520USD
Looking at the RSI indicator, we see
as the indicator moves at the bottom of the range, which may translate into an attempt at price increases.
SOL Price Action and Potential Cup & Handle SetupIt’s becoming increasingly clear that SOL, much like BTC, is forming a cup and handle pattern. Once the trendline is decisively broken, this pattern should lead to higher highs, with the target being roughly the same distance as the height of the cup from bottom to top. If a breakout occurs, SOL’s target could be significantly impressive.
However, unlike BTC, SOL (and similarly XRP) often doesn’t follow the typical market movements and can act independently. While I’m not a huge fan of SOL due to its more isolated nature and weaker focus on macro trends, this is an undeniably strong technical setup.
If SOL does break through the trendline, I expect it to initially pierce above, only to retest and sit on that line. If the upward trend continues from there, the cup and handle will be fully in play.
AAVE ANALYSIS#AAVE Analysis : Channel Following
📊As we can see that #AAVE is following ascending channel on daily time frame. Currently the price is trading above its major support zone. Price is moving upwards within a long-term rising channel, recently took a support from its support level. Expect a bullish move in few days.📈
🔖 Current Price: $151
⏳ Target Price: $185
⁉️ What to do?
- Keep your eyes on the chart, observe trading volume and stay accustom to market moves.🚀💸
#AAVE #Cryptocurrency #ChartPattern #DYOR
ITD Cementation India Long Term Investment IdeaIntroduction
ITD Cementation India Ltd. engages in the construction of a wide variety of structures. Its areas of operations include maritime structures, mass rapid transport systems (MRTS), dams and tunnels, airports, highways, bridges and flyovers, and other foundations and specialized engineering work.
Observation
As we can see stock breakout its channel with huge trade volume, Open marabuzo and....
Visit on website👆deeper detail and its fundamentals
EURAUD Long term longs, get in now or wait for pullbacksSimple technical analysis here, price has been wallowing around these lows for a while and it's the bottom of the higher time frame channel, great opportunity to start buying here with great risk reward.
Buy now and hold or wait for pullbacks if you're more conservative. Not sure on targets, would hope for a 50% pullback at least or possibly higher but that's a long hold.
10/2 XAU | USD increased by war conflictXAU / USD trend forecast October 2, 2024
Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in response to Israel's actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon, boosting demand for safe-haven gold. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Iran would face consequences, while Iran warned of massive destruction in retaliation, escalating the risk of a wider Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, the US JOLTS report revealed a surprising rise in job openings for August, reaching 8.04 million.
/// BUY XAU : zone 2635-2637
SL: 2629
TP: 50 - 100 - 300 pips (2665)
Safe and profitable trading