The last oneFirst, this stock is a total disaster for every retail holder, including myself. Secondly, this stock is unpredictable since as it seems to my eyes VCs control the game and can do whatever they want... burn it to 0, sell it for $5,$10,$20 etc... or raise capital and dilute. Here are some points to consider though:
1. Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern target $59 +-$1 more on the pattern here ()
2. Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern target $59 +-$1 more on the pattern here (www.tradingview.com)
3. 0.236% Fib Retracement since gap down after wsb pump 2021 at $58.55
4. Russel Rebalancing prior to ex-CEO + founder removal at $58.50
5. Citron last tweet mentioning wish worth $50? (do not take into account this one but just for the sake of the conversation)
Some things in favor of an upward move:
1)FED pause = peak rates = expecting cuts heading into 2024 and beyond
2)Inflation for now is behind us and might be heading to deflation
3)Small caps momentum (wish will get inflows from funds following Russell3000)
4)10y% down = risk on
5)Oil down = more disposable income = increase discretionary spending
6)Heading into US elections, historically a positive year for markets
7)What about China's comeback into the 2024 year of the Dragon?
8)DXY down positively correlated to US stocks going up
Wish turnaround checklist
1)Bad Merchants cleared and quality improved ✓
2)NPS improved (flat rate shipping, faster shipping, lower refund rates, better quality products,more pick up points,better customer support)✓
3)Operational Excellence (fired 2/3, hiring lower cost employees in China) ✓
4)App improved ✓
5)New Website (pending...)
6)New merchant commission structure coming into 2024 ✓
$59 = $1357m valuation
Expected Sales 2024 = 200m... I think the bar here is very low but since they control Ad spending which is highly correlated with revenue the sales number is not that predictable ( i can't be in their head on what they are planning to do)
Cash on hand 445m as of Q3 and going to burn another 50-60m on Q4 so cash at the end of the year should be standing at 385m
2024 cash burn should be 40m less than the previous year due to layoffs so 10m/Q less. If sales number is 200 as projected meaning -30% than 2023 then i would expect total cash burn to be -30% as well = 25-35m / Q leaving wish with approximately 250m +-20 at the end of 2024. But those are all assumption in my head but the big picture says wish 2024 EoY cash to be standing above 200m! which means they will have to take a decision on what they are gonna do in 2025
1)sell it
2)raise money dilution
And something to consider about the Forest not the Tree! Temu success is a proof that wish got the idea right from the beginning but bad management execution failed this company! For me that means that wish business model = mobile low cost e-commerce targeting West shifting downward middle class + Rest of the world shifting upward class(formation of new middle class) is right BUT what can happen to this stock i do not know anymore. All i can do is wait...
Longtermanalysis
Gold achieved impressive gains, the market was hotDear friends, the market seems to be showing an impressive price increase, as it continues to rise relentlessly for the past three months, mostly due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The toned-down rhetoric from officials at the Federal Reserve has limited global USD supply, making gold hotter than ever.
At the time of writing, the gold market has temporarily halted trading, facing a close on Friday while still testing crucial resistance levels at its highest point since July 1987. Breaking decisively above would confirm that the weeks-long downward pressure has been slowly diminishing. Such a breakthrough would ensure a reevaluation of bearish prospects. Furthermore, surpassing the May 2072 peak is shifting midterm prospects towards an upward trend. My current target is to aim for the two highest resistance levels at $2071. With another test looming as the 1M timeframe trend remains stable.
What about you? Do you agree with my viewpoint?
ADAUSDT looking bullish long-termADAUSDT is looking oversold on the weekly chart, with the FSVZO indicator signaling a bullish divergence, Trend Intensity Exhaustion signaling a long entry, Amazing Oscillator on the verge of turning bullish, and the crypto seasonality being Uptober, it is safe to say that the probabilities of ADAUSDT rising over the next few weeks is highly likely
Next few months idea for NEAR/USDTbased upon few calculation & liq. prospective im expecting this move. #NFA
GBP/USD Long Term (HTF) Setup and Trade Plan + short term playsTime Frame:
- Weekly & Daily for analysis
- 4 Hour for execution
Trend: Currently in a LTF uptrend (pullback) within a HTF downtrend
- Weekly = Down
- Daily = Up
My hypothesis for this pair (orange price prediction) is for this daily pullback to continue in order to sweep further liquidity from the larger (green) trend that had been in control since mid-2021 with 4 strong resistance touches. This more recent blue trend line that defended price and brought us out of the green trend is still in control with it’s third support touch.
I expect price to mitigate former supply zones in the range of 1.35 to 1.375 and using that liquidity to make a large move downward toward a strong unmitigated demand zone at 1.14 and ultimately to a prior large liquidity grab at 1.03.
This is a longer term trade however there will be shorter term opportunities within that I plan to take such as:
Short term downside: I will highlight this trade opportunity in a different post – there is a strong head and shoulders pattern forming on the daily chart and this could give us the necessary liquidity to break out of this blue trend line – at least toward the most recent unmitigated demand zone at 1.244. (Red price prediction)
Short term upside: If the H&S does not follow through and is invalidated by a sharp move upward, I will take a long position toward the most recent Higher High expecting either a bounce off strong resistance or bullish momentum toward our ultimate HTF supply zone
Thank everyone who views this and takes any benefit from it. I am on a journey to becoming the best 4Xtrader I can become and love to bring my fellow traders along for the ride.
As always, feel free to like, comment, and message with any questions, comments, feedback, concerns, or GOOD VIBES!
Happy Trading!
FourXTrader
$NVDA Extreme Peak PatternYesterday's Top Gainer for the NASDAQ has found support at a precise technical level. This is usually technical professional traders. There could also be a few Dark Pools in the mix.
DPO Cycle Chart: The Detrending Price Oscillator I use to show the long-term cycle of a stock shows an Extreme Peak which needs to pattern out with the stock shifting sideways for a while. The Extreme Peak is not necessarily an exhaustion of trend pattern.
Between 2007 and 2020, NASDAQ:AAPL had 4 Extreme peaks, corrected and resumed the uptrend between each peak. Troughs were shallow during those years.
NASDAQ:NVDA needs to shift into a platform or other sideways trend to pattern out the Extreme Upward Cycle Peak. Otherwise, at some point, the over-speculated price will become a correction on the short-term or intermediate-term trend. This means that NVDA can move higher for a while BUT this is not an ideal long-term entry level until it patterns out that extreme peak.
Simson Cartoon Prediction About BitcoinBINANCE:BTCUSDT
Hi , Trader's .. Most you Aware about simson's Cartoon Prediction About Cryptocoin's
Simson series already predicted About world War's , Pandemic like Covid , World economy
USA presidential election and much more , most of prediction's came true
simson also predict about future of cryptocurrency many year's back
in there prediction they told world about digital currency , blockchain system and much more
they predicted that in 2025 bitcoin will reach 100k$
if we study the bitcoin Trading cycle , bitcoin is on major resistance line of monthly resistance
After breakout from this level bitcoin can again become bullish and it will have big area to play with
After every two year's of downfall bitcoin price surge minimum 4x
So according to this theory Price of btc now at 27000$ , so 4x would be approx 100k$
Conclusion : Prediction's are based on speculation's , nothing is 100% true , For better understandng alway's do technical and fundamental analysis both , Do trade with proper risk management
❤️ Please, support my work with follow ,share and like, thank you! ❤️
EURAUD Investment Plan - 4/Jan/2023Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect EURAUD to go Down.
I am still looking for additional confirmation to be sure about this down move, however, one can obviously take the trade if their strategy allows.
The objective of this idea is to share that the Long term SELL is probably gonna be coming next for this pair.
Look for your SELL setups.
Considering the fact that there are also traders looking for ideas wrt investment purpose, I will be posting my view on few assets for Long term trades.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea
DXY Investment Plan - 1/Jan/2023Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect DXY to go Down after finishing the current correction in LTF.
Look for your SELL setups.
Considering the fact that there are also traders looking for ideas wrt investment purpose, I will be posting my view on few assets for Long term trades.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea
btcusdtperpHi my friends
From my point of view, the market moves in this way and after this drop, we will enter the accumulation phase
AUDCAD Investment Plan - 30/Dec/2022Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect AUDCAD to go Down after finishing the current correction in LTF.
Look for your SELL setups.
Considering the fact that there are also traders looking for ideas wrt investment purpose, I will be posting my view on few assets for Long term trades.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea
Silver Investment Plan - 20/Dec/2022Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect SILVER to go Down after finishing the current wave.
Look for your SELL setups.
Considering the fact that there are also traders looking for ideas wrt investment purpose, I will be posting my view on few assets for Long term trades.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea
#AUDCAD potential long term selling opportunitytake a look at where price currently is sitting on and the long term resistive cluster around price...
price at the moment is testing a bearish weekly channel resistance line and also at weekly high which means if the downtrend in weekly scale wants to resume price cannot close above this high. although that price can whipsaw above it but it can't close above it.
for taking a position depends on the kind of a trader you are say risk averse or risk seeking you may enter now or wait for a more and clear confirmation in lower timeframe. and perhaps waiting to see a shift in market structure or chart pattern formations.
Also we can see a bearish divergence between price and RSI indicator in Daily time frame.
Identifying significant bottoms in Bitcoin Bear CyclesHey all!
I've been looking at long term charts for quite a while, trying to find some pattern to help me identify and find the dreaded "price bottom" everyone longs for.
Here's a model/pattern I've found out in the chart, which eerily seems to be accurate across past cycles, and we just yet might be finishing it off as well this time.
There are several predicates I have to put before the analysis:
This is NOT financial advice and should be used for entertainment purpose only!
I'm using two-week candles to have as little noise as possible while having more data points than when using Monthly candles.
RSI
- Major level for RSI is 50; when RSI is above 50, I consider we are in bull-market and going up. Basically every time we went above 50 and held it as support, we never looked below 50 before reaching the cycle price top.
- Another major indicator is the Moving Average on RSI. As per usual, if MA is going up, the price goes up and until the direction switches, prices will go up. Breaking the MA as support and holding it as resistance starts the new bear market and prices dropping.
- Since this analysis focuses on the "bottom", I'm going to talk mainly about what happens after RSI breaks the MA and it reaches level 50 from above.
StochRSI
- as per definition, major levels are level 20 and 80.
- All major price points I'll talk about happen below level 20.
PMAR & PMARP
- I'm using PMARP
- major level is between ~25-30; We tend to touch or go below this level in bear markets
- The Moving Average (SMA) is very important and I'll be using it in my analysis as well.
As you can see, there are 9 orange vertical lines, I call them simply "#point 1-9". These are actually describing the "same" event in different times across the Bitcoin history.
I will completely omit any price charting, the price is only pinpointing my analysis, however be sure to notice, the orange #points are showing INDICATOR significant levels, NOT price levels (even though they go hand-in-hand).
The story must be explained on each of the three indicators, for each of the three-points I'm using.
So let's start!
#point 1, 4, 7
RSI
- RSI went below MA (yellow line), and reached the ~50 level for the first time since quite a while.
- On this occasion, the level 50 holds as SUPPORT
StochRSI
- First visit of <20 lows since hitting highs of >80
- Usually goes even below 5, or as low as 0 on this occasion.
PMARP
- First time reaching level ~26-30 since breaking the MA (white line)
On this occasion, we are hitting first major lows on all indicators (and price of course as well). However, every time, there is a small bounce, but this bounce is short-lasting, invevitably heading for next points.
#point 2, 5, 8
RSI
- First time RSI does not hold 50 as support and breaks below this level. It will likely retest this level as resistance but fail to hold it as support for any prolong period of time.
StochRSI
- Another point being <20, most likely hitting <5 again.
PMARP
- Hitting level ~26-30 again or going first time BELOW it.
After our first set, we had a brief rally, only to get crushed even more below our support levels on all three indicators. Price can be the same or lower than on previous point, but we know there is #point 3/6/9 coming up, as this is not the bottom just yet...
#point 3, 6, 9
RSI
- Hits absolute bottom, it will NOT go below this level until the next bear market.
StochRSI
- Again (or still) hitting levels <20, most likely <5 even. Looks like any momentum is completely dead.
PMARP
- Hitting new lower-low, this value will not be visited again before reaching next bear market.
- #point 9 is an outlier - other points were rejected from MA after previous point AND before reaching this low, not the case for #point 9; However, what we DID have, was a rejection from MA on PMARP before #point 8 printed, which could count as well.
This last point in each cycle is very special, as there are many similarities and some differences between each points.
The most important aspect is, that at these points, the indicators were at their absolute bottoms, and very similar story followed for #points 3/6, we are yet to see if they will happen for #point 9 as well.
So what happens next?
RSI
- In my eyes, the bull-market is over whenever RSI goes below 50. And on the contrary, the bear market is over when RSI goes above 50 and decisively holds it as support.
- When last point prints, the RSI must retake firstly the MA (which tends to be lower than 50), and next it must go above 50. Once it does, the bull market is officially on.
- You can notice interesting "similar" timeframes for following:
- Going below MA (yellow line), and going above 50 level took 45 bars (Jan 2014 - Oct 2015), and 35 bars (Dec 2017 - Apr 2019). If we take 45 bars on our current cycle, we are looking at Mar 2021 - Dec 2022 if you take first break of MA (the same as previous points)
- After going above level 50 (and holding it as support), it took 57 bars before we decisively broke the MA in 2017/18 bull-market, and 51 bars in 2019-2021 bull market. Since we are not above level 50 right now, it's hard to say when the next RSI break might be, but if we use our previous estimate of 45 bars from MA break to 50 level break, and use "average" of 51 and 57 bars, we are pointing for RSI breaking the MA from above again in Jan 2025; but this is pure speculation right now.
StochRSI
- Important level when coming from <20 is of course the level 20, and 40 as well. Once both levels are held as support (and possibly retested more times), the bull market might just be allowed to start,
- For #point 3/6, the first time we "touched" level 20 on StochRSI after these points printed, we never went below level 20 again until the next bear market.
- NOTE: Reaching 80 the first time does NOT have to mean the bull market is starting - this has to be connected with the RSI being above 50 as well - then you can be "sure" it won't go down again until next bear market.
PMARP
- Similarly to RSI, PMARP has two objectives - retake MA (white line), hold it as support and then go above level ~26-30 and hold that as support.
- There are also similar timeframes for notable objectives done by PMARP:
- Breaking the MA (white line) from ABOVE, to break it again from BELOW took 28 and 29 bars. If it were to take 29 bars this time "again", it points to Dec 2022 (same as RSI using 45 bars, see above) - the last point is a bit of an outlier, since PMARP went above it's MA briefly during Oct 2021, so I consider the "last" break from ABOVE in this timeframe.
- Time between #point 3 and 6, when PMARP last touched the MA, to next time it did the same after given point was reached, took 100 bars. If we use this same timeframe, we are looking to break the MA on PMARP from BELOW in Dec 2022 (again the same date!)
To summarize:
- All things considered, I think we've already found our "three bottoms" as we did have in previous bear markets as well. This does NOT mean price cannot go lower (cascading liquidations for example), but I'd argue that the INDICATOR bottoms are IN!
- Using similar timeframes, it might seem we could break the indicator major resistance around Dec 2022. This does not mean the price will be higher then than it is now!
- Again, I'm not saying price bottom has been reached.
- Critique and comments are welcome. I'm newb TA-junkie, this is not professional work and it's the first Idea I've written.
- This is not financial advice, DYOR.
(W) Chrt Anlyss/Current Opportunity & Longterm View with 4$rule(W) Chrt Anlyss/Current Opportunity & Longterm View with 4$rule for New Comer's.
Aug 3rd week Price Rejection at 1808 from weekly low of 1681, where Bullish run was from 1681 to 1808 = 127$
Opportunity arise after bullish rejection with Bearish Trend For :-
1st Tp at 1729
2nd Tp at 1711
3rd Tp at 1690
With Hedge point at 1752
( Strong Major Support is maintained from 20April2020 to till date 19th Aug2022 .. Tp can continue but, its not recommended )
if Major support is broken then SELL entry will be taken from 1658 and Tp will be 1635, 1602 with ext 1589.
And if the price bounce back from Major Support area.. then BUY side will be strong from 1721 to 1762 resistance if these resistances
break it will be the first sign of Bullish continuation for 1812,1821 ext 1855 and Key level figures till 2063 which is expected.
Take note that My 1lot Hedge is at 1801 and it release will be mentioned ( As per my mood ) on the TV Gold forum Chat 😃😃😃
Till then stay tuned. Good Luck
These Analysis is done Based on Trends, Wave, Technical Fundamental & Beyond Technical analysis.
Do it like GreeceStudy the greek economy & politics from the period 1990-2012 and you might find a lot of similarities with that is currently happening in the US. Greece experienced a credit boom from 1990-2008, people however were living above their means. We faced the biggest bubble in Greece's economic history during the 1999 when everybody was playing the stock market! and i mean everybody! i remember my father telling me that the biggest sign he saw that the bubble was about to pop was when his mother in law (late 99) came and told him that she wanted to play the stock market as well! When he asked her why she replied: because the other granny across the street is making money... That was the sing! who the hell was left to buy????
Then the bubble popped together with the .com bubble but people were not selling in the contrary in 2003 they start borrowing and selling their houses,farms whatever they had and played all in! because in their mind and in the media that was the bottom! The ultimate buy the dip!!!then we had the golden age of modern Greece! Various outstanding sports events wins! like the Euro 2004, beating the US Basketball Team, and the cherry on top hosting the Olympic Games of 2004, oh boy euphoria was back in the game and this time for good! We were borrowing more and more money to live a life we could not support! our debt got bigger and bigger but when the 08 housing market popped it was time for us to pay our debts!
You know what happened next! check the graph here (www.capital.gr) but only till 2012 because then we had to recapitalize our banks 4 times so the graph is not representative of the whole market. From a political perspective the 2 biggest political parties left and right had to form a government together in order go through this tough period. Our debt was restructured and taxation went sky high! especially for the middle class who paid the majority of the bill!
How are things now? well we sold almost all our assets to foreign investors/countries for peanuts! we got used after 10 years to a -50% income and prices are something like 100%-200% higher than 2000...
Bitcoin Bullmarket RoadmapThis is my Bitcoin Bullrun Roadmap for the coming months.
Validation condition:
- bottom line of the trendline must hold
My BTC Targets:
🎯 December: $82.1k
📉Correction to $65k
🎯 January: $99.6k ->
📉Correction to $75k-$80k
🎯Cycle Top: $140k-$160k in March/April
EURGBP 18/11Looking to short EG from 0.84750
4H timeframe confluences:
*Intra-day bullish momentum has been broken with a strong push to the downside.
*0.84750 key level has been broken; however, the market has not yet retested this level for further downside.
*As there has been a shift in momentum, I am favouring short positions only.
*A pullback to 0.84750 to enter a short position in order to catch the next impulse move to the downside.
Trade = invalid if market closes above the 0.84750 level
GOLD - Simple Trend Line AnalysisThis monthly gold chart demonstrates the beauty of using simple trend line for accurate technical analysis in long term chart, as the old sayings go "Simple is the best, Less is more."
Gold is at the critical junction at the moment. It looks like it will have a breakout of the bullish flag formation ( the descending broadening wedge), or it will fail here and drop back to the nearest uptrend line.
While monthly MACD indicates more consolidation that means gold could drop from here, a bullish monthly candle closed above the broadening wedge could possibly confirm the breakout otherwise.
What do you think about gold's next move based on this chart ?
Bitcoin: Alt Alt Pi Cycle Top Based On Diminishing ReturnsUnlike my previous Alternative Pi Cycle Top, I coded the multiplier (the # after close) to be multiplied by pi. Once I added a Pi Multiplier to the same moving averages as previous, I realized it then moved so that the 79 day MA (pi*25) x pi corresponded to the 2014 double peak, and following a 2x to the length of the moving average each market cycle gives you a historically accurate local top sell target.
If you're looking at this, I encourage you to view my previously posted model. This is a slight alteration that seems to make it more accurate. This is pure speculation, and not to be trusted.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/1/2021 SessionContract - CME_MINI:NQZ2021
- PR High: 14712.75
- PR Low: 14687.00
Evening Stats
- Gap: = N/A
- Session Open ATR: 220.88
- Volume: 57k
- Open Int: 225k
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -7.0% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as a range)
- Long: 15819
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14676
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BTC in a bull channel in my opinion , according to crash in the 2017 ... if the price break the 30000$ gonna touch the up trend channel and then will bounce up ...
every thing is clear in chart. hope you like it... leave a comment bellow if u have any opinion ...
tnx indeed
Update long term crypto market analysis (#total2 ) $alts #Altseason #Cryptos
Update long term crypto market analysis (#total2 )
*Double top 1: Wave 3 of main cycle, end of 4 years repetitive cycle (Novembre 1-15).
*Double top 2: Wave 5, end of lengthening cycle (June 2022-June 2023).
*Final target: between 0,382 and 0,5 of last cycle.
