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Longtermtrend

MATIC: Major Lawsuits and the Long-Term TrendPrimary Chart: Monthly chart of MATIC (Polygon) with Monthly Four-Year Uptrend Fundamental Issues Arising from Recent SEC Legal Actions Significant fundamental concerns have been brewing relating to Polygon / MATIC. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is the primary securities regulator in the US that handles securities registration, enforcement, and efficiency of capital markets. The SEC has recently named 13 securities that it alleges to be unregistered securities including the subject altcoin. This came as part of this agency's enforcement action (lawsuits) against Binance Holdings Limited, Changpeng Zhao, et al., as well as its action against Coinbase, Inc and Coinbase Global, Inc., essentially the Coinbase exchange. The SEC alleges defendants' "blatant disregard of federal securities laws and the investor and market protections these laws provide." Section 5 of the Exchange Act requires entities meeting the definition of exchange to register with the SEC as a national securities exchange under the Exchange Act unless exempted. Similarly, broker-dealers are required to register with the SEC under the Exchange Act as well, 11 U.S.C. § 78o(a)(a) (typically, broker dealers are defined as persons engaged in the business of effecting transactions in securities on the account of others). And offering and selling unregistered securities is also a major violation of the securities laws that carries severe legal consequences. Coinbase Inc., for example, is alleged to have never registered with the SEC as a broker, national securities exchange, or clearing agency. Accordingly, the SEC argues that Coinbase has unlawfully "evaded the disclosure regime" that federal law provides for securities markets. All these legal actions depend on on a pivotal concept: whether the crypto assets involved are securities. Broker-dealers by definition effect transactions in securities , so determining whether crypto assets are securities is a vital prerequisite to determining whether the defendants unlawfully effected transactions in securities on the account of others. Similarly, the registration requirement for exchanges depends on entities meeting the definition of exchange, which requires that the exchange constitute, maintain or provide a market for buyers / sellers of securities . If none of the crypto assets are deemed securities, then much (if not all) of the enforcement action would fail. Conversely if any one of the crypto assets is deemed a security, then the enforcement action would succeed at least in part. Further, if the altcoins are legally held to be unregistered securities, then the exchanges may have unlawfully failed to register as exchanges, which registration comes with heavy disclosure requirements, and defendants may be liable for engaging in multiple unregistered offers and sales of crypto assets deemed as securities as well as other illegal schemes. Further panic has been arising from derivative effects of these actions. To illustrate, reports have also circulated that Robinhood, a widely used trading platform for retail, has been "delisting" (dropping from its platform) major crypto tokens, although SquishTrade will recommend readers research this issue further for confirmation. Even if such reports were not correct, they instill panic, and their effects plainly follow from the legal actions. This discussion of fundamentals are presented solely for context . This post will not delve into further detail about the litigation nor will it discuss whether the legal actions are well grounded in fact or law. No speculation will be raised as to the probable legal outcome or ramifications of a particular adverse judgment against any crypto exchange defendant. Instead, the focus will remain on price, which is the best and most efficient processor of all fundamental information available. It's not always efficient and timely, but it is likely faster processor of all fundamental information than the best research team on the planet. Technical Analysis Focused on Longer-Term Trends Polygon (MATIC) has fallen over -32% in the past 10 days since June 1, 2023. Since the swing high in February 2023, MATIC has plummeted approximately –67.55%. The recent sharp downdraft in various altcoins may appear formidable, p and befuddling especially to those focused on intraday or even daily time frames, i.e., trends of much smaller degree than the ones shown here. Further, with leverage or oversized positions, a position traders may be stunned and unable to manage their positions. This would be true even for an experienced trader who had the foresight and discipline to buy the December 2022 lows ($.75) who may still be significantly underwater at this point if profits were not taken in a strategic or programmatic way. However, longer-term investors / position traders in this Ethereum-based Polygon network may do well to zoom out somewhat given the news. Doing so, they might discover that the very long-term trend remains higher in Polygon. Consider the 4-year uptrend line on the Primary Chart above. It hasn't been touched since November 2020. Furthermore, the long-term Fibonacci retracement levels (logarithmic only) show that even the shallowest of the widely followed levels has held as support since the peak in December 2021. The shallowest retracement level, Fibonacci .236 proportion, is shown below in Supplementary Chart A at $.53. Supplementary Chart A The next shallowest level is the Fibonacci .382 retracement (again on the highest degree of trend available here), which falls at $.19, also shown in magenta on Supplementary Chart A above and Supplementary Chart B below. Supplementary Chart B Of course, uptrends frequently retrace to .50 and .618 retracements as well. This could take MATIC to significantly lower levels shown in gold and green lines on the Primary Chart above. But discussing such distant Fibonacci support levels under .085 might be getting a bit ahead of where price action trades now. As shown on the Primary Chart, the uptrend line for 4 years has not been tagged since November 2021. This is not to say that it won't be. SEC enforcement actions are not to be taken lightly by investors or the defendants. A couple more long-term technical levels that are more dynamic should be mentioned. Supplementary Chart C shows an both an anchored VWAP from the all-time high and an all-time low (based on available data for Matic Network / TetherUS). Notice how the major low of 2022 tagged the anchored VWAP from April 2019 where the data begins on the chart. And MATIC's price found resistance at the VWAP anchored to the all-time high repeatedly, with one false break above it, confirming this level as strong resistance. So a trend-based analysis based on volume-weighted average price tells us that price remains in sideways consolidation within a very long-term uptrend—at least until price breaks and holds below the VWAP from the all-time low . Supplementary Chart C No one knows what will happen if price arrives at this uptrend line, but many trend-based traders and investors look for risk-defined entries at very long-term trendline support, with tight risk at / near the line itself to play for a sizeable bounce at a minimum or even a resumption of the larger-degree trend higher. But if the trendline is invalidated, the risk will have been kept small. Managing risk is vital since no one can say with certainty whether a trend will resume or whether it will resume at the trendline where it resumed after past countertrend moves. The same can be said for the key Fibonacci levels, each one providing a trend-based investor or analyst with another pivot to watch for support where a countertrend retracement may end and the shorter term trends realign with the longer-term trend. Does this longer-term trend provide absolute reassurance, a guarantee of sorts, that many nervous crypto investors want concerning whether this long-term trend will remain intact? No. In fact, no such guarantees exist in financial markets—this holds true regardless of whether one is bullish, bearish or non-directional / neutral. The aphorism in trading and investing is to make the trend your friend until the end, when it bends. Even long-term trends break, adjust, change, or reverse. To illustrate, consider that the upward trendline shown on the primary chart (monthly) could be broken and reconstituted if monetary policy continues to remain tight (or even to whipsaw as some argue). This may not mean a trend reversal on this very high degree of trend, it may just mean that the trend continues albeit at a less steep slope. Trends with steeper slopes have a tendency to be broken more easily than trends with less steep slopes (in downtrends or uptrends). This may be a result in part of the mean-reverting nature of price action on all time frames, from the shortest to the longest. In technical analysis, trend continuation should be favored over trend reversal. Further, when bullish trend-based supports are reached, no one ever feels that good about going long because the news has been awful to get price down to that level. And here, the term "trend" refers to the 4-year trend shown on the Primary Chart, which may be deemed an extended primary trend (which typically fall between 6 months and two years but can extend longer) or even a secular trend given its duration. In short, if a countertrend move is occurring, traders and investors should consider it more likely for the trend to continue than for it to reverse on this time frame and degree of trend. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell MATIC. Instead, this is an attempt at an objective conversation about longer-term trends in this altcoin in light of recent regulatory lawsuits involving whether it may be an unregistered security as held on most exchanges. SquishTrade at the time of writing holds no position in MATIC or any MATIC derivative. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
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Waiting for the stark reality of economy to be exposed!Op-ed: The charts show global stocks could retest their March lows later this year www.cnbc.com Key points: From a technical analysis perspective , global stock indexes in March wiped out critical long-term support factors pertaining to the entire multiyear rallies since the conclusion of the global financial crisis bear markets, that have driven many stock indexes to all-time highs. From our technical perspective, although the short-term outlook into June remains for further upside, we do not see most of the major benchmarks challenging the current 2020 cycle highs. Given that markets remain contained below the peaks from the first quarter of 2020 at the end of the second quarter and taking into consideration the above-mentioned damage inflicted to the long-term charts, the threat in the next two quarters is for a roll back down lower into the very wide ranges established by the first-quarter sell-offs. From a macroeconomic perspective , a more negative outlook could be driven by the lifting of lockdowns allowing for the removal of fiscal accommodation by governments, which could expose the stark reality of a post-pandemic global economy, damaged by the measures taken during global lockdowns. Furthermore, there is also the risk of a second wave of coronavirus cases and deaths as lockdowns are eased, potentially seeing lockdown measures reinstated. Finally, the growing resumption of tensions between China the U.S. (as well as other nations), could lead to a renewal of the 2019 trade war. With most commentators agreeing that the economic recovery is likely to be U-shaped at best or even L-shaped at worst, the likelihood of a V-shaped recovery by the global economy seems unlikely, which is likely going to be needed to continue the aggressive V-shaped rebound in stock indexes. In summary then, although the short/intermediate-term outlook remains for renewed upside for the major global stock averages into June, we do not see a resumption of intermediate or longer-term bull trends. Rather, markets could likely be contained within the broader ranges defined by the first-quarter 2020 bear markets, or possibly even into the second half of 2020 to retest the March 2020 bear move lows.
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