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USDJPY - EDGY BOJ TURNS YEN TURBULENT; KURODA SPEECH *USDJPY: 1. Price action immediately following BOJ this september was more than erratic but at the same time showed some consistency for those of you who can remember back to Julys performance - we moved instantly lower on the decision to 101 flat, before ripping 180pips higher to 102.8 to then lose most of the bids and trade back to the 101 base. 2. The BOJ decision itself, imo, was less than clear compared to July though and almost warranted this kind of whipsaw behaviour - especially given the anticipation (or not so much) of the Fed later today which is likely to mingle with risk sentiment and dollar leg of USDJPY the like at some point. - The unclearness regarding whether the policy decision was net hawkish or dovish was given that there was no changes to the main policy tools (Depo, LSP, JGB, ETF), it would leave one thinking neutral-hawkish on expecttions - especially given a 5bps cut was the median BBG forecast. However, on the other hand, you had statements from BOJ including, "BOJ expanding its monetary base until it reaches its 2% inflation target" which is somewhat dovish given it puts never ending monthly JGB 80-100trn yen on the table for the next few years (unless the BOJ is delusional that less time is required). But at the same time this dovish statement was met by a bid from the BOJ to "increase yields for 10y JGB to 0%" and steepen the curve - which in itself is highly contradiction of ANY further expansion to the monetary base (given increases in money supply reduces rates). The BOJ knowing this then went on to cover saying "pace of purchases may fluctuate as to meet 0% target". Thus all in all the above, for me at least, left the overall decision uncertain at best. Given we are only 0.2% down it would be fair to say the outcome was infact neutral. Neutral BOJ and No hike Hawkish Fed was my prediction before (see attached) and i stand behind the 100 level being reached as USD demand is likely to be flushed at some level when the 10-20% priced into USD fed funds is flushed out. BOJ Decision: JAPAN BOJ RATE DECISION STAYS FLAT AT -0.1 % (FCAST -0.1 %) VS PREV -0.1 % BOJ DECIDES TO SET TARGET FOR LONG TERM INTEREST RATES JAPAN BOJ BASE MONEY TARGET STAYS FLAT AT 80 TLN JPY (FCAST 80.00 TLN JPY) VS PREV 80.00 TLN JPY BOJ: ADOPTS QQE WITH YIELD CURVE CONTROL BOJ: TO ABANDON MONETARY BASE TARGET BOJ SAYS NO OFFICIAL BASE MONEY TARGET, BUT MAINTAINS ANNUAL PACE OF JGB BUYING AT 80 TRLN YEN BOJ: TO KEEP BUYING JGBS SO BALANCE OF ITS HOLDINGS INCREASES AT ANNUAL PACE OF 80 TRLN YEN BOJ: INTRODUCES NEW MARKET OPS FOR YIELD CURVE CONTROL BOJ: TO BUY JGBS SO 10 YR YIELD HOVERS AROUND 0 PCT BOJ: PURCHASING YIELDS WILL BE SET PER AUCTION BY INDICATING THE SPREAD FROM THE BENCHMARK YIELD WHICH BOJ DETERMINES SEPARATELY BOJ: DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS MAY SET JGB PURCHASE SIZE PER AUCTION TO FIXED AMOUNT OR UNLIMITED AMOUNT BOJ: SCRAPS RANGE FOR DURATION OF JGBS THAT BOJ BUYS BOJ: BOJ TO CONTINUE EXPANDING MONETARY BASE UNTIL CPI EXCEEDS 2 PCT AND STAYS ABOVE TARGET IN STABLE MANNER BOJ: ADOPTS COMMITMENT TO LET INFLATION OVERSHOOT ABOVE 2 PCT BOJ: BOJ CAN CUT SHORT TERM POLICY RATE, TARGET LEVEL OF LONG TERM RATES IN FUTURE EASING BOJ: BOJ TO CONTINUE EXPANDING MONETARY BASE UNTIL CPI EXCEEDS 2 PCT AND STAYS ABOVE TARGET IN STABLE MANNER BOJ: BOJ MAY ACCELERATE EXPANSION OF MONETARY BASE AS FUTURE POLICY OPTION BOJ: PACE OF MONETARY BASE INCREASE MAY FLUCTUATE IN SHORT RUN UNDER MARKET OP THAT AIMS TO CONTROL YIELD CURVE BOJ: MAINTAINS COMMITMENT TO ACHIEVE 2 PCT INFLATION AT EARLIEST DATE POSSIBLE BOJ Kuroda:
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
USDJPY: FADE SHORT ON RALLIES; BUY 104.1 BREAKOUT$Yen - There is little impetus for this pair this week, with this recent rally likely part of the NFP report flushing out. - Nonetheless from here I maintain my bearish bias given the BOJ and JPN govts massive let downs I think USDJPY topside will struggle and we will move through 100 once the risk-off tone returns (which is likely once the equities rally/ excitement fades... and still waiting); thus, short on rallies into key resistance levels e.g. 102.5, 103.3 is advised. - However, between the 103.3 and 104.1 level there seems to be an area of "No mans land" which is filled with contradictory bullish/ bearish signals thus i advise not trading the pair between this range. - Furthermore a break above 104 and close on the daily and my view turns to bullish - citing the relative lows e.g. $yen already 20% down so struggling to fall more or a medium term risk-on shift maintaining thus driving the pair higher through weaker yen demand. Trading strategy: 1. Sell $yen at 102.5 resistance, 101.6tp1 101tp2. 2. PotentiallY buy $yen on a 104.1 break-out but I will advise on this if it becomes the case.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
15
USDJPY/ GBPJPY: BUY $YEN IF DATA MISSES; SELL £YEN IF DATA HITSThe Risky BOJ front run trade using CPI inferences - I find it very interesting that the BOJ is releasing ALL of its key economic data (minus GDP) before making the easing decision, especially as we have already had CPI data this month so we will have an 2 CPI releases in one month which ive never seen happen before (CPI from JPY is usually due next week). - This to me indicates strongly that 1) All of the data released e.g. CPI, employment, retail sales, industrial production has some weighting on the BOJ decision and 2) that CPI especially has perhaps the strongest weighting on the BOJ decision as they are releasing 2 CPI prints in one month which means they brought forward the measurement by a week - this means they value the CPI print strongly. - Therefore, knowing this, in an ideal world either 1) ALL of the data will contract, which puts more pressure on a big BOJ easing package or 2) ALL of the data improves which eases the the pressure on the BOJ package - thus from here we are then able to take risk with an "educated" guess of what the policy will tend to be i.e. big or smaller. Long USDJPY if CPI less than -0.4% and generally weak/ miss other data: 1. The rationale is that a lower than expected and last print shows the JPY economy is decelerating even more aggressively than in previous months and therefore the BOJ will me MORE inclinded to ease heavier, as the data suggests there is a bigger problem. - Obviously the data/ CPI print imo acts as a function of BOJ easing, if we get massive misses across the slew of data then we should expect a bigger easing package than if there is only a slight miss - therefore we should treat our trades the same way. 2. Long USDJPY by xlots depending on the serverity of the data miss e.g. if CPI was -1.0% and unemployment ticked up to 3.4% i would do 3lots long usdjpy. If it was -0.5% and 3.3% i would do 1lot for example. Short GBPJPY if CPI is greater than -0.4% and other data generally hits/ is positive 1. The rationale is the opposite of the above - we assume if data improves that the BOJ will be less inclined to do a big easing package so we expect yen to remain strong so we go long yen and short GBP. - Once again the lot size is a function of the serverity of the data e.g. if CPI turned positive to 0.1% and unemployment dropped to 3% we would short 3lots. vs only 1lot if CPI ticked up only 10bps from last and unemployment ticked down only 10bps. Risks to the view: 1. The First risk is that data in general is considered to have "underlying trends" so the fact one print is outstandingly bad/ good might NOT impact policy e.g. thin about US NFP that was less than 100k and shocked markets - but it was a one off so didnt make the FOMC cut rates back. 3. Data underlying trends thus can reduce the weighting this data is given e.g. even if CPI improved to 0.1% from -0.4%, the BOJ could argue this is a one off print as the underlying trend for the past 6m+ has been negative inflation thus they will go ahead with a big easing package. - HOWEVER , the above point "3" in mind i believe data to the downside will be given a greater weighting than data to the upside, so we should have a short yen bias as weak data has been the underlying trend for most data points (especially CPI). -Further, i also think tail-end/ RHS/ LHS results will be given a proportionately larger weighting in their decision so this should also be reflected in our trading e.g. if CPI was -2% from -0.4% i would be a much much more aggressive buyer of UJ than if a -0.5% print from -0.4% is seen. The same can be said to the topside, if i saw +1.5% inflation from -0.4% last i would be a much greater seller of GBPJPY than if i saw -0.3% CPI from -0.4%.
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
BOJ: JPY V USD, EUR, GBP - WHAT THE OPTION MARKET IS TELLING US50 Delta ATM Volatilities: USDJPY - - $Yen has an ATM implied volatility curve of 55.95%mrkt 24.08%1wk 18.31%2wk 14.12%1m - Obviously we are aggressively steeper in the front end, with BOJ tomorrow and JPY MOF Fiscal Package details coming next week providing heightened vol for the 1day and 1wk vols - naturally we then see the curve tail off as the event vol fades. GBPJPY - - £Yen has an ATM implied volatility curve of 58.66%mrkt 25.93%1wk 23.02%2wk 18.30%1m - The same can be said about sterling yens ATM curve, adding that it is steeper accross the tenors as the recently heightened GBP risk/ BOE event vol is priced into the 1wks and 2wks greater relatively vs $yen, with 1ms also outperforming $Yen as the perceived GBP risk/ vol post-brexit carries higher vs the USD. EURJPY - - EUROYEN has an ATM implied volatility curve of 49.42%mrkt 22.82%1wk 18.03%2wk 14.23%1m - EUROYEN mirrors $yen from 1wk-1m as the term structure is very similar for eur vs usd (no significant event vol expected). Though we see a notable 6-7vol divergence in the current vol which is expected as $Yen expressions are favourable for BOJ out-performance positionings (USD a firmer based/ more widely traded) and £Yen are favourable for BOJ under-performance structures as BOE next week compunds the attractiveness in the downside of the cross (BOE likely to ease) which in turn increases the demand for £Yen expression on a BOJ no-show. 25Delta Risk Reversals (25d call vol minus 25d put vol - examines the relative demand) USDJPY - - $Yen RRs are +3 mrkt, +0.62 1wk, -0.67 2wk, -0.81m - Interestingly we are seeing a moderate $Yen topside coverage in the front end (e.g. current and 1wks) implying the market is hedging/ positioning for a BOJ Out-performance Surprise (call demand > Put). The RRs are quite small at +1 so i wouldnt say there is a huge consensus on BOJ HIT expectations. Nonetheless calls are likely being purchased to hedge underlying spot short positions in the near term as any $yen/ BOJ topside is expected to not last long and be faded aggressively - which explains the switch to negative RRs after the BOJ/ MOF events have passed. GBPJPY - - £Yen RRs are -6 mrkt, -3 1wk, -1.3 2wk, -2.2 1m - Understandably SterlingYen has a different RR structure as BOJ and BOE predispositions are priced into option structures, rather than just BOJ (as is the case for £yen and euroyen) - so we see a strong put bias, particularly in the front end (current and 1wks) as these cover the BOE and BOJ event vol. Unlike $Yen we see there is a clear trend for BOJ miss/ downside speculation as it is the logical chosen proxy, as a BOJ miss is highly likely to then be compounded over the current and 1wk terms as BOE hit expectations are priced in, accelerating the GBPJPY to the downside and RRs towards the LHS (BOJ miss = yen strength, BOE hit = Streling weakness - aggressive downside). Also put gbpjpy, automatically hedges any BOJ hit/topside risk as 1wk later the BOE is likely to ease so any yen downside arising from a BOJ hit will likely be smoothed somewhat by BOE easing induced GBP selling; thus lessening the negative impact or even turning the position back into the money.
by QuantumLogicTrading
6
LONG USDJPY: ANOTHER BOJ OUTPERFORM CASE - 28TRN GOVT STIMULUSAnother argument for the BOJ outperform case - Post BOJ Buy $Yen @MRKT 111tp: 1. We know BOJ and JPY Govt Abe/ Aso have had many meetings post-brexit and as it follows the JPY Govt have announced today that they will deliver a fiscal stimulus package of 28trn - which was to the very right of the curve (10-30 was talked about). - This in mind, imo it is rational to extrapolate that 1) surely if the JPY govt are choosing a tail end stimulus package (aggressive), BOJ will be inclined to do also? Given that it is the BOJ remit for economic targets like inflation, not the governments - BOJ wouldnt want to be seen as dropping the egg would they e.g. govt does as much as it can but BOJ only midly eases - doesnt make sense? Especially given the relationship between kuroda/ aso/ abe it would almost be impossible. - 2) The BOJ will know/ see that the JPY Govt are taking the "extreme" side of measures, so once again this puts the BOJ under-pressure to do the same as they dont want to be seen as "letting the side down" especially as it is the BOJ who really has the power to change things - the Fiscal package is rather an indicative/ nice gesture of the govts willingness to help - rather than any real hard easing when you consider the Govt package is likely to be 28trn a year but the BOJ purchases/ injects 80trn A MONTH to its monetary based in JGBs - thats 960trn a year. So 27trn govt vs 960trn BOJ - is the govt really making an impact or are they instead signalling their commitment/ putting pressure on the BOJ? I think so. Under-performance case: 1. Perhaps less meaty, but nonetheless a valid point - Japan, JPY Govt and BOJ have lived with low inflation/ deflation for the past several decades and no "extreme" action has been taken to resolve it (well not enough to fix the problem anyway) so this pressure on the BOJ we talk about above - is it real? or is it a theoretical pressure that they "Must" hit their targets? - If history predicts the future then yes, it is a theoretical economic pressure - they haven't hit the target for 20yrs so why would they do measures to hit it now? There's no public pressure, im sure theyre happy consuming at lower prices - unlike with high unemployment. - Off topic but it would be interesting to see a Japan with high Unemployment - an economic indicator that causes civil unrest (Greece riots) and is a necessity to be solved for the wellbeing of any nation - thus my bets are if unemployment was at 15-20% (similar comparison to deflation) for the past 15yrs something drastic WOULD have been done a long time ago, or be done on Friday to fix it. After all, theres no driver to fix something that doesnt really need fixing is there? Think about the last time you went to extreme measures to fix something that wasn't much of an issue...
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
11
USDJPY: BOJ - FINAL THOUGHTS; FUNDAMENTAL/ TECHNICAL ANALYSISAt market price: 1. At 104 $yen offers an attractive buy and sell side - from the position of not knowing what the BOJ will do.. - I dont think that this pull-back to 104 is a material shift in risk-sentiment, rather i think this is a technical sell-off where the 107 pivot was hit (as highlighted) at which point BOJ/ UJ bulls lost confidence on their long positions which in turn caused a cascade of $Yen selling on profit taking - right into the 104 pivot. Also as you can see the price traded to 50% retracement of the risk-rally price (currently at 40%) after 4days - i dont consider this a fundamental risk-shift, such a shift would cause much more aggressive selling in fewer days e.g. 50% in 1-2 days, rather than 4 - this just looks like a technical pull-back and i wouldnt be surprised to see use move into the 105mids again. However, A break below 104 and I would agree that this is a BOJ market expectations move/ shift in risk sentiment to risk-off. 2. Most of you will know that I have been a $yen bull for some time citing policy divergence and future policy divergence as the reasoning. - So this in mind, going into BOJ/ Fiscal stimulus, where policy divergence is likely to increase, how does this affect my bullish $yen view? Bullish $Yen arguments: 1. The base case remains approximately 10bps to the depo rate, 10bps to the LSP, yen10trn to JGB and some 50-100% increase to the annual ETF from 3.3trn + the median expectation of stimulus is Yen15trn. - So from a bulls perspective i wonder, how much of this move is already priced in, given the 5-6% move from 100/101 certainly wasn't for free - I think at the 106/7 level pretty much all of the base view is priced e.g. 10bps depo, 10bps LSP, yen10trn JGB increase and yen10-15trn of fiscal stimulus.. - Thus to make a position worth while imo the BOJ/ Fiscal Stimulus is going to have to outperform the median expectation. Imo in order to see 111 and for $yen to trade at such levels as an average for the next 3-6, we would have to see the base case almost doubled; e.g. 20bps to the depo, 20bps to the LSP, yen20trn JGB and perhaps yen20-30trn fiscal stimulus (which has been mentioned). The case for BOJ beating expectations: - I think the market is somewhat underestimating the BOJ/ Govt at only 6bps given the BOJ is seeing an already -0.4% deflationary environment (-0.5% in Tokyo) when - 1) Yen is up 20-30% in 2016 vs most ccys - which is even more deflationary, they need a big package to reduce this; 2) 9 consecutive months of exports falling aggressively - deflationary and a function of strengthening Yen - needs to be combated by aggressive easing policy to devalue the yen for sustained period; 3) No policy change since January - so they have had 6 months of policy transmission, where the situation has worsened, to see now something drastic is needed; 4) Brexit/ Fed hike/ US Election/ China/ other risk-off factors likely to drive yen further up in the future - thus preemptive action needs to be taken now; 5) Great Pressure from JPY Govt/ public given -0.4%CPI is the rate they had back in 2014 when they started the massive QEE programme - basically hasnt changed in 2yrs - BOJ underpressure for results; 6) BOJ knows markets are ready to sell any "average" easing - so they know they need to be aggressive to beat/ get infront of the marker; 7) BOJ knows its perhaps the last and best time to reclaim any market trust/ confidence - anything less than extraordinary and market will continue selling any future BOJ policy as they are already inclined to do - Since BOJ/ Kuroda confidence is low as they have failed to deliver on several previous big occasions e.g. April. - If the above materialises I advise buying $Yen at market price, with a 109-111TP.
by QuantumLogicTrading
6
USDJPY: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MA, KEY SUPPORT, STANDEV, IV>HV, RRYen$ Technical analysis - Bullish but fundamentally driven this week: Key level close: 1. On the daily and weekly we closed above the 2nd strongest pivot point of recent times at 1.055 - this is very supportive as historically this is the strongest level (next to 100/101). MA: 1. We trade above the 4wk ma and the 3m MA is acting as strong support (black line) - this is a supportive/ bullish indication but we have been below the 6m MA since the beginning of the year as the 2016 safe havens have outperformed - this indicates we are seeing a risk-recovery which concurs with initial thoughts IV/ HV: 1. Realised Vols have also unsurprisingly come off, this is bullish but bare in mind that brexit has distorted some of the longer dated HV (still high) and caused the spike in the shorted dated HV. Relatively, Implied vols are steepening higher than HV - with 1wk, 2wk and 1m Implied vols trade at 23.84%, 19.42%, 15.28% vs HV 1wk 2wk 1m at 6.35%, 13.16%, 17.18% - so IV is greater than HV across the front end which is bearish - though imo this shouldnt be considered so as BOJ event vol premiums are likely the culprit for the curve steepening - especially at the 1wk-2wk tenors (vs realised) so this isnt necessarily bearish. Deviation Channels/ Support levels: 1. We Trade close to the top of the 6m deviation channel at 1.0700 as we witness a recovery rally, this could be condisered bearish as we could see resistance here, but as i said i think fundamentals are more at play here than the techs. Looking at the 12m SD channel, this is more appropriate and shows us trading just above the average 12m price at 105- hence there is definitely more room for upside to 110 and we have just crossed the middle regression line implying we are entering some yearly upside deviation now, with the +2SD resistance level at 110 which is in line with the price support level at 1.09-11. Risk-Reversals 1. 25 delta Risk reversals trade bearish for $Yen, with current at -1, 1wks at -0.4 and 2wks at -0.2 and 1m at -1 - this suggest the $yen has a slight downside bias but is potentially searching for direction going into the big BOJ meeting on the 29th - investors are not committing much to a delivery or non-delivery, as the 1wks trade nearly flat at -0.4 - maybe this will change over the course of the week, but it indicates that we may see $yen trade calmly before the storm as a pose to heavy positioning before the event. - Though 3m risk reversals trade with a clearer downside bias at -1.7 which shows the market expects $Yen to trade lower in the 3m term- likely a result of investors expecting the risk-off trend of 2016 to continue. Option Demand: Significant put vol demand around the 105.5 pivot point, highly likely to be investors betting on a bearish turning on the break of the level (though expiry in 2 days). Going forward we see more call demand, on Wednesday we have large 106.25 notional and thursday 107.25 notional respectively - likely buying a pre-event $yen breakout as investors usually prince in too much of a BOJ delivery. *Check the attached posts for indepth fundamentals*
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
USDJPY: LONG UPDATE - RENEWED JPY FISCAL STIMULUS SPECULATION?I posted earlier with my 107 USDJPY breakout trade (see attached post) - one of the reasons I said to long USDJPY on the 107 break-out was due to JPY Govt stimulus speculation. In the last few hours we have seen fresh speculation of the JPY stimulus, with JPY20trn now being discussed/ proposed to be on the table - this renewed rhetoric is nothing but positive for the 107 breakout long trade i posted a few hours ago and supports it as YEN20trn is approximately $200bn, which is certainly enough new liquidity to give confidence to markets and spur risk markets onto fresh highs - further this JPY Govt stimulus is speculated to be combined WITH BOJ easing, so markets get a compounded risk rally since there are two potential drivers (BOJ cut rates by 10-20bps + add to maturity/ purchases of JGB and EFT). Plus today after seeing the RBNZ's dovish economic assessment (where an Aug cut is almost 100%), this gives risk markets even more fuel thus encouraging $yen to trade to the 109-111 levels i expect - though BOE K. Forbes hawkish comments negate some of this. The new JPY Fiscal stimulus speculation: 1. JAPANESE GOVERNMENT CONSIDERING 20 TRILLION YEN STIMULUS PACKAGE SAYS KYODO - "The government initially envisaged compiling a stimulus package of somewhat more than 10 trillion yen . But the size is likely to double as the package will now include projects for fiscal 2017 and beyond and increase "zaito" low-interest government loans by 6 trillion yen," Kyodo reports. 2. "The government initially envisaged compiling a stimulus package of somewhat more than 10 trillion yen . But the size is likely to double as the package will now include projects for fiscal 2017 and beyond and increase "zaito" low-interest government loans by 6 trillion yen," Kyodo reports. 3. "The stimulus could be even larger, they report. And able will look for the rubber stamp from the Cabinet in early August. About half will be earmarked for infrastructure." Trading strategy going forward: 1. Trading strategy remains the same from the 107 breakout post that i made earlier e.g. 109TP1, 111TP2 - all that has changed from the post before is that the strategy has been reaffirmed/ strengthened upon this renewed JPY stimulus speculation , given this was one of the drivers i cited to move USDJPY to the 109 then 111 level once the 107 confirmation level was broken. - In early asia trading, as yesterday, net risk sentment remains stable with safe havens gold, yen and bonds down as well as risk, though risk down slightly less. For the day, I expect risk-on sentiment to win as Thursday historically is the best day for stocks (before going into the friday end of week sell-off) + post market Wednesday some large firms posted outperforming earnings which should continue helping the risk appetite move higher (Intel + Morgan stanley beating EPS and revenue forecasts) when the main LDN and NY sessions get underway down the line. *Check the "USDJPY: BUY THE BREAKOUT" post attached for more details on the trade discussed above posted 7 hours ago*
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
7
USDJPY: BUY THE 107 BREAKOUT - RISK-ON TO CONTINUE - BOJ/ BOEUSDJPY: 1 . Been watching $yen closely as my top 2 trades this week (along with GU). As expected/ foretasted 107 was the next key risk sentiment resistance level after 104 and after buying the 104 breakout i have confidence/ advise buying the 107 breakout - we have now crossed the 3m moving average at 106 which provides support/ confirms bullish move. 2 Risk has been depressed excessively in the past 6-months but more so directly after brexit - this risk rally (SP highs etc and UJ higher) isn't a fundamental change in risk sentiment imo (e.g. i dont forecast an UJ uptrend now) however i do believe this is a 2-4wk risk recovery before moving lower again back through the 104 level to the 102. 3. This risk recovery is being fueled by 1) JPY/ BOJ Stimulus hopes since the BOJ hasnt cut its rate since January the market expects strong easing from JPY Govt and BOJ. 2) Markets expect a 25bps cut in the Bank Rate and GBP80bn extension in BOE QE. 3) Several other CBs e.g. RBA/ RBNZ/ PBOC/ ECB are also expected to ease at some-point in 2016 so all speculations are being priced into this risk rally as upside. 4) As mentioned above, risk was depressed for several weeks into/ out of brexit so this is a recovery leg higher e.g. shorts profit taking/ washed out. Volatility: 1. Current 25 delta Risk Reversals RR trade negative at -1.7, indicating either 1) the market is long Spot UJ but covering the downside possibility with options or 2) Option speculators like their chances with UJ lower - given the bullish bias id like to think the first is true. 2wk RR covering the BOJ however surprisingly trade close to flat at -0.3 - i see this as the market really not knowing what to expect/ sitting on the fence. Usually we see a strong bias to put's or call's but given BOJ/ Kurodas history (under-delivery) but also the current situation it makes sense why the market is flat with positioning. 1. IV 1wk and 2wk is: 11.41% and 19.27% and realised is: 6.35% and 13.16% - IV outperforming HV is a bearish signal but given the way markets have been rallying it is unsurprising that demand has increased (i dont see this as a bearish sign). Notably we see a spiking of 2wk IV at 19.27 vs 13.16HV which covers the BOJ meeting, thus clearly there is alot of anticipation going into the meeting.. i expect 28th vol to increase as we get closer to the event which could cause UJ selling however, BOJ expectations will outweight this (e.g. if 20bps + QE is expected we will see UJ upside). Trading Strategy: 1. Buy USDJPY 107 break-out - should be 100pip+ squeeze as shorts are washed out as clearly there are alot of sellers in the market here who will have stops above the big fig (wait for confirmation e.g. high time frame close above 107.) 109TP1, 111TP2 - I don't see USDJPY breaking the pre-brexit recovery rally highs at 112 - if it we were to, this could perhaps signal a true shift in risk sentiment (e.g. market is now fully risk on). - Late now but as initially mentioned this trade combined with the short GU worked well at hedging the risk-on risk-off dynamics at play (see attached) - still if GU retestes 1.33/4 shorts are strong at this level. 2. Assuming my initial assumption is correct e.g. <112 is the terminal rate for this recovery rally, I will then turn net seller of USDJPY and sell to 107TP1 104TP2 100.5TP3 but I will post about that nearer the time. 3. On a side note, if we were not to break 107 (unlikely as safe havens are taking heavy losses and stocks continue to make new highs) this level could be the risk sentiment pivot, but i would update if that becomes the case. If we do not break 107 today, it should be tomorrow as thursday is the traditional risk-on day. Risks to the view: 1. Obvious risk to the view is that 1) JPY/ BOJ easing expectations wane which cause the bull rally to fade - something which is highly possible but more and more unlikely as we get closer (only 8 days away). 2) An unforeseeable risk-o
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
LONG DXY/ USD VS GBP: HAWKISH FOMC LOCKHART SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSFOMC Lockhart was the 4th Fed this week to imo be relatively Hawkish with his words, most notably reinforcing with the others brexits near-term stability saying "Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy" and " So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly". Most interestingly though was Lockharts view on the FOMC's positioning for future rate increases, saying "Won't Rule Out Two Rate Rises This Year" - which is extremely hawkish given most expect 1 at the most.. Back up this sentiment by insisting that the Fed is "Fed Not Behind Curve, Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move". Nonethless Lockhart did somewhat contradict his "rate expectations" by saying "Time for 'Cautious and Patient Approach' to Rate Policy" which surely shouldn't be the case if 2 hikes are coming - that would be on the aggressive side. All in all, Lockharts comments go hand in hand with my Bullish medium term USD/ DXY view (see previous articles) - I like the USD vs EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, NZD in the medium term so long DXY/ USD is favoured, even more so if 2 rate hikes were to be realised this year. At current levels short GBPUSD is my favourite expression FOMC RATE HIKE IMPLIED PROBABILITIES - On the likelihood of rate increases, in the past 24 hours, from the Federal Funds Rate implied probability curve we have seen rates/ probabilities firm after yesterdays "risk-break" recovery, with a 25bps September/ Nov hike steepening to 17.2% from 11.7%(Wed), and Dec setting new highs at 35.9% from 29.5% (Wed) - Dec also went on to double the probability of a 50bps hike to 5.1% vs 2.8%(Wed), giving Lockharts comments some weight. FOMC Lockhart Speech Highlights: -Fed's Lockhart: Fed Not Behind Curve, Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move -Lockhart: Time for 'Cautious and Patient Approach' to Rate Policy -Lockhart: So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly -Lockhart: 'Brexit' Will Increase Long Term Uncertainty -Lockhart: Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy -Lockhart: Bond Market Yields Largely Reflect Flight-To-Quality Buying -Lockhart: Too Soon to Say 'All Clear' for Financial Markets -Lockhart: 'Brexit' Not a 'Leman Moment' -Lockhart: Still Expects U.S. to Grow by 2%, Expects More Job Gains -Lockhart: Economy is 'Performing Adequately' -Lockhart Says Fed Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move -Fed's Lockhart: Presidential Election May Be Boosting Economic Uncertainty -Fed's Lockhart: Won't Rule Out Two Rate Rises This Year
TVC:DXYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
BUY USDJPY @104 & SELL GBPUSD @1.33: RISK-ON, POLITICS, BOJ, BOEThe Federal Reserve's regulatory point man said work to address the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis won't be complete without better regulation of short-term funding both inside and outside the banking system. St Louis Fed President Jim Bullard may be the Fed's new super dove, but he's no pessimist, he says. Bullard is the lone Fed official forecasting just one additional rate increase, and expects modest growth over the next two and a half years. But he reiterated Tuesday he's not expecting the economy to head south. Trading Strategy 1. Given this I remain bullish on the $ in the medium term, despite this spike in risk-on which IMO is unlikely to last more than 2wks. In the immediate term I like long $yen as the best play ATM vs other expressions - with a target of 109, entry at 104 as 1) the markets have finally signalled they are ready for a recovery bull run, post the brexit risk-off/ safe haven rally - largley on the back of CB stimulus. I believe USDJPY has been the most sold risk-on asset, thus it is now ripe for buying; 2) JPY fiscal stimulus is likely to come; 3) BOJ is likely to deliver 10-20bps of cuts to its interest rate 4) we have broken the 104 "brexit seller resistance level" which has held since the vote - this break imo means we can now move to 109+ as the recovery leg before resuming lower; 5) the Fed Funds Rate curve continues to steepen across the curve but particularly aggressively in the front end (yesterday 10ys adding 5%) and as a result implied probabilities of hikes continue to rally across the 2016/17 tenors (Dec hike now 33.7% vs 29.2%Mon); 5) check the attached posts for long $jpy support 2. Secondly, short GBP$ is a trade i am closely eyeing.. I am a 70% seller at 1.32 (90% at 1.35) - short GBP rallies is the preferred trade as the BOE is likely to deliver easing in Aug that will drive us down to the 1.25 terminal rate that I have predicted - thus i am hoping we get some "poor information money" flows into GBP up to 1.34/5 going into Friday as 1) UK Political Uncertainty is eased - as Theresa May is the New PM starting Wednesday; 2) GBP buying on Thursday if the BOE doesn't cut rates, whilst I (and the market) believes an august cut is the likelihood instead, given the aggressive GBP selling these past weeks it is prudent to assume quite a large amount of money may/was be betting on a July Cut thus if this "disappoints" some of the market we could see cable trade higher to 1.34+; 3) Long GBP is the risk-on trade, so if risk holds up/ carries on rallying we could see GBP$ take us to 1.34+ - CB and Fiscal stimulus + the fact risk has been depressed for so long, i believe risk has the momentum to rally until the end of the week at least (next risk-rally then looks to 28th July for BOJ stimulus?) 3. The long $Yen and short GBP$ also acts as a dynamic hedge as the long UJ is the risk-on coverage, with the short cable the risk-off half - combining both semi-hedges your exposure, something i like to do when trading. FED Tarullo Speech Highlights - "the conditions for destructive runs that threaten financial stability could exist even where no institutions that might be perceived as too-big-to-fail are immediately involved" FED Bullard Speech Highlights - Bullard: An unemployment rate around 4.7%, gross domestic product growth of 2% and the Fed' preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, at 2%. - "If there are no major shocks to the economy, this situation could be sustained over a forecasting horizon of two and a half years" - "we have no reason to forecast a recession given the current state of the US economy"
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
SELL EURUSD/ LONG USD, DXY: HAWKISH FED GEORGE SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSIMO FOMC George was largely bullish/ Hawkish $ on the margin; surprisingly coming out and stating for one of the first times that "Fed rates are too low" and "Not Raising Rates in June Was Due to Timing Issues" - these two statements imo hint that a hike coUuld be on the cards earlier than perhaps was expected (Dec), in-light of his opinion of them being too low and that the missed June hike was merely due "timing issues".. could these timing issue be corrected in July? Unlikely given the Brexit result (likely if the vote was bremain), but nonetheless this was more than encouraging. On the wider economy George remained upbeat, highlighting last weeks NFP report as "welcomed news", and in the medium term reaffirming that "pace of job market growth has been notable" and "economy nearing full employment. The only downers were his comments regarding business investment which he said was "weak" but after went on to assure that "outside of energy, business investment levels were better". Further, he cited that brexit issues were "longer run" uncertainties that the FOMC will watch. Federal Funds Rate Implied Hike/ Cut Probability curve updates: On the back of the strong 100k+ beat NFP print last week, going into this week we have seen an aggressive steepening in the Fed Funds implied prob curve across the tenors; Fridays steepening trend has continued into this week, where now a September/ Nov Hike trades at 12%/11.8% vs 5.9%/5.9% on Friday and 0%/0% on Thursday, with a Dec hike trading at 29.6% vs 22.5% Friday. - This aggressive steepening, especially in the front end (where probabilities have doubled), is likely a function of FOMC member Georges Hawkish comments today, the NFP print and the aggressive recovery in risk across the board in the past few days which have all collectively improved confidence, which in turn has eased sell-side pressure on UST rates - today 10y UST rates have managed to trade 4.4% higher on the day (tnx), with 30y yields also up +0.95% - this is the first real break of downside pressure we have seen in rates for the past month. Trading strategy: 1. The above combined has helped my broad long $ view with my favourite expressions short term being in NZD$ and AUD$ downside (See attached posts). In the medium term, EUR$ and $JPY dollar upside are my favourite trades for the risk-on element that will readjust the USD higher in the backend of this year (see attached posts); And the Monetary policy divergence + brexit uncertainty that should bring EUR$ to a lower equilibrium in the future also. Alternatively, this view can be aggregated as pictured into a long DXY play, where imo, it trades 3-4% below equilibrium - index should be near 100. FOMC Member George Speech Highlights : -Fed's George: June Jobs Data Was 'Welcome News' -Fed's George: U.S. Economy Has Proved 'Resilient' -Fed's George: Expects to See 'Fairly Steady Pace of Growth' -Fed's George: Consumers Strong, But Business Investment Weak -Fed's George: Outside of Energy, Business Investment Levels Better -Fed's George: Pace Of Job Market Growth Has Been Noteworthy -Fed's George: Economy Close to Full Employment -Fed's George: Labor Market Recovery Not Evenly Shared by Workers -Fed's George: Labor Pressured by Loss of Middle Skilled Jobs -Fed's George: Fed Policy Limited in Role For Long Term Labor Trends -Fed's George: Fed Rates Are 'Too Low' -Fed's George: Fed Should Raise Rates Gradually -Fed's George: Not Raising Rates in June Was Due to 'Timing Issues' -Fed's George: Brexit Issues Are Longer Run Items to Watch
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: TRADING STRATEGY - PART 2 Trading for this week: 1. My plan for next week focuses on point "3." from the previous post - I am waiting for risk-on or risk-off assets to confirm investor conviction by using USDJPY as a barometer for net risk sentiment. Despite the market uncertainty and high volatility UJ last week traded within a 200pip range for the between 101.3-103.3. Therefore, I consider a 60pip break of either level to confirm the conviction to a sentiment e.g. 60pips higher is risk-on (Yen selling), 60pips Lower is risk-off (Yen buying). So of the two possibilities for this week (based on the previous post) Most likely i think is: 1) Global risk continues its recovery as I ask myself what possible risks/ events are there that could tip risk-off sentiment? My answer is none. However, there are several arguments for a risk-on bias e.g. 1) Central bank easing continues to offer risk higher e.g. a dovish RBA (5th) and BOE meeting (14th) price JPY lower and UJ higher 2) Implied vol continues dropping below realised vol, aiding bullish sentiment. 3) Brexit uncertainty continues its de-risking/ pricing as its unlikelihood increases. Further, I think Equities have another week of rallying to price before earnings uncertainty selling will become a factor. Trading Strategy: If Yen carries on Ranging I advise buying UJ at lows of the range e.g. between 101.3-101.9 - or you could buy at any price in the range as I have a target of 106 in the near-term and 110+ in the next 4+wks. Alternatively, I advise placing BUY STOP orders at 103.9-104.2 (level that confirms a risk-on breakout) as there will be 80% of UJ short Stop-Losses at this level, so we will likely see a short squeeze take us 200pips up instantly once UJ trades to at or about 104. I like owning UJ structurally in the medium term as even if UJ falls lower in the near term which is unlikely (what risk is likely to drive it lower?) as UJ trading at or below 101 (and the further it falls) the more likely the BOJ will be to launch emergency FX intervention and/or near term lower UJ increases odds of an aggressive BOJ cut at its July 28th meeting - which will make UJ trade 500pips+ higher, dependent on the measures/ aggressiveness taken. For some background/ support for the UJ higher trade 1. based on BOJ easing, recently JPY retail sales disappointed at -1.9% vs -1.6%, as did inflation which was seen at -0.4% nationally for CPI and Core and -0.5% for the same in Tokyo + BOJ's own Core measure continued its strong MoM downtrend at 0.8% (from 0.9% last) - consistently unresponsive inflation is the single biggest driver for BOJ easing/ cutting policy, and the poor inflation has been problematic since the last cut in January 2016 so this gives further weight to another cut, especially since it was 6+ months ago. - Also BOJ Kuroda and JPY Govt Aso and Abe had several emergency meetings last week as a result of the Brexit vote/ JPY appreciation, in which they discussed FX levels, although taking no action, such rhetoric and actions imply and give likelihood that the BOJ will take substantial action in July. - Technically, UJ has been oversold for several weeks, even if UJ higher isnt structurally long, we should at least be able to realise a 600-800pip recovery rally before moving lower again. Volatility - USDJPY Realised Volatility is trading higher than implied (bullish signal) with 2wk and 1mth at 19.64% & 15.6% vs implied's trading at 11.25% & 13.43% + there are some large notional OTM call strikes at 104.2 and 105, indicating the market may have a bullish bias. Also, the UJ 1wk/1m 25 Delta Risk Reversals Trade at apprx -1.6%, and falling, indicating the market is becoming more bullish by 1) being positioned long in the spot market but buying less downside option coverage and/or 2) Speculative Demand for UJ downside puts is falling. *Read my previous post "RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: IS THIS GLOBAL RISK RECOVERY REAL? PART 1" for analysis of last week and mo
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: IS THIS GLOBAL RISK RECOVERY REAL? PART 1Expectations vs Reality: 1. Following the referendum decision on Friday, as expected GBP sold off 10%+, the FTSE plummeted in a similar fashion and global risk assets sold off across the board, but FTSE/ Risk recovered a significant amount of those losses into Fridays close and for the rest of the next week.. So what happened to BREXIT? - Such behaviour would lead you to believe that the Brexit decision was all just a bad dream, with much of the price action volatility confined to Friday alone - rather where I had expected the decision on Friday to start a cascade of risk-on asset selling, as the brexit backdrop provides the perfect impetus to trigger the risk-off fear for the wider global risks e.g. US Election, Global growth, China Debt - and, ofc, the Brexit Macro economic spill-over itself. Why did we witness this Risk Recovery Paradox? 1. I think the main reason that risk managed to avoid carrying its bid bias into this week from Friday was PM David Cameron's decision early on Friday/ Monday to 1) Resign in October and 2) Refuse to sign the Article 50 which formally/ actually starts the Brexit Negotiations - the net effect is that brexit risks have been shifted into 2017 (or never) rather than present, thus providing investor confidence to buy risk at its Friday discount (why not) and take bets on a Brexit no show (illustrated by a buoyed GBP which imo should have fallen more). - What this combination of events now means is that Brexit now trades as a function of Political possibility rather than as a certainty because 1) By resigning in Oct and refusing to start the negotiations now, it means that Brexit itself is put on hold until at least October. Further, the fact that the above is the case, the whole "Brexit" likelihood is brought into question in itself as 1) How likely is the new PM in Oct going to sign the article 50 as soon as they get into office? I think VERY unlikely, its career suicide to start such a volatile process immediately when in office so that means the Brexit Negotiations are pushed further out and likely into 2017 (66.66% chance it occurs in 2017 now from odds-checker). 2) Will Brexit go ahead at all? I think Brexit absolutely is unlikely, as the new PM wont want the economic and political uncertainty that will follow - especially as the vote didnt happen under their leadership - imo its more likely that the new PM will forgo the blame onto Previous PM Cameron and/ or call for a re-referendum or scrap the idea completely and instead offer a solution to solve the "leave" voters problems e.g. Bid to fix EU immigration. 2. Worldwide Central Banks supportive/ Dovish statements - All Major CB have offered their support if their economy calls for it as a result of Brexit - namely the front-end of the FOMC's rate hike curve was severely flattened (Dec or 2017 hike now likely) and the BOE Gov Carney put 250bn in QE and 25bps of Int rate cuts on the cards - the net effect of these actions has been to smooth investor fear, and allow risk to rally, as low rates and QE has no doubt been the biggest driver for stocks in the last 8 years - the FTSE's recovery was/ is 100% underpinned by the BOE stance imo. 3. And the most interesting possibility is that - Investors don't believe in this risk-rally, instead it is just a micro unfolding that will eventually unravel, forcing risk to sell-off in the near future. And by looking at the stability of Gold, Bonds and Yen, this argument does carry alot of weight and is something ive been watching all week. All risk-off assets have traded flat/ higher, despite risk rallying - when risk-on and risk-off assets FAIL to maintain their negative correlation (as they are failing to do now, and are actually slightly positively correlated as they both rise) it usually means the rally is being undermined by a longer-term macro view - since liquidity is a 0 sum game in the long run, all assets cant grow at the same time, either risk must sell-off or
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
BREXIT AND GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: BUY USDJPY - HOW TO TRADENow that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the market hunted for risk off. Further, as with GBP it seems entities over the weekend have increased their JPY exposure to account for the increased percieved risk within the market causing UJ to open lower at 101.6 - However, over the weekend the BOJ had a meeting with other Japanese officials to discuss their plan (an easing plan likely) to combat 1. their inflation problem and now 2. the JPY's safe haven demand strength - both of which are cured by 8/10 aggressive easing policies by the BOJ - Thus I expect the BOJ to hold and emergency meeting this week announcing these changes to have immediate affect as UJ at 100 severely puts the brakes on their inflation growth target. - Further, as previously mentioned the BOE, SNB, FOMC and ECB (among others) have all said since the brexit vote that they are prepared to provide liquidity to markets and their rhetoric has been very dovish. - Thus the BOJ's new easing package which is likely to be aggressive e.g. 20bps rate cute and a large increase QE, will help depreciate the currency through increasing supply and reducing jpy demand. Further, the supportive/ dovish stance of the worlds central banks (particularly BOE and FOMC) will help ease risk aversion which in turn SHOULD reduce JPY demand therefore helping UJ trade better to the upside. So my trading plan for UJ is to buy at levels <102 - 101/2 is ideal (we are unlikely see 99 or 100 again as the risk-off impetuses have died). UJ should hold this range between 101.2 and 103 until CB meetings are in place - I will be holding UJ in the long term through to 110-115 at least. I have 8/10 long conviction for UJ Volatility update: Current UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade at 37.5%, which is surprisingly 3-4x higher than it was last week (the risk and volatility may not be over). 1wk UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade at 20%, significantly lower than current at 37.5% - I think this is a function of the central bank meetings expected this week which are inflating current volatility, with 1wk far vols lower as the events will have elapsed already. 1m UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade up on the week at 15.5% though the time curve is flattening meaning UJ vol is falling over time - lower vols = better conditions for UJ buying. Current UJ Option demand is skewed significantly to the downside, with Puts 40% vs calls 36% thus puts are in demand by about 10% more than calls - this supports nearterm risk-off views (RR -4). USDJPY as a measure of market risk. I still suggest using UJ as a measure of GBPUSD market risk - the volatility seemingly isnt over, and with near term uncertainty high, it is prudent to track UJ and use breaks of its 101.2-103.2 range as signals of net risk on or risk-off commitment .e.g. UJ higher risk on (jpy selling), UJ lower risk off (jp buying). The risk off move for GU imo is lower in this environment, and the risk-on move is higher. Thus, IMO UJ and GU are sync'd, and the two should be used as a tool.
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
LONG USDJPY @105.8: NEUTRAL FOMC; DOVISH & EASE BOJ & RISK-ONWe had the best possible outcome for FOMC's Rate decision and Fed Yellens speech which was neutral IMO as expected, with the Economic Projections being dovish, downgrading the projected rate hike cycle. We now look to BOJ. Trading strategy: LONG USDJPY (possibly short also GBPJPY for longer term investors or investors that want to hedge against a hawkish BOJ) TP @>107 = 100pips at least - SL @104.9-105.2 Reasoning - FOMC overall was neutral, we had lower projections but Yellen remained mildly upbeat, telling the market to shrug off the short NFP report (quite rightly). - So this means $ demand/ supply remains flat. - The main driver of the LONG UJ play is on the JPY side. Given that FOMC was flat, this means JPY "risk-off" and uncertainty buying which would have arisen if the fed was aggressively hawkish/ hiked was neutralised - meaning JPY "rate hike induced" safe haven demand was neutralised as instead the FOMC helped risk trade higher = LONG USDJPY as JPY demand falls - So now we have a situation of neutral USD and neutral JPY as there was no rate hike to unsteady markets and cause JPY to be brought - So the driver of the LONG USDJPY is the fact that IMO the BOJ will be aggressively dovish and likely to cut rates - their core and CPI prints are consistantly below 0% at -0.5% for Tokyo CPI and Core, with National at -0.3% for both. These CPI prints are the average print for the last 6 months meaning BOJ policy has been inefective in reaching their goal as inflation is stale and not rising. Thus IMO they have to CUT and EASE and be DOVISH = Long USDJPY - Further, Kuroda BOJ head said he is aware of JPY trading strongly due to its safe haven properties and he has stated he is prepared to fight this risk-off led Yen appreciation - this means HEAVY easing to negate the JPY risk-off strength and weaken the currency = long USDJPY - Finally, a dovish BOJ helps ease the risk-off sentiment in the market at the moment (stocks falling and gold rallying) as BOJ easing puts more liquidity into the markets - calming the risk-off sentiment means LESS JPY buying and MORE JPY selling = LONG USDJPY Evaluation - So with USD as a stable denominator, I expect the BOJ to heavily ease in order to 1) improve their inflation performance closer to their target 2) to devalue JPY from the risk-off buying that brexit uncertainty has caused. - Further, UJ is the best expression of the short JPY play as EUR and GBP are both comprimised by BREXIT uncertainty - which is constantly trying to trade eur and gbp lower - hence a long ej or gj is not advised - UJ is the least affected of the majors by brexit - *see my dynamic straddle post attached for more details* - on that note one may argue AUD or NZD could be used for the long, since they too are even less affected by brexit downside, which is true, however i dont have enough experience in those markets - if think there is a better denominator than USD for the long then by all means use it - however IMO USD is the best of the bunch for future dollar demand as they are the only Central bank to be hiking NZD and AUD are still cutting. - Also UJ imp volatility is finally falling with 1wk implieds dropping to 12.55 (-3.45), which improves the environment for buying. Plus as you can see below Historical Vol is also falling, once again illustrating that price may be ready to start rising again - low vol = more buying. Plus the ATR trades lower than average which is a bullish sign - bull markets range less. - And we are still oversold massively at -2/3 SD of the mean of the weekly. Plus we trade close to the handle at 105.35 which is the strongest support level in USDJPY history thus helping upside from here (unless we break ofc). Comments welcome
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
8
DYNAMIC STRADDLE: USDJPY & GBPJPY - TP FROM BOJ & FOMC EVENT VOLThe best Idea to play BOJ and FOMC from a risk-averse perspective is to own both in a Long Straddle Strategy Dynamic Straddle: Long USDJPY & Short GBPJPY - TP from volatility & Event likely hoods TP levels = cannot be greedy else you may miss one trades exit point so <25 pips when it goes in your direction for each - total TP = 50pips as 2*25pips Reasoning - Traditional Straddle involves would be long and short the SAME cross.. - However i suggest we long USDJPY as UJ has proportionately MORE upside possibility: 1. FOMC is likely to be neutral-Hawkish, this will help UJ trade flat/ higher = Supports long - - *FOMC PARADOX* important to note that in this sensitive risk-off market if the FED is too hawkish/ hikes it can cause a UJ sell off, as higher rates means greater economic/ market uncertainty as liquidity and financing becomes tighter (despite rate hiking usually making USD trade higher through increased $ deposit demand for higher rates) 2. BOJ is likely to be dovish, this will help UJ to trade higher (especially in this risk averse market - easing helps calm mrkts) = supports long 3. USDJPY ISNT directly impacted by BREXIT fears as GBPJPY as USD and JPY can be considered safety assets, this helps USDJPY trade higher = supports long So we have 3/3 for long USDJPY. - Now to hedge this trade AND benefit from possible downside, we SHORT GBPJPY as GJ has proportionately MORE downside possibility. 1. FOMC neutral-hawkish, drives risk-off momentum (higher rates reduces market liquidity and undermines economic growth thus increasing uncertainty) which drives demand for Yen/JPY, increased demand for JPY supports short GBPJPY 2. BOJ being dovish/ easing potentially helps JPY sell off - however, GBPJPY will be the least sensitive of JPY seller of the JPY crosses, as GBPJPY is the perfect play for Brexit and risk-off, hence in the long run JPY selling wont last long in GBPJPY as once JPY is cheap, buyers will enter to continue hedging/ speculating on brexit with the favourite pair, poor potential/ long run JPY sell side = supports gbpjpy short 3. GBPJPY is directly impacted by Brexit uncertainty in two ways. 1) as investors wish to sell GBP as the uncertainty is only negative for GBP (especially when polls are at 55%). 2) as Investors wish to buy JPY for their "safe haven" asset play. UJ only has the JPY buying to push it lower, which is limited/ offset further as USD buying can also be considered a "safe haven asset) = Supports short GBPJPY We have 3/3 for short GBPJPY Evaluation. - We have 3 points supporting both LONG UJ and SHORT GJ - AND by playing this trade we are able to gain from ALL eventualities, we dont have to guess the BOJ or FOMC outcomes since we have a LONG and a SHORT we have covered ALL eventualities. - Also from a vol perspective, GBPJPY risk reversals continue to become negative by a significant amount 1wks lost 0.6 to -2.1 (from -1.5), so investors continue to demand GBPJPY downside puts for speculation/ hedging - supporting the short. - USDJPY ATM volatility, sold off significantly with 1wks losing 3.55 to 12.45 - lower vol in UJ supports buying. *Any questions on why i think FOMC will be neutral-Hawkish or why BOJ will be dovish-easing please ask in the comments*
by QuantumLogicTrading
BUY USDJPY: SUP LEVEL @105.5 & VOLATILITY SELL-OFF @ HIGH LEVELSBUY USDJPY @106.5 or @107.0 - SL @105 - TP @109-11 based on: $YEN's historical most important support level - The 105.5 Key level will more than likely hold as it has many times before - At 105.5 there are 3 significant UNSUCCESSFUL tests of the level over the last 3 years thus it is a great entry point. Also another plus is if you look at the monthly chart you will notice 105.5 is the 2nd most important level in $Yen's 20y+ history, the 1st most important/tested is the 101 level. - Further, over the last 3 years the level has been tested 4 times in total and it only broke once when USDJPY rose to 127 so that means LONG at this level has a 75% chance of success (based on the simple discrete math). - Plus, around 105.5 at 106 and 106.5 these also provide "mini" strong support levels which i think are great, low risk entry points for long positions. Normal Distribution and High Price Standard Deviation Volatility - as you can see the weekly bar has closed below the 5 year -3SD (and -2SD 2.5year) once before, by the red bar 5 weeks ago which was also at the 105.5 support level- at which point USDJPY0.02% rallied back up to 111.5 from 105.5 after closing below the -3SD and -2SD line and on the 105.5 so we could see topside like this again. - in addition to this, it is worth noting that the 5y -3SD blue line that was violated but rejected 5 weeks ago and is being tested again, based on normal distribution theory, says that prices touching this line have a 99.5% probability of reverting BACK UP towards the mean at 122.5. The -2SD 2.5year line that was also violated has a 95% probability of retracing up towards the mean at 126. Historical and implied volatility at all time highs - a reversal - Historical volatility across the board (5,10,20,30,60) is trading at all time high levels now and at some point these levels have to come down, investors cant keep pushing vols higher, which in turn, means selling of UJ must come to an end soon and we should see an upward recovery run. - The same is true about Implied vols which are trading at 15.75% which is in the (upper) 90th percentile of the last 2.5 years of days, meaning implied vols 90% of the time have been lower than this - thus a reversal is more likely at these levels. HV is likely in the 90%tile or greater also - Usually a sell-off in volatility precedes buying of UJ. - See more info on vols here: www.tradingfloor.com Downside analysis 1. The obvious risk of the Long UJ play are that the 105.5 level doesn't hold, in which case i believe the long squeeze caused, as a result of all long SLs being hit causing a cascade of selling could take us down to 102/3 - however this is easily avoided by keeping tight stops at 104.5-`105 dependent on your risk appetite. - even with a 150pip SL it still returns us 3x returns with a TP target of 111+ 2. The markets may trade risk off in the coming weeks as the macroeconomic envrionment is filled with uncertainty e.g. FOMC, BOJ and UK EU Referendum, in which these events are compounded by the fact that risk markets (spx etc) are currently trading at all time highs, making a reversal in their direction and risk-off tone more likely. Furthermore other risk-off assets such as Gold and Bonds are trading well. All of which may combine into a strong risk off environment that fuels the JPY follow the bullish trend with its counterparts (bonds and gold) and enabling UJ to push past the 105 strong hold. - However, these issues are all displaced by a tight SL as advised at 104.9 (to benefit from the 105 key lvl supporrt potential)
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
4