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Loonie

USDCAD Targeting A Test of 1.3330Technical & Trade View USDCAD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 136.50 Technicals Primary resistance is at 1.3600/50 Primary pattern objective is 1.3330 Acceptance below 1.3460 next pattern confirmation Acceptance 1.3660 opens a test of 1.3710 20 Day VWAP bearish , 5 Day VWAP bullish Notes US CPI released today, volatility expected around the print Goldman Sachs expects ‘a below-consensus 0.44% increase in core CPI in October (vs. 0.5% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 6.46% (vs. 6.5% consensus). We expect moderate increases in both food and energy prices to raise headline CPI by 0.49% (vs. 0.6% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 7.8% (vs. 7.9% consensus)' Going forward Goldman 'expect monthly core CPI inflation to remain in the 0.3-0.4% range for the next couple of months before edging down to 0.2-0.3% next year. We forecast year-over-year core CPI inflation of 6.2% in December 2022, 3.3% in December 2023, and 2.7% in December 2024. The deceleration we expect in 2023 is driven more by goods than services categories' According to Scotia Bank 'positioning (among speculative, leveraged accounts and real money investors) could help propel the CAD higher. Combined CFTC positioning data shows a relatively large net CAD short has been maintained among these market participants in recent weeks and the CAD’s rebound risks forcing these accounts to cover, adding further fuel to the CAD rebound’
Short
by Tickmill
2
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Head and shoulders top on USDCADTrade Idea: Selling USDCAD Reasoning: Head and shoulders top on USDCAD Entry Level: 1.3520 Take Profit Level: 1.3010 Stop Loss: 1.3575 Risk/Reward: 9.19:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
USD/CAD -8/11/2022-• USD/CAD risks of suffering severe losses if the 1.35 support breaks • Head and Shoulders bearish pattern in play, with neckline support at 1.35, where bears and bulls are fighting now • A confirmed and successful break of the mentioned level exposes the pair for a projected target around 1.31 (range between neckline and head) • Typically, a head and shoulders pattern's right shoulder is found to have lower peak than the left one, a condition fulfilled here • Trading recommendations: Sell at current level with stop loss above recent highs or 1.355-1.36 with TP at 1.31 --- Risk reward: 4:1
Short
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
BUY THE DIP: Inflation Month Is Back. USDCAD Likely To Rise!As the eye can see, DXY is consolidating against all major currency pairs. Meaning its likely taking a slight breathing room before the major uptrend resumes. With the major CPI report due this week, all the eyes would be without a doubt on the numbers that would print. Anyhow there are two likely scenarios here that might take place and how it would affect the DXY: SCENARIO 1: CPI PRINTED AS EXPECTED If the CPI is printed as expected or slightly lower, it means that the FED'S weapon to lower the inflation is working slowly slowly however the numbers would still be considerably high near 8% YOY which is way way above FED'S target. This would mean that the FED might continue to raise rates to lower the inflation but not that aggressively. Meaning the DXY would still be more attractive compared to other currency long term. So its still bullish SCENARIO 2: CPI PRINTED HIGHER THAN EXPECTED If the CPI prints a lot higher than expected lets say it becomes 8.3% or higher, then we could practically assume that the FED'S tool is not working and they would likely take a more aggressive stance . The market's reaction at this point of time would be to BUY the DXY which would make the DXY appreciate. Of the above two scenarios, number 1 seems to be more likely and practical. Shall scenario 1 take place, we can expect the DXY to consolidate and give us a buying opportunity at a good price. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON USDCAD LONG TRADE Here we have USDCAD weekly chart, we can likely expect this pair to retrace lower which would give us an ideal entry before the major uptrend resumes. Kindly for the technical analysis have a look at the main chart. Trade Safely & Cautiously
Long
by FX618Analysis
USD/CAD near-term top in place?USD/CAD appears to have completed a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) top. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downturn. The broadly anti-USD response to October's #NFP report may have triggered a breakdown through the H&S pattern's neckline. The measured-move downside objective implied by the setup calls for a test of the 1.30 figure. Clearing resistance at 1.3877 and reclaiming a foothold above the 1.40 figure would probably neutralize selling pressure.
Short
by IlyaSpivak
1
USDCAD H4: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 1.3800On the H4 time frame, prices are facing bearish pressure from the resistance zone at 1.3800 which coincides with the graphical resistance zone, descending channel’s resistance and Fibonacci confluence levels. A pullback to the 1.3800 resistance zone presents an opportunity to play the drop to the support target at 1.3585, in line with the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Prices are holding below the Ichimoku cloud as well, supporting the bearish bias.
Long
by T3-Consultancy
1
USDCAD pullback brewing ahead?USDCAD looks like it may be gearing up for a pullback from resistance below 1.39. The rally from mid-August appears to have run out of momentum after testing an inflection zone that has acted as both support and resistance since May 2017. Negative RSI divergence highlights ebbing bullish vigor. A pullback from here sees initial supports at the 1.36 and 1.35 figures. A break below the latter threshold may open the door for a slide to test resistance-turned-support at 1.3224.
Short
by IlyaSpivak
USDCAD: DXY Likely To Consolidate Before Major Uptrend Resumes!DXY is Bullish on long term, however after another upwards impulse it looks like time for consolidation has likely arrived. Here we focus on the USDCAD 4H chart, where the price seems to be loosing momentum as evident by the RSI & naked eye. The key here is to of course as always wait for the support break and then only go SHORT provided the price retraces to offer us at least 1:1 RR. Have a look at the chart for full details on this potential trading opportunity. Keep in mind, this is just a potential short consolidation move, after which the uptrend might resume as the DXY is expected to gather strength. Trade Safely & Cautiously. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
USDCAD strong impulse towards my target at 1.385I have been interested in USDCAD for a while, if you check my previous ideas of the past 5, 2 are about this pair. *** Technical analysis *** The momentum (finally) got pretty strong. The price is now quite extended, the RSI on the weekly chart is in the process of crossing 70 and it rarely goes further than 80 and the price is far away from its moving averages. The move up might be soon over, maybe there are just 1 to 3 weeks left, but until then we can squeeze some profit from this pair before finally looking elsewhere. On the 4 hour chart you can see the Guppy Moving Averages have crossed and the fast ones are supporting the price, quite perfectly I might add: On the daily chart we can see we are currently in an extended 3rd Elliott Wave. My target will be the next serious resistance at about 1.385, which also happens to be close to the 1.618 extension from wave (1). But since the momentum is so strong feel free to hold as long as the price is going up, it could go a bit past target, think of a really big truck going full speed towards a tree, it will stop but not immediately. A bit past target you got 1.618 at 1.388 so that might be where the price is going. On the 1 hour chart the trend is rather. Where to buy? I can't tell. Any strategy will do I guess? But close to some sort of support on the daily chart is probably a safer bet than just at random. It is getting stronger and stronger, so waiting for a big pullback will probably get you in when the reversal happens. What my opinion is other than where to buy: target is at least 1.385 (possibly a bit more), no point going for a huge risk to reward (something around 4 seems to make sense to me). *** Fundamental analysis *** Canada economic data is overall negative and significantly worse than what was expected (consensus): - Bad job numbers => The latest unemployement rate release, which came out the 9 september, shows unemployement at 5.4%. previous number was 4.9% and consensus was this announcement would be 5%. - Bad retail sales => The lastest numbers are from friday (23/09) and they are absolutely terrible. Yes this is a high impact thing, according to sites that offer an economic data/calendar service. The numbers, which are for July, show a 2.5% drop, versus the last ones at +1% and consensus at -2%. - Bad oil prices => And what else happened on this friday, other than the bad retail sales announcement? The Oil price slipped almost 4% (WTI) or 2% (Brent) below the recent previous low. Oil prices are not as good as they used to be these past months, so another reason for the loonie to suffer. Meanwhile, the US Dollar can't stop getting love: - Oh the S&P 500 is down so everyone buys the USD. And when it goes up they buy the USD anyway. High inflation, low inflation, does not matter. No matter what USD gets 1 free bonus point, it's like an rpg, USD has a special skill "+1 for free". +1, just because. It does not fight fair. - Same interest rate as CAD => 3.25%. +0. - Retail sales are alright, pretty decent and a positive surprise => (For August) 0.3% versus last month -0.4% and consensus at 0%. So the USD gets +1. - Unemployement is not as terrible as Canada's => Unemployement rate for August was announced at 3.7% versus last month 3.5% and consensus 3.5%. Jobless claims are also alright, the latest numbers (for September 9, released the 22) are 213K versus 218K consensus and the previous ones (from most recent to oldest): 208K, 218K, 228K, 237K; it's in a downtrend and this 213K probably gets a revision to the downside like the previous ones had. Another +1 for the USD. They are plenty of other numbers but I believe these are the main ones, and anyway the other numbers tell the same story: CAD bad, USD good. I would jump on any opportunity to buy. *** Learning from previous trades *** Now is a good time to look back on my previous ideas and maybe learn something 1- The one that turned out great: Entry DOES matter. If you just were patient, waited and held, it went all the way to target. The price made an ABC and went from the bottom of my arrow to the top of my arrow. Just beautiful. It was easy to get 5R here. 2- The one that turned out terrible: Oh the running gag again. This is my flaw. I keep holding and I keep messing up. I do not know why I keep insisting and throwing my profit in the fire. I'm good at entries, really good at placing my stops, exceptional at targets; but I have no clue how to trail... be it on the way to target or past target. After years of messing up I'm just going for some basic higher low trailing system on the way to target, and once at target I should have very weak hands, basically unless it explodes I should get out, price dropped 0.25R? I'm out. One of the reason I do not want to use a limit order is since I am aware my targets are absolutely amazing (and I even improved them further recently) I am worried my brokers will notice and "steal" it from me. My targets are the single reason why I went all in trading and have a 3 year gap in my CV. And I'm ruining it with my idiotic "Uhh strong hands! Just hold! To the moon!" Do not be like me, do not be a fool. We aren't Warren Buffett. These are not companies we are investing into. Seriously? What is wrong with me? Autism? How do I break such a money wasting silly habit? Punch myself each time 250 euros of unrealized profit disappear? Ah, clic play and look at this depressing disaster. And I have been doing this noob garbage for years, since I started 5 years ago. I am so dense:
Long
by MrRenev
3
Strength To Strength DXY: Loonie Set To Depreciate Further With another crucial resistance broken at 1.37200, the Loonie seems to be on a gradual path to depreciation against the greenback. With FED aggressively raising rates to tame inflation, we can expect the DXY to get stronger and stronger near-term. No different analysis applies to USDCAD, as the Loonie is likely set to depreciate both technically and fundamentally against the USD. Looking at the technical picture, the crucial resistance at 1.37200 was breached as the weekly candle closed above it convincingly. With this having taken place, the next resistance that is upcoming is present at 1.40500. For complete information on the levels, have a look at the main chart for in-depth observation. Trade Safe & Cautiously. Cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
Canadian Dollar at Risk as USD/CAD Attempts Uptrend ResumptionThe Canadian Dollar may be vulnerable to the US Dollar with USD/CAD attempting to resume the broader uptrend. USD/CAD is attempting to confirm a breakout above the June 26th, 2020 high at 1.3716. Still, prices need to clear the September 2022 high at 1.3833 to open the door to extend gains. Keep a close eye on RSI, negative divergence is present. This is a sign of fading upside momentum which can at times precede a turn lower. Such an outcome could open the door to testing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The latter may reinstate the dominant upside focus. But, the line is currently sitting at 1.3350. With that in mind, be mindful of near-term downside potential before the broader uptrend could resume. FX_IDC:USDCAD
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
1
USDCAD in front of highAfter the rapid rise of recent weeks, should be at 1.395 end for now. Looking at the sub-waves of the last movement, today's high could also have already ended the wave. For reasons of clarity, I have not drawn these with. There are two options afterwards; either the pair rushes massively into the depths towards 1.12 or we only see a correction into the area of 1.344 to form a high at 1.541 afterwards. Looking at the pair itself, I would prefer the path towards 1.12, from here it could even go further down, but looking at the dollar strength and taking into account the targets in the other pairs, the scenario presented here as ALT should come to pass.
Short
by Elliott-Waves-2_0
EURCAD Short Trade SetupA bearish opportunity recently presented itself on the euro-loonie trading chart. This follows from the bearish harami candlestick pattern which printed just below the 1.33000 psychological level, indicating a rejection of the level. A stop loss above the 1.34000 psychological level and a profit target anywhere between your entry and the swing low of 1.28777 could give you a reward-to-risk ratio as high as 3 or even higher. Be sure to size your position based on your trading account balance and apply other risk management measures before placing trades. FX:EURCAD Rooting for you! Your FX Plug
Short
by charles-okoukoni
NZDCAD Long Trade SetupA bullish opportunity recently presented itself on the kiwi-loonie trading chart. This follows from the bullish engulfing candlestick pattern which printed just above the 0.79100 psychological level. A stop loss below the 0.79000 psychological level and a profit target anywhere between your entry and the swing high of 0.82534 could give you a reward-to-risk ratio as high as 7 or even higher. Be sure to size your position based on your trading account balance and apply other risk management measures before placing trades. FX:NZDCAD Rooting for you! Your FX Plug
Long
by charles-okoukoni
USD/CAD BREAKDOWNBased on price action (formation of double top) , market structure and fundamental analysis (The recent hike in Canadian Interest rates) the OANDA:USDCAD looks ready for a bearish dive. There are areas in the market that have clear imbalance which will act as targets for short positions. This levels are labeled and will act as our targets for long term short on this pair. Be advised to always use proper money management when trading. Best of luck as you look out for entry on this pair.
by GeminiWealthGroup