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Loonie

Canadian Dollar at Risk as USD/CAD Attempts Uptrend ResumptionThe Canadian Dollar may be vulnerable to the US Dollar with USD/CAD attempting to resume the broader uptrend. USD/CAD is attempting to confirm a breakout above the June 26th, 2020 high at 1.3716. Still, prices need to clear the September 2022 high at 1.3833 to open the door to extend gains. Keep a close eye on RSI, negative divergence is present. This is a sign of fading upside momentum which can at times precede a turn lower. Such an outcome could open the door to testing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The latter may reinstate the dominant upside focus. But, the line is currently sitting at 1.3350. With that in mind, be mindful of near-term downside potential before the broader uptrend could resume. FX_IDC:USDCAD
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
1
USDCAD in front of highAfter the rapid rise of recent weeks, should be at 1.395 end for now. Looking at the sub-waves of the last movement, today's high could also have already ended the wave. For reasons of clarity, I have not drawn these with. There are two options afterwards; either the pair rushes massively into the depths towards 1.12 or we only see a correction into the area of 1.344 to form a high at 1.541 afterwards. Looking at the pair itself, I would prefer the path towards 1.12, from here it could even go further down, but looking at the dollar strength and taking into account the targets in the other pairs, the scenario presented here as ALT should come to pass.
Short
by Elliott-Waves-2_0
EURCAD Short Trade SetupA bearish opportunity recently presented itself on the euro-loonie trading chart. This follows from the bearish harami candlestick pattern which printed just below the 1.33000 psychological level, indicating a rejection of the level. A stop loss above the 1.34000 psychological level and a profit target anywhere between your entry and the swing low of 1.28777 could give you a reward-to-risk ratio as high as 3 or even higher. Be sure to size your position based on your trading account balance and apply other risk management measures before placing trades. FX:EURCAD Rooting for you! Your FX Plug
Short
by charles-okoukoni
NZDCAD Long Trade SetupA bullish opportunity recently presented itself on the kiwi-loonie trading chart. This follows from the bullish engulfing candlestick pattern which printed just above the 0.79100 psychological level. A stop loss below the 0.79000 psychological level and a profit target anywhere between your entry and the swing high of 0.82534 could give you a reward-to-risk ratio as high as 7 or even higher. Be sure to size your position based on your trading account balance and apply other risk management measures before placing trades. FX:NZDCAD Rooting for you! Your FX Plug
Long
by charles-okoukoni
USD/CAD BREAKDOWNBased on price action (formation of double top) , market structure and fundamental analysis (The recent hike in Canadian Interest rates) the OANDA:USDCAD looks ready for a bearish dive. There are areas in the market that have clear imbalance which will act as targets for short positions. This levels are labeled and will act as our targets for long term short on this pair. Be advised to always use proper money management when trading. Best of luck as you look out for entry on this pair.
by GeminiWealthGroup
USDCAD short 1.297* retestTechnicals show on the 1HR/ 4HR/ daily TF that USDCAD is at a makeshift resistance. Loonie needs to correct itself at 1.2975 levels if not an impulse dip to 1.292 to shake out retail buyers who were late to the party. WTI oil has also seen a support at $87 and is now looking to test the $97 resistance sector. (currently $91) DXY is in no-mans land with the FED + turmoil within the US economy. DXY is also looking for a mini rollover. I am taking a 1:5 RISK:REWARD trade Entry: 1.30267 SL: 1.30450 TP:1.29250 (we could stop at 1.297* very well)
Short
by chestephens1
Can Ninja Bulls Over Power The Loonie? (CAD/JPY)Ninja Bulls Are Fighting hard (CAD/JPY) The Yen has been fighting against the Cad to push the price down, At this point, there are multiple confluences that are in line with shorts. Price, 1stly, has rejected a higher time frame resistance, it then goes ahead and breaks out of a wedge and now comes back to retest the level at 105.00. We see that on the retracement, the price pushes in a three-wave move to the upside before rejecting which creates a trendline for price to follow, The first sign that the bears will take over again is the break of the trend-line. The second sign is the Break back below 104.200 which gives us two shorting confluences. Once this happens I will look to take my position down to around 101.500. If the price breaks 101.500 then we are in a fully-fledged bear market, I will have to wait for price to provide a solid sell setup so it will depend on the strategy you use to enter trades. On the flip side, remember that price is still very bullish on the higher time frame and it could easily continue to break the resistance and push higher. With that being said it is extremely imperative that we wait for the price to break below 104.200 before we consider selling. Have a fantastic day Traders. Renaldo Philander.
Short
by Tradebudz
2
USDCAD Intraweek Technical AnalysisDollar gave a bullish closing against the loonie because of the surprising non farm payrolls. My idea for next week is that the USDCAD will test the support of 1.285 and 1.278. My idea is to go long from intraweek support levels. My target for coming week is 1.29 and 1.3 in coming week. If you like this or if you think the opposite of this or if there is any other opinion, mention it in the comments. I am open to all kind of suggestions and critics
ULong
by JBShark
USDCAD analysis: Will bears step up?USD/CAD fundamental analysis A tight labour market with unemployment at historic lows that continues to boost consumption, support from interest rates (with a very hawkish Bank of Canada), and, finally, the persistently high energy prices of oil and gas, which act as a tailwind for the Canadian economy, all contribute to the Canadian dollar’s solid fundamentals. The Bank of Canada surprised markets by raising its benchmark rate by a full percentage point in July ( CAINTR ), signaling further tightening to control inflation. As a result, the Fed-BoC monetary policy divergences have narrowed significantly, as evidenced by the short-term (2-year) rate differential between US and Canadian Treasuries, which is now very close to parity (only 9 basis points). A more hawkish Fed is clearly a risk factor, but the Canadian dollar appears to be better protected now thanks to an equally hawkish BoC. Annual inflation in Canada ( CAIRYY ) reached a new 39-year high in June (8.1 percent year on year), but fell short of market expectations (8.4 percent), while producer inflation ( CAPPIYY ) fell for the third month in a row. In contrast to the United States, which unexpectedly entered a technical recession in the second quarter of the year, the Canadian economy grew by 1.1% in Q2, according to preliminary estimates, with broad-based expansion in 14 of 20 economic sectors. Regarding the growth outlook, the global and US economic slowdown is starting to weigh on the Canadian economy. In July, the S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.5 from 54.6, marking the sector’s slowest growth since June 2020. The Canadian dollar has historically weakened in times of global economic slowdown, but this time appears to be holding up well also thanks to the support of WTI ( OIL_CRUDE )and natural gas sticky-high prices. OPEC+ has announced one of the smallest production increases (100,000 b/d since September) in its history, which is equal to 1/1000 of the world’s demand. This means that the crude oil market will continue to be very tight in the coming months and that oil price will remain well sustained, despite the demand of large oil consumers is expected to slowdown. This may continue to represent a tailwind for the Loonie's strength. USD/CAD technical analysis Technically, USD/CAD ) has been trading in a tight, choppy range between 1.278 and 1.294 for the past three weeks. Despite the fact that the USD/CAD ascending channel has been in place for more than a year now, indicating that the major trend still remains bullish, the short-term momentum is gradually shifting in favour of the Canadian dollar. The RSI has been below 50 since July 18, while the MACD fell below the zero line. In the short term, the 1.278 support level (61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the USD/CAD rally in June/July) represents an important test. If USD/CAD breaks down here and then at the 200-day moving average at 1,273, it could fall to 1.266 (78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement). Alternately, 1.295 (50 percent Fibonacci retracement) could act as a potential resistance test. A breakout to the upside would pave the way for a spike to 1.305 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and then 1.322 yearly highs. However, in order to regain 1.32 levels, a combination of Fed hawkish and BoC dovish shifts as well as indications of a significant slowdown in oil demand will be required. Analysis written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
USDCAD 2nd AUGUST 2022“Loonie” is one of the most liquid pairs in the forex market. This is because this currency pair represents the two largest and most stable economies in the world. The economic environment in Canada is similar to that of the United States. Both countries have a long history as trading partners and both countries have high per capita incomes. There are still several important US economic data releases and events that will stoke volatility in USD-pairs. August 2, the June US JOLTs report is due at 14 GMT , at which time Chicago Fed President Evans will give remarks. August 3, weekly US mortgage application figures will be published at 11 GMT . The July US ISM non-manufacturing (services) PMI will come out at 14 GMT, as will June US factory orders. Weekly US energy inventories data will be released at 14:30 GMT. August 4, weekly US jobless claims are due at 12:30 GMT . Cleveland Fed President Mester will give a speech at 16 GMT. August 5, the July US nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate will be published at 12:30 GMT . The June US consumer credit report will be published at 19 GMT.
by DNP-FX
6
USDCAD Long Trade IdeaThere's been a long trade opportunity on the dollar-loonie trading chart, following the fake breakout of the price below the 1.28194 horizontal support level. This signals a buy because of the bullish harami candlestick pattern; with the bullish candle closing above the same support level. You can enter the trade around the 1.28294 price level and set your stop below the fakeout candles. Your profit target can be anywhere between your entry price and the 1.32000 psychological level. Have fun trading!
Long
by charles-okoukoni
USDCAD approaching short term supportUSDCAD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.2950 (stop at 1.2890) Previous support located at 1.2950. Previous resistance located at 1.3000. A lower correction is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 1.3000 will confirm the bullish momentum. Our profit targets will be 1.3100 and 1.3125 Resistance: 1.3000 / 1.3100 / 1.3125 Support: 1.2950 / 1.2900 / 1.2850 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Long
by OANDA
USDCAD Likely To Consolidate Before Major Uptrend Resumes!Loonie might likely consolidate this week as the prices would likely try to aim for the rising trendline. After the BOC raised the rates by 100bps, the consolidation scenario seems likely before the major uptrend resumes. Technically, looking at the main chart the price failed to breach the 1.30700 level and created multiple wicks signaling rejection. For the short trade criteria to be met, it would be wise to await the daily candle breach and close below 1.28200 support/ demand zone. After confirming the break the ideal target would be the rising trendline. Just to note that this scenario is a counter trend move, once the prices hit the rising trendline, the major uptrend might likely resume. Have a look at the main chart and observe the technical analysis and also related link section.
Short
by FX618Analysis