Loonie
Can Ninja Bulls Over Power The Loonie? (CAD/JPY)Ninja Bulls Are Fighting hard (CAD/JPY)
The Yen has been fighting against the Cad to push the price down, At this point, there are multiple confluences that are in line with shorts. Price, 1stly, has rejected a higher time frame resistance, it then goes ahead and breaks out of a wedge and now comes back to retest the level at 105.00. We see that on the retracement, the price pushes in a three-wave move to the upside before rejecting which creates a trendline for price to follow, The first sign that the bears will take over again is the break of the trend-line. The second sign is the Break back below 104.200 which gives us two shorting confluences.
Once this happens I will look to take my position down to around 101.500. If the price breaks 101.500 then we are in a fully-fledged bear market, I will have to wait for price to provide a solid sell setup so it will depend on the strategy you use to enter trades. On the flip side, remember that price is still very bullish on the higher time frame and it could easily continue to break the resistance and push higher. With that being said it is extremely imperative that we wait for the price to break below 104.200 before we consider selling.
Have a fantastic day Traders.
Renaldo Philander.
USDCAD Intraweek Technical AnalysisDollar gave a bullish closing against the loonie because of the surprising non farm payrolls. My idea for next week is that the USDCAD will test the support of 1.285 and 1.278. My idea is to go long from intraweek support levels. My target for coming week is 1.29 and 1.3 in coming week.
If you like this or if you think the opposite of this or if there is any other opinion, mention it in the comments. I am open to all kind of suggestions and critics
USDCAD analysis: Will bears step up?USD/CAD fundamental analysis
A tight labour market with unemployment at historic lows that continues to boost consumption, support from interest rates (with a very hawkish Bank of Canada), and, finally, the persistently high energy prices of oil and gas, which act as a tailwind for the Canadian economy, all contribute to the Canadian dollar’s solid fundamentals.
The Bank of Canada surprised markets by raising its benchmark rate by a full percentage point in July ( CAINTR ), signaling further tightening to control inflation. As a result, the Fed-BoC monetary policy divergences have narrowed significantly, as evidenced by the short-term (2-year) rate differential between US and Canadian Treasuries, which is now very close to parity (only 9 basis points). A more hawkish Fed is clearly a risk factor, but the Canadian dollar appears to be better protected now thanks to an equally hawkish BoC.
Annual inflation in Canada ( CAIRYY ) reached a new 39-year high in June (8.1 percent year on year), but fell short of market expectations (8.4 percent), while producer inflation ( CAPPIYY ) fell for the third month in a row.
In contrast to the United States, which unexpectedly entered a technical recession in the second quarter of the year, the Canadian economy grew by 1.1% in Q2, according to preliminary estimates, with broad-based expansion in 14 of 20 economic sectors.
Regarding the growth outlook, the global and US economic slowdown is starting to weigh on the Canadian economy. In July, the S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.5 from 54.6, marking the sector’s slowest growth since June 2020.
The Canadian dollar has historically weakened in times of global economic slowdown, but this time appears to be holding up well also thanks to the support of WTI ( OIL_CRUDE )and natural gas sticky-high prices.
OPEC+ has announced one of the smallest production increases (100,000 b/d since September) in its history, which is equal to 1/1000 of the world’s demand. This means that the crude oil market will continue to be very tight in the coming months and that oil price will remain well sustained, despite the demand of large oil consumers is expected to slowdown. This may continue to represent a tailwind for the Loonie's strength.
USD/CAD technical analysis
Technically, USD/CAD ) has been trading in a tight, choppy range between 1.278 and 1.294 for the past three weeks.
Despite the fact that the USD/CAD ascending channel has been in place for more than a year now, indicating that the major trend still remains bullish, the short-term momentum is gradually shifting in favour of the Canadian dollar.
The RSI has been below 50 since July 18, while the MACD fell below the zero line.
In the short term, the 1.278 support level (61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the USD/CAD rally in June/July) represents an important test. If USD/CAD breaks down here and then at the 200-day moving average at 1,273, it could fall to 1.266 (78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement).
Alternately, 1.295 (50 percent Fibonacci retracement) could act as a potential resistance test. A breakout to the upside would pave the way for a spike to 1.305 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and then 1.322 yearly highs. However, in order to regain 1.32 levels, a combination of Fed hawkish and BoC dovish shifts as well as indications of a significant slowdown in oil demand will be required.
Analysis written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
USDCAD 2nd AUGUST 2022“Loonie” is one of the most liquid pairs in the forex market. This is because this currency pair represents the two largest and most stable economies in the world. The economic environment in Canada is similar to that of the United States. Both countries have a long history as trading partners and both countries have high per capita incomes.
There are still several important US economic data releases and events that will stoke volatility in USD-pairs.
August 2, the June US JOLTs report is due at 14 GMT , at which time Chicago Fed President Evans will give remarks.
August 3, weekly US mortgage application figures will be published at 11 GMT . The July US ISM non-manufacturing (services) PMI will come out at 14 GMT, as will June US factory orders. Weekly US energy inventories data will be released at 14:30 GMT.
August 4, weekly US jobless claims are due at 12:30 GMT . Cleveland Fed President Mester will give a speech at 16 GMT.
August 5, the July US nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate will be published at 12:30 GMT . The June US consumer credit report will be published at 19 GMT.
USDCAD Long Trade IdeaThere's been a long trade opportunity on the dollar-loonie trading chart, following the fake breakout of the price below the 1.28194 horizontal support level.
This signals a buy because of the bullish harami candlestick pattern; with the bullish candle closing above the same support level.
You can enter the trade around the 1.28294 price level and set your stop below the fakeout candles. Your profit target can be anywhere between your entry price and the 1.32000 psychological level.
Have fun trading!
USDCAD approaching short term supportUSDCAD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.2950 (stop at 1.2890)
Previous support located at 1.2950. Previous resistance located at 1.3000. A lower correction is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 1.3000 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 1.3100 and 1.3125
Resistance: 1.3000 / 1.3100 / 1.3125
Support: 1.2950 / 1.2900 / 1.2850
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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USDCAD Trade Idea! --- BullishLast weekly candle closed bullish on this USDCAD pair. We anticipate a fill on that weekly candle (wick) and potentially breaking above resistance 1.3075 key level. On this hourly chart, we see a bull flag forming which supports our bullish view.
~ Happy Trading folks!
Cheers!
USDCAD Likely To Consolidate Before Major Uptrend Resumes!Loonie might likely consolidate this week as the prices would likely try to aim for the rising trendline. After the BOC raised the rates by 100bps, the consolidation scenario seems likely before the major uptrend resumes.
Technically, looking at the main chart the price failed to breach the 1.30700 level and created multiple wicks signaling rejection. For the short trade criteria to be met, it would be wise to await the daily candle breach and close below 1.28200 support/ demand zone. After confirming the break the ideal target would be the rising trendline.
Just to note that this scenario is a counter trend move, once the prices hit the rising trendline, the major uptrend might likely resume. Have a look at the main chart and observe the technical analysis and also related link section.
CADCHF Long Trade OpportunityA 'buy' opportunity has just presented itself on the loonie-swissy trading chart. This is occasioned by the bullish harami candlestick pattern which closes just above the 0.74593 horizontal support level, which signals a fakeout and suggests an upward price movement.
You can still enter this trade by setting your stop slightly below the level mentioned earlier and placing your target anywhere between your entry price and the 0.78000 psychological level (ensuring a reward-to-risk ratio of at least 3.00).
Happy trading!
AUDCAD Short Trade OpportunityA 'sell' opportunity has just presented itself on the aussie-loonie trading chart. This is occasioned by the bearish harami candlestick pattern just below the 0.91276 horizontal resistance level, which signals a rejection of the same level and suggests a downward price movement.
You can still enter this trade by setting your stop slightly above the aforementioned level and placing your target anywhere between your entry price and the 0.89092 horizontal support level (ensuring a reward-to-risk ratio of at least 3.00).
Happy trading!
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Fading short term gains on AUDCADTrade Idea: Fading short term gains on AUDCAD
Reasoning: Rallied into downtrend resistance on the 60min chart
Entry Level: 0.9017
Take Profit Level: 0.8883
Stop Loss: 0.9052
Risk/Reward: 3.75:1
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CADJPY climbing towards historical resistanceThe Japanese yen's weakness is obvious across all its pairs, including against the Canadian dollar. The CADJPY has displayed a strong bullish uptrend after its breakout above the 92 price level, on a monthly time frame, and is now facing a historical resistance in which to overcome.
Looking at the CADJPY on the chart below, we can see that the price is currently at the supply area based on the Supply and Demand indicator and has a strong resistance at 103.381. Historically, the price has rejected at that price level and moved back lower to the decade-long demand zone at around 74.580.
Traders are on the lookout right now at this strong monthly supply zone as this could be a good opportunity to take an upside position for a breakout or take a sell to the downside if it rejects at the supply zone.
If an upside break does occur, will the CADJPY continue all the way to the next supply zone starting at 115.530? The possibility of this might be dependent on the fundamental factors, including whether Japanese authorities intervene in the currency market.
Fundamental note
The Bank of Japan has vowed to maintain its ultra accommodative policy, in stark contrast to the actions taken by other major central banks. As a result of bank’s inaction, it will be up to the Ministry of Finance to intervene in the currency market if the JPY continues its rapid depreciation.
EURCAD Long Trade IdeaA long trade opportunity has recently presented itself on the euro-loonie trading chart, occasioned by the bullish engulfing candlestick pattern just above the 1.33931 horizontal support level.
This shows a rejection of the same support level, with tendency for massive moves to the upside. There's been quite a move already but you can still enter the trade if you can afford a generous stop slightly below the aforementioned support level. Your targets could be anywhere between your entry price to slightly below the 1.38178 horizontal resistance price level.
Your FX Plug
USD/CAD -07/06/2022-• Pair is bullish as long as it is above the weekly ascending trend line labeled in orange
• Next target upside is at 1.2950 where price got rejected several times
• Will bulls get a successful breakout this time ?
• 2 scenario are presented in the chart above
• 1st scenario: bulls successfully break the 1.2950 level and continue pushing prices higher
• 2nd scenario: bulls fail again and prices start to fall after hitting 1.2950
• Bullish pattern on weekly chart: ascending triangle, which favors a bullish breakout past 1.2950 in the weeks ahead
USDCAD 6th JUNE 2022“Loonie” is one of the most liquid pairs in the forex market. This is because this currency pair represents the two largest and most stable economies in the world. The economic environment in Canada is similar to that of the United States. Both countries have a long history as trading partners and both countries have high per capita incomes.
The dynamics of oil supply and demand can have a big impact on the movement of the USDCAD currency pair. Generally, when US demand for Canadian oil rises, this increased demand can lead to higher oil prices, and a decline in the USDCAD exchange rate. when US demand for Canadian oil falls, this decline in demand can lead to lower oil prices, and the USDCAD exchange rate to rise.
USOIL ANALYSIS
1.30 rejectionThe loonie has rejected the major resistance of 1.30 and it looks ready for a bearish move.
On the weekly chart there's a shooting star candlestick with a rejection wick of approximately 170 pips. That is shown as a bearish engulfing on the daily timeframe.
I will personally look for a retest of 1.30 or a small retracement towards it before placing any sell position.
What's your opinion on the loonie?
USDCAD 30th MAY 2022USDCAD possibly will move in the falling wedge area. the price may be higher if it breakout of the resistance area.
GDP growth is noteworthy, analysts expect Canada's annualized GDP growth to fall from 6.7 to 5.4 If it actually occurs at 5.4 or lower, then USDCAD will be bullish.
Another data to note is the NFP which will be released this Friday.
By considering ISM Manufacturing and ADP data. We can predict NFP before NFP is released. From the two data can be considered using the formula:
(80% ISMM + 55% ADP) / 2 = Positive NFP Prediction
with ISMM & ADP input :
if data is positive = 100, if data is neutral = 50, if data is negative = 0
Here USDCAD Daily chart :
USDCAD: A Pullback Trading Setup-INTRODUCTION-
USDCAD is currently moving within a wide ascending channel. The price has recently reached a new high at the 1.3070 level. After reaching a new high, the price retraced, and now aims to retest the 1.2750 support level. This is a healthy pullback, as we can see from the past price action that after price has reached a new high, it tends to correct for a period of time but eventually will return to retest the recent high. Therefore, a deep pullback means a great risk to reward ratio trade can be entered to target the recent high.
-TRADING PLAN-
The price is currently approaching the 1.2750 support level. Our area of interest to enter buy positions is in between the 1.2650 ~ 1.2750 level. From this area, we expect the price to consolidate and form a kind of a pattern, and then rise to retest the previous high at the 1.3070 level. This could potentially be a good 300 ~ 400 pips swing buy trade.
We will update with a new post when a swing buy opportunity is created.
Check out our ongoing and previous pullback strategies below :)
Loonie Likely to Appreciate temporarily Vs The USDOn the 4H TF, the support & the trendline supporting the prices breached too. Now the price is likely headed to its next ideal support. The path to target seems to have no resistance present at the moment, so its likely that the price retraces slightly before heading south. Have a look at the main chart for complete information
USDCAD 16th MAY 2022Breakout and false breakout can happen due to fundamental factors that change every day, the main focus at this time for the USDCAD pair are the fed interest rate, oil prices, inflation , monetary and fiscal policies. Oil price rally makes correlation for Canadian Dollar.
This is USDCAD analysis on higher timeframe :
USDCAD D1 - 4th MAY 2022