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Loonie

USDCAD - Great R/R Trade idea!USDCAD - Technical Aspect: - Pattern: Rising Wedge - Fib Retracement: At 0.23 - Measured could reach the next Fib Retracement area of 100. - Support: 1.26805, 1.26690, 1.26360 - Resistance: 1.27145, 1.27315, 1.27600, 1.27910 (The target areas I will be approaching as time goes by - high lighted in Blue) The approach you could take towards this trade idea: Wait for the break out, go in at the pull back for great R/R Add orders Add alerts Adding further confluence check oil instruments As I always mention and I will repeat this 100 times because it's very important - Go with what's on your trade plan! The greatest potential trading gives us is the immense amount of creativity it gives us traders, the way we all trade is different and that's what makes you a great trader - allow yourself to have your own edge towards the market this is just an idea I give you, add your own analysis, your own opinion matters most it gives you confidence . I may not use lagging indicators but I know very successful institutional traders that do and they excel well because that's there edge . Do what suits you best! Making sure your strategy is successfully generating capital that's what matters. Key tip: Never copy ideas, you will always be one step behind. All the best, Trade Journal (Just a trade idea, not a recommendation).
by Trade_Journal
2
Bank of Canada to Cut Interest Rates Next Week?My readers and followers are up to date on the ongoing currency war. Central banks are attempting to weaken their currencies in order to boost inflation and exports. The export part is self explanatory and well known, but the inflation aspect involves the classical economics definition of inflation. Inflation is the weakening of a currency where it takes more of the weaker currency to buy something which gives the appearance of prices rising. It really is the currency that is weakening. Now the Bank of Canada is set to make its next move in the global currency war. Just a quick recap: central banks have three ways to weaken their currencies: 1.Rhetoric. This is the most common way central bankers weaken or strengthen a currency. Also why the press conferences are closely monitored by traders. Chairmen (and women) use diction and rhetoric as a way of telling market participants what they are planning on doing in the future. The market reacts and prices this in. The currency moves in the way the central bank wanted. 2. Interest Rate Cuts. This is the next step up using interest rate differentials to either strengthen or weaken the currency. 3. Quantitative Easing. The final and most extreme way to weaken the currency using supply and demand principles. Most central banks have exhausted 2 and 3. The European Central Bank is the one I have been following for awhile. The ECB is trying to weaken the Euro as the European Union is a heavy export union. The problem has been the US Dollar, the true winner of the currency war so far. Since the US Dollar is the reserve currency, if the US Dollar is dropping, the other currency is strengthening. This includes the Euro, the Pound, the Loonie, the Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi Dollar, the Yen etc. The ECB increased their emergency asset program up to 1.8 Trillion Euro's in December. The Euro popped. Now all the ECB has left is to cut rates deeper into the negative. Expect this to happen. "Money markets see an increased chance of the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates closer to zero, as tightening economic restrictions to contain a second wave of COVID-19 cases offset optimism that activity will rebound later this year. Interest rates were thought to have hit rock bottom in Canada after they were slashed 150 basis points last March to a record low of 0.25 per cent, a level the Bank of Canada considered the effective lower bound. But in November, Governor Tiff Macklem said a lower floor could allow Canada’s central bank to ease further if the economy weakens." After these statements, the expectations for Canada to cut rates next week has increased. But don't worry, it is not negative rates. Yet. The Bank of Canada is expected to do a microcut, or an interest rate cut less than 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada's rate currently is 0.25%, and expectations are rates to decrease to 0.10%. Microcuts have occurred already. "Other central banks have moved in small increments. In November, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its policy rate by 15 basis points to 0.1 per cent, while the Bank of England did the same last March." The Bank of England is now expecting to enter negative rates sometime before June of this year. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be next, and I am sure the Bank of Canada and then eventually the Federal Reserve will follow. All to attempt to weaken the currency, and why I have been saying the trade is out of fiat. Hard assets/commodities and cryptocurrencies are the way to play this going forward. Let's take a look at the USDCAD. The Loonie has been appreciating against the US Dollar as the Dollar (DXY) keeps sliding. You have seen in my previous posts, that I believe the DXY is at a MAJOR support zone and a relief rally is highly probable. Funnily enough, the USDCAD is also at a major support zone, and is looking like the Dollar will strengthen against the Loonie. On my chart, I have drawn a trendline which is a popular way to determine when a trend shift occurs. If price closes above the trendline, the Loonie will depreciate against the US Dollar. However, I am hoping we develop a right shoulder to create a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline being the zone above in blue at the 1.30 zone. This would imply price pops up, and then retraces before breaking and closing above. The interest rate cut could be the catalyst for the reversal pattern. This was expected. This is the currency war.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
1
USDCAD - PREDICTIONThe Loonie broke the weekly support and we saw a freefall below 1.30. Really cannot see the USDCAD breaking back above 1.30 now with the DXY crumbling and oil prices climbing. The only question is where the pullback ends. I've highlighted a 1hr zone of interest in yellow, where price stagnated creating a potential shelf for price to retest. However, should this break, we should see a retest of the weekly support turned resistance before a further impulse. Remember, even though we expect a slight push up, we trade with the trend!
Short
by RealistFX
USDCAD - Trade idea! 4HR USDCAD Technical Analysis - COUNTER TREND TRADE. Technical aspects: Pattern: Small descending channel smaller term , until it's broken Bullish flag Intra day could come into play if it breaks towards upside. Resistance: 1.31248, 1.31410, 1.31793, 1.32076 Support: 1.30639, 1.30367, 1.30048 If it breaks towards resistance area of 1.31248 I'd see the reaction of the pull back for further confirmation, would indicate a bullish flag formed and take it to the resistance zones. The way I trade I tend to scale out of my trades my main target areas are the resistance areas and last taking profit would be 0.382 Fib Retracement areas. Nice target area is that beautiful 200 EMA! Easy way to either add alert when it breaks or add an order. However, if we do pull back within the descending channel we are in the key support area is 1.30438 and that's key area of support! Whilst trading the Loonie I do take into mind WTI Crude and of course dollar index as well. The type of market we are in, most of my trades at this current moment of time are counter trend - which basically means I am going against the longer term trend. Which you must have a plan for, to build the right confidence you need in trading and journal it the types of trades as well is very important! It was a very quiet week last week, which I know for some traders I've spoken to that work even within larger institutions it has been frustrating for sure! However, the way I keep myself busy on a very quiet week we must remember to be disciplined and to not over trade, but doing this I do go onto very small time frames 10-15mins time frames and my trades will be not be a swing trade in a range bound choppy market I tend to have my trades closed by the end of the day not doing as many large targets I would do if it was a swing trending market but it isn't right now. Until we are still within these ranges, best to keep your targets small, keep to day trading until consolidation period is over and if you don't understand what the chart is indicating go to another pair currency or simply don't trade till you're comfortable to get back into the game. Usually, when I step away from the market, I don't step away and do something unproductive, I instead go for walk, exercise or I read and extend my knowledge further within the markets, there are plenty of very resourceful books based not just on markets, but on psychology aspects to help! For any further book recommendations, feel free to message or comment down below I'd be sure happy to help! Key tip: A large percentage of trading is psychology! Have trust in yourself and your trading plan. Have a great week ahead. All the best, Trade Journal (TJ)
by Trade_Journal
Loonie, The up move should start hereWe are expecting the up move and the previous trade also is in the play but nothing much happened since. So the forecast as has shown on the chart is the same, but in case of the price action breaking down the monthly line, the trade's stop loss will be triggered and the idea wouldn't be valid anymore. Watch the lower time frames to see the signs of the breakout. Happy Trading, Stay Green! ✌️ ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 💬 Please let me know your view about the idea 🔗 Check out the "Related ideas..." in the links below too Find us on social media 😉 ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
Long
by Forexian
USDCAD - WEEKLY PREDICTIONThe Loonie has been in a strong downtrend on the higher timeframes ever since the March crash. However, we're approaching key MAJOR support and this is where the higher timeframes will be key. We have weekly support but a weekly descending trendline. Which will break first? Only the market will tell us. What we're looking at here, is the Head and Shoulders on the Daily timeframe and looking for the break and retest of the neckline down to test out that weekly support. Any buys only work with a break above the 61.8% fib AND the weekly trendline, keeping our eyes on how price progresses and if it starts to wick back to entry towards the end of the week, we will close at breakeven for buys.
by RealistFX
Fractal failurePrice failed to complete a fractal on 2 weekly chart and is moving away from it. Things started to go wrong in July last year...something to do with Brexit and this "wrong bias" keeps going... We see accumulation above the failed fractal and price is likely to push higher making higher high. THIS IS NO TRADE SETUP BUT GENERAL OUTLOOK TO IDENTIFY LONG TERM BIAS. as many cant make sense of whats going on with this messy pair. Top Absolute Correlation 1 WEEK 1 EURGBP - GBPCHF -93.6% 2 EURGBP - EURCAD 90.3% 3 EURGBP - GBPSEK -88.5% 4 EURGBP - EURSGD 86.0% 5 EURGBP - XAUGBP 84.9% 6 EURGBP - CADCHF -83.9% 7 EURGBP - EURMXN 83.8% 8 EURGBP - CHFSGD 83.6% 9 EURGBP - NOKSEK -83.5% 10 EURGBP - USDRUB 82.4%
Long
by ICFX