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Loonie

LOONIE Looking To Hit 1.29000 Level. OIL The Main Driver!Oil is the main driver behind the CAD pairs and with the OIL market slowly recovering aided by the sanctions on Venezuela's OIL exports by the US and the cooperation among the OPEC AND NON-OPEC Producers. Many see the OIL market recovering in the near term and to further strengthen the technical picture, there is an already completed head and shoulders pattern on the US OIL chart. The greenback has started this year strongly but with FED pausing the rate hikes and thinking to start unwinding of their balance sheet later this year gives the USD modest strength to perform this year. However if compared to LOONIE, the greenback is not that strong based on fundamental picture for time-being. Looking at the main chart for the USDCAD pair, the weekly timeframe has confined the price to a long term trendline. Should the weekly trendline break together with weekly 50 EMA the price will likely be heading to test the lower trendline present at around 1.29000 level! Shall the criteria meet, i will update the trade details in a new thread. this just represents my analysis on this current pair. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
USDCADPrice broke through the 200 day EMA and is moving towards the higher part of the wedge pattern we see forming. The way price is forming around the corner of the triangle reminds a bit of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. For a bullish trade one should wait for a breakout of this pattern. In this case, the bullish movement would need to be strong and an entry around 1.3300 would be appropriate. You can also wait, see how strong the breakout is, and enter after the breakout and retest of the pattern. If price drops below 1.3200 or the 200EMA this trade would need to be closed as that could lead to a bearish decline. Especially if oil continues to climb.
Long
by YaroslavBirchenko
CAD faces downside risks ahead of dataBy Andria Pichidi - February 8, 2019 Canada’s job market is expected to show another modest increase to start the year, after the 78.4k surge in November gave way to a 7.8k rise in December. Canada employment should expand 10.0k in January. The unemployment rate on the other hand, is expected to nudge higher to 5.7% in January, from the 43-year low 5.6% in November and December. Earnings growth is expected to remain subdued, adding to the softening inflation backdrop, well below the 3.9% pace in May of 2018, at 0.4% m/m in January. The risk for today’s data is to the downside, as January’s data so far showed a constrained Canadian economy to begin 2019, based on consumer and factory sentiment. As the risk is for a negative print for total jobs to begin 2019, Canadian dollar could continue depreciated. USDCAD is up for a fifth consecutive day, today printing a 13-day high at 1.3328 , extending a recovery from last Friday’s 3-month low. The up phase has been concomitant with a down phased in oil prices, while sustained gains in crude prices are a boon to Canada’s terms of trade, and vice versa. Overall, USDCAD is strongly supported by 200-day SMA since April. Hence long term Support holds at 1.3126 (200-day SMA), while the 20-day SMA and PP of the day provide immediate Support levels at 1.3240 and 1.3275 respectively. Resistance holds at 1.3363-1.3375 area , presenting the area between the 50% retracement on the decline seen since 1.3660 high and January’s peak. In the scenario of disappointing jobs data today, the pair could seen reaching this area. Further gains, could lead to the 61.8% Fib. level at 1.3430 level. At this level we could face a correction lower. From the Market perspective, a damp jobs report could underpin expectations that the BoC is stuck on the sidelines until 2020. However, BoC’s view that the current (and Q4) slowing is temporary has been supported by the recent data, as opposed to the data showing a more pronounced slowing in growth than the Bank anticipated. Come join us today at HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Long
by HotForex
1
USD/CAD is an obvious sell...Right?? Longer term outlookFirst, my preferred time frame is NOT the weekly, as it takes a great deal of patience to stick with your trade plan. However, I deem it important to understand the larger picture for this pair. The bears have been on a tear this month and I expect that to continue, albeit temporarily. DO NOT lose sight of the bigger picture, this pair is still clearly on a monthly/weekly uptrend. Following three continuous weeks of rejection @ the 1.3350 zone (lower red), the highest probability move from the current price level is down. Once (if) price reaches the 1.228 demand zone (green), I expect a strong move up. However, if this level is clearly broken AND smashes through previous resistance levels (purple lines), this could signal a major trend reversal and monster move down. Keep in mind this a weekly chart ( I know, zzzzz) and may take 1-2 years to manifest. We have a busy week ahead for the USD on the fundamental front which leads me to an alternative third scenario - a sharp move up from current price levels on better than expected USD news. Although unlikely, it is still a real possibility. Powell's speech will be key here, as I believe dovish sentiment is already priced in. The Loonie has an uneventful week on the news front but a monthly GDP report on Thursday can provide some volatility and insight. One more thing, much has been made about oil's negative correlation with this pair. Now, I heed caution at putting too much weight on correlation but since September, the two pairs have been closely correlated negatively. WTI futures is on the cusp of breaking a major level with huge potential upside. In summary, the most likely move is down from current price levels. Therefore, I am bearish short-term. When and if price approaches the green demand zone, I expect a sizable move up in accordance with the longer term trend. If price breaches the green demand zone with conviction, be on the lookout for more downward pressure.
Short
by en1gm9t-c
H & S Pattern on Daily WTI US OIL Chart. Oil Rally Ahead ?We are already shorting the USDCAD that is driven mostly by the prices of OIL. the chart just confirms that US OIL is set make significant gains soon as the head and shoulders patterns is nearly set for completion. Should the pattern complete we can expect the USDCAD to fall as well to around 1.3000 level. Its a great opportunity to trade OIL at the moment however let the neckline break and the daily 50 EMA too and let the price retrace slightly before going LONG on this commodity. have a look at the related link to the trade and analysis behind the OIL related USDCAD Pair. cheers
TVC:USOILLong
by FX618Analysis
EURCAD Awaits Support Or Resistance Break. SHORT Trade FavorableCurrently trading southwards the EURCAD is trading between two crucial levels represented by the red horizontal lines in the main chart. At the Moment nothing can be said as to where the price could be headed next although trend continuation southwards is a more likely scenario. Price may either reach the crucial support of 1.5000 level and from there on it might break the support or bounce back up towards the nearby resistance that lies at 1.55000. If we are talking for the price to bounce off the 1.50000 level then its advisable for the clear reversal price action pattern to develop to confirm this up move. on the flip side if the support breaks then in this the same price action continuation scenario may be applied. This all a swing trade opportunity that needs patient as the price action will give clear pictures in the coming week. however for the day trading scenario have a look at the snapshot below It represents the daily charts of the EURCAD, where the price action has been supported by a rising trendline and should the trendline break it will most likely target the next trendline thats underneath the current one. However this is just a day trading opportunity and should the conditions meet i will post the entry and exit criteria in the new thread The above just represents my personal analysis on the pair. shall there be any signal in the near future i will post them in the new thread. cheers
by FX618Analysis