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Loonie

OPEC-JMMC Day: Oil and Loonie – Tentative moves?By Andria Pichidi - November 20, 2018 USDCAD and USOil, H4 and Daily USOil prices reached an overnight high of USD 57.44 per barrel. The 4-day run higher in Oil prices, after a period of sharp declines, has helped the Canadian Dollar find a toehold. The contract has been supported by talk of a proposed production cut into year-end by OPEC and Russia, which was the main drive of yesterday’s sharp move higher, ahead of the December 6 meeting to be held in Vienna. Bloomberg reported that Russia is in wait and see mode with regards to production cuts, quoting Russia energy minister Novak as saying producers need to “better understand both the current conditions and the winter outlook” before agreeing to cuts. WTI crude is softer today, with prices having fallen back to levels just under $57 per barrel, after a 4-day rebound phase. Meanwhile USDCAD has retreated around the day’s Pivot Point at 1.3170 after pegging a 3-session high at 1.3202 yesterday. This puts Friday’s 12-day low at 1.3126 back in the scopes. In the daily time frame, the cross has been seen moving within an ascending triangle since mid October, rebounding yesterday away from its lower trend line. As the price holds above the rising trend line, USDCAD remains in strong bullish sentiment in the medium picture. Only in case of a penetration along with the break of 20-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. level since October’s dip, would it find a Support level within 1 .3065-1.3078 area (38.2% Fib. level and 100-day SMA.) Currently however, the market seems to be in a bullish mode overall, given that USDCAD is still trading above all the daily SMAs and with momentum indicators holding in the positive area. RSI has flattened above neutral and MACD dropped slightly below the trigger line, but remains well above zero line. Hence despite the fact that in the long term bullish bias holds strongly, in the near future, some consolidation is possible based on the flat RSI and small decline in MACD but also on the fact that 100 and 50 day SMA have been flattened in the daily chart. Resistance to the upside is set at yesterday’s high at 1.3200. A jump above this resistance level could meet November’s high of 1.3263 . Further increases could move the price towards the 1.3300-1.3320 area. As CAD and Oil are vulnerable to the possible OPEC plans to cut production, any remarks today from officials attending the OPEC-JMMC meeting, will weigh on the two assets. Nevertheless, BoC Wilkins speaks later today as well. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Long
by HotForex
USD/CAD came to retest the newly formed resistanceUSD/CAD has developed a nice bearish momentum after breaking the 4h timeframe trendline (around 1.30000). We are also in a descending channel on daily timeframe so the overall bias on the Loonie is bearish. The price has made a huge drop all the way to the 1.2920 area where it has found support. With the move to the downside yestersterday we have also broken the support that was set in the 1.2955 area and the price has now came to retest it. This sell zone has confluence with 50.0% fib retracement from the move yesterday and also a bearish flag/wedge pattern. Happy trading everyone!
Short
by FXAN
[GBPCAD] BULLISH OUTLOOK HOLDS?GBPCAD, H4 UK August trade data revealed a bigger than expected deficit, of GBP 1.3 bln in the total trade figure, with the visible goods deficit coming in at GBP 11.2 bln. In the 3 months to August, the ex-inflation total trade deficit narrowed GBP 6.1 bln to GBP 0.8 bln, which was driven by both a narrowing in the goods deficit and an expansion in the services surplus. Meanwhile, UK August production data came in mixed today, with the broad industrial output headline slightly exceeding expectations with 0.2% m/m and 1.3% y/y growth while the narrower manufacturing production measure underwhelmed somewhat with an unexpected 0.2% m/m contraction. More timely September surveys, such as the PMI reports, have painted a relatively dimmer picture, with Brexit-related uncertainty taking a toll on confidence and crimping new investment. Even though the cloud of uncertainty over Brexit weighs on Sterling, today’s Brexit news boosted Sterling higher. A London Times article claimed that 30 Labour party MPs would reportedly back Prime Minister May’s Brexit plan at the last minute, if needed, to avoid a no-deal Brexit scenario, suggesting that there could be enough votes for the plan to pass a parliamentary vote, as this would offset Tory party rebels who are planning to vote against it. Cable managed to eke out a 2-week high at 1.3185, 15 pips below upwards handle as mentioned in yesterday's post. As the Pound remains on bid since the news release and in contrast with the mixed economic data front, most of the sterling crosses present the same performance. GBPCAD for example is currently retesting the immediate intraday Resistance level at 1.7060, which is just few pips below the 78.6% Fib level since the dive from 1.7200. The pair remains above 20- and 50-day SMA, for the fourth consecutive day. However, our focus turned on GBPCAD today, on the break of the 1.7038 level. Interestingly, this level coincides with the 2 consecutive upper fractals in the 4-hour chart but also with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level since July's decline from the 1.7771 high. This along with the fact that the pair moves within the upper Bollinger band pattern and 20-period SMA crossed above 200-period SMA, added further positive bias in the near future. Technically, the same bullish picture is seen in momentum indicators, as RSI just crossed 70 barrier, indicating that there is further space to the upside. MACD presents a positive to neutral picture as MACD lines are flattened within the positive area, something that implies short term consolidation or weak momentum. Based on the positive outlook that GBPCAD presents so far, further upside movement is anticipated, with next Resistance levels at the round 1.7100 and 1.7165 level (200-day SMA). Immediate Support holds at the confluence of the 20-period SMA and 61.8% Fib. level, at 1.6975. Medium term Support level is set at 1.6920-1.6930 area (200-period SMA and 2low fractals). In the alternative scenario that bears push GBPCAD lower, only a closing into the lower daily Bollinger Band pattern, below the 1.6950 level, could drive the price to the 1.6830 Support level reached on Friday. Such a break could confirm the possibility of significant losses and it will alert the retest of the 2-month triple bottom at 1.6595.  Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Long
by HotForex
USD/CAD - Ichimoku Long Trade SetupAfter a sizable drop USD/CAD is back near the top of the kumo. Tenken and Kijun have gone a little flat here meaning we've lost some momentum, but I am watching for a possible bullish breakout here this week. I would still like to see a bullish kumo twist complete to help confirm a buy entry as well as a move up above our previous resistance we've been seeing. We've got a good risk to reward here once we see those things happen. It may take another drop down to tenken sen or the kumo before that possible move up even happens, if it happens at all. If we fail to hold support or get the breakout we're looking for, this setup may become invalidated.
Long
by The808Trader
3
USDCAD - Potential Long Setup at MarketPrice has completed a 3-wave structure, and is now showing some minor bounce at the bottom of the channel. We are expecting price to make a new high should the rejection from this bottom holds true. Potentially a very good risk-reward trade setup. *Disclaimer - This analysis alone DOES NOT warrant a buy or sell trade immediately. Before you enter any trade in the financial market, it is very important that you have a proper trading plan and risk management approach. The sharing of this idea is neither necessarily indicative of nor a guarantee of future performance or success.
Long
by KarYong
Fibonacci Long For The USD/CADAs long as the current swing high (1.3226) remains the high-water mark of the current wave on the daily chart, then a buying opportunity may set up for later this week. Until Friday’s close, or until the current swing high is taken out, buy orders from just above the 38% retracement from 1.3097 are solid entry to the bull. Using a standard 1:1 risk vs reward and an initial stop loss at 1.3049, this trade produces 48 pips on a return to the current value area (1.3150).
Long
by FXLeaders
USD/CAD (Sept 2018) *The future is UP!This will be my views of USD/CAD (Sept 2018) Please make sure to read the "update" comment as there will be changes along the way. Cheers. S0nic Disclaimer: The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. We, Sonicr Mastery dot com is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Long
by SonicDeejay
5
GBPCAD Short Position High risk trade. Comments from Barnier yesterday confirmed that the EU were prepared to offer the UK a bespoke package to avoid a no deal Brexit. The rally brings GBPCAD straight back into the daily descending resistance line. We have a clear zone of sellers waiting to push price back to 1.6591 Following a break of this support, we could expect a leg lower to support at 1.6370 Technicals overrule the market but if Soft Brexit takes over the news networks, GBP may remain bullish.
Short
by HutsonBay