The beginning of a new uptrend? Hello Traders,
The previous week offered a decent intra-week opportunity for me to short oil for a 2 day hold on the short (covered on Friday at daily 200 MA).
Now on to longer time-frame opportunities with oil and oil related assets. Overlaid on the chart is an area chart of WTI Crude Oil (ticker: /CL). With the potential for further weakness in the black gold we can see the Canadian Dollar trade lower thus pushing USD/CAD above 1.3600 opening the way for the currency pair to trade back up to 1.400 - 1.4500 continuing the trend higher.
Keep an eye on crude breaking/bouncing on the ascending trend-line and daily 200 MA.
The trade:
No position until we get Daily close above 1.3600.
Upon a break I'm committing 1% risk to the position.
Stop placement will be determined upon a break above 1.3600.
Moving Averages:
We remain bullish on the bullish 10EMA/50MA crossover.
Trading well above Weekly 200 MA.
"A man does note have to marry one side of the market till death do them part." - Edwin Lefèvre
Monthly Bar Chart:
Daily Bar Chart:
Loonie
AUD/CAD possible double top - go shortLooks like a possible double top on the Ozzie vs Loonie. Price tested the initial close high at about 1.0065 twice. There is a strong bearish divergence on the RSI, so let's see if the bears can hold and drive the price lower.
Stop-loss at 1.0110 - this is 10 pips higher than the 1.0100 level.
First take profit level at 0.9850
Hoping for second take profit level at 0.9650
NZDCAD Bullish Flag confirm, waiting 4 correction to enter LONGNZD is in steady up-trend against loonie. Recently pair has drawn bullish flag and giving confirmation by taken out .9632 resistance. Next minor resistance is @ .9666. A corrective move may produce excellent buying opportunity from .9450 handle, Wait for a reversal signal before you enter LONG.
As I mentioned in recent published NZDUSD idea that kiwi and Aussie are performing relatively better against US$ from commodity currencies. Further USDCAD is expected to remain range bound as is Crude OIL. Utilizing this fundamental divergence in line with technical setup seems pretty lucrative.
Trade with Care...
USD/CAD - FALSE BREAK AND A DOUBLE BOTTOM TRIGGERED FX:USDCAD
After testing the the original breakout low at 1.3030 the rate turned around and rallied back inside the previously broken rising channel thus creating a small double bottom formation.
It has also broken the short term falling trendline resistance, therefore my immediate bias is now higher.
I will be waiting for a pullback towards the broken double bottom neckline at 1.3175 to confirm the channel support is holding once again to target a possible move towards the channel resistance around 1.3570.
A break back below the neckline would invalidate my immediate bullish bias, however, only a daily close below yesterday's lows would turn me bearish on the pair again.
USD/CAD - THE NEXT LEG LOWERFX:USDCAD
Last week the rate broke it's 7-month-long consolidation channel. I am now looking for a small retracement higher or a short term consolidation pattern break to enter new short positions.
The November and December highs at the top of the channel can now be looked at as a double top pattern, so my first target is going to be 1.2730 (the 100% breakout target), but my longer term goal is the 5-year-long rising trendline support in the 1.2400-1.2500 area.
A break back above the broken channel's support above 1.3300 would invalidate my immediate bearish bias on the pair.
USDCAD TEXTBOOK WXY-PATTERN SHOWS BIG FALL IS COMINGThe chart says it all. 5 Wave impuls lower was followed by an impressive 10 month long textbook WXY correction pattern that is currently coming to an end.
Wait for the market to form a Lower High maybe around 1.3400 and enter a sell targeting the 1.25 lows.
Dont rush the entry, wait for it to form some kind of topping pattern on the 4H chart for example.
Note: on the montly chart there is a textbook spinning top forming. This is a very bearish topping pattern.