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Loonie

A Turning Point for USDCAD?The recent risk rally has encouraged commodity currencies higher. As crude ignores the globalized downturn in economic output and ongoing "pump at all costs" mantra of producers, the Canadian dollar has hit a three-month high against the dollar. Crude aside, traders have also factored in the fact that the potential for a rate cut from the Bank of Canada had dropped from 60 to 32 percent. Nevertheless, on a macro-standpoint, the slowdown in both the US and Canadian economies will strengthen; and traders could ditch the loonie for the save-haven greenback. The recent strength in the CAD does allow a more balance, two-way market. We are likely to see the USDCAD continue trending lower until risk appetite wanes. Price action has broken the upward trend that has lasted since May 2015. Support at 1.34 will likely be challenged prior to testing the 200-day EMA. The 20-day EMA has bearishly crossed the 50- and about to cross the 72-day EMA. The only problem I see with the current down move is: volume is increasingly dropping off and the pair is no longer overbought on longer time frames. This could cause traders to re-enter longs if the risk environment wanes causing a move back to 1.3770. Sentiment around crude and equities will remain important. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
1
Look For A Solid EURCAD Short SetupLook for a short trade setup in EURCAD over the next two days, preferably on Feb 22nd around 13:00 GMT or Feb 23rd around 17:00 GMT. Price should stall out around the 50% Fibonacci retracement which coincides with the 3rd square root from the most recent low of 1.51402 set on Feb 18th. Should EURCAD run up to these levels it could stall out presenting a nice short opportunity around 1.55274. A stop of 231.0 Pips, the average true range, could be used as your stop, more aggressive traders may want to use a stop of 1.5x to 2x the average true range. After getting short look for a move back down to 1.53230 - 1.52600 area yielding a solid return. Here at Unique Forex we combine our team's 40+ years of trading experience with our proprietary algorithm to significantly enhance the trading experience. Utilizing the two, we are able to offer some of the most powerful research on an array of currency pairs. Here you will get all of our research on some of the more popular majors like the EURUSD, but if you would like to get access to the rest of our research head over to www.unique4xpro.com If you want to join our trading team check out www.unique4xpro.com Also follow us on all of our social media: Twitter @unique4x Snapchat @uniqueforex Instagram @uniqueforex Tune in to our daily live market insight @ 4:30 p.m. EST on Periscope and Meerkat both @unique4x
Short
by unique4x
9
EURCAD: Potential long term shortEURCAD is displaying a potential topping pattern at the top of the recent range, right against a long term mode, the price zone with the most activity in the chart since 1994. The previous reaction to such a strong historical resistance level was seen in the chart I posted before, where I reccomended buying against support for a potentially very large move to the upside (which resulted in a home run trade, with enough returns for a year). This is a terrific opportunity to get short the Euro, and long the Canadian, something which I think is perfectly aligned with the current fundamental landscape. I'll enter with 3 positions, and attempt to ride the downtrend all the way down, booking partial profits on short term selling opportunities, while keeping the core position running, and I'd reccomend you do the same. I favor an ATR based stop loss, against key levels. If interested in getting specific management cues and further add on opportunities, were this trend to reverse as depicted on my quarterly chart, contact me privately. See my profile for details. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
15
Expect Volatility In USDCAD As Oil Is The Big QuestionStrong volatility. • USD/CAD has been very volatile over the past few days. A bearish bias is still favored. Current price action is following old downtrend. Hourly support is located at 1.36392 (04/02/2016 low) and hourly resistance can be found at 1.3911 (16/02/2016 high). Expected to see further rebound. • In the longer term, the break of the key resistance at 1.3065 (13/03/2009 high) has indicated increasing buying pressures, which favours further medium-term strengthening. Strong resistance is given at 1.4948 (21/03/2003 high). Support can be found at 1.2832 (15/10/2015 low) then 1.1731 (06/01/2015 low). Here at Unique Forex we combine our team's 40+ years of trading experience with our proprietary algorithm to significantly enhance the trading experience. Utilizing the two, we are able to offer some of the most powerful research on an array of currency pairs. Here you will get all of our research on some of the more popular majors like the EURUSD, but if you would like to get access to the rest of our research head over to www.unique4xpro.com If you want to join our trading team check out www.unique4xpro.com Also follow us on all of our social media: Twitter @unique4x Snapchat @uniqueforex Instagram @uniqueforex Tune in to our daily live market insight @ 4:30 p.m. EST on Periscope and Meerkat both @unique4x
Short
by unique4x
USDCAD TTTIt's not over yet for the UC bulls. Fundamentally , market conditions have not changed too much despite the sell off in USD the last few weeks. Yes, data was disappointing, but in terms of U vs. C, these two items still remain: 1. Oil has yet to find a defined bottom. 2. Divergent policies banking between the USA and Canada. Though, I do believe we maybe reaching the tail end of this uptrend, there is nothing fundamentally significant so suggest that we will not see the peaks again nor surpass it. Technically speaking, moderate E. wave count suggests we are finishing wave 4 of a 5 wave impulsive. I was not sure how far we would fall in wave 4, but we have the following: 1. Ichimoku rejection 2. Fibo .382 rejection 3. Spinning top, RSI suggest majority of selling is complete Certainly, we may drop further, but I believe the price will maintain its long course through this pitchfork. Should the fork break convincingly, that will be the strong bear confirm. The ride back up will hopefully surpass peak 3. I do not believe it will hold at that price level for long, at which point begin looking for shorts.
Long
by Nantucket
Loonie TunesHope it drops sooner, this is just a simple clonage within this long term channel. Fundamental factors to consider, oil dropping further, BOC lowering interest rates this week, could wick out to 1.48. US bad data last minute revised GDP after market closed last Friday 1/15, if USD starts dropping this pair could just go sideways for a few weeks. The risk for loan defaults for the shale industry due to low oil prices are very high and has the Fed's attention, supposedly they have removed the mark to market rule for energy assets last Friday 1/15, allowing for these companies and banks to adjust their balance sheets accordingly so their borrowing bases do not cross below their existing debt. A similar situation occurred in 2008 onward with MBS, with the housing industry, allowing for home loans mark to market requirement to be removed, instantly making everything ok on paper (assets revalued back to date of origination instead of current market price) The point being, their could be a program similar to QE solving all of these energy companies, banks and sovereigns currencies problems with more money printing and purchasing oil futures and similar assets like energy stocks, such as the case with Mortgage Backed Securities Fed bailout. Not sure if the Fed's balance sheet could handle all of the new asset purchases, some member of the BIS network would be able to absorb the purchases on their balance sheet, maybe ECB, like a big QE rotation, or maybe they will just start a war, who knows. Oil needs to go back up or there will be a lot of problems. Not sure if the over supply could be bought up with policy moves, but who knows, just my loony tunes analysis :p
by brandonian