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The Disposition Effect in Team Investment Decisions█ The disposition effect in team investment decisions: Experimental evidence The disposition effect is a well-documented phenomenon in behavioral finance. Investors tend to sell winning investments too early and hold onto losing investments for too long. This behavior is primarily driven by emotional responses such as regret and joy. To delve deeper into this bias, a recent study compared the disposition effects in team investment decisions versus individual decisions. Here are the key takeaways, implications for traders, and how we can learn from these findings to improve investment strategies. Summary: Disposition Effect Overview: The disposition effect describes the tendency of investors to sell assets that have increased in value (winners) while holding onto assets that have decreased in value (losers). This behavior is influenced by emotional responses and is explained by theories like prospect theory and mental accounting. Team vs. Individual Investors: The study revealed that team investors exhibit stronger disposition effects compared to individual investors. Teams are more reluctant to realize losses and more prone to selling winners prematurely. This suggests that group dynamics can exacerbate these biases. Emotional Influence: Emotional responses, especially regret, play a crucial role in amplifying the disposition effect in team settings. Teams reported higher levels of regret and rejoice, indicating that group dynamics, such as groupthink and group polarization, heighten these emotions. █ Key Findings The results of this study provide compelling evidence about the impact of team dynamics on investment decisions, specifically regarding the disposition effect. ⚪ Increased Disposition Effect in Teams: One of the standout findings is that teams exhibited a significantly higher disposition effect than individual investors. Quantitatively, teams were found to sell winning stocks at a rate of 22%, compared to just 17% for individuals. Moreover, they held onto losing stocks with greater tenacity, only selling 13% of such positions compared to 17% for individual traders. ⚪ Reluctance to Realize Capital Losses: Teams' reluctance to realize capital losses suggests a heightened aversion to admitting mistakes or confronting poor outcomes when decisions are made collaboratively. This behavioral pattern could be attributed to a psychological mechanism called' loss aversion.' ⚪ Premature Sale of Winning Investments: Similarly, teams' tendency to sell winning investments prematurely can be linked to a desire to secure quick wins to validate group decisions. This behavior aligns with the concept of 'resulting,' where the outcome of a decision disproportionately influences one's perception of the decision's quality. The study suggests that psychological phenomena like group thinking and emotional amplification play significant roles in shaping team investment behaviors. These phenomena lead teams to minimize conflict and reach a consensus without critically evaluating alternative viewpoints. █ How Traders Can Benefit from This Knowledge Self-awareness and Training: Traders should be trained to recognize the disposition effect in their decision-making processes. By being aware of their tendencies to hold onto losers and sell winners prematurely, they can critically evaluate their decisions and strive for more rational outcomes. Implementation of Structured Decision-Making: Structured decision-making protocols can help traders, especially in team settings, mitigate the influence of emotions. Techniques such as pre-defined selling rules, automatic stop-loss orders, and regular portfolio reviews can reduce emotional biases. Use of Technology: Trading algorithms that follow strict rules for buying and selling can help traders avoid the disposition effect. Additionally, tools that prominently display purchase prices or highlight long-term performance trends can assist traders in making more rational decisions. Nudging Techniques: Implementing nudges such as automatic reminders about initial investment goals or highlighting long-term gains can counteract the immediate emotional responses driving the disposition effect. These nudges can encourage traders to make more balanced decisions. Group Dynamics Management: Teams should be aware of groupthink and group polarization and actively work to counteract these effects through diverse perspectives and critical evaluations. Regular debriefing sessions and third-party evaluations can help teams make more balanced decisions. Adopting these measures could help trading teams counteract the negative aspects of the disposition effect and enhance overall performance by fostering a more disciplined investment approach. █ Conclusions The disposition effect is a significant behavioral bias that can adversely affect investment performance. The study demonstrates that this effect is more pronounced in team settings due to amplified emotional responses. By understanding and addressing the emotional drivers behind the disposition effect, traders can develop strategies to mitigate its impact and improve their investment decisions. Structured decision-making, the use of technology, nudging techniques, and proper management of group dynamics are practical ways to combat the disposition effect in both individual and team settings. Embracing these strategies can lead to more rational and profitable investment practices. █ Reference Rau, H. A. (2015). The disposition effect in team investment decisions: Experimental evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 61, 272-282. doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.09.015 ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Zeiierman
📖Ultimate guide to feeling a little bit better after a loser.1The video is long, feel free to use speed settings :) Thanks for your interest in the last post about the Major mistakes traders do. Now let's talk about coping emotionally with losers. This is Part 1. 📖We all know this feeling, it feels awful, hopeless like something very valuable has been taken from us, like it destroys our work and plans and it feels BAD. Who am I to speak on this topic. 4 year of trading experience, lost maybe 25 funding challenges over the course of 3 years, got 2 times funded the previous year and lost these funded accounts. Had multiple losers, out of which many just stamped me emotionally. Over time I developed coping skills to better prepare for these -1’s and though I’m far from being really good at it, I’m definitely a bit better than I was some time before. And this is my ultimate guide to feeling a little bit better after a -1. 📖First of all, congrats - if you’re still here, it means you’re interested in the topic and by watching videos like these from me or other traders, and thinking, and trying to become better, you’ll do it eventually. Yes, with time you better find one source of education that really sticks to you, and for me, it’s the method.. but even other videos can build some foundation for your work in this direction. 📖As pointed out in the Mental Game of Trading, Our brain functions in 3 layers, so to say - automated habits, emotional brain, and rational. The thing is, emotions can really block rational thinking. It’s physical and happens in your brain. It literally changes our chemistry. Accept the fact we can't accept losers fully. It will always feel shite, but with time and a good strategy of preparation, it will get better. So this is a Stoic principle applied to trading, be prepared for the worst-case scenario, how? Expect it to happen, and know it’s inevitable and you’ll feel bad. Paradoxically, it allows you to feel a little bit better when it actually happens. 📖Notes and full diary, you want to know all about how you behave in the markets so that you recognize the build-up of emotions and can prepare better for the next inevitable loser, and in case you understand you need to stop because you’ll become too emotional - than you’ll be able to stop. How diaries work is that you know all your triggers, and patterns, in a way that nothing is new to you about how you feel about the market and how you react to certain situations. 📖Appreciate yourself and your work! gratitude - videos, practice, mooji. appreciate the work you did, especially if the loss comes out from a high-quality setup. Many people turn too much attentions to their flaws while forgetting recognizing their powerful sides. What’s your super power - holding to TP, sticking to max trades per day, not overrisking, really going through the checklist. 📖Awareness doesn’t equal control. You can control things only to some extent, but when emotions really kick in, it’s too late. That’s why people very often say: I understand everything, but I can’t stop. Yes, my friend this is how emotional brain works - it leaves with no control over the actions. Awareness doesn’t equal control. If you feel bad, you need to STOP, because in that state losers will feel especially bad. 📖Trade less, a lot less. Good traders and my experience. 📖Record a trade as a -1 in a journal once you started it - Ment’s video.
Education
by Yelli_trades
2
Let's Talk About Bad Luck and Downtimes In TradingAbout bad luck and downtimes in trading. Let's discuss the downtimes that traders may face. While everyone experiences them, some traders can maintain a calm mindset, while others may collapse under the pressure. What sets them apart? As I mentioned in my previous articles, trading involves risks, much like gambling. If you're seeking a risk-free investment, consider options like bonds or long-term investments. Even with a positive expected value, trading can encounter terrible consecutive losses. For instance, my index swing trading strategy has a win rate of around 40% and a profit-to-loss ratio of 5 or higher, which sounds promising. However, the reality is that consecutive wins and losses are inevitable. A 40% win rate implies the following chances: - Around an 8% chance of experiencing five consecutive losses. - Around a 5% chance of experiencing six consecutive losses. - Around a 3% chance of experiencing seven consecutive losses. - Around a 2% chance of experiencing eight consecutive losses. How many consecutive losses can you handle? Can you keep your emotions in check? Can you survive the phase of self-doubt and questioning the strategy's correctness? These are all crucial factors. The most critical aspect is always capital management, ensuring that you retain profits and avoid being eliminated by the market. When feeling down, it's essential to accept your emotions and not avoid them. Embrace yourself and the imperfections of your trading. Take a break and improve your mood. Only trade when you can maintain a rational mindset. Go for a walk, chat with your family and friends, enjoy good food, and appreciate the beauty of the world beyond trading. Although it's against human nature, keeping an open mind and discussing your loss situation with others can be helpful. This helps you face yourself honestly, rather than trading for self-esteem or self-display. Trading goals should focus on making money, self-realization, improving life, and helping those in need. Always remind yourself. Evaluate the feasibility of the strategy, the ability to withstand consecutive losses, and manage your money well. Be aware that downtimes may occur at any time, but long-term positive expected value trading will lead you in the right direction. I hope this article can be helpful to you. I'm trader Beta, and you can also find me if you need a psychological coach. Wish you all the best of Luck while trading.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by Eleta1228
NZDCHF Setting Up For Another Sell-OffOn the daily timeframe NZDCHF has been decreasing. We can see a clear lower low and lower high. I'm interested in this setup because. I just lost a 4 hour trade which means price is retracing. If price continues to retrace and can stay below 0.58632, I'll be looking for a sell. What can invalidate this trade? 1. If price does not come back to my estimation zone I will not be triggered into the trade which means price is still moving down. 2. If I am triggered into the trade and price passes 0.58632, I'll be stopped out of the HTF trade. This means price can potentially go higher and I must readjust. Am I ok with the invalidations? Yes. they are what keep protect me from overtrading and tell me how I should adapt. How am I managing the trade? This setup is a 2.24 risk to reward setup. This means whatever my position size is I will gain double and more on the trade. I don't risk more than 1% on an trade. So if I were to risk 1% my reward will be 2.24%. I risked 0.50% my reward will be 1.12% Whatever I risk is my loss and I am ok with what that is. My goal is to lose what I risk or lose no money at all by setting break even points if price moves in profit. I do believe it's important to set all parameters before entering trades. My belief: I deserve to sleep peaceful at night while my trades run. Well, this is my analysis after losing my first trade. I'm excited to keep this journey going. Safe trading. Be blessed. Shaquan
Short
by ShaquanLopez
1
Investing in exercise bicycles...?People can say Peleton is sooo much more than an exercise bike. I don't disagree, however, it's core business and most valuable product is it's bike. Sure, subscriptions and add-ons bring in lots of cash, but you won't get any of that subscription money if your target market is as small as this one's is. I say that because you have to be financially in a decent position in life to even afford a service like Peleton, and I just don't buy into the idea that Amazon or Apple or some big tech will come along and eat this company. I think they have a better ability to scale the bikes and services making PTON a buyout in my opinion. Who says the acquiring tech company won't pay them $5/share? Buyer's beware.
NASDAQ:PTON
by DontSlamTheDoor
Why Most Traders Lose Money - Here Are The Top 3 ReasonsAnyone that has been around the markets and trading for any period of time has probably heard that most traders lose money. In fact, there’s actually an old trading adage that says: 90% of new traders will lose 90% of their account within 90 days. So after reading that, before you reach for your broker’s phone number to wire out all of your money… how about I let you in on a little secret: If you follow some simple rules and avoid these 3 mistakes, you can be in that minority of traders that actually make money consistently in the markets. And if you are currently making one or all of the mistakes, I’ll also show you exactly how to fix it. So let’s dive in! 1) Most Traders Enter A Trade Too Late The first thing on my top 3 reasons why traders lose money is: Most traders get into trades WAY too late! There are a lot of reasons this happens, but most commonly it’s because new traders are basically gambling. They’re buying stocks or options based on news, or a hot stock tip, which really isn’t what I would consider a strategy. So let me give you a great example with a company I’m sure you’ve heard of: Uber Technologies (Yes, enemy #1 for taxi drivers worldwide.) Last year Uber, known for its popular ride-sharing and food delivery services, IPO’d in May (2019). With the disruption this company caused, their IPO had a lot of hype surrounding it, bringing a lot of investors to the table. On the day of their IPO, UBER opened at $42/share and people poured into the stock. For a few weeks, the stock had a turbulent, roller coaster of a ride all the way to as high as $47.08/share, a little over a 13% increase since its IPO. And around this new high, more and more inexperienced retail traders piled in thinking that it would continue its bullish run with dollar signs in their eyes. The mainstream media was continuing to hype it and more and more and investors and traders gobbled up more of the stock. Looking at the image below, you’ll see after that high of $47 things got UGLY fast, with UBER falling day-after-day, week-after-week. It wasn’t until November of 2019, about 7 months after their IPO that UBER found a temporary bottom at $25.58, down more than 45% from its high of $47.08… and I would bet there were a LOT of people who bought near or at the highs and were still holding at that point. So what did retailer traders do when UBER made a bottom? Yes, once again most (losing) retail traders didn’t get in at, or even around the bottom… once again, they piled as UBER neared its previous highs. And as you’ll see yet again, UBER rolled over on its way to making another new all-time low this past March 2020 going all the way down to $13.71/share. That’s more than a 70% decrease from its ATH and yes, I’m sure some investors rode it all the way to the bottom. Now I want to share a second example with you, so let’s take a look at Amazon (AMZN). So as you know, AMZN is a HOT STOCK, and last year it has a crazy move where it crossed $2000/share…. and yes, just like our example with UBER, inexperienced retail traders piled in at the very top. Once again, in the weeks that followed, AMZN’s stock tanked leaving those who’d piled in dazed and confused, now holding onto sizable losses. So as you can see, the first of my top 3 reasons most traders are losing money is simply because they’re piling in way too late in a stock’s move, generally near a high. Now on to reason number 2: 2) Most Traders EXIT Too Late Yes, as you can imagine if people are getting in too late, well, they’re also typically getting out too late as well. So let’s talk about why this happens. Why do retail traders tend to hold onto trades way too long, either turning a small loss into a BIG loss or sometimes even more painful, turning a winner into a loser? Let’s take a look at another example with an UBER competitor, LYFT . Like UBER, LYFT also had its IPO in 2019, opening up at $87.24/share… but that didn’t last long. In less than two months, LYFT went as low as $47.17… and what do you think those who bought during the IPO are saying right about now: “Oh, I’m holding it because IT WILL TURN AROUND!” This is generally where I see traders get religious 😉 Instead of ‘taking their medicine’ and getting out when the trade moved against them, they held on and are now pleading and praying the stock will turn around. I hate to be the one to break it to you, but ‘hope’ is not a strategy… at least not one with a winning trading record. Now on to number three in our list of top reasons why most traders lose money: 3) They Don’t Have A Trading Strategy As you’ll see, I’ve saved the best for last as this one alone can help fix or eliminate the other two we just discussed. So first, let’s answer this question: What Is A Trading Strategy? Well, a trading strategy gives you three key pieces of information you need before ever entering a trade: 1) It tells you WHAT you are trading. Is it stocks, options, futures, cryptocurrencies? This is answered in your trading strategy. 2) It answers when you ENTER a trade. 3) It answers when you EXIT a trade and that’s exiting with a profit or loss. Now, let’s take a look at an example here using TSLA on how I make decisions trading. I like to look at three different indicators, that when in alignment, give me a clear signal to go long or short a stock or ETF. As you can see on the charts, back in December of last year (2019) my indicators gave us a long signal on TSLA at around $370/share. TSLA Chart And the indicators told me we were good to go until around $850/share. All I had to do is let the indicators tell me when to get in and when to get out… no guessing, hoping, or praying. Summary So as you can see, there’s actually no big secret to why most traders are losing money. It’s actually pretty simple to see and correct, but it takes a plan and a little bit of discipline.
NASDAQ:LYFTEducation
by rockwelltrading
1
$5,000 Mistake On SPCELet me walk you through one trade I took back in February. NYSE:SPCE Waking up on Feb 25th, I noticed SPCE started tanking due to bad earnings. Recognizing this Head & Shoulder pattern wasn't difficult... At All! Even though I had just started options trading the week before, I decided to trust my technical analysis opinion and took the trade. On Feb 25th I bought 3 $29 strike puts expiring 2/28 (2/28 the morning we bottomed out at $20). Waking up the next day (Feb 26th) I sold all 3 contracts for a 80% return as I really didn't want to be greedy. Although as you see I should've trusted my TA and not let emotion come in between me and the bag. Everything is a learning experience and part of the plan. Keep your head up, trade with confidence and let's get this bread.
NYSE:SPCEShort
by DotcomJack