These stocks confirm the bottom has not happened yetMonday will determine where we are. I have three theories for now. Most importantly I am not yet convinced the near-term bottom is in because other stocks that have followed the market pretty well have not finished their wave 5 bottoms which would have them notch lows lower than their wave 3 bottoms from June.
The S&P 500 index ended its last long bull run with a top on January 4, 2022. It ended Primary wave 1 with a firm bottom on February 24, 2022 (this is the sell-off on the first day of Russia-Ukraine conflict). Primary wave 2 topped on March 29, 2022. Primary wave 3 bottomed on June 17, 2022. Primary wave 4 topped on August 16, 2022, while nearly touching the top trendline which began on January 4 and ran to March 29.Multiple stocks, especially those in the NASDAQ began the bear market earlier in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Amazon ( AMZN ) is one of these stocks. The stock had an all-time high July 13, 2021; however, this was likely a wave 3 top from the prior waves instead of the beginning of its own bear market. This was confirmed when Amazon’s lows in May and June 2022 flashed wave 3 signals instead of cementing a wave 5 base and market bottom. Therefore, Amazon began its decline with a top on November 19, 2021. It finished wave 1on March 8, 2022, wave 2 on March 29, 2022, wave 3 on May 24, 2022, wave 4 on August 16, 2022. Amazon began its waves early but achieved market reversals for waves 2 and 4 while bottoming with the market around June 17. If unsure about the index, this stock can also hold clues as it is yet to drop below its wave 3 bottom.
Next stock is Target ( TGT ). The stock presented the wave 3 peak from its last bull run on August 11, 2021; however, it achieved an all-time high on November 15, 2021. This is where I believe its bear market began. Wave 1 ended February 24, 2022, wave 2 on April 21, 2022, wave 3 on June 30, 2022, and wave 4 on August 16, 2022. This stock matched the wave 1 and 4 reversals while forming a bottom, just not its final on June 17 as well. This stock is trending well with the market. Like AMZN, it is yet to go below its wave 3 bottom and therefore I believe more declines are to come.
Next is Lowes ( LOW ) which is in a slightly different ending position but yet to drop below it’s wave 3 bottom. The Lowes bear market began on December 13, 2021. Wave 1 ended with the market on February 24. Wave 2 ended on March 21. Wave 3 ended on June 22, while achieving a near bottom with the market on June 17. Wave 4 ended on August 17 which is one day behind the market. For now it appears it may be further along in its final wave 5 down, but it is still 12 points above the wave 3 low. The trendlines have not been as helpful from a technical standpoint for this bear market.
Rockwell Automation ( NYSE:ROK ) is another stock moving with the market, however, the trend lines are not producing points of resistance. Wave 1 began December 16, 2021 and ended with the market on February 24, 2022. Wave 2 ended with the market on March 29, 2022. Wave 3 ended days after the market on June 22, 2022. Wave 4 ended with the market on August 16. This stock has tracked very tightly with the index, and if this remains true I currently have ROK around Minor wave 2 in Intermediate wave 5. This is more apparent than the current movement in the index, however, it can be used to indicate what lies ahead for the market.
Old Dominion ( ODFL ) is next with the bear market beginning December 7, 2021. Wave 1 ended with the market on February 24, 2022, wave 2 on March 18, wave 3 ended on May 19, but did find another market low on June 17 with the market. Wave 4 ended on August 11 and the stock is currently around Intermediate wave 5 preparing for its final bottom.
Another high volume darling with earnings this week is Apple ( AAPL ). It began the bear market with the index on January 4, 2022. Wave 1 ended slightly later on March 14, but it also shared a major bottom on February 24 with the market. Wave 2 ended on March 30, wave 3 ended June 16, 2022, and wave 4 ended on August 17. The last three reversals for Apple occurred one day after the market, so this is something to consider moving forward. A drop to the wave 3 bottom requires a minimum 20 point loss from Friday’s close. This stock has quite a bit of ground to lose and the stock trends up prior to earnings. An earnings call bomb is the quickest way for Apple to retake the June lows.
The S&P 500 has gone below the Primary wave 3 bottom so technically it does not have to go lower than it did on October 13. I am using the stocks mentioned here to determine when the index has bottomed as I do not believe it has occurred yet. Tomorrow will be big for the index. The current chart has us possibly still in Intermediate wave 4, and it would likely be near the Minor C wave. The trendlines for SPX have held well and there is not much before that line is met. This only leaves room for the near-term top to happen no later than tomorrow. For this entire analysis to hold true, we should have an overall down week. Big earnings start coming out by mid-week to include some of the stocks mentioned here. I will map out the sub waves once I know where we are in Intermediate wave 5. Earliest models would have Intermediate 5 lasting 11 days IF we ended Minor wave 2 on Friday. If we are not in Intermediate wave 5 yet, the length could be around 15 days long.
Upcoming catalysts besides earnings are the Fed the first week in November and the U.S. elections the second week of November.
LOW
Simple box to look up down trendA simple box in 20 candle to monitor price
Top is the highest and bottom is the lowest of close in 20 candles.
As close is moving outside this box then the signal is up or down trend.
Code sample:
low_val = ta.lowest(close, 20)
high_val = ta.highest(close, 20)
//Create Box
box bx = na
bx := box.new(time , high_val, time, low_val, xloc=xloc.bar_time, bgcolor=color.new(color.aqua, 90), border_width=1)
box.delete(bx )
Logarithmic retrace predicts 10kI copied red trend line from all-time high of bull market 1 to bear market low to next 2 all-time highs. Bull market 1 retrace perfectly matched retrace of bull market 2. Now we are in bull market 3 and if we retrace the same as 2 previous bull markets we are on the way to 10k. I would expect rally before that, something like 30-40k then big dump to 10k... before halving...
Hurricanes and Home RepairIt is time to put LOW and HD on your radar for two reasons. One I like how the technical complex looks and the other is the fact a major hurricane is going to rip into Tampa, FL (where I'm at), or somewhere into the U.S.
In that same breadth it is imperative that we keep an eye on the Oil Stocks such as OXY and XOM, of which, I will be looking at and posting shortly with levels. One thing that is really striking is how the stores are already selling completely out of water this weekend, after visiting 8 stores and coming up empty handed. BUT, how will the country be faced with gasoline shortages as mass panic begins to strike into the human mindsets, fear, and much more. Especially with not knowing the exact placement of the hurricane and the strength of destruction as the country is facing record high inflation and the government is depleting the strategic reserves of our Oil. THEY will need to start buying the Oil off the market at a rapid pace before the price of oil begins to aggressively increase - thus fueling the demand for buying; causing a momentum spike in price action.
I will try to link all of those charts together for simplicity purposes.
My support/resistance lines are represented with the horizontal lines. You can use those as targets and/or entries for positions based on bounces of those areas or rejections.
USDJPY - SIGNAL ON 15 MIN [BUY]Pair Name: USD/JPY
Time Frame: 15 MIN
Analise Type: liquidity zones, order blocks
Reasons:
•Bearish trend but London session created a false breakout
•New liquidity created that hopefully will be reacted by the price
•Previous liquidity reacted well by the price
•Daily low created in London Session
Bitcoin 1W | The last bad monthsI see the current downward trend as the steps of building a new falling wedge in the weekly timeframe.
One of the key prices I see for Bitcoin is the range of $13,000 to $13,800 and I think the price will tend to this range.
I hope you are ready for a good investment .
A new low on EURUSD Yesterday we saw a breakout of 0,9950! Those are historical levels for this currency pair but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be looking for further continuation down.
We are now expecting to see price even lower. The next target is 0,9900 and basically the round numbers after that.
Entries could be made with aggressive stops and after any small pullback.
You don't even have to use a fixed TP but instead, you can have an open target and just move stops into profit every time price creates a lower structure.
LOW SELLLowe's, Home Depot, Restoration Hardware and this sector are overbought and ultimately going lower as we haven't seen the ramifications of higher interest rates, slowing economy, layoffs and everything else that comes with a severe recession. Bear market rallies are not to be bought! LOW is overbought on several time frame charts and indicators. Purchased 25 August 5th $185 puts will add on share price increase
Aproaching the bottom of a major 40M nominal wave in BTCWe are moving closer to the expected bottom of 3rd harmonic (13M) of the major 40M wave.
Although we have seen some bounce, we seem to have already broken Valid Trend Line for a short 5W and 10W waves, the VTL of longer bands like 20W and 40W wave have not been broken yet. We will be looking forward to have both 20W and 40W Valid Trend Lines broken - the confirmation that the bottom of those two waves have passed.
That will let us assume that the major 13M/40M bottom is already behind.
Our target price is 11-13k USD coming 10th of August.
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) forecastAfter the housing market is starting to see the impact of higher mortgage rates, LOW`s earnings beat and revenue which fell short of expectations aren`t enough to keep the stock price up.
I expect a retracement to the pre-pandemic level of $129 by the end of this year.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
EURNZD Short Term Sell IdeaH4 - Price has reached a key resistance zone .
Bearish divergence.
H1 - Bearish divergence.
Until the key resistance zone holds my short term view remains bearish here.
If the price breaks below the low at 1.65660 with momentum we may then consider it as a validation for this short term bearish view and may expect the price to move lower further.