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ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2019.12.17A good time to update the AUD chart-pack after the updates from a dovish RBA. Soft on wages and consumption with emphasis on outlook reassessment in Feb. Unless we see the domestic story pickup dramatically in Australia it will continue to keep AUD stuck in low gear. Support is found here at 0.685x and sizes I’m seeing should be enough to carry us towards the widely tracked 0.695x target: Buying dips makes sense... Bulls in full control: Macro Chart suggests a lot of upside for AUD: NZD dips are also starting to look more attractive: Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. Good luck all those buying dips in AUD.
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | AUDNZD Market Commentary 2019.11.29Here we are tracking further downside in the cross as NZD strength continues across the board before AUD takes the wheel in 2020. Among the commodity currencies, NZD stands out the most into year-end and those following the macro updates in Telegram and charts will know I have also been sitting long NZDCAD, with a dovish BoC and RBNZ 'hawkish' surprise there continues to be further upside: For AUDNZD flows, for the most part of 2019 the market has been heavily short NZD, and the NZD short cleansing pullback is likely to continue if regional growth and trade improves. Watching risk sentiment closely, with AUDJPY and NZDJPY coming to life intraday and with the power to drive the commodity currencies on other crosses. On the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last meeting and see a lot of NZD shorts left that that need unwinding. With that in mind I see both AUD and NZD as bullish vs USD: As previously mentioned, confidence for those betting on the topside has increased dramatically after cracking 1.0620, watch closely for follow-throughs here into 2020 after the NZD outperformance theme fades away. Best of luck those already in positions and those looking to build swing positions into 2020. ...Please remember to keep the support coming with likes and comments!
by ridethepig
RBA ASSIST GOV LOWE SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - AUDUSD AUDJPY EURAUD* Gov Lowe speech Highlights: -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME, BUT THEN TO GRADUALLY PICK UP AS LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR VIEW IS THAT A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION TARGET REMAINS THE RIGHT MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TARGET IS THE BEST WAY FOR US TO DELIVER LOW AND STABLE INFLATION IN A WAY THAT CONTRIBUTES TO OUR OTHER BROAD RESPONSIBILITIES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY LOW INTEREST RATES AND THE DEPRECIATION OF THE EXCHANGE RATE SINCE EARLY 2013 -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS HOUSING SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN IT WAS A YEAR AGO, ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THINGS CAREFULLY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR JUDGEMENT IS THAT PAST EASING IN MONETARY POLICY IS SUPPORTING JOBS AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS BOARD VERY CONSCIOUS THAT RATE CUTS MEAN LOWER INTEREST INCOME FOR SAVERS  -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS THE ECONOMY IS ADJUSTING REASONABLY WELL TO THE UNWINDING OF THE BIGGEST MINING INVESTMENT BOOM IN MORE THAN A CENTURY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS RECENT GDP DATA A LITTLE ABOVE MOST ESTIMATES OF TREND GROWTH IN OUR ECONOMY.  -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  STORY ON INCOME GROWTH HAS BEEN LESS POSITIVE, WITH GROWTH IN NOMINAL GDP BEING DISAPPOINTING -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS IMPORTANTLY, THE DRAG FROM THE FALL IN MINING INVESTMENT WILL COME TO AN END -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LOW WAGE GROWTH AND LOWER COMMODITY PRICES HAVE MEANT THAT CPI INFLATION HAS BEEN QUITE LOW OVER RECENT TIMES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  IF THESE INCREASES WERE TO BE SUSTAINED THEN WE COULD LOOK FORWARD TO THE DRAG ON NATIONAL INCOME FROM FALLING COMMODITY PRICES COMING TO AN END -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS RECENT NEWS ON COMMODITY PRICES HAS BEEN A BIT MORE POSITIVE THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR A WHILE -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION GROWTH HAS BEEN OK, NOT FAR FROM TREND -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS A LOWER AUD WOULD BE HELPFUL -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS , BUT OF COURSE MOST CENTRAL BANKS WOULD LIKE LOWER CURRENCIES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS UNDERSTANDABLE WHY AUD HAS RISEN OVER RECENT MONTHS, BUT GOOD IF A BIT LOWER -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LABOUR MARKET STORY POSITIVE OVERALL, CAN LOOK FORWARD TO REASONABLE JOBS GROWTH -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LABOUR MARKET NOT AS STRONG AS HEADLINE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SUGGESTS -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS VERY UNLIKELY RBA WILL RUN OUT OF POLICY ROOM -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS GOVERNMENT COULD USE BALANCE SHEET TO BORROW TO FUND INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS WOULD BE WATCHING MARKET REACTION SHOULD TRUMP BE ELECTED -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULAR CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR MARKETS SHOULD DONALD TRUMP BE ELECTED US PRESIDENT -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS FURTHER CUT IN RATES IS POSSIBLE, DEPENDS ON WHOLE RANGE OF FACTORS -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS POCKETS OF SPARE CAPACITY IN CHINESE ECONOMY, BUT DO NOT WANT TO OVERSTATE THE PROBLEMS
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
RBA ASSIST GOV LOWE SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - AUDUSD AUDJPY EURAUD Gov Lowe speech Highlights: -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME, BUT THEN TO GRADUALLY PICK UP AS LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR VIEW IS THAT A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION TARGET REMAINS THE RIGHT MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TARGET IS THE BEST WAY FOR US TO DELIVER LOW AND STABLE INFLATION IN A WAY THAT CONTRIBUTES TO OUR OTHER BROAD RESPONSIBILITIES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY LOW INTEREST RATES AND THE DEPRECIATION OF THE EXCHANGE RATE SINCE EARLY 2013 -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS HOUSING SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN IT WAS A YEAR AGO, ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THINGS CAREFULLY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR JUDGEMENT IS THAT PAST EASING IN MONETARY POLICY IS SUPPORTING JOBS AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS BOARD VERY CONSCIOUS THAT RATE CUTS MEAN LOWER INTEREST INCOME FOR SAVERS  -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS THE ECONOMY IS ADJUSTING REASONABLY WELL TO THE UNWINDING OF THE BIGGEST MINING INVESTMENT BOOM IN MORE THAN A CENTURY -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS RECENT GDP DATA A LITTLE ABOVE MOST ESTIMATES OF TREND GROWTH IN OUR ECONOMY.  -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  STORY ON INCOME GROWTH HAS BEEN LESS POSITIVE, WITH GROWTH IN NOMINAL GDP BEING DISAPPOINTING -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS IMPORTANTLY, THE DRAG FROM THE FALL IN MINING INVESTMENT WILL COME TO AN END -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LOW WAGE GROWTH AND LOWER COMMODITY PRICES HAVE MEANT THAT CPI INFLATION HAS BEEN QUITE LOW OVER RECENT TIMES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS  IF THESE INCREASES WERE TO BE SUSTAINED THEN WE COULD LOOK FORWARD TO THE DRAG ON NATIONAL INCOME FROM FALLING COMMODITY PRICES COMING TO AN END -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS RECENT NEWS ON COMMODITY PRICES HAS BEEN A BIT MORE POSITIVE THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR A WHILE -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION GROWTH HAS BEEN OK, NOT FAR FROM TREND -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS A LOWER AUD WOULD BE HELPFUL -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS , BUT OF COURSE MOST CENTRAL BANKS WOULD LIKE LOWER CURRENCIES -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS UNDERSTANDABLE WHY AUD HAS RISEN OVER RECENT MONTHS, BUT GOOD IF A BIT LOWER -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LABOUR MARKET STORY POSITIVE OVERALL, CAN LOOK FORWARD TO REASONABLE JOBS GROWTH -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS LABOUR MARKET NOT AS STRONG AS HEADLINE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SUGGESTS -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS VERY UNLIKELY RBA WILL RUN OUT OF POLICY ROOM -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS GOVERNMENT COULD USE BALANCE SHEET TO BORROW TO FUND INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS WOULD BE WATCHING MARKET REACTION SHOULD TRUMP BE ELECTED -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULAR CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR MARKETS SHOULD DONALD TRUMP BE ELECTED US PRESIDENT -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS FURTHER CUT IN RATES IS POSSIBLE, DEPENDS ON WHOLE RANGE OF FACTORS -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS POCKETS OF SPARE CAPACITY IN CHINESE ECONOMY, BUT DO NOT WANT TO OVERSTATE THE PROBLEMS
by QuantumLogicTrading