GBPUSD Short|Range Resistance| Overthrow| Bearish Retest| 200MA Evening Traders,
Today’s Analysis – GBPUSD – range trading putting in a bearish retest with the immediate target range midpoint.
Points to consider,
- Overthrow (no follow through)
- Range resistance confluence (200MA)
- Range midpoint (Local support)
- Oscillators neutral
- Volume below average
-
GBPUSD’s immediate trend is bearish with consecutive lower highs. Price broke range resistance with no follow through (over throw), further solidifying the bearish bias
Range resistance is in confluence with the 200 MA, price is putting a probable bearish retest here. The range mid-point will be the immediate target – local support.
The RSI is neutral whilst the stochastics is in the upper regions, indication that momentum is stored to the downside in the market.
Volume is trading below average, an influx is likely as price trades to the downside.
Overall, in my opinion, GBPUSD is likely to test range midpoint as price action looks weak. A bearish retest is likely forming where a short can be placed with defined risk.
What are your thoughts?
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And remember,
“Genuine acceptance that there will be losses on your way to market success will greatly decrease the hurt when they eventually come.” ― yvan Byeajee
Lowerhighs
USDCAD Short |Rising Wedge|Resistance Confluence|Daily SupportEvening Traders,
Today’s Analysis – USDCAD – trading in a probable rising wedge pattern at local resistance, breaking down bearish will be a short opportunity.
Points to consider,
- Trend Bearish ( Consecutive lower highs)
- Daily support respected
- Local resistance confluence
- RSI wedge
- Volume tapering off
USDCAD’s overall trend is bearish with consecutive lower highs; local resistance is the next trade location. This area has multiple technical confluences, the .618 Fibonacci and market structure allows for a valid short with defined risk.
Daily support is the trend target if price action was to break bearish
The RSI is also trading in a wedge pattern, breaking down bearish will confirm weakness in the market, the trend is likely to continue down.
Volume is tapering off and remaining below average. A volume spike is probable coinciding with a break of the wedge.
Overall, in my opinion, USDCAD is likely to respect local resistance. A short trade is valid into daily support with defined risk. Breaking down from the wedge must be backed with increasing bear volume for follow through.
What are your thoughts?
Thank you for following my work !
And remember,
“Trade the market in front of you, not the one you want!” – Scott Redler
BCHBTC Low Volume|Bearish Pennant|Apex| Breakout imminent Evening Traders,
Today’s technical analysis will be on BCHBTC, trading very close to its apex with a breakout being imminent.
Points to consider,
- Local Trend bearish
- Price trading near apex
- RSI testing support
- Stochastics projected down
- Volume extremely low
- Local support - .50 Fibonacci
BCHBTC’s local trend has been bearish, consecutive lower highs evident; this can be considered as a bearish pennant, a continuation pattern.
Price is coiling up near its apex, support and resistances are converging, decision time is upon fruition.
The RSI is testing its support; break will highly coincide with further downside momentum, similar case with the stochastics that’s already projecting down.
The volume is clearly below average, this signals a breakout being imminent from this current formation.
A break bearish needs to close below the .50 Fibonacci Level, this will confirm continuation in the trend, as local support is breached.
Overall, in my opinion, BCHBTC is upon a break, this current formation can be regarded as a bearish pennant as the trend is clearly making consecutive lower highs.
What are your thoughts?
Please leave a like and comment,
And remember,
Timing, perseverance, and ten years of trying will eventually make you look like an overnight success. – Biz Stone
Silver Weekly Resistance| Oversold bounce|Macro Structure Evening Traders!,
Today’s update will be on Silver, which has breached an important weekly support, now potential resistance upon a retest.
Points to consider,
- Trend bearish (lower highs)
- Back test of Support likely
- RSI in oversold conditions
- Stochastics in lower regions
- Volume climax evident
- VPVR currently flat
Silvers overall trend has been putting in consecutive lower highs, it broke a major high timeframe support with a gap open. Back test of this support will confirm a bearish retest, which will be extremely bearish.
The RSI is in oversold conditions, leading silver to a probable oversold bounce into weekly resistance. Stochastics is in the lower regions, can stay trading here for an extended period of time, however lots of stored momentum to the
upside.
Volume climax is evident, with above average nodes, sign that a temporary bottom may be in. The VPVR is currently flat, this is within the open gap region where silver is likely to fill for a retest.
Overall, in my opinion, Silvers oversold bounce is probable for a retest of weekly resistance; a rejection will be very bearish for the overall macro structure.
What are your thoughts?
Please leave a like and comment,
And remember,
Timing, perseverance, and ten years of trying will eventually make you look like an overnight success. – Biz Stone
ETHUSD Range Median| Local Trend| $100 Psychological LevelEvening Traders,
Today’s Technical analysis will focus on distinctive levels on ETHUSD, currently holding its local trend line, a break will likely send it to lower support ($100 psychological level).
Points to consider,
- Trend bearish
- Local trend being tested
- Confirmed bearish retest
- RSI testing support
- Stochastics in lower high projection
- Clear decline in volume
ETHUSD’s immediate trend has been bearish with consecutive lower highs in projection; a break down will establish yet another lower high.
The local trend line is being tested; this is at range median between structural resistance and $100 Psychological support. A re-test of the psychological support will increase if this trend line does not hold.
ETHUSD has had a confirmed bearish retest with a wick, this signals strong sell pressure coming in. The RSI is currently testing support; a break of this level will be in synch with a break of the local trend line.
The Stochastics is currently trading in a lower high projection, still with stored momentum to the downside. ETHUSD also has clear declining volume; this signals an influx being probable, especially when testing key pivot levels.
Overall, in my opinion, if the local trend line breaks, ETHUSD is likely to re-test the $100 psychological level, if buy pressure fails to come in, then this gives us a short opportunity.
What are your thoughts?
Please leave a like and comment,
And remember,
“Amateurs think about how much money they can make. Professionals think about how much money they could lose.” – Jack Schwager
$CREE Lower Prices Ahead$CREE is under pressure technically and broke under a key uptrend line. Just looking at the chart and you can see that $CREE has been making lower highs and lows. We believe $CREE is going under $40 and will test new 52 week lows. This all comes after $CREE delivered disappointing Q1 earnings and forecast a loss in Q2. Here are the highlights:
Cree (NASDAQ:CREE) beat Q1 estimates despite a 12% Y/Y revenue decline. The downside Q2 guidance sees revenue of $234-240M (consensus: $244.17M) and a loss per share of $0.07 to $0.11 (consensus: $0).
Q1 Wolfspeed revenue totaled $127.7M versus the $128.6M consensus. LED revenue was $115.1M compared to $114.2M.
As always, use protective stops and trade with caution.
Good luck to all!
$BTC $BTCUSD Making Lower Highs$BTC needs to hold $9k or look out below.
Momentum looks to have died.
Waning interest from mainstream media has lead to lack of new buyers.
Losses from margin trading at BitMex will further propel the downside.
Whales have pumped as hard as they could. Buyers beware.
Good luck to all!
Finding Bitcoin Cycle Bottom Using Fibonacci ToolIn this post, i'll share a tool which helps you find Bitcoin's market cycles bottoms, it is the Trend Based Fibonacci extension.
You don't need to understand what this tool is to know how to use it, but if you want an explanation here is a video.
www.youtube.com
First start by laying the trend at the market top, then count from there the next 3-4 lower lows, lay the trend, and extend the fibonacci tool part to the next closest lower high.
That's it! Now you just keep an eye out on those levels.
An important Note
These levels are to be used as areas to determine where to buy or sell and not specific price point . This is too help you find a better entry on average and potentially not miss the next run up.
CADJPY short setupcadjpy on the weekly doesn't show a lot apart form basic support and resistance but when I went down a timeframe, I saw daily trendline making lower highs and lower lows.
4hr/1hr timeframe showed me a rising wedge occurring while breaking out and making a head and shoulders pattern.
CAD/CHF Trade IdeaHello and welcome to my Trade Idea of the currency pair CAD/CHF:
Lets start with the Top Down Analysis.
Monthly: On monthly we see the currency pair has made L.H (Lower Highs) and H.L (Higher lows). In summary, the trend has made a Pennant.
Weekly: We've been seeing more lower highs lately which confirms the trend is bearish.
Daily: We see a trendline, and the candle touched the trendline just before the market closed.
H4: H4 is for today the timeframe where we wait to execute the trade. I'll keep you up to date when the market opens.
TSLA - The bubble already poppedTESLA lower lows and lower highs. Those still in this tech bubble will be soon complaining the market is rigged..... The company doesn't make a profit, heck it barely even makes cars..... at least numbers wise. Macro says momentum is over. When this company comes down to the automotive P/E multiple of low teens / high singles. This company is a 10-20$ stock. Don't let this be your blackberry. GET OUT NOW! If you have to be part of the company for ideologue reasons. Then buy its junk bonds for penny's on the dollar.
Chart makes a better water slide than anything
Chart of the Day: XOM weekly chart continues downward spiralSince 2016, XOM has been trading off 78.6% lower highs with MACD cross-downs followed by an ABCD completion. No reason to think this time would be any different considering the company has a fair bit of debt, production volumes has not been all that great and recent investments in US shale may not be as rosy as previously thought.
The target for this weekly CD leg is c.$60 which is a long way down.
NASDAQ - Where can we go next ? Good old indices.
Okay firstly, so looking at the weekly timeframe, we have a potential head & shoulders pattern forming which will allow the bears to take over the market.
Dropping down to the daily timeframe we can see we broke out of an ascending channel and currently we are retesting it. If we can close below the counter trend line, we should see downside momentum. Although the candle stick pattern, a hammer followed by a bullish engulfing, I do see this pair falling in the long term. The bullish engulfing has brought us up to and between the 78.6 and 88.6 Fibonacci levels. There is a minor resistance seen here for 5 candle wicks dating back to the 25th of February.
I will be looking for reversals from this zone between the 78.6/88.6, a 3rd touch of the descending trend line with a strong candle stick pattern indicating price action is bearish. This will then create a discrete lower high followed by a lower low. Dropping down to the 4HR timeframe, we can see a higher high followed by a higher low, then there was a break of structure creating lower lows and lower highs. Thus i am looking for confirmation to short this pair with a great risk to reward ratio.
If no opportunity for a sell is presented for us and the resistance is broken, this short analysis will be invalidated. Which, leads to my next scenario. We see a higher high or a high created followed by a higher low to form an inverse head and shoulder pattern on the 4HR timeframe, allowing us to breach the monthly resistance and go higher.
NB : Risk management is key with indices, especially with each $1 accounting for 10 pips. Trade with risk management and smash the week!
instagram : keownarcher
Uncle Sam Whipped by Nippon
USDJPY forming a descending triangle on the four hour. Managed to hit large quarter point at 110, but each challenge led to higher lows consistent to the counter trendline. It seems like price action peaked above the 61.8 fib level, and no longer has bullish momentum. A reversal trend is imminent, most likely when price breaks below the blue line @109.819
If price does break below the blue line, then bears have taken over the trend and I will short until price reaches the orange zone.
Orange zone: 109.5-109.6
Price goal: Fib level 78.6 (@109.385)
Bitcoin: Range Favors Long Term Bull?Bitcoin update: The lack of activity continues and when it will stop NO ONE knows. There is a series of lower highs and lower lows on the more immediate time frames but this condition hardly qualifies as a worthwhile trend. Especially since the current price is basically in between the two range extremes: 4100 high and 3K low. Until it takes out one of these levels decisively, we will only play it from the position trade perspective. Any shorter time frame is not worth the effort and cost involved.
When I refer to NO ONE, I am referring to the retail traders and all of the gurus who advise them. The people who know when Bitcoin is going to break one way or the other are the insiders. The current market is perfect for broad and quiet accumulation while preparing for a news event in the pipe line. I would imagine that large players like Coinbase, or others in the same league have a much better idea as to when important news will spike this market. Just like the Cannabis stocks went out of favor and right back in favor within a couple of months (starting with Cramer’s interview of Cannabis CEOs about a month ago). Before the positive news brought the herd rushing back into those stocks, the charts were ugly, and offered no clues toward the impressive rally that followed (CGC went from 25 to 50). This same type of effect is what will bring the herd rushing back into Bitcoin in my opinion.
This is why we keep telling our followers that there are two ways to play this market: accumulate a small amount, and WAIT it out. The second way is to WAIT for the spike, let it play out and then look for continuation pattern opportunities. Notice both methods involve WAITING (which no one likes). The first scenario obviously involves more risk because this market can drift much lower.
Even though price is setting up to go lower over the short term, that does not mean the market is in a trend. A break below the 3400 level can lead to a push into the 3200’s. Why isn’t that a trend? The answer is 3200 is NOT a new low. Bitcoin has been as low as 3122 and IF that level breaks, it then has to contend with the 3K psychological support. The chances of a failed low or double bottom formation developing in such areas are very high. This is why jumping in with shorts and expecting 2K or whatever else the herd is betting on is such a high risk. Also people do not consider the amount of time and attention required to trade the short term moves. One mistake can make the whole effort fruitless.
Also keep in mind, the broader reward/risk favors the long side. None of the alt coins have broken away from Bitcoin’s control. They all still follow the leader which makes them just a cheaper extension of this market when it comes to risk. That means if Bitcoin is going to remain at the forefront of blockchain, at some point it is more likely to attract more buyers rather than more people looking to get out. One of the reasons why it doesn’t move like it used to is because many of the reactive and “loose” players have been shaken out. Without new money, there is very little liquidity to profit from. You think you are going to profit from the smart money?
In summary, when a market becomes out of play, hated or forgotten, that is usually when long term opportunity is prevalent (but far from obvious). The typical trader or investor gets excited when a market is pushing highs, and is on the forefront of the news. And that is when professionals take the opportunity to unload their inventory (Cannabis stocks are perfect example). The best thing to do in this environment is focus on the big picture, not the short term hype or over exaggerated reactions. Whether you are holding inventory or looking for shorter term trades, WAITING is the most effective action you can take. The worst thing you can do is force trades and get caught up in the gambling mentality which is very easy to do when you lack experience.
Until Bitcoin pushes a major support or resistance, lack of follow through will be common. Avoid the noise by either staying out completely or accumulating some inventory (if you don’t have any). There is no need to be big, and there is no need to be overly invested in the alts. It’s all the same market at this point. If you want action, it is pretty much everywhere else but here, just keep it on the radar. When this market returns to a more favorable situation, it will happen fast, and you may miss the initial move, but isn’t it better to have capital waiting on the sidelines rather than having to make it back from all the losses incurred from the gambling mentality?