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BTC Update! Bulls continue to fail at rallyingLast chart I was cautious of taking any bullish positions as there was some increasing bear volume and I was having my doubts the bulls would hold the prior low of $3869 and give us a higher low. They did fail and we fell to a lower low on this move which now sits at $3732. The positive was from there the bulls did make a slight higher high on 4 hour chart. Beating out $4018 and getting up to $4035. Some would argue $4018 wasn't a true high to watch for and really it is up at $4185 or $4277. I am perfectly fine with that line of thinking simply because these recent bull rallies (really short bounces in reality) since our high of $4415 have all been extremely short lived. Either way, from $4035, we are now back to falling again and seeing if the bulls can stop these lower lows from repeating. $3732 is the level they'd love to hold but once again, having my doubts and continue to happily sit in cash this week. Bulls really need to start proving they can sustain a bounce for more than 4-12 hours otherwise it is just giving the bears plenty of time to load into short positions and absolutely no rush to cover any open shorts. Will continue to check in each day on chart and anything jumps out will try and get an updated chart posted. Hope everyone has a nice week and continues to protect that capital! Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTCUSD: 4K Break Points To 3K Support?BTCUSD update: Price breaks 4K which is in line with recently developed structure. Since the 4800 break, we have been staying away from this market as far as any new positions. We have rules and a plan which we are not going to deviate from in reaction to recent price movement. The 4800 area was a major support level that we had been writing about for months. Once that was taken out, Bitcoin has gone on our avoid list. Along with the majority of the alt coins. This means we hold what we have and wait this out. We were very careful when we were accumulating our inventory and we can afford to take the pain. Although we are short term bearish (because we listen to market structure), we are not long term bearish. We got rid of the weakest alts in our portfolio weeks ago, and only hold the most promising. Based on the technical structure at the moment, Bitcoin is still poised to go lower. The 3K area is actually where the next relevant support is located. Will it go there? We don't make predictions, we follow price action. It is possible, but it is also possible that price finds support sooner. The key is to let price prove itself. For us that means bearish trend lines need to be taken out. Until that happens, we will continue to play a strong defense and steer clear of this mess. Thanks to best practices, we stayed away from most alts while Bitcoin was consolidating. As Bitcoin goes lower, the alts will suffer and this was a scenario we did not want to be a part of. As many are now jumping on the short side, we are not about to start. Leverage is something we have been against using in these markets from the beginning and do not intend to start using it now. Our plan is simple, we wait until conditions become more favorable, and only then will we be open to accumulating more. Many people treat these markets like the more traditional stocks or forex. We have always recognized that these markets carry much greater risks partly because of their lack of regulation. This makes them very vulnerable to the games that large players can play. And shaking out the weak in order to buy at the best prices is something they have done for decades in other markets. Many of the techniques that they used are now illegal in traditional markets, but NOT in this market. Collusion, sharing inside information, and forcing margin liquidations are perfectly legal here. That is why we believe this is just one massive shake out over the long run. In summary, the market has revealed its hand. It chose the break the long consolidation it was in and is now in search of a new level. When a trend unfolds, many will come out and make tons of predictions, but they do not know any more than anyone else. Just like all the "experts" who were calling for 30K during the bull market. The key to maneuvering any market successfully is not making predictions, but instead adjusting as the market reveals new information. The market is always right and as a trader or investor, it is our responsibility to listen to it, especially when it changes. Our adjustment is simple: avoid. We are not driven by greed or reacting to emotions and not looking to get short in any way. And next to listening, there comes risk control. We were all about going long above 6K, but we were always cognizant of the possibility that we could be wrong. We wrote it regularly, "anything can happen". Following best practices allowed us to factor the possibility of facing such an adverse environment as we were accumulating inventory. And because of that we can hold. If Bitcoin is going provide value in the future, it will eventually find a support, build a base and gradually develop a much more favorable environment for longs. Now it is just a matter of waiting for the process to play out. There is no need to keep buying into something that has proven weakness. There will be plenty of opportunities to buy when the evidence of broader strength returns.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
BTC Update! Bears remain in control - what I watch forGood morning crypto traders! Last chart I discussed using $6441 as my personal stop loss based on it being the most recent Higher Low on the 4 hour chart. Once bulls lost the Higher Highs, I was expecting the bulls to then give way to the bears and let them take a Lower Low. This is where my Stop Loss triggers and locks in my profits from the trade and I happily sit back in cash to watch the trend change play out and see how long the bears will control it. On this chart, I decided to do more education of how I analyze a chart. Starting left to right. I placed the green arrows to show our initial uptrend from $6202. We went up, then formed a higher low and then a higher high and continued this pattern until we topped out at $6540. To this point bulls still feel fine as higher lows and higher highs are in tact. They dropped to $6441 for the higher low but then failed to make the higher high after that and then fell to a lower low. Here is the trend change from higher highs and higher lows to lower highs and lower lows. Traders have stops in place to protect capital and lock in profits after the initial uptrend. Other bearish signs include the EMAs crossing over as well as an uptick in bear volume. As stated last chart, I was happy sitting in cash unless the bulls were going to show a change from lower highs and lower lows back to higher highs and higher lows. Bulls made a slight attempt in getting a higher high (all be it by $10) but when consolidating back down, they failed to give a higher low and we saw the spike in bear volume and a push down to this recent low at $6253. So currently our support is $6253 and then $6202 which was our bottom from when the initial last bull move started at. Resistance at $6384 for the bulls to re-attempt a higher high. EMAs acting as pretty strong resistance on this move as well so an easy spot for bears to pile in for short positions as EMAs get approached. So again, remaining all cash and waiting for the trend to change back to the bulls favor. Remember, nothing goes straight up or straight down. There are trades you can make even bullish trades in an overall bearish market that we've seen for nearly a year now. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
Market recapWell VIX watchers...the week ending November 2nd, 2018. The Cboe VIX has dropped 20% from weeks high on Tuesday and a near bottom buyers market. Based on Fibonacci retracement we're below 0.500 retracement nearing 0.618. When we hit 0.786 retracement next week, or below 15 we'll start to see some sell offs taking profits. We've tested the low, but is there another round of testing from big money shaking out more after the VIX profit grab. Some expect yes, but not for another 3-4 weeks, which could drive things to a new low for 2018. So watch your 4h VIX and stay tuned if you want to buy more on next likely dip. How about Alex Cora and the Red Sox, reminds me of the Troy Brown New England Patriots. Team sports back in Boston. Interested in Vanadium battery stocks, so what do you ghat? Oh, sorry. Forgot this is crypto-forex channel. Signing out, happy Friday @pokethebear. Energous IPO coming up. Let's hear about what you forgot to buy cheap next week and nice thing about crypto-forex.
CBOE:VIXShort
by Pokethebear
ETHUSD: Lower High Points Back To 200?ETHUSD update: Lower high formation relative to the 300 resistance level translates to weakness ahead. Even with the recent attempt toward a more bullish effort, the overall structure remains bearish. If Bitcoin continues to 6K, it will be interesting to see how this market behaves in relation. Like I recently wrote, we are all trading one big Bitcoin. The correlation remains high no matter what alt you are in. Until this space proves other wise, we use Bitcoin as the general sentiment gauge. Sort of like how we use the S&P for the stock market. From a technical stand point, as long as the bearish trend lines stay intact, it is reasonable to anticipate weak price action. A close below 200 can lead to a retest of the 160 lows. The question we would like to see the market answer is: what happens upon a retest of the low? If Bitcoin holds above 5700, this market is more likely to produce a failed low. That is where an attractive but aggressive long setup can materialize. Although we have been on the sidelines for weeks , we would be open to the possibility of a swing trade long IF our strict criteria is met. This would be one of the few exceptions we would make for a weak market, but it really is a play on Bitcoin strength. Keep in mind, a decisive close below the 160 level negates any bullish exceptions. We have no problem stepping aside. It has saved us a lot of capital over the recent month and a half. In summary, Bitcoin leads and the alts follow. Bitcoin turns red, the whole space turns red. This is a general observation, since there are occasional exceptions like XRP (pure herd mentality). I know people hate to wait, but waiting saves tons of money. There is nothing to miss in these markets, especially while there is a ton of opportunity elsewhere like in stocks. Learning to wait is a skill that is easy to understand, but hard to put into practice. Which goes to show, what makes this game most difficult is not the intellectual or technical part, it's the emotional part. Everyone has the ability to wait, but most can't do it. Why? The answer is not on a chart.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
ETHUSD: Price Structure And The 150 Possibility?ETHUSD update: A close below 180 will put the 150 psychological support into focus. Since the short term Bitcoin structure is pointing lower, this bearish scenario is a strong possibility. At S.C., we promote defense, not forced trades or vague suggestions (and then proceed to take credit for being "right" after the fact). The majority of alts are in a structural bear market according to the process that we use to define such a condition. Inexperienced traders do not yet have the ability to appreciate defense since their focus is on chasing profits. Imagine for a moment if you were able to go back to your performance record and erase 30 - 40% of your losses. How would that change your record? In effect that is the result of a good defense, which is underappreciated because of its intangibility. Making a profitable trade is not the biggest obstacle, not giving it back is. This is why being defensive during unfavorable conditions is essential. This is where unpopular words like patience and discipline come into play. When it comes to Ethereum, it does not matter what our opinions are about the future of its technology. Price structure is bearish and presently poised to go lower. If you look back, you will see that the 180 and 150 levels are the only points of reference for potential support. So how are we playing defense? First, we play one side of the market. This adds a layer of simplicity that reduces a number of risks, especially exchange intervention risk (see OKex). Second, we avoid any new trades (swing or position) as long as structure is clearly bearish. IF this market decides to construct a longer term recovery, there will be plenty of clues and opportunities to participate. We still carry inventory. What if we are wrong and this market goes to 0? Since we kept our positions sized relative to our account size, we can handle the loss. That is what allows us to be a strong hand and weather an unfavorable environment. What happens if the market is surprised by an Ethereum ETF approval? Have fun trying to catch that price spike. It will come out of no where, and we will benefit simply because we are willing to take the risk. Nothing on a chart can prepare you for such a random outcome. In summary, opposing views are what make a market possible. If everyone was in agreement, there would be no one to take the other side of our trades. Our plan for Ethereum is to sit on what we have until the market provides an opportunity to rotate out of the position and into more attractive candidates according to price structure. We share these specifics with our members. Until then we play defense because we can afford to wait it out.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
17
ETHUSD: Bearish Structure Says Avoid For Now.ETHUSD update: Bearish momentum continues to maintain its grip on price as the 200 level is right around the corner. Structure has been very bearish in this market since July and why we have been sitting on the sidelines. Until this changes, best practices prevent us from doing anything else. The herd mentality is a fascinating thing. And it can be observed clearly in the comments that people leave on these posts. The inexperienced do not know how to define a bear market and only consume what is put in front of them. This is actually a good thing because someone needs to be on the other side of the trade. If everyone agreed, there would be no market. At S.C., we evaluate markets on structure and probability, not opinions and feelings. If the structure says neutral or range bound, we do not look to argue with it. Bitcoin is in a high probability location, and it's price action is neutral based on our criteria. It may not be in a position to buy at the moment, but as long as 5K holds, we will continue to look for bullish signs. Ethereum on the other hand is a different story. The structure is clearly bearish and it took out its major support over a month ago. Again we don't argue with it, we simply stand aside until it can prove itself. Most of the alts are in the same position except for 2 that are exhibiting not so obvious signs of strength (shared with members). We continue to carry some Ethereum in our long term portfolio but we discontinued cost averaging into it. Also we were careful not to buy too much which makes the position much easier to hold. Our plan is to rotate out of the under performers and move that capital into Bitcoin when the environment proves to be more favorable. In summary, sentiment provides valuable information when it comes to timing markets. The crowd is always wrong at tops and bottoms and this is certainly not a top. Disagreement is necessary in order for a market to function to begin with. Otherwise there would be no liquidity. We do not pretend to know where the market is going. At S.C., we base our decisions on structure. The market tells us which way probability favors and we listen. When it comes to Ethereum, probability favors weakness, we don't argue, we avoid. Meanwhile Bitcoin is telling a different story and it is good to see the herd exhibiting such extreme negative sentiment. The most entertaining part is when these same people finally become bullish. At 12K.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
ETHUSD: Relative Weakness Means Wait.ETHUSD update: Since the close below 300, this market has proven to be one of the weaker alts. In typical fashion price is now finding resistance upon retesting the 300 psychological level. Any further recovery will likely be lead by BTC which is in a stronger position. At S.C., we shared a swing trade idea to go long BTC with members because we believe that is where the greatest potential is. A common mistake is to buy the most beat up candidates under the logic that they have more room to recover. This is flawed logic because usually, the super low prices are that low for a reason. I published an article (on S.C.) about Litecoin demonstrating how low too low is. There comes a point where it is no longer worth betting on until it can meet specific technical criteria again. This market has also reached that point by our standards. Keep in mind, this does NOT mean we are bearish, or have sold our inventory. All it means is we stop accumulating or looking for short term trades because there are other candidates that offer more favorable probabilities. For example, Bitcoin failed to push the 5750 low while this market and most of the alts blew through their key supports. Bitcoin is showing relative strength and if this space recovers, in theory it should rise the fastest and furthest. Why? It's structure says that it is stronger. This concept of a "too low" filter is a form of protection. ETH has been one of the weakest of the alts. Why continue to allocate capital toward something that has a greater chance of probing even lower, or not recovering to the same degree as other markets that are in a stronger position? In summary, we are not giving up on ETH. We are just no longer adding to inventory until it proves its technical worth. This is a situation where it is better to sacrifice better prices for better chances of a favorable outcome. When managing a portfolio like the one we have, our main priority is to allocate scarce capital into the markets with greatest potential. And that determination is made using market generated information and techniques to interpret it. Not feelings or opinions. Like I wrote in my Bitcoin article earlier, trading probabilities is what facilitates alignment with market intent. When this market shows an improvement in structure and presents a more favorable context, we will have no problem with building inventory further and participating in shorter time frame movements.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
8
ETHUSD: Close Below 300 Points To 250 Support.ETHUSD update: This market has performed the weakest during the recent bout of bearish order flow. The resulting structure points to a higher chance of lower prices. How low? A close below 300 increases the likelihood of testing the 250 area. Keep in mind, BTC is holding up so far. At S.C., we have been monitoring it carefully and have identified a new swing trade long possibility in another alt as a result. We aim to capitalize on the short squeeze if the market presents the opportunity. Andrew published an insightful article recently that presented a comparison of the alts that are on our inventory radar. ETH was clearly an under performer relative to its peers and this affects our decision making over the short term. IF BTC retests 6K or lower, this market is poised to get hammered hard. Current structure points to further weakness which could compromise the 300 psychological support. The 300 level carries a lot of weight for a number of technical reasons. One reason is it's the lower boundary of the largest magnitude .618 support zone (not on chart for simplicity). This equates to the 4980 level on BTC. If price decisively closes below this level, 250 becomes a distinct possibility. The relevance of the 250 area dates back to 2017 when a broad consolidation developed around there. This would be the next area to anticipate stability if 300 is cleared. In summary, when positioning for a bounce, the markets to be in are the ones that got beat up the least. ETH certainly does not fit that criteria. Since we do not short, there is nothing to do but avoid until strength returns. We remain long term bullish on BTC and plan to keep ETH on the radar. We still believe in the merit behind this coin but when the technicals say avoid, we have no problem putting our opinions aside. We will simply hold our inventory and wait for a more favorable environment. If BTC is going to recover, we want to be in the coins that have the greatest potential. We always talk about how opportunity lurks around the ugliest prices, but there does come a point where your resources are better utilized in markets that are much less ugly. When this market stops under performing, we will have no problem continuing our operations. We respect the market and will let it tell us when the time is right.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
6
BTCUSD: How Low Can It Go?BTCUSD update: Price continues back to the 6K psychological support. As long as price stays above 5750, the bullish impulse structure is still intact. We will continue to evaluate price action around the major support area for stability and a reversal. Earlier today on S.C., we texted a swing trade long idea to our members. Thanks to our simple filtering technique, the trade never triggered. This alone prevented a 300 point loss. I bring this up because most inexperienced traders and investors do not realize that consistent performance over time includes a strong defense. This means not only cutting losses short, but avoiding would be losses all together. Anyone can call a profitable trade, but if you can't keep the profit, then what's the point? The only one benefiting is your broker or exchange. Everyone and their cousin is jumping onboard the bear train. The record high short interest alone is a telling sign. We look for these signs of extreme sentiment because this is where long term opportunity is often found. At S.C., we evaluate probabilities first. Keep in mind price is still within a large magnitude .618 support zone that reaches as low as 4983. This means price can test below 5750 and still offer attractive longer term opportunities. Our plan is to continue to accumulate inventory, but with extreme care. Since we have a small position from the mid 7Ks, there is no need to aggressively buy at the moment. Instead we will wait until more stringent criteria is met before making another purchase. Why not get short? Besides not following the herd, we have a strict policy to avoid shorting these markets. The number one reason is leverage. To help minimize risk, we do not use leverage in these markets. Beyond risk of an adverse move, there are risks that most traders do not consider like regulatory risk. Do not forget, the exchanges that facilitate the order flow in these markets regulate themselves. This means they can make up their own rules at their convenience. Perfect example is the OKex's "claw back". This is where the shorts were responsible for paying back the exchanges extremely irresponsible margin liquidation debt. There's nothing worse than being penalized for taking the right side, especially when its to cover someone else's mistake. In summary, we will continue to monitor the extreme sentiment and look to capitalize on the turn when the signs line up. We have no problem waiting, or if the market goes lower. If price manages to go below 5K, we will simply hold off from further accumulation, but we won't sell. We don't have to, because our size is well with the proportions of our portfolio's risk profile. Price being in the middle of the largest support zone points to the higher probability of a reversal. And that is the side that we will prepare for, not react to the obvious. The crowd is usually wrong at tops and bottoms.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
ETHUSD: 300 Possible, But Reversal More Probable.ETHUSD update: Bearish price action leads to break of major support area. Now that key levels like 400 and 374 have been cleared, the broader strength of this market is thrust into question. And the answers can be found when you look back in time. The 300 area, which dates back to November of 2017 was a major break out for tihs market. There is a tendency for old resistance to become new support and if the inversion holds true, 300 area is a possibility to consider. The fact that price broke 374 places it into a very wide reversal zone that has a boundary in the 280s (not on chart for simplicity). This means next 100 points below offer increased potential for a broader reversal. At S.C., we had long swing trades in this market and in LTC which were stopped out. The stop at 386 saved us from an additional 40 points of pain. We still hold inventory in BTC because as ugly as this sell off is, the broader structure is not bearish yet. This entire space is contingent on BTC recovering. And as bearish as the herd is, they are not paying attention to the probability of the location. As long as the low 6Ks or even 5750 holds, the broad bullish impulse structure is still intact. The potential for a bottom to materialize in this area is high. At S.C., we do not make "predictions" like many of the other "experts". Instead we evaluate probabilities, manage risk and adjust to new information. Following the herd is something we do not participate in. Probabilities tell us that the current lows are an accumulation opportunity across the board. Our risk management rules tell us to wait. We intend to buy inventory and take on another swing trade long when the structure lines up. In summary, price can remain weak on the short term, but it is nothing more than an ugly shake out. Just like 18.5K on BTC had the world betting on 30K, these depressed prices are the polar opposite. Even if we could short here, we wouldn't even think of it. It is funny how no one is afraid to buy at 1250, while no one is afraid to sell at 350? History has proven the crowd is usually wrong at extremes and this situation is no exception.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
BTCUSD: Bullish Retrace Likely Off Of Key Support.BTCUSD update: Ugly price action has probed the 6850 area only to find some support so far. There are numerous technical reasons for this support to hold but I will cover two. What makes this formation more challenging to buy is the nature of the wave count. The current bearish price structure appears to be Wave C of a corrective formation. The formation can be considered a Wave 2 correction since price has decisively taken out the 7450 level. Wave 2s can correct 100% of Wave 1 and the broader impulse can still be intact. Typically Wave 2s retrace back to a deeper support like the .618 area which happens to be where this market is at the moment (not on chart for sake of simplicity). This support along with the bullish trend line just below are just two structural arguments for an increased chance of reversal. Price action may be tricky, but it's more about the probability of the location than about single candle formations. I published an article earlier on S.C. that covers more detail as far as the current area in play. We bought more inventory around the mid 7Ks along with some swing trades in the alts. We are simply letting probability play out. If we are wrong, we get stopped out. In summary, as ugly as price continues to look, the location remains very attractive. As long as the broader structure presents a formation of strength, buying into weakness aligns with best practices. The key is to look forward and let probability do its job. If the market continues to sell off, we have our risks defined so we know where we stand either way. As I wrote in my report earlier, the market changes fast, but is always right. Our job is to determine probabilities, define risk and adjust to new information. That is the essence speculating in any financial market. Getting wrapped up in drama, oscillators, or news events are the signature of the herd mentality. One of the first steps to separating yourself from the herd and recognizing the market's intent is to minimize these ineffective behaviors.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
51
ETHUSD: Extreme Price Zone Offers Chance To Buy.ETHUSD update: A healthy retrace has taken this market back to the low 430's. We managed to avoid any premature entries during the period of random price action recently. And this pull back was what we were waiting for. Extreme prices are where probability becomes favorable. As I wrote in my previous S.C. reports, consolidations are areas where randomness is the greatest. Fake outs are commonplace and unless the market can offer a favorable condition, risk could not be justified. No oscillator will help you filter out this type of situation, only best practices. 423 happens to be a reversal zone boundary that has been in place since June. If price cannot get itself together over the next few hours, it is likely to retest this level. Like I wrote in a recent report, first comes the location, next comes the setup. The whole purpose of a setup is to filter out low probability trades. A pin bar is an example of a setup, but as you can see, two candles ago price could not take out the high of that pin bar which negated the long signal. Once a qualifying setup appears, we intend to share a swing trade idea with our followers at S.C. It may be in this market, or one of the others. The great thing about these extreme prices is they also offer an opportunity to accumulate longer term inventory. While looking for swing trades, we are also allocating a portion of our capital to buying small portions of the highest potential coins. Buying into extreme weakness is the best time to employ such a strategy, but it must be done with careful planning. The details of which coins and how much will be shared with our members. Nothing has changed in terms of the structure on the bigger picture. This retrace is nothing more than impatient traders who bought prematurely getting shaken out. We did not predict this move, but we were prepared thanks to following best practices. In summary, patience and not caring about missing a move is how you align yourself with the next move. The market will eventually meet your criteria if you give it a chance. Giving it a chance means letting it rally without you. Missing moves never shrinks your account, but forced trades do. As you can see, the many false starts and fake outs have lead to a more dramatic sell off and this is where the real opportunity is. Best practices are not some complex set of rules. They are based on recognizing the traits of the herd mentality, and taking the proper steps to capitalize on it. The first step is to think against the crowd. This means unplugging yourself from the hype that they consume, and developing a point of view that is based on market structure. This is how you get into the habit of preparing, while they continue to react.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
8
ETHUSD: 423 Support In Sight, But Short Squeeze Potential High.ETHUSD update: Short term price action is poised to test the 423 reversal zone boundary as an inside bar is now present on this time frame. A break of the 454 low would be the signal for further weakness, but as ugly as this market looks, do not lose sight of the broader location. When things look obvious, that usually means everyone is thinking the same thing. In this case, short. If day trading, that's one thing, but if you are expecting a big win, that is a high risk idea in my opinion. Earlier I wrote an article on S.C. which highlighted the broader structures of this market. The 544 to 464 support zone (.618 of the recent bullish swing relative to the 374 low) and the fact that price is still holding way above the 374 historical low. If this broader structure does not break below 374, it will then be establishing a broader higher low formation. This is a place to accumulate for a bigger picture move higher, not sell. 423 is the next reversal zone boundary that presents a high probability location for bullish patterns. At S.C. we will be watching carefully for the opportunity to add to our inventory. In summary, extreme sentiment is an opportunity that only a contrarian will recognize while the herd is busy following indicators that look backwards. Buying into this type of market goes beyond what you will see on a chart and has more to do with intangible concepts like best practices and crowd psychology. I liken this situation to the polar opposite of where this market was in January in terms of sentiment. The crowd was sure ETH was going to 2K in a matter of weeks and instead it went to 374. Now the market is fluctuating near lows but not making lower lows while volume is shrinking which is a not so obvious bullish sign. In situations like this, you do not want to be part of the crowd. Do not be distracted by hype or attention seekers and do not be limited by irrelevant lines on a chart. If you recognize the long term merit of these coins, then these low prices are an opportunity to invest. It is no different than buying name brand items that go on sale.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
BTCUSD: 6K Psychological Support Attractive For? Buyers.BTCUSD update: Bearish momentum is still asserting itself and price may be entering the 5956 reversal zone boundary. Often movements like this will have the attention seekers out in full force screaming that 3K is coming. Pay attention to the price action and nothing else. In terms of probability, price is now in an area very attractive for buying, not selling. The two most important levels at this moment are the 6K psychological support and the 5956 reversal zone boundary. It is the extreme price scenario that I have been writing about. Since the move is quick, their will be many weak hands dumping their coins at the lows. Great time to be looking to buy. Now keep in mind, I do acknowledge the bearish momentum. Lower highs often lead to lower lows, but what makes this situation unique is the broader location. Price is in a broad support zone. 8171 to 4983 is the .618 of the entire bullish move measured from the 150 lows. I have been writing about this area constantly because it should not be overlooked. Even though it it is very wide, and price can move lower within it, it is still a place to be accumulating. The reversal zone boundaries at 5956 and 5669 are very probable if there is not a quick recovery over the next few hours. At S.C. we are managing long term inventory and not selling it. As I wrote previously we have been watching for an opportunity like this to add, but carefully. We are specifically waiting for some form of reversal either off the 6K support, or within the reversal zone boundaries below. Otherwise we wait to see how much lower this market can go. In summary, what has occurred on a chart is now history. Do not make the typical herd mistake of projecting old information forward and instead consider the probabilities. At 18K, we knew the probability of higher prices was limited, and at these levels, we have the opposite scenario. People can say whatever they want or feel, but we only listen to what the market says as it expresses itself in the charts. Extreme prices often lead to new opportunities and at S.C. we are waiting for these to appear. It starts with the level, and then the formations. If criteria is met, you know where we will share it.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
42
ETHUSD: Lower High Established. 544 Support Now In Focus.ETHUSD update: Lower high scenario is unfolding as anticipated. The 625 resistance, although slightly broken, basically held and now the bears are in control. The next support area to watch for any bullish reversals is 544. I have been writing about this retrace. My BTC report on S.C. yesterday talked about the slow grind into the bear zone. It is not that I knew this pull back was going to happen, I knew the probability was high. Knowing this helps me to avoid long swing trades in these markets, especially when they appear to be "breaking out". The 625 level is the .382 resistance relative to the recent bearish structure. Until this level is decisively taken out, this market (along with the rest of the coins) are going to have a hard time making any bullish progress. The question now is: how low do they go and when to buy? The first level we are waiting for at S.C. is the 544 area. 544 to 464 is the .618 support zone relative to the recent bullish structure coming from the 374 low. A reversal candle in this area will more than likely justify a new swing trade idea. If price falls through the mid to lower 500's, then the 471 reversal zone boundary becomes the focus. If price is going to reverse higher, this price area offers the greatest probability for it to follow through. Remember, a bearish trend line is still intact which means short term bullish ideas offer less potential. This is why we exited our recent swing trade so early on S.C. We are not opposed to longs, but they will come with more conservative targets. In summary, be patient and do not mix up strategies. Inventory building is dramatically different from short term swing trading. It is possible to be bullish long term (inventory) and bearish short term (swing or day trading). If you find this confusing, that is normal. It took me many years to differentiate between the two styles. Still confused? Pick one style and stick to it. At S.C., our short term plan is to wait for the 544 to 464 support zone and evaluate price action from there.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
6