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BTCUSD: Continuation Pattern And Next Support Around High 6Ks?BTCUSD update: Price is consolidating across the board and is poised to break lower in my opinion. While bearish momentum dominates in the short term, triangle formations such as the one developing in this market serve as continuation patterns. If I shorted these markets (which I do not), I would be looking for a day trade at the break of 7312. This is just below the low of the previous candle which is an inside bar. What makes situations like this difficult is when you are bullish on the long term. This is why it is so important to separate trade ideas by time frame. This means it is possible to be bearish on a day trade time frame, while simultaneously bullish on a swing or position trade time frame. At S.C., we are long term bullish and are accumulating inventory across a variety of coins during this period of crowd pessimism. There are a number of articles there that explain which coins and our reasoning. Since I am able to separate and categorize my thinking in terms of time frame and strategy, I am able to recognize the short term intent which is not in line with the bigger picture. On the short term, this market is dominated by bears. If price breaks below 7312, I am anticipating the mid 7100's to high 6900's before the next support asserts itself. Keep in mind, price is within a broad support zone that ranges from 8171 to 4983 (.618 support of entire bullish structure relative to the 150 lows). This means it has a lot of room to fluctuate before another low is established. In summary, long term not much has changed. When the crowd hates a market, that is a great time to accumulate at wholesale prices. This does not come without risk though. Someone recently asked me, when you accumulate, where do you place the stop. These are risky instruments that are in a space that is not regulated that same way as traditional markets. If you are in it for the long term, then it is all about risk control though appropriate sizing and the willingness to lose. If you can't lose, you can't win in these markets. As far as the next swing trade long goes, there is no reason to be long at the moment. We will issue a signal for a swing trade long, with specific stop and target on S.C. once the market provides us with a good reason. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
ETHUSD: Bears In Control. Watching 544 Area For Next Support.ETHUSD update: Price has taken out the reversal zone boundary at 614 and has gone as low as the 544 support zone. At this time, there is no swing trade setup present which makes short term decision making simple. As mentioned in other recent articles, environments like this call for the position trade mentality. A setup is a formation, and a pin bar is what provides the confirmation and trigger for entry. A pin bar alone is not a setup, even if it occurs at an attractive level. Candlestick patterns appear randomly throughout a chart. What gives a candlestick any value is the location of where it is appearing and that is where predetermined levels come in. Reversal zone boundaries are levels that define an area where the probability of reversal is greatest. If price goes above or below these zones, and never reversed, it means stand aside and let the momentum play out until price finds the next level. This is what happened at the 614 level. Price did not even hesitate until it found buyers at the 544 to 464 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure). The pin bar tells us that buyers are interested here but there is no formation which means the criteria for a long is not present. Especially now that the pin bar has been established and price gave it back relatively quickly is a sign that bearish momentum is likely to continue which means avoid any swing trade longs until stability proves itself. Environments like this are not completely void of opportunity though. In my Ethereium article on S.C. earlier today, I go on to explain more about the concept of inventory building and fishing for fear with limit orders under the market. Cost averaging in these markets is similar to stacking gold and silver coins. In summary, unless the current candle closes strong (unlikely), it is within reason to expect price to retest the 530s or possibly lower. The 544 to 464 support zone is wide and it may take some time (week or two) before this market can stabilize. This will obviously require the entire coin market to find buyers since they all pretty much move together. Do not get sucked into the pessimism which this community is up to its ears in. If you are a long term believer, then fearful markets offer wholesale price opportunities to build an inventory. Embrace the risk and think independently and do not use margin. Ask yourself this: if you bought a gold bar for $1300 and the price goes to 1K, are you going to dump it? If yes, I know someone who will buy it from you.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20
GBPUSD: Bullish At 1.3329 If Price Can Do This One Thing.GBPUSD update: Bearish momentum has been reluctant but this pair has persisted lower. Price is now nearing a very significant support level of 1.3329. Being over a hundred pips away means there is a lot of room for messy price action, but we are still looking for a swing trade long setup. 1.3329 is the .382 of the bullish structure that is relative to the low made in December of 2016. This means this level carries a lot of weight, but also means the margin of error around the level is very wide. Price can break below by 50 pips or more and then find buyers, so expecting precision in this area is not the best idea. Also keep in mind, if this bearish momentum persists, it is within reason for price to retest the 1.3051 reversal zone boundary. The point being there is a lot of room for this market to breath if it is going to find a short term bottom. This bigger picture view helps to highlight the potential for day trade shorts since that is what momentum favors. In terms of swing trades though, risk of reversal starts to increase dramatically especially below 1.3329. This means do not short and hold. At S.C., we are evaluating this situation for bullish reversal patterns which are nonexistent at the moment. The reason is if price action can construct a reversal formation, the potential is high since the first target is at the 1.3770 area which is the .382 of the current bearish structure. We are not looking to capture 400 pips, but a quarter of that is within reason, and worth it if we can keep the risk at 50 pips or less. The EURUSD is also in a similar situation, and we are evaluating opportunities in the Gold market as well (obviously a play on the Dollar). Check S.C. for recent articles on how we are navigating these markets.
by MarcPMarkets
7
LTCUSD: Wholesale Prices In Play But Only For Contrarians.LTCUSD update: This swing trade has been stopped out at 123.50. This broad market weakness is what scares weak hands out of their positions, and now that this position is stopped out, we will be looking for the next opportunity to buy back in once stability returns. A few days ago I wrote an article about Litecoin and issued a trade call on S.C. The entry was a limit order at 133.50 and the stop 123.50. I issued this call while it was trading near 140. The scenario that this market is presenting at the moment is the reason why I placed a limit order under the market. I did not know if this retest of the low was going to happen, I just wanted to better positioned in case it did. This stop out is just a cost of doing business, and it eliminates exposure to a broad sell off (price went as low as 116). Keep in mind, the stop order is specifically for the risk presented by this particular swing trade and has no bearing on any long term positions that I have for this market. The 132.72 and 125.68 levels are reversal zone boundaries. They present a high probability area where price is more likely to reverse, but there is no guarantee it will. This outcome is part of the risk that is taken when placing a limit order under the market and not waiting for particular confirmation. Keep in mind the sub 125 levels are what I like to call wholesale prices. It is like when your favorite store puts inventory up for sale because they need to get rid of it. These lows are attractive prices, but in order to get back in for another swing trade long, a reversal pattern will need to appear. There is no reason to panic or be stressed out by this price action. Remember when a market looks its worst, that is often the best time to buy. Think like a contrarian, not like the crowd. I wrote in an earlier analysis about this market that the 105 to 100 level is really where cause for concern is relevant. The 100 level is not only a psychological support, but a break below would negate the bullish Elliott Wave count on the broader time frame. Even in a scenario where price goes below 100, the only thing it would mean for me is not to buy more. Since I do not use margin in these markets, I look at them more like stacking physical gold or silver, which means you do not let go of inventory at lows. Let the weak hands blow out their positions and react for whatever reason. BTC went to 6K a few months back, only to climb back to 9K. As long as these markets are not pushing any major lows, it is just a matter of time before they find stability. One important point that Andrew pointed out in one of his recent BTC articles was that in order to benefit from sell offs like this, you must believe in the future of these coins in order to add to your inventory with confidence. If you are in this for a quick profit, then you are better off waiting for a swing trade which has precisely defined risk and not cost averaging. We are going to be watching carefully for opportunities to add to portfolio positions as well as for new swing trades once stability reestablishes itself across these markets.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
14
BTCUSD: Stability Required Before Next Long, Watch And Wait.BTCUSD update: Price pushes through the 8626 support level to find some hesitation at the 8350 reversal zone boundary. This area is a much more attractive place to look for longs, but taking a swing trade is contingent on what type of reversal formation appears. Momentum is now bearish and even though price is in the vicinity of support levels, it is reasonable to expect this sell off to continue until it proves otherwise. In order to do that, it needs to form a clear reversal candle such as a pin bar, engulfing, inside bar, etc. And further evaluation such as reward/risk can be figured out at that point, but for now, we are steering clear of any new long swing trades until this market can prove stability. Overall our perspective at S.C. is bullish and the current retrace is normal and healthy. If this short term weakness continues, price can reasonably revisit the 7700's or even lower before showing signs of reversal. This is not a prediction, just a possibility that can materialize if this momentum does not change soon. Information like this is what helps to minimize premature entry while the market continues to sell. Currently, the next minor resistance that can serve as a bullish target once stability returns is the 9359 to 9633 zone (.618 of current bearish swing). This zone will adjust lower if this market continues to push lows. In summary, now that price is interacting with predetermined levels like the 8350 reversal zone boundary (relative to the 8650 low) it is time to pay close attention to the formations that materialize here. And since momentum is clearly bearish, it is a good idea to be more selective as far as what to accept as a reversal worth entering. At the moment, there is nothing to do except watch and wait. If an appropriate setup appears, risk can then be measured and possibly a swing trade triggered. Keep an eye out for updates on S.C. because that is where trade signal details will appear. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
29
ZEC 4 hourZEC price has been legging down and each low as well as making lower highs as seen by the red boxes. As for the yellow boxes the one on the left shows us where the price tested the Kumo support, breaking to the downside. After that low was found the price tried to retest at the 2nd box and was unable to penetrate the cloud. RSI and RVI are both moving in a bearish direction which would confirm that price trajectory in the wedge and a possible bounce from the 0.236 fib level.
by SpektreSignal
4
GBPUSD: Good Level For Reversal? Candles Need To Agree.GBPUSD update: Price has pushed below the bullish trend line and has tested the 1.3965 previous low. It went as low as 1.3918 which is not far from the 1.3883 reversal zone boundary. This is an area that I am watching for swing trade longs. Even though you can make an argument that the current price is within the middle of a very broad range, the fact that there is a reversal zone boundary nearby carries more weight. Understanding context is what allows me to see the greater chance of a bullish retrace in this area. Any retest of the low 1.3900s or 1.3880 area is the prime area to watch for reversal signals such as a bullish pin bar, or engulfing pattern, etc. The nearest resistance serves as a reasonable swing trade target. 1.4095 is the .382 of the current bearish swing and offers an adequate target if a long signal is taken. Keep in mind, a trade setup is not complete unless a trigger and stop are defined and at this point neither are clear. If price continues through the reversal zone boundary, I would avoid any swing trade longs until stability returns to this market. Remember the bigger picture (Elliott Wave chart is on S.C.) implies weakness which means long trades offer less potential in my opinion. More detailed analysis to follow in the analysis area of S.C.
by MarcPMarkets
1
ETHUSD: Retrace Offers Insight Into Short Squeeze.ETHUSD update: Across the board these coins have attempted to retrace as they follow BTC's lead. Unlike BTC, this market has managed to break a bearish trend line. This is the first step toward change, but just like BTC, must meet certain criteria before it is reasonable to expect a more significant bullish move. Clearly, everything is following BTC and all have similar price action. Now that the first bearish trend line is broken, the next thing that needs to happen is the break of the 451 level (.382 of recent bearish swing). As long as this level is not compromised, bearish momentum is still in play. This is why I emphasized in my previous BTC report that it is risky to buy the initial lower high, unless you don't mind taking some pain. The pain comes in the form of the next retrace or test to see if the bears are at full capacity (market establishes a lower low). If a new low cannot be established, then that is a sign that a short squeeze is likely. Being that the short interest is at an all time high in BTC, (the crowd is never right at tops and bottoms), it is just a matter of catalyst that can turn this market around fast. Even if the 451 level does not break first, this market can still present a double bottom or failed low situation which would offer great buying opportunities in my opinion. The 374 support (old resistance/new support) and the 344 reversal zone boundary are the levels to watch for these two bullish scenarios respectively. A decent short squeeze can take this market back up to the low 500's to test the broader bearish trend line which can serve as a good potential target to measure reward/risk from. In summary, buying into lows of a bearish environment can be tricky because there is no way to know if the low is in or if this market is going to push a new low. No matter what the trend, a retrace always presents a test that can be used to gauge the strength or lack of strength of the participants that are affecting price the most. Keep in mind, not all new lows are created equal. A failed low is a condition where price goes slightly lower which makes it look like the trend is continuing, only to reverse quickly which is often a sign of hidden strength and means that there are not enough new bears joining the party. Also remember that a bottom is a process, not an isolated event, which means patience often pays in these situations. If this market is bottoming here, there will be plenty of opportunities to get in at attractive reward/risk ratios. Questions and comments welcome (to see a very broad view of this market with a wave count, see my chart on S.C.)
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
14
ETHUSD: Momentum Bearish But Great Time To Accumulate.ETHUSD update: This market has been relatively weak compared to the other major coins but that does not mean it has lost its long term merit. In fact, these are great prices for getting into a top coin that can be used especially for investing into much higher potential alts which are very cheap at the moment. In this market, price has fallen through all major supports, broken below all the reversal zones, and is still restrained by a well defined bearish trend line. Momentum is still bearish and even though price action is attempting to recover along with the rest of the coins in this space, it will require some patience to work with. The 374 support level is one that goes back to the previous year that happens to be an old resistance / new support area and buyers have proven to be present there. The problem is since momentum is still generally bearish, this may just be another pause before testing lower prices. There is no way to know for sure. Even in the face of such bearish momentum, I think this market offers a great opportunity to accumulate a top token that can be used to invest into other much higher potential alts. Which ones? You will have to visit S.C. to read about the ones that we like, but the question is when do you buy this coin? Just like in anything else, there is an aggressive way and a conservative way. The aggressive way is more attractive IF you are flat. People that are just getting into the game now and missed out on all the pain have a chance to buy at extreme whole sale prices. Sure prices can go lower, but I think the bigger picture reward/risk is now biased to the bullish side. Even if you are in and holding from much higher prices, it will depend on your comfort level since you are taking pain already. Buying at these lows goes beyond technical analysis and is based more on the long term view of these markets in general. In my opinion, the lower this market goes, the more of an opportunity to accumulate and build a nice inventory. The conservative way is to forfeit these low prices and look to buy after the bearish trend lines get taken out.The first trend line is around the 420 area. That scenario would signal that the bearish momentum is running out of steam. The second sign you can wait for is a close above 451 (.382 of recent bearish swing). The benefit you gain from waiting for these less attractive prices is that momentum is more likely on your side. Less pain, more gain. This is a better way to go if you have been sitting on a position and would like to wait for more favorable conditions to cost average further. In summary, on a short term technical basis, this market does not look as stable as the others, but if you are looking to use this coin as a means to invest into others, then your timing does not have to be perfect. The best thing you can do is define your goals for this type of investment which will help shape your strategy as these markets eventually stabilize and make their way back. The least effective thing you can do is react to dramatic price action, or worse over exaggerated news which has no bearing on where these markets are going in the future. Success in these markets sums up to your appetite for risk. If you are afraid to lose, you open yourself up to a greater possibility of losing. If you can afford to lose and accept it, you open yourself up to a greater possibility of winning. In other words, scared money never wins.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
10
Litecoin Short Term TA Day 19Hello everybody. I apologize for my long absence I have been extremely busy. I hope I can continue now making daily TA's of Litecoin. I have not been watching LTC / crypto closely for the last few weeks and I have sad to see we are still stuck in bearish territory and especially LTC stuck in the low $130's. We are approaching critical support areas right now. If we dip below $125, then we have broken our main support from last huge drop to $106. If this happens, then it is possible we can see the mid $110's again, and even a retest of that price point. For the last two days, we have just been bouncing off our support and resistance. This is a classic pattern of lower highs and Lower lows. If we continue like this, then we can see a key test of our main support sometime tomorrow / early Friday. If we stick to this pattern, we can expect a quick bounce off of the upper $127's / lower $128. We will then see a bounce back up into the $134's, in which we will fall back down to testing our main support. To break out of this falling pattern, we need to first break the last resistance touched, which was $139.20. If that occurs, be aware of a possible bull trap, but if we have the volume following it, and manage to break $144.50, then the pattern can be confirmed broken. I really do not want to see our main support broken, but this can be a great buying opportunity because if it is broken, I don't see it staying that low for long at all. Remember to keep an eye on on the Stoch Rsi and the BB to give you an idea on which way LTC / other cryptos might be heading depending what time period you are looking at. Please check out my previous day TA's in the related ideas section and like/follow me if you would like to stay updated on my daily TA's. Thank you everyone.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by whatsinthecupsir
BTCUSD: Pushing Lower, But Don't Overlook Major Support.BTCUSD update: Price has broken below the minor support around the 8400 level and has gone as low as the 7800 area. Is this market a short? I don't know about you, but I do not care how weak a market looks, I will not short a major support area. I recently took a long swing trade on top of my longer term position at 8815 and got stopped out at the 8200 area. Why did I not hold it as part of my longer term inventory? The answer is I am looking to keep my risk under control. I still intend to get long again, especially around the current level, BUT confirmation must appear otherwise no trade. I do not trade these markets on margin, so I cannot short. And like I have written previously, if I was able to short, I would like do it on a day trade time frame, especially within a major support zone that price is fluctuating within at the moment. The 8093 level is where price is hesitating and I am not surprised since it is the most recent reversal zone boundary based on the 8271 low. On top of that, 7776 is another reversal zone boundary that is relevant to the 8342 low which price seems to be reacting to as well. Any bullish reversal patterns that unfold within this area, I will be looking to get into another swing trade long. In summary, these are slow and increasingly indecisive markets. Price is having a hard time putting together a solid rally off of this major support level , but that does not mean it is going dramatically lower as many believe. Momentum is generally bearish and a major change will not be valid until the longer term bearish trend line is compromised (way up at 9600). This is why managing inventory in conditions like this can be more effective than putting on swing trades. I have enough inventory and only looking to take on more risk (swing trades) if the signals appear. Managing inventory means averaging into a position that you are comfortable with if the market goes back to the lows. Remember you want to buy when a market looks it worst, and sell when it looks its best. If price pushes the 6K low, I will be looking for a failed low opportunity to buy as well. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24