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EURUSD 4HA Pullback to the 50 fibonacci level / new channel top expected. If there is a break out of channel & the 61.8 fib I believe price will pull up to 1.18500-1.18650 to complete the right shoulder of the daily H&S Pattern. Multiple rejections & triple top to 1.20500 & break out of uptrend channel signaled a reverse of trend. I expect euro to lose more strength as it looks like across many euro pairs for this upcoming week. Will be watching price action once reaching the top of its new pink channel. Trade with care!
Short
by Profound_Ambition
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Room For Lows.BTCUSD Update: Since this market is leading the entire coin world, it is a good idea to gain some perspective on where this market can go in order to better evaluate the risk of your positioning in the alt coins. Let's begin with the current momentum since the recent price spike may have some people confused. The push back up to 3875 is just barely above the 3723 resistance (.382 of the bearish swing), and now price is retracing. A retrace to test the low is not unusual and can possibly offer a buying opportunity. The key support area for this scenario is 3319 to 3171. If price can reverse in this area, then a broader higher low structure will be in place and offer a short term (swing trade) opportunity with a conservative target. If this scenario unfolds, I expect the alt coins to follow. Reversal formations within the support area are the key requirement in order to define risk. What happens if price falls through? Great question I'm glad you asked. If price pushes below 3171, then it is likely to retest the 2980 low. If that breaks, then that opens the door to a retrace that can revisit the 2497 level which is the bottom of the zone. This support zone is the .618 of the entire previous bullish swing and would be a convenient level for a broad Wave 2 to bottom. More on Elliott Wave in a moment. If this market presents the scenario where this support zone breaks, the next support is 1930. Yes it sounds a little extreme, but it is the 2.618 extension projected from the 5000 high. I am NOT saying that the market will test this low, but IF it presents this scenario, then there will be some great investment opportunities in the alt coins in my opinion. In terms of Elliott Wave, this appears to be a 3 3 5 correction with the current spike being 4 of C which means there is a greater chance that Wave 5 of C unfolds and as we have seen , Wave 5s have a tendency to extend. That is why I mention 1930 as a possibility. 1930 also happens to be the bottom of the previous Wave 4 when the market was still in the bullish structure if you look further back on the chart. Within this bearish context, it is very important to wait for confirmations and have conservative short term targets for swing trades. Investing, as I have emphasized before is a different strategy that contains different risk parameters. If you are investing for the long term, then you must understand the risks, and see new lows as an opportunity and not have to worry so much about precise entries. I am using this chart as a reference point for both swing trading and investing. As a swing trader, I am waiting to see if this market can stabilize somewhere within the 3319 to 3171 area I and will be watching cheaper coins like ETH and LTC for short term trades with conservative targets. As an investor, I am just watching to see if this market pushes lows so that I can purchase some lower priced coins for the long run which means I am buying to hold. It is a completely different strategy compared to the short term trades that I write about. In summary, BTC is clearly leading the alt coins as evidenced by the similar chart structures across the board. If you are not trading BTC outright, in a sense you are still exposed to its price action by purchasing any alt coin, so it doesn't hurt to have some perspective on this market. Being that we are in a corrective C Wave, this market is more likely to retest the current low, if not push into lower territory before the bearish momentum exhausts itself. If a higher low forms, there may be a short term buying opportunity, but as far as going back to 5000, that is not happening until this market builds more of a base. In my opinion, this correction is a broad Wave 2 and when the bottoming process is complete (which can take weeks) that will eventually be the beginning of large Wave 3 and those of you who have been reading my analysis consistently should know what that means by now. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Fear Leads To Price Spike.ETHUSD Update: Price went sub 200 only to push back up to 250 in a matter of hours, along with all the coin markets. Now you know why I suggested considering a small position as an investment. The bearish momentum is not over yet, and now these markets need time to build up some supportive structures again so I am not anticipating new highs any time soon. The initial spike back up is an interesting piece of information. BTC went below 3k only to spike back up to 3500. This type of price action often signals the beginning of a change in momentum, but not enough evidence to start opening swing trade longs. If you read my previous report, I wrote that investing small wasn't a bad idea because there was extreme fear in the market. Sure it got slightly more extreme, but if you believe in the technology (which has not changed), then investing when everyone is hating these coins is the best time. As I wrote, there is no way of pin pointing the bottom. It is a function of understanding your risk and starting small (without leverage). I don't think these markets are out of the clear yet and still have potential to test lows again. Just remember investing is for long term and NOT a swing trade strategy. At this point I am watching for evidence of stability (for a swing trade) and that would be in the form of a higher low at the new minor support at the 220 to 210 area within the broader 230 to 190 area. A failed low here would offer a short term buying opportunity providing that BTC is also stable. Keep in mind since this market has revisited this broader support area which is the .618 of the previous bullish swing, the broader price action will most likely be range bound and I plan to use very conservative targets for any trades that I enter. The new resistance area is the 271 to 291 zone which is related to the .618 of the overall bearish swing. This market needs to clear that in order to show that there is any possibility of retesting the mid to high 300s. So this resistance will serve as a profit target (if the market offers that opportunity). If the market retests this resistance sooner (it is almost there) this area will serve as a level for a possible lower high which can lead to new lows if BTC falls apart again. We just have to wait and see. As far as buying now, the risk is too high. In order to know if a bottom is truly in place, price needs to retest the lows. That is why this price spike, as impressive as it is, is not the time to get long. The retest may lead to new lows, or it may be shallow, there is no way to know until after it unfolds. This is why it is so important to define your scenarios ahead of time so that you have something to measure against instead of being sucked into the herd mentality. In summary, investing and trading are more about psychology than anything else. Price action analysis helps to uncover clues about the crowd mentality so that probabilities and risk can be better determined before taking a position. The purpose of my analysis is to capitalize on short term price fluctuations and I have to repeat this because I realize many new traders do not understand the difference between what I am writing about and buying to hold for the long term. My plan at the moment is to wait for the next retrace and if the market revisits the 220 area, then I evaluate for buy signals for a swing trade. Otherwise I stay flat. There will be plenty of opportunities to get long. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
45