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NTCT: Island Gap PotentialThere is an interesting phenomenon that occurs often: when a gap down of this size occurs, followed by a bottoming action and a large white candle forms, this often becomes an island gap. HFTs that gapped the stock down gap it up again. The fact that the gap down candle is a huge white candle for this chart indicates that the gap down is below fundamental values and Dark Pools were the buyers against the HFT selling. The drop in Accumulation/Distribution at that time was smaller funds dumping which often triggers Dark Pool TWAPs. NASDAQ:NTCT has a high Percentage of Institutional Holdings at this time and it's a lower-priced stock in a pricey market.
NASDAQ:NTCTLong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Buy TGT @ $113-$114 till 03/09/2020Buy Target Corp at current price of $113-$116 (Avg $114) and hold it approximately till 09.03.2020 to take at $125.0 (+9,6%). Reason of the exact date of 03/09/2020 - is the Avg expected Value (Return) equal to 0.21% daily. So in average the stock will grow by 0.21% daily. I am sure the stock will rise because of the next reasons: 1. sustainable large company one of the leaders in the industry in USA 2. the price plunge is due to the company slightly less than expected forecast for upcoming 4q statement 3. the stock is considered as defensive assset (a.k.a. safe heaven) 4. the stock price is very cheap Although, the price can slump down to $105 per share, so my recommendation is to take more on that level. If it slumps to $105, the average price will be $109,5 stop-loss at $103 (-6%), take profit at $125 (+14%). Have a Good Luck!
NYSE:TGTLong
by Dolmatin1919
APPLE: BULLISH VOL CROSS AND SUPPLY SIDE; BUT DEMAND DEFICIENCYVolume Apple Volume traded up for the first time in 4 days on thursday, increasing 25% from 20m to 26m, whilst this may be considered bearish - as increased selling, it is important to not 26m is still 35%-40% below the 4wk and 6month average. Volume cannot fall forever and we have been trading at extremely low volumes all week, so given these facts, a modest rise from 20m-26m is still bullish IMO given that apple traded at 46m last week, so even at 26m now we are still significantly depressed on the supply side - though the demand deficient problem of the recent times remained rife in the stock yesterday, where the stock fails to attract new liquidity, which is all the stock needs to ask the price up given the perfect, low supply environment apple is currently in. Historical and Implied Vols We continue to have a bullish view from a vols perspective as implied traded flat yesterday, up only 10bps at 21.02. Also, a bullish cross pattern emerged between HV and IV, where HV is crossing lower then IV. The shorter period 5/10 HVs are already trading below IV, but yesterday the 20/30 period HV also made a bid to make a move below IV in the coming days. As i have highlighted from the last bull cycle on the graph, when the 4 HVs traded bid and started falling (to eventually trade below IV), Apples price was bullish, rising over 10usd, such interactions between HV and IV is historically highly correlated bullish behaviour. In april as you can see it was Earnings uncertainty that caused the relationship to unnaturally break down - in previous bulls, the HV < IV has allowed bull runs to continue for several months before. Vol correlation with apples price also traded flat remained above the -90% and maintaining my bullish view with the indicator. Evaluation Much of same from apple, where we are witnessing a perfect "bull run" environment (low all round vols, low volume, low price) but the demand side remains the issue - likely due to apples poor mirco-econ environment of poor confidence/ fear regarding their future performance and the ever looming July Earnings, which is artificially keeping demand low for apple. I dont expect any significant upside today from apple, given fridays are normally the worst day for stocks due to the "end of week" sell-off that occurs as some money managers cannot hold open risk on their books over the weekend. IMO i expect apple to close 99.2, higher if we are lucky. If we dont have a bull run soon, we may not see one until august, given that i expect apples price to trade low/ down in the 3 weeks before earnings as investors remember Aprils tragic sell-off and try to avoid a similar event (even if it is unlikely).
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
APPLE 4% ALGO SPIKE? LOWER VOLS & VOLU; HIGHER NEGATIV VOLS CORRAlgo spike 4% to $101.8? At 18:19 BST Apple stock surged from 99. to $101.8 and back again all within a minute. It was Likely to be algo driven OR a data/exchange error - though no news outlets reported either or offered any other speculation. Though $101.8 is the closest near by resistance strong hold for apple, so it would be a weird coincidence for a "data error" to trade to that price - equally as possible none the less. IMO, because there was little volatility after the event and also because Apple is now struggling to break the $100 i think it was probably a data/exchange error. If it was an actual demand induced algo spike, the stock would have experienced signifcant price volatility after the event as much of the markets TP/SL levels would have caused a large wave of stochastic automated buying/selling as positions are closed out. Further, if the spike was real, apple should have been able to trade above $100 easily today; 1. As $101.8 would be a clear bull target level. 2. as the spike would have removed all of the $100TP selling pressure last night - meaning there would be little volume left to continue long squeeze selling today (which annoyingly has been the case). Volume Apple Volume fell significantly on Monday by 40% to 23m vs 39m (1month av.) and 43m (6month av.). In the first half of trading today, volume was also 7% down from yesterdays first half at 11.23m vs 12.0m - signalling today may continue the bullish trend. This is Bullish IMO as it shows that at these prices holders are not willing to sell their AAPL risk at these prices, as they seek higher prices before they offer higher supply, hence volume stays low and the stock trades with a bid bias - hence the gap up at the open today - illustrating the supply & demand disequilibrium caused by low supply side liquidity and maintained order demand. Volatility & Apple vs VXAP Correlation We continue to have a bullish view from a vols perspective as vols dropped yesterday despite an algo driven spike to $101.8 (4%). Apples CBOE VXAP continued to sell off, closing yesterday at 21.64 from 21.73 Friday. Also the correlation between APPLE and its Implied volatility index continued to fall deeper into negative territory - surpassing levels seen in the last bull run to $112 which peaked at 90% (92% to 94%), This reinforces the bullish volatility signal - as historically, a higher negative relationship sets the best environment for Apple price growth.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by QuantumLogicTrading