Get started

LOWS

Gold and DXY - What does 94+ imply? "Look for the arch in March"Gold has been in consolidation since the summertime highs. The fundamental picture for gold is the same and strengthening. Lots of noise about the rising dollar and the 'end-of-days' for precious metals. While there are many obvious cases for Gold fundamentals, we are often presented with the binary view (ST speculator noise) where DXY and GOLD have an inverse relationship. Instrumental correlation with gold in fact changes over time, for example since 2019 TLT and US10Y have been much more closely correlated with GOLD, but we won't dismiss the psychological impact of a rising DXY. So here is where I think we are based on past patterns. Looking for a rising DXY in a gold bull market phase takes us back to 2010, analogous to where we are now assuming (somewhat) symmetrical bull markets. This window shows a period of initial decline into support and then strengthening along with the DXY. This 181-day window for this phase to play out can be applied to where we are now with some success. From an initial turn-up of the DXY and the simultaneous drop from highs, we bottom this first decline in early March at NOV LOW levels. This test of NOV 30 LOWS in EARLY MARCH (1764 around the ~5th?) tests the 10yr arc support, before a similar rise of equal value brings us back to testing the summer highs and beyond. The DXY can continue to rise, which may initiate the sell-off into support before resuming the up-trend in spring into summer. I think this early March bottom is supported by the similar NOVEMBER/MARCH 2012 (Yellow) resistance tests at the same level, now flipped to support. I'm not a big believer in seasonality for gold, as much as I would say, CORN, but the NOV/MAR 1764 symmetry is noted! One concern with this may be that 94 on the DXY (above the yellow horizon in the lower pane) is a much higher, more psychological level than was present in 2010. A rise from current levels into and through 94 is marked out in purple April 2018 window by a similar selloff and eventual resumption. This is the most I've felt like writing here, maybe my presentation skills need to catch up with my thinking. But let's sum up by saying: "LOOK FOR THE ARCH IN MARCH" - March 5th 1764 support, bull off double bottom to test highs in July BONUS: This model gives an initial PT for OCT 2022 of 2648. But let's get through March first. Zoom out, chill out. Peace.
TVC:GOLDLong
by ptero1492
Bitcoin is a beast!Bitcoin today never closed a 1h or 4h candle below 51k, which i think is very impressing at these high levels. The only thing the sellers achieved today was a higher low (again). The sell offs seem to get bought up faster and it seems almost imposible for BTC to even test the heartline off the parallel channel again. Under this condition i think its very likely we gonna see a test of the supply line of the channel rather sooner than later. Like i mentioned in my other post i believe if we see the top off the channel i think BTC probably gonna break it like in the run up mid december where it broke the broadening wedge and flipped its supply line into its demand line which was brutally bullish and BTC never saw prices below this demand line ever again. i normaly dont like to chart on the small timeframes but in this case it helps to understand the behaviour of some altcoins like (comp or maker) which show similar behaviour and just dont want to take off. Its also a reason for the declline of positive momentum on the 4h MACD histogram which i believe is not gonna show red in the next couple 4h close's and probably gonna just pick up positive momentum again because on the 1h the negative momentum is allready waining and now showing potential hidden bullish divergence (which seems to be the pattern of the month) if bitcoin can stay above this downsloping trendline which was a supply line before (also visible on the 4h), the likelihood of a retest of the recent ATH is very high. Especially with the 4h closing a bullish engulfing after this day of consolidation. btw. I am still in my long trade that i opened at the 49k level and as long as bitcoin closes 4h candles or even 1h above 51k i am not thinking about closing this trade. Lets see how this plays out :)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by luyestefan
1
WHERE DO WE STAND WITH GBPUSD??I felt like posting this so that some of the traders on here can see where we are in terms of the quarters of the year. Its important to see this because around yearly, monthly, weekly, and daily highs and lows those prices are sensitive! We can see that the market ran out the high that was created in the beginning of the first quarter and dropped. As of now. I have my bias for GU for this upcoming week I will post it in a few moments. I recommend traders mark up there charts like this it's helpful to know where you stand in terms of quarters and so on. Enjoy.
by JohnnWick
2
FIOBTC Double Bottom| Liquidity Run| Dynamic Resistance| PAEvening Traders, Today’s analysis, FIOBTC trading towards a probable double bottom structure, confirmation will be on the break of dynamic resistance. Points to consider, - PA approaching trade location - Equal lows (liquidity run) - Key dynamic resistance - Oscillators over-extended - Swing high target FIOBTC’s price action is approaching a key trade location where a pivot bullish is probable. This will establish a double bottom in the market structure. The equal lows increases the probability of a liquidity run, price action closing above with a wick will be indicative. Breaking the dynamic resistance will confirm trend reversal with the immediate target swing high. Oscillators both are overextended reaching oversold conditions; this indicates an oversold bounce being probable as price reaches liquidity. Overall, in my opinion, FIOBTC breaking dynamic resistance will allow for a valid long into swing high. Price action is to be used upon discretion/ management of trade. What are your thoughts? Thank you for following my work! And remember, “If you can learn to create a state of mind that is not affected by the market’s behavior, the struggle will cease to exist.” – Mark Douglas
Long
by AzizKhanZamani
1
USD/CHF Trade IdeaHello and welcome to my Trade Idea of the currency pair USD/CHF. Let's start with the Top Down Analysis. Monthly: Since march 2019 there is a downtrend with stagnation from july to november 2019. On december 2019 there was an imense bearish price action with a huge candle that closed under the previous lows. Weekly: We see on the weekly timeframe a beautiful downtrend. Daily: Since March 10, the price has skyrocketed, then he corrected himself and now we have an opportunity to jump on the trend. H4: Here we see a counter trendline and expect a push to the lows. Have a nice day.
Short
by Bullandbeartrading
1
Lower levels ahead of BTC HalvingWhat happened? 1) Economic uncertainty due mostly to Coronavirus bans 2) War on Oil price between Saudi Arabia and Russia...pushed uncertainty on the stock market and the wave went all over.. 3) BTC halving means that the mining process will be more and more centralised. Smaller miners started to sell and so did other investors out of uncertainty. What will happen? BTC price will probably retest lower levels up to 2019 lower lows. Investors will move their money into cryptos if 1) Prices are low enough. 2) No better alternatives (i.e.: Oil). 3) BTC shows upwards constant movements. Very hard to make predictions about when, but I think that we still have to go lower to be able to see some consistent movements, so let's wait next Monday and see if anything happened in between.... In the meantime enjoy life with a glass of good wine... Best Regards
BShort
by RobRobin
How I see the future of BitcoinThe last days have shown Bitcoin is still in the same bear market it has been in since the all time high. Every pump in between is just a correction (see: Elliott Corrective Waves) and has nothing to do with the start of a new bull market. A new bull market will start when most people have forgotten about cryptos and want nothing to do with them. That's what a bottom is - a period in time where there is close to no interest in the given asset class (see: BTC 2015 - 2016). I see the start of the new bottom at around 2021 - the start of a new bullrun in around 2023. Many people (mostly those who are emotionally bonded to BTC or want to get rich asap) see this theory as impossible or call it the death of Bitcoin - just like the last time Bitcoin went through a bubble in 2014 and did almost a 90% retrace. To me this is a normal thing to happen in cryptos so I would not worry, quite the contrary. The faster we reach the bottom the faster it will recover. Good luck to everyone involved!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by chrzky
9
How to find the right price SUPPORTS and RESISTANCESPrice breakout happens! Now what? As we all know supports and resistances are the key levels where the price stops, turns or does some floating before making the next big move. Usually, the challenge is to find the right ones where those kind of events will happen. You can see clearly from the graph that there are some key indications to take into consideration and so you can find the relevant ones: - Previous highs/lows - Fibonacci levels - Highest volumes As we all know previous resistance becomes the next support. btw: What would you say the next short term BTC support and resistance are? Follow me and click like if you would like to see more educational posts like this. You can find some of them in the links to related ideas bellow this post. I will proceed with educational material if I happen to find that it has enough interest from the crowd. Take care and hope you can make more educated guesses with the help of great technical analysis. "Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime."
KRAKEN:BTCUSDEducation
by Samoto
3
Could this be where the market is heading?We seem to be going through the same emotional ride as we did before in the last bubble but with just less participation and news coverage. There are now existential threats no longer round the corner, but actually upon us, Libra and regulations are not good for crypto price appreciation. Adoption, if it ever actually happens as is currently predicted, is still miles away. Coins are worth 10's, 100's of millions or even billions in magic internet money that can be converted into fiat (if you get there first) with no product and no customers. Libra has brought crypto to the forefront of the agenda for world governments and pretty much none of the commentary is positive. What if we are setting up to put in the exact same pattern as before and head to new lows like this. I welcome contrary opinions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Delacy
12
GBPJPY - Potential for upward move?Looking at the charts, the market has come to find yearly lows for the XXX/JPY crosses in the most recent weeks, with most pairs having pulled back away from the lows. I.e NZDJPY & AUDJPY, and could be an indicative move from the other crosses. GBPJPY, has found some support at 135.170, around the area the flash crash closed above, which begs the question of currently trading in a demand zone. Price over history has bounced off this level and pushed back above 140. I am of the opinion GBP is due for a correction, as you will note in my other post on GBPUSD. Which is also showing the potential for an upside move. Wait and watch. Targets are as per the chart. DM or comment if you have any questions. Remember Pippin' ain't easy, so watch your Risk Management
Long
by myronemoyo
2